Massey ratings

[Boreifs]

UConn is up to fifth, behind SC, Cardinal, NC State and Louisville. The computer liked that Wednesday game.

 

[Glenn]

Not that surprising--the MOV was relatively large (Creighton dropped about 10 slots in response, so the computer now thinks less of them). Our move up is partly because TN fell below us owing to their bad loss, and TX edged down from their "good" loss

 

[visitingcock]

The computer also banged on Tennessee.

 

[visitingcock]

NET:

	Team	Record	NET Rank	NET Delta
	South Carolina	21 - 1	1
	North Carolina State	20 - 3	2
	Stanford	17 - 3	3
	Louisville	20 - 2	4
	North Carolina	17 - 4	5
	Texas	15 - 4	6
	Arizona	15 - 3	7
	Connecticut	14 - 4	8	+4
	Oregon	13 - 5	9	+1
	Iowa State	19 - 3	10	+1
	Michigan	19 - 2	11	+5
	Notre Dame	18 - 4	12	+6
	BYU	18 - 2	13	-4
	Tennessee	19 - 3	14	-6

 

[FanFromMaine]

UConn is up to fifth, behind SC, Cardinal, NC State and Louisville. The computer liked that Wednesday game.

And the power ranking remains at 4th.

 

[FanFromMaine]

Not that surprising--the MOV was relatively large (Creighton dropped about 10 slots in response, so the computer now thinks less of them). Our move up is partly because TN fell below us owing to their bad loss, and TX edged down from their "good" loss

Can you capsulize the differences between the algorithms used by NET and Massey?

 

[eyeroll]

I prefer the Massey methodology, which I know is not the one the committee uses, for my personal analysis. Looking at our losses - we lost to South Carolina (#1), Louisville (#4), Oregon (#13), and Georgia Tech (#21). That's not too shabby. Looking at quality wins (top 50), where certainly some of the scheduling issues have impacted our potential here a little bit - we beat Arkansas (#30), South Florida (#39), Notre Dame (#19), UCLA (#40), Creighton x2 (#43), Depaul (#37). As of right now we have the #3 SOS too (although that drops to the 30s by the time the season is over).

I share this only because it made me feel about where we are, especially given some of the circumstances around a couple of those losses. It may be ugly sometimes but we still have a really good team. Even if Paige doesn't come back, I think this team, now with consistent players available, will continue to gel. South Carolina and Stanford seem to be the clear two best teams IMO but after that, it's a toss up and we are in that mix as much as anyone.

 

[dtbtbtb]

I prefer the Massey methodology, which I know is not the one the committee uses, for my personal analysis. Looking at our losses - we lost to South Carolina (#1), Louisville (#4), Oregon (#13), and Georgia Tech (#21). That's not too shabby. Looking at quality wins (top 50), where certainly some of the scheduling issues have impacted our potential here a little bit - we beat Arkansas (#30), South Florida (#39), Notre Dame (#19), UCLA (#40), Creighton x2 (#43), Depaul (#37). As of right now we have the #3 SOS too (although that drops to the 30s by the time the season is over).

I share this only because it made me feel about where we are, especially given some of the circumstances around a couple of those losses. It may be ugly sometimes but we still have a really good team. Even if Paige doesn't come back, I think this team, now with consistent players available, will continue to gel. South Carolina and Stanford seem to be the clear two best teams IMO but after that, it's a toss up and we are in that mix as much as anyone.

Agree. SC and Stanford seem clearly the best and after that i would think there is a parity where all the top 20 teams or so can beat one another on a given day (as shown by the loss of NC St. to Notre Dame). A UConn team with all playing, should have a reasonable chance to get to the Final 4 (as long as it not the 2 or 3 in a SC or Stanford region).

 

[Boreifs]

UConn just slipped to sixth after Arizona decidedly beat Oregon. Sounds fair.

 

[EdSaid]

Either way you slice it, NET and Massey is a snapshot look at the past.

For the future I would like rematches with L-Ville and Oregon with all players on both teams 100%, followed by an April 3 date with SC. Looking out the front window, not the rearview mirror.

 

[Alydar]

While I agree that UConn is a very good team compared with the rest but those UConn fans who go back more than 3 or 4 years have seen what "really good teams" looks like and the snapshot of UConn right now doesn't resemble that group. I expect that to change over the next couple of weeks.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

The "look back" of all these rating systems include, for the most part, a "Paige Less" UCONN. But... imagine if you will...for just a moment... how the return of Paige will transform the Huskies. She will blend in with the team that has fought through the season and gained so much valuable experience. She will give her Teammates more confidence and make each player more competitive. And the return of Paige will be felt throughout NCAA WBB. Coaches will have to re-evaluate their game plans. Opposing players will have to divert their focus so that they always know where she is. Her return will make UCONN a significantly different Team... dare I say a significantly better Team.

I hope UCONN is placed in Bridgeport as a 4 or better seed... but where ever they are placed, they will make their mark!!

Go Huskies

 

[TeamFirst!]

The biggest thing about Paige coming back is that it takes the weakest player out of the primary rotation and replaces her with the best player. Everyone in the lineup can then shoot and is a threat offensively. The opposing team will not be able to double down in the paint as much and just ignore the outside shooter. That changes everything.

 

[TeamFirst!]

I was surprised that Arizona dominated Oregon. They even played their subs a lot. It wasn't even close. Arizona is a wildcard. I think Arizona is better than Louisville, North Carolina and Texas for example. I bet Michigan and Notre Dame keep climbing as well.

 

[shiverz45]

I was surprised that Arizona dominated Oregon. They even played their subs a lot. It wasn't even close. Arizona is a wildcard. I think Arizona is better than Louisville, North Carolina and Texas for example. I bet Michigan and Notre Dame keep climbing as well.

I think Arizona has good talent but not great talent. They play above their talent level. You have to give props to the coaching and the system they run. They can beat anyone on any given night.

 

[shiverz45]

Agree. SC and Stanford seem clearly the best and after that i would think there is a parity where all the top 20 teams or so can beat one another on a given day (as shown by the loss of NC St. to Notre Dame). A UConn team with all playing, should have a reasonable chance to get to the Final 4 (as long as it not the 2 or 3 in a SC or Stanford region).

Although SC won earlier this year, UConn (with Paige) and Stanford are still the last two teams I would want on SC side of the bracket. I still have some anxiety from past defeats.

 

[TeamFirst!]

SC beat us badly when we had Paige. We did stay with them for 3 quarters though. Maybe the little more integration of newbies will help next time but SC should still be favored clearly. Got to play the subs some to be able to stay with them and now we have a stronger, more integrated bench.

 

[FanFromMaine]

At this point in every season there is usually enough data for Massey to produce some eerily accurate score predictions. Except for UConn...

No algorithm can account for the variety of line-ups the Huskies have employed this season. The 50+ MOV was reflected in a #4 power ranking again.

 

[jabstep]

SC beat us badly when we had Paige. We did stay with them for 3 quarters though. Maybe the little more integration of newbies will help next time but SC should still be favored clearly. Got to play the subs some to be able to stay with them and now we have a stronger, more integrated bench.

The SC game has to factor it was our third game in 3 days. Not under any circumstance would that occur even in the Dance. We had to play all of our starters in the South Florida game longer then we should have. We also didnt have Caroline and Azzi. Dorka hadnt really assimilated herself into the UConn system. SC team was the same team as last year essentially. If we play them fully healthy in the Final 4 I think we take them by at least ten points. Go Huskies

 

[Glenn]

Woke up and looked at Massey and the NCAA NET rankings. In both we moved up following our large MOV against Xavier. Massey explicitly uses the margin of victory, while the NET ratings implicitly use it through their efficiency metrics.

 

[Boreifs]

Can some tech wizard explain to me the computer love affair (both Massey and Net) with Oregon? They have lost eight games!

 

[VaConnFan11]

Strength of Schedule. I believe that Massey may also weight recent games over earlier games.

 

[Sifaka]

Woke up and looked at Massey and the NCAA NET rankings. In both we moved up following our large MOV against Xavier. Massey explicitly uses the margin of victory, while the NET ratings implicitly use it through their efficiency metrics.

Massey's website has an FAQ for how his ratings work for college football. He offers no such explanation for other sports, so I assume they are treated similarly. I've e-mailed him to request clarification.

In the meantime, here is what he has posted. It makes clear that blowout wins do not carry appreciably more weight than simply “good” victories.

“The main version does consider scoring margin, but its effect is diminished as the game becomes a blowout. The score of each game is translated into a number between 0 and 1. For example 30-29 might give 0.5270, while 45-21 gives 0.9433 and 56-3 gives around 0.9998

The maximum is topped at 1, so the curve flattens out for blowout scores. In addition, I do a Bayesian correction to reward each winner, regardless of the game's score.

The net effect is that there is no incentive to run up the score. However, a "comfortable" margin (say 10 points) is preferred to a narrow margin (say 3 points). (Note: these are football scores.)

In summary, winning games against quality competition overshadows blowout scores against inferior opponents. Each week, the results from the entire season are re-evaluated based on the latest results. Consistent winners are rewarded, and a blowout score has only marginal effect on a team's rating.”

 

[Glenn]

Mov is very important in the Massey calculations. Look at his own explainer. In football a 1 point margin gets you a .527 rating (basically even with the other team) a 24 point margin moves you up to .943, and a 53 point margin only a bit more at .9998. Clearly MOV is very important and why uconn moved up after beating lowly Xavier. And Massey does not put more weight on recent games.

 

[Figurehead]

Can some tech wizard explain to me the computer love affair (both Massey and Net) with Oregon? They have lost eight games!

Strength of schedule. They have played #9 UCONN, #7 Arizona, #2 Stanford, #1 South Carolina,

Computer must be rigged.