Marshall -7

[whaler11]

It's just about to tick down to 6.5 but right now it's Marshall -7.

You have to lay -130 to take the +7.

5dimes, only place I saw a line.

 

[J187Money]

time to #gofullnostical ?

 

[Dooley]

The ML play will pay off nicely if you do go full Nostical.

 

[Redding Husky]

I thought it would be 3, or maybe 6 at the most.

7 seems high. But they are 9-3, with a win over Purdue. We're 6-6 with a win over (G5) Houston and a three point loss at Missouri.

 

[B1GEast]

Take Uconn and the points

 

[uconnphil2016]

I thought it would be 3, or maybe 6 at the most.

7 seems high. But they are 9-3, with a win over Purdue. We're 6-6 with a win over (G5) Houston and a three point loss at Missouri.

Purdue was 2-10 this season and only beat one division I team. I'm going to say this and stand by it--we will smoke Marshall. Marshall's strength of schedule makes us look like we play in the SEC. Toughest opponent was WKU, who they lost to by 21.

 

[uconnphil2016]

Teams we've played who are better than WKU
-Navy
-Temple
-Houston
-BYU
-Maybe Cincy and USF

 

[uconndogs]

I think the defense will play very inspired football. Four seniors on their way out of football in Campeni, Stewart, Vann and Adams. Marshall has not seen a defense like this all season. I have no idea what to expect from the offense, but with BS back I can see enough offense to put something like 24-27 points on the board and that should be more than enough.

 

[whaler11]

 

[Redding Husky]

Purdue was 2-10 this season and only beat one division I team. I'm going to say this and stand by it--we will smoke Marshall. Marshall's strength of schedule makes us look like we play in the SEC. Toughest opponent was WKU, who they lost to by 21.

We know Purdue was not a significant win, but Vegas bettors are simpletons. They just see it as a win over a Big 10 team.

 

[J187Money]

The ML play will pay off nicely if you do go full Nostical.

Tough one. Given that we have the best roster in the country and obviously the worst coaching (because if your roster is that good how on earth could you be 6-6) who knows what will play out?

Maybe our talent will teach our coaches how to coach by Christmas.

Maybe our coaches will screw it all up and negate all of our talent.

----

If BS is healthy and our OL can remember how to block I think we should win.

 

[whaler11]

We know Purdue was not a significant win, but Vegas bettors are simpletons. They just see it as a win over a Big 10 team.

Well Nos you wanted the most ridiculous statement on the Yard.

 

[Waquoit]

It all depends who the QB is.

 

[Dooley]

QB will be Sheriffs. Diaco said in his presser yesterday that he has been medically cleared for full contact and he has been practicing. He wasn't cleared for Temple - hence why we had to run the lousy offense express.

 

[junglehusky]

7 sounds like a line without Shirreffs in the lineup, but maybe that's just me.

 

[Kgun7]

7 sounds like a line without Shirreffs in the lineup, but maybe that's just me.

Where's the unlike option when you need it? ............

 

[Redding Husky]

Well Nos you wanted the most ridiculous statement on the Yard.

Vegas bettors are usually shallow. Big names impress them: Marshall beat a "Big 10" team, so they must be good.

You don't think that you could make money on college football in Vegas? I know I could. Maybe you're just shallow like most of them.

 

[junglehusky]

Where's the unlike option when you need it? ..

We know he'll be ready. Whoever set the initial line must not have tuned into Sunday's press conference.

 

[whaler11]

Vegas bettors are usually shallow. Big names impress them: Marshall beat a "Big 10" team, so they must be good.

You don't think that you could make money on college football in Vegas? I know I could. Maybe you're just shallow like most of them.

LOL - I'll take your action anytime you like.

 

[junglehusky]

Adam Rittenberg predictions

St. Petersburg Bowl: Connecticut vs. Marshall
(Dec. 26, 11 a.m., ESPN)
Connecticut played a much tougher schedule, but Marshall's significant edge on offense might be too much for Bob Diaco's team to overcome. Marshall 26, Connecticut 20

 

[businesslawyer]

The line seemed shockingly high to me (assuming BS plays), but if you look at the computer rankings Marshall is ahead of us in both the Sagarins and the Massey composites, and the line by computer looks about right. Then you look at whom they beat and lost to on the way to 9-3 and you wonder how in the world the computers have them so much above us.

My guess is that the computers are punishing us for our narrow wins against inferior Nova, Army and Tulane teams. Given that two of those were at the start of the season while our team was learning to win again and one was in a monsoon, if we have a healthy QB I like our odds. I think any of the six teams we lost to would certainly be expected to beat Marshall on a neutral field, and they haven't beaten a team anywhere near Houston's level.

 

[uconnphil2016]

The line seemed shockingly high to me (assuming BS plays), but if you look at the computer rankings Marshall is ahead of us in both the Sagarins and the Massey composites, and the line by computer looks about right. Then you look at whom they beat and lost to on the way to 9-3 and you wonder how in the world the computers have them so much above us.

My guess is that the computers are punishing us for our narrow wins against inferior Nova, Army and Tulane teams. Given that two of those were at the start of the season while our team was learning to win again and one was in a monsoon, if we have a healthy QB I like our odds. I think any of the six teams we lost to would certainly be expected to beat Marshall on a neutral field, and they haven't beaten a team anywhere near Houston's level.

Didn't look at the other rating system, but the Sagarin seems kind of flawed to me. I only gave it a quick glance, but it says its a composite of three ratings (predictor, golden mean, recent) none of which account for strength of schedule. Maybe I'm just interpreting the metrics incorrectly; he does mention something about schedule strength at the beginning of the piece but that measure doesn't seem to be in any way incorporated into the rankings system. Given that Marshall's strength of schedule is ranked 133 and UConn's is 69, if schedule strength isn't a determinant in the ranking then it looks like UConn kind of gets piped and Marshall benefits. Also, the rankings system puts 7 FCS teams in the top 100 and 5 FCS teams ahead of UConn--not sure I believe in that.

 

[CL82]

Tough one. Given that we have the best roster in the country and obviously the worst coaching (because if your roster is that good how on earth could you be 6-6) who knows what will play out?

Maybe our talent will teach our coaches how to coach by Christmas.

Maybe our coaches will screw it all up and negate all of our talent.

----

If BS is healthy and our OL can remember how to block I think we should win.

The big question to me is how aggressive is he going to be running? It seems like the first time he ever slid, he got concussed. Does he still tuck and run? Does he slide? Is he smarter about finding a sideline? I don't know.

 

[businesslawyer]

Didn't look at the other rating system, but the Sagarin seems kind of flawed to me. I only gave it a quick glance, but it says its a composite of three ratings (predictor, golden mean, recent) none of which account for strength of schedule. Maybe I'm just interpreting the metrics incorrectly; he does mention something about schedule strength at the beginning of the piece but that measure doesn't seem to be in any way incorporated into the rankings system. Given that Marshall's strength of schedule is ranked 133 and UConn's is 69, if schedule strength isn't a determinant in the ranking then it looks like UConn kind of gets piped and Marshall benefits. Also, the rankings system puts 7 FCS teams in the top 100 and 5 FCS teams ahead of UConn--not sure I believe in that.

It does factor in strength of schedule, and I think that absolutely the best FCS teams in any year could compete in the MAC and the Sunbelt. But that having been said, as I have said many times, the Sagarins often don't "feel" as accurate to me as other measures. And this year, it "feels" that it has us too low (and does have us too low compared to other computer programs).

 

[Sky ball]

Vegas insider odds Monday @1:17 3.5 - 4.5
12/26 11:00 AM
225 Connecticut
226 Marshall
43u-10
-4½ -10
43u-10
-3½ -10

-4½ -10

-4 -10