March 2 bubble watch

[shizzle787]

Lock= mathematical lock: can lose out and make the field
Should be win= barring a complete collapse will get in
Work left to do= what it sounds like


ACC
Locks: Duke, Louisville, Clemson
Work left to do: UNC, SMU, Wake Forest

Big 12
Locks: Houston, Texas Tech, Iowa State, BYU
Should be in: Arizona, Kansas
Work left to do: Baylor, TCU, Cincy, Utah, WVU

Big 10
Locks: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, UCLA, Oregon
Should be in: Illinois
Work left to do: Indiana, Ohio State, Northwestern, Nebraska

Big East
Locks: St. John's, Marquette
Should be in: UConn, Creighton
Work left to do: Xavier, Villanova

SEC
Locks: Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Kentucky
Work left to do: Georgia, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

Mountain West
Should be in: Utah State, New Mexico
Work left to do: SDSU, Boise State

Others
Locks: St. Mary's
Should be in: Gonzaga, Memphis
Work left to do: San Francisco, Drake, UC San Diego, UC Irvine, VCU



Locks: 29
Should be in: 9
Work left to do: 25

Assuming a lock or should be in team wins the P5 leagues, MW, and WCC, that leaves 25 teams fighting for 6 spots.

 

[auror]

UConn is a lock. Even losing the next 3 straight they'd be 10-11 in first 2 quads with 4-5 quad one wins. That's better than all the bubble teams with good predictive metrics (presuming they don't lose each game by 30).

 

[ecasadoSBU]

What do you guys think are the possibilities for Xavier? Villanova? a 5th bid for the Big East...

Do they have to win out to the BET Finals to have their name called? Do they have to win the Championship? Semis?

EDIT: meant bid instead of seed

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Others
Locks: St. Mary's
Should be in: Gonzaga, Memphis
Work left to do: San Francisco, Drake, UC San Diego, UC Irvine, VCU

Would stink if Drake, UC San Diego or VCU don't get in. If the tournament started tomorrow, all three would be no-brainers.

 

[auror]

What do you guys think are the possibilities for Xavier? Villanova? a 5th seed for the Big East...

Do they have to win out to the BET Finals to have their name called? Do they have to win the Championship? Semis?

Xavier just has to win 3 more games I think. Possibly 2, but 3 would make me feel >50% chance.

 

[jpeakin]

UConn is a lock. Even losing the next 3 straight they'd be 10-11 in first 2 quads with 4-5 quad one wins. That's better than all the bubble teams with good predictive metrics (presuming they don't lose each game by 30).

In 2015, UConn were defending National Champs and had 20 wins. They were also watching the tournament from home .

I know we didn't get much respect coming out the AAC but still, let's just take care of business these last couple games and leave no doubt that we deserve to be there.

 

[UCLJ0211]

In 2015, UConn were defending National Champs and had 20 wins. They were also watching the tournament from home .

I know we didn't get much respect coming out the AAC but still, let's just take care of business these last couple games and leave no doubt that we deserve to be there.

I doubt they had 5 quad 1 wins that year though

 

[jpeakin]

I doubt they had 5 quad 1 wins that year though

No doubt. Like I said, just don't want to leave anything to chance.

 

[RuffRuff]

What do you guys think are the possibilities for Xavier? Villanova? a 5th bid for the Big East...

Do they have to win out to the BET Finals to have their name called? Do they have to win the Championship? Semis?

EDIT: meant bid instead of seed

 

[aceboon]

I wonder how far away Nova would be if they hadn't lost to Columbia, that and the loss to Providence is killing them. They've been decent this year when preseason folks were trying to put them in the Depaul category

 

[storrsroars]

Gonna be interesting if Boise St somehow wins the Mountain West, especially if Utah St., UNM and SDSU are the final four.

 

[superjohn]

Xavier has a good chance of being a second weekend team, IMO. They have a lot of talent and a lot of it is guard talent. Had they not had the injuries they had they would've been really good this season. I want nothing to do with them in the Big East tournament.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Xavier has a good chance of being a second weekend team, IMO. They have a lot of talent and a lot of it is guard talent. Had they not had the injuries they had they would've been really good this season. I want nothing to do with them in the Big East tournament.

Agree @superjohn .

Xavier is top 10 nationally in 3 point shooting which is our big Achilles heel. Another reason this week is so big for us. Win 2 games, and we are guaranteed to be the 3 seed in the BET. Xavier will most likely be the 5, with Villanova the 6. I'd rather play Nova in the quarters.

 

[RuffRuff]

Agree @superjohn .

Xavier is top 10 nationally in 3 point shooting which is our big Achilles heel. Another reason this week is so big for us. Win 2 games, and we are guaranteed to be the 3 seed in the BET. Xavier will most likely be the 5, with Villanova the 6. I'd rather play Nova in the quarters.

I think either will be a tough out, Nova may have one last mad dash in them for Neptune. And they have really good players in Dixon, Poplar and Longino, one of two teams to beat StJ. They also spanked Xavier pretty good last matchup. Neither team easy but I do prefer the matchup with Nova.

 

[uconngb]

I saw one of these idiot brackets and they still had Arkansas IN as an 11th seed. After getting pummeled by a previously 1 win in conf SC squad, and at 17-12, 6-10. That’s a JOKE

 

[storrsroars]

I saw one of these idiot brackets and they still had Arkansas IN as an 11th seed. After getting pummeled by a previously 1 win in conf SC squad, and at 17-12, 6-10. That’s a JOKE

Currently on BracketMatrix there are 28 brackets posted that updated today. 21 have Arkansas as 11, 5 have them as 12, and 2 have them out.

The problem with removing Arkansas (NET 47) appears to be a simple case that anyone you'd replace them with is arguably not an improvement. The candidates, based on teams not currently in the field but in the most brackets, are Boise St.(43), Texas (45), UNC (42) and Xavier (49).

Arkansas has a better NET than several other teams in the conversation for 9/10/11 seeds, including WVU, SDSU, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Indiana.

Honestly, best thing the tourney could do this year is cut the field back to 64 as there aren't 68 teams worth considering.

 

[UCTitleTown]

UConn is a lock. Even losing the next 3 straight they'd be 10-11 in first 2 quads with 4-5 quad one wins. That's better than all the bubble teams with good predictive metrics (presuming they don't lose each game by 30).

We will probably end the regular season 22-9. No way back to back champs are being left out.

I wish we could've pulled off a couple more wins to have a single digit loss season which I've always used as one measure of a good season.

 

[auror]

Agree @superjohn .

Xavier is top 10 nationally in 3 point shooting which is our big Achilles heel. Another reason this week is so big for us. Win 2 games, and we are guaranteed to be the 3 seed in the BET. Xavier will most likely be the 5, with Villanova the 6. I'd rather play Nova in the quarters.

Nova is an even better 3pt shooting team though, lol. 2nd in the country.

 

[Chuck]

I don’t think Xavier will get in. Weak metrics and the Big East has a weak representative. He’ll just be happy they’ll get one more team than last year.

 

[RuffRuff]

I don’t think Xavier will get in. Weak metrics and the Big East has a weak representative. He’ll just be happy they’ll get one more team than last year.

 

[storrsroars]

If X wins the games they should, I think they've got a pretty good chance at last 4 in. If they beat us in the 4/5 BET game, I'm confident we're both in, with us as a 9 and them as a non-play-in 11.

This is the first year Torvik and WAB will be on the team sheets. X is currently 36 on Torvik, and while the WAB is borderline at 48, it's better than some other bubble teams. It'll be close, but I think their schedule is in their favor compared to some other bubbles.

I don't think Oklahoma makes it. They've got Mizzou at home and Texas in Austin, who's currently L4O and will probably lose to Miss St. on Wed. Oklahoma has lost 7 of their last 8. WVU goes to Utah on Tuesday and can easily drop that, so will likely end up 1-1 for the week, dropping them a line. Baylor has to play Houston then goes to TCU's place, a game they can easily lose.

A lot will happen this week and I think it'll be in X's favor.

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T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

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[nelsonmuntz]

There is not a recent precedent for this season’s SEC. It will be really hard to predict how the Committee will treat all those quality losses.

 

[Scrutineer]

I saw one of these idiot brackets and they still had Arkansas IN as an 11th seed. After getting pummeled by a previously 1 win in conf SC squad, and at 17-12, 6-10. That’s a JOKE

But, but, but, won't Coach Cal have them ready for the NCAA tournament as he always does?
Do the Arkansas fans already feel like Kentucky fans after only one year?

 

[Scrutineer]

We will probably end the regular season 22-9. No way back to back champs are being left out.

I wish we could've pulled off a couple more wins to have a single digit loss season which I've always used as one measure of a good season.

So does this mean you've thrown in the towel on the season? 31-9 is not yet out of the question.

 

[gsmooth]

Xavier has a good chance of being a second weekend team, IMO. They have a lot of talent and a lot of it is guard talent. Had they not had the injuries they had they would've been really good this season. I want nothing to do with them in the Big East tournament.

Unfortunately UConn would play them in the first 4-5 game. Xavier does look really good now and are playing like the team many thought they would be before the season started.