My best guess:
I’m most confident in my top-three, but even that could come into question if Ole Miss and Mississippi State are even better than I think they will be. But, here goes…
1 South Carolina
2 LSU
3 Tennessee
I think it drops off a bit after the top three, then again after 4 and 5
4 Ole Miss
5 Mississippi State
6 Alabama
7 Texas A&M
I’m a bit shaky about the 8-10 grouping because I think Georgia and Arkansas could break into the group above and (gulp) Vandy could go either up or down from where I have them
8 Georgia
9 Arkansas
10 Vanderbilt
If Florida or Missouri are even a little bit better than I think, they could move into the grouping above
11 Missouri
12 Florida
13 Auburn
14 Kentucky
A few notes:
1—South Carolina has a lot of new players, but they’re still loaded with high school All-Americans from one end of the roster to the other. The most notable could be 6’7 Kamilla Cardoso, who has been waiting her turn behind Aliyah Boston. Somebody has to show me they can beat the Gamecocks before I believe it.
2—LSU will be really good with the addition of Hailey Van Lith and Aneesah Morrow from the portal. Maybe the convergence of all those egos will create an explosion, but I doubt it. Their coach has enough ego to keep a lid on things.
3—The Vols once again made out in the portal with the addition of scoring wing Jewel Spear from Wake Forest and Belmont point guard Destinee Wells. Wells can also move to shooting guard and provide some scoring punch. The biggest pickup for coach Kellie Harper comes from within with the return of 6’5 Tamari Key, who missed most of last season. She’s big, physical and talented and is a natural compliment to wing player Rickea Jackson. You have to give Harper a lot of credit for the ascension of Jackson last season. She came to Knoxville from Mississippi State as a bit of a diva, started out under performing and found herself benched. When she came out of the dog house, she did so with a vengeance. All credit to her for her response. This team can play with South Carolina and LSU. Beat them? We’ll have to see.
4—I’m not fully onboard the Ole Miss Coach O hype train, but, credit where credit is due, they were terrific defensively in last season’s NCAA tourney, particularly in the upset of Stanford. In fairness, though, the Cardinal play in the PAC 12 where they still try to play basketball. They did not appear ready for the SEC rugby match that broke out against Ole Miss. The Rebels did well in the portal. I especially like the pick up of Florida Gator guard KK Deans. Still, it’s hard to maintain the kind of defensive effort they had against Stanford over a 16-game SEC schedule, and they still have some questions on offense. Deans will help there, though.
5—I go back and forth between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 4 and 5. The Bulldogs made a huge haul in the portal, bringing in three probable starters. There’s a good chance they start five seniors and grad students. Not only is there a talent factor, but those 22- and 23-year olds figure to be a lot more physically mature than the 18- and 19-year olds a lot of teams, including Vandy, will be playing.
6—Very uncertain about Bama, but they seem to be on a steady incline, and it doesn’t seem unreasonable to place them here near the middle of the pack. Coach Curry seems to be hitting her stride with recruiting.
7—Texas A&M not only brought in several talented players from the portal, but Joni Taylor also had a great recruiting class. Of the teams that have been perpetually in the bottom four the last few years, they seem to be the most certain to rise in the ranks this season. I would not be surprised to see them finish ahead of Bama. Like Vandy, they had a lot of injuries last year. The difference is, they got those players back late in the year and made a good run in the SEC tournament.
8—Georgia didn’t lose any players in the portal, and it’s hard to know if they made any new additions who will make them substantially better this season. They mostly get it done with a weirdly aggressive zone defense except when they faced Vandy when they hit their first 11 shots of the game and had a 17-0 run at one point. They’re just tough to beat.
9—Arkansas adds super scorer Taliah Scott out of high school and Sasha Goforth will be back after sitting out a year, but coach Mike Neighbors still has his annual question mark in the post. They lost their leading scorer, 6’2 Erynn Barnum, to Mississippi State. The Razorbacks have talent and they will score.
10—If Vandy can keep its roster together and out of the training room, the Commodores should be quite a bit better. They do have some firepower and enough depth to play fast and apply pressure. Rebounding could be the achilles heel. I’m hoping to see more of the UConn motion offense this season. It’s what coach Ralph has wanted to do from the start, but she hasn’t had the personnel. The Dores are starting out with a lot of ground to make up to get to the middle of the pack. I’m looking for an 8-10 finish with 10 the more likely. The team could be fun to watch if they run the way I think they will.
11-14 I won’t go into detail on these teams except to say, in my very-much amateur assessment, they all seem like they could decline a bit from last year.
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