Magic Number to get in the tournament

[BFieldHusky]

With 17 games down, and 14 to go...what do people think is our "magic number" to get in the tournament? Used to be the goal was 20 wins. Not sure that would do it this year, but always hard to say as the bubble could be weak again this year. Keep in mind that our OOC profile is good right now with the wins over Michigan, and Texas, with Ohio State lurking outside the Top 50 RPI.

The following is our schedule:

Tulane
G'Town
Cincy
at UCF
at Memphis
East Carolina
at Temple
Tulsa
SMU
at Cincy
at USF
Houston
at SMU
UCF

If we won all of our home games, split at Memphis/Temple and lost both road games to Cincy/SMU we would be 23-8, and 13-5 in the league, and solidly in the field.

 

[Kitaman]

A perpetual 1 will do it.

 

[amory]

hard to give a "magic number" in college basketball. if we lose a couple more stinkers we'll be on the bubble

this next 3 game stretch at home is huge

 

[Stinger92860]

11-3, plus at least one win in the AAC tournament

 

[August_West]

With 17 games down, and 14 to go...what do people think is our "magic number" to get in the tournament? Used to be the goal was 20 wins. Not sure that would do it this year, but always hard to say as the bubble could be weak again this year. Keep in mind that our OOC profile is good right now with the wins over Michigan, and Texas, with Ohio State lurking outside the Top 50 RPI.

The following is our schedule:

Tulane
G'Town
Cincy
at UCF
at Memphis
East Carolina
at Temple
Tulsa
SMU
at Cincy
at USF
Houston
at SMU
UCF

If we won all of our home games, split at Memphis/Temple and lost both road games to Cincy/SMU we would be 23-8, and 13-5 in the league, and solidly in the field.

Solidly in the tournament? Not so sure. Temple last year 22-9 RPI 33. 13-5 in AAC... Won a game in AAC tournement . No bid. I would be totally nervous with those numbers you posted above. Especially in a year where there will be a ton of 8-11 loss P5 teams.

 

[Stinger92860]

Solidly in the tournament? Not so sure. Temple last year 22-9 RPI 33. 13-5 in AAC... Won a game in AAC tournement . No bid. I would be totally nervous with those numbers you posted above. Especially in a year where there will be a ton of 8-11 loss P5 teams.

Forgot about Temple last year. We may need to 12-2 plus one tourney win or 11-3 plus 2 tourney wins. I'm nor sure we have the team to do that.

 

[August_West]

Forgot about Temple last year. We may need to 12-2 plus one tourney win or 11-3 plus 2 tourney wins. I'm nor sure we have the team to do that.

Its a little frightening. I agree. That is the frustrating thing about letting games like Tulsa and Temple slip away. We should have had both and NEEDED one.
We have to go on a tear. Hopefully yesterday will help turn the corner and the guys see the benefits of playing with dogged determination and can keep that level of intensity up
Thing is that if we are going to drop games in the fashion of Temple and Tulsa down the home stretch here, I cant argue that we belong in any tournament anyway. Its make or break time. Starting with these 3 at home. We cannot get our serve broken here in this stretch.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Solidly in the tournament? Not so sure. Temple last year 22-9 RPI 33. 13-5 in AAC... Won a game in AAC tournement . No bid. I would be totally nervous with those numbers you posted above. Especially in a year where there will be a ton of 8-11 loss P5 teams.

Temple had some horrible losses last year OOC, and while they beat Kansas, they lost to SMU 3x and Cincy twice. Didn't have nearly the quality of wins UCONN would have.

If we have the record I suggest we would have wins over SMU, Michigan, Texas, Ohio State, G'Town, Cincy. We will be in the field.

 

[tcf15]

Temple had some horrible losses last year OOC, and while they beat Kansas, they lost to SMU 3x and Cincy twice. Didn't have nearly the quality of wins UCONN would have.

If we have the record I suggest we would have wins over SMU, Michigan, Texas, Ohio State, G'Town, Cincy. We will be in the field.

Yup - UNLV (RPI 104) and St. Joe's (RPI 182) OOC losses is what probably killed them. Fortunately, we don't have a bad RPI loss yet *knocks on wood*:

11 - Maryland
61 - Gonzaga
65 - Syracuse
67 - Tulsa
87 - Temple

 

[August_West]

Temple had some horrible losses last year OOC, and while they beat Kansas, they lost to SMU 3x and Cincy twice. Didn't have nearly the quality of wins UCONN would have.

If we have the record I suggest we would have wins over SMU, Michigan, Texas, Ohio State, G'Town, Cincy. We will be in the field.

I would hope we are. To call it a lock based on recent past tournament snubs for the AAC is shortsighted IMO. All Im saying. Lets not put to the test again, an AAC team has had the worst tourney snub in each of the first 2 seasons of existence. any more than 2 losses the rest of the way and we are looking at some nervousness.

 

[freescooter]

10-4 gets us in assuming none of the 4 are dreck of the universe teams.

 

[Jerry1714]

I would hope we are. To call it a lock based on recent past tournament snubs for the AAC is shortsighted IMO. All Im saying. Lets not put to the test again, an AAC team has had the worst tourney snub in each of the first 2 seasons of existence. any more than 2 losses the rest of the way and we are looking at some nervousness.

Neither of those schools are the brand UConn is.

 

[EROCK CONN]

With 17 games down, and 14 to go...what do people think is our "magic number" to get in the tournament? Used to be the goal was 20 wins. Not sure that would do it this year, but always hard to say as the bubble could be weak again this year. Keep in mind that our OOC profile is good right now with the wins over Michigan, and Texas, with Ohio State lurking outside the Top 50 RPI.

The following is our schedule:

Tulane
G'Town
Cincy
at UCF
at Memphis
East Carolina
at Temple
Tulsa
SMU
at Cincy
at USF
Houston
at SMU
UCF

If we won all of our home games, split at Memphis/Temple and lost both road games to Cincy/SMU we would be 23-8, and 13-5 in the league, and solidly in the field.

Spot on here. If they go 10-4 the rest of the way we'll be 22-9 heading into the AAC tournament and I think that's worst case scenario (keep in mind, save for last year, UConn teams typically get better as the season goes on and Brimah will be back within the next 3-4 weeks). 2 or 3 wins in the AAC tournament and we're looking at, at least, 24 wins. I think 25 is the safe bet with 24 being 70/30 in favor of getting in.

With that said, this next 5 game stretch is huge but is very favorable. First three are home games and we should win all three. Next two are UCF (should win but I smell wtf loss there) and Memphis (we all know how that song has gone). If we come out of this stretch 4-1 or 5-0 the boys are 17-5 or 16-6. After that, with 9 games left, going 6-3 gets them right where they need to be heading into the AAC tourney. If we can split with SMU ( have to figure we'll beat them at some point) win at Cinci and split with Temple and Memphis the record is 24-7 or 23-8. With our kryptonite out of the AAC field, we should get at least two wins and I really like our chances to win it.

 

[JimHurley]

I think 22 wins and at least 1 win in the AAC tourney. So 23 total. The AAC is not respected.

 

[mauconnfan]

22-9/12-6 may need to win 1 in conference tourney.

 

[pnow15]

Let's make it simple. If we win all the rest of our games, we're National Champs.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Does the committee take into account we have been playing without Brimah for almost a month now? I only ask because Seth Davis was mentioning in his piece today the committee will look at Syracuse differently because Boeheim was out, and they do the same for players when evaluating teams. Do we get a small break for losing to Temple/Tulsa because of the injury?

 

[Hi-Low]

Let's make it simple. If we win all the rest of our games, we're National Champs.

Great thing about college basketball.....Central CT can say the same thing.

 

[pnow15]

Does the committee take into account we have been playing without Brimah for almost a month now? I only ask because Seth Davis was mentioning in his piece today the committee will look at Syracuse differently because Boeheim was out, and they do the same for players when evaluating teams. Do we get a small break for losing to Temple/Tulsa because of the injury?

How many points does Boeheim score a game?

 

[August_West]

How many points does Boeheim score a game?

He is averaging 7.3 boogers a game (career stats)

 

[Chin Diesel]

Does the committee take into account we have been playing without Brimah for almost a month now? I only ask because Seth Davis was mentioning in his piece today the committee will look at Syracuse differently because Boeheim was out, and they do the same for players when evaluating teams. Do we get a small break for losing to Temple/Tulsa because of the injury?

The selection committee is supposed to take in to account a team that lost a player during the season and has that player back somewhat favorably. There isn't a written formula for it.
On the other hand, if a team loses a key player and that player won't be available they can knock a team down. The common example was when Cincy was #1 most of the year but lost Kenyon Martin for the tourney. The committee knocked down Cincy.
If players or coaches miss games due suspensions based on misconduct, those teams are not supposed to be evaluated favorably due to poor performance of the suspension. One of the deterrents of bad conduct is that getting caught can (and is supposed to) negatively impact the overall team's chance of success.

In reality? They do what they want and then find a reason to justify it. The standards are unevenly applied.

 

[Jaker]

Win them all and we won't have to worry.

 

[W Coast UCONN]

Honestly we should win the AAC tourney...
We are UCONN we share the most Big East tourney wins with 7! We need to pick our head back up and own this conference. We need that swagger/spark again. Especially going into March.

 

[gtcam]

Does the committee take into account we have been playing without Brimah for almost a month now? I only ask because Seth Davis was mentioning in his piece today the committee will look at Syracuse differently because Boeheim was out, and they do the same for players when evaluating teams. Do we get a small break for losing to Temple/Tulsa because of the injury?

The picker was out because he fugged up not because he was ill or incapacitated
That's a BS statement from Davis
UConn shouldn't be looking for breaks like that - just win the games and not get on your knees and pray.

 

[mauconnfan]

He is averaging 7.3 boogers a game (career stats)

And ALL are offensive.