Lower seed victories | The Boneyard

Lower seed victories

Vowelguy

Vowelguy

Joined
Aug 24, 2011
Messages
26,062
Reaction Score
70,716
Just 1 significant upset so far...

#10 Oregon 71 #7 Temple 70
#9 Cal 55 #8 LSU 52
#12 Quinnipiac 68 #5 Marquette 65
#9 Purdue 74 #8 Green Bay 62

#5 Ohio St 82 #4 Kentucky 68​
 
Thus in terms of conference performance vs seed expectations:

PAC +2
B10 +2
AAC -1
BgE -1
SEC -2
 
Yes. 12 beating a five seems to be a seeding mistake. The others, not so much. Two number 1s now have injured stars. South Carolina two injured stars. (Which we all hate happened). Wonder how that will affect things?
 
It's not so much the seed discrepancy that denotes seeding mistakes. But, how each game unfolded, the ease/difficulty of victory, and the margin of victory.

For example, in an 8/9 matchup, a 20 point victory seems extreme. A lot of folks here believed Syracuse was underseeded. I thought Iowa State was over seeded. So, perhaps it was both. Perhaps this was more of a 6/11 or 7/10 matchup than 8/9.

I'm sure there were other examples, as well.
 
I don't think any of the results represent serious issues with seeding necessarily - these are margin of error situations, or probability results. Even the 5/12 match-ups fall into the arena of best performance by the winner and worst performance by the loser range of possible score outcomes.

We as humans sort of expect 'consistency' (especially as Uconn fans) and are shocked by a Tulane 3 point loss to Uconn when it happens, but the reality of the regular season and conference tournament is anything but consistent - a 1 seed lost to a 6 seed in the Big12T, another #1 seed lost to both a 6 seed and a 5 seed in the SECr, another 1 seed lost to 6 seed and a 5 seed in the ACCr. And we expect the 1 seeds to be the most consistent teams out there, so why be surprised when you get down to a 5 seed having issue with a 12 seed.
 
Define "performance". Winning or losing is certainly 1 way, but it's sometimes misleading. Oregon States performances against Long Beach and Creighton were underwhelming and that's being generous. Both were substantially smaller and less talented than OSU yet came within an eyelash of pulling upsets. Ditto for Stanford's game. #2 seeds should be winning 1st round games by 30 or more.
 
.-.
UcMiami said:
I don't think any of the results represent serious issues with seeding necessarily - these are margin of error situations, or probability results. Even the 5/12 match-ups fall into the arena of best performance by the winner and worst performance by the loser range of possible score outcomes.

We as humans sort of expect 'consistency' (especially as Uconn fans) and are shocked by a Tulane 3 point loss to Uconn when it happens, but the reality of the regular season and conference tournament is anything but consistent - a 1 seed lost to a 6 seed in the Big12T, another #1 seed lost to both a 6 seed and a 5 seed in the SECr, another 1 seed lost to 6 seed and a 5 seed in the ACCr. And we expect the 1 seeds to be the most consistent teams out there, so why be surprised when you get down to a 5 seed having issue with a 12 seed.
Expand ...

well said
 
Before this year,
  1. The #1 seed is 95– 1 against the #16 seed (.990).
  2. The #2 seed is 96– 0 against the #15 seed (1.000).
  3. The #3 seed is 96– 0 against the #14 seed (1.000).
  4. The #4 seed is 90– 6 against the #13 seed (.938).
  5. The #5 seed is 75-21 against the #12 seed (.781).
  6. The #6 seed is 68–28 against the #11 seed (.708).
  7. The #7 seed is 63-33 against the #10 seed (.656).
  8. The #9 seed is 50–46 against the # 8 seed (.521).
 
2 significant upsets so far...

#10 Oregon 71 #7 Temple 70
#9 Cal 55 #8 LSU 52
#12 Quinnipiac 68 #5 Marquette 65
#9 Purdue 74 #8 Green Bay 62

#5 Ohio St 82 #4 Kentucky* 68
#10 Oregon 74 #2 Duke* 65​
 
vowelguy said:
2 significant upsets so far...

#10 Oregon 71 #7 Temple 70
#9 Cal 55 #8 LSU 52
#12 Quinnipiac 68 #5 Marquette 65
#9 Purdue 74 #8 Green Bay 62

#5 Ohio St 82 #4 Kentucky* 68
#10 Oregon 74 #2 Duke* 65​
Expand ...

Not sure it's fair to characterize Oregon's win as a significant upset given that Duke's point guard Lambert tore her ACL in the 1st round. IMHO, Duke was slightly over seeded to begin with and losing your point guard would be big loss to overcome for most teams.
 
3 significant upsets so far...

#10 Oregon 71 #7 Temple 70
#9 Cal 55 #8 LSU 52
#12 Quinnipiac 68 #5 Marquette 65
#9 Purdue 74 #8 Green Bay 62

#5 Ohio St 82 #4 Kentucky* 68
#10 Oregon 74 #2 Duke* 65
#12 Quinnipiac #4 Miami* ​
 
.-.
toadfoot said:
Not sure it's fair to characterize Oregon's win as a significant upset given that Duke's point guard Lambert tore her ACL in the 1st round. IMHO, Duke was slightly over seeded to begin with and losing your point guard would be big loss to overcome for most teams.
Expand ...
Lexi Brown is the point guard. Though your point that Lambert is a contributing player is noted. Duke is driven by BRown, Greenwell and Chidom so Lambert is a peripheral player.

Just my opinion but. please give due to a vastly improving Oregon Ducks team who is looking to start their own legacy with the very good freshman.
 
toadfoot said:
Define "performance". Winning or losing is certainly 1 way, but it's sometimes misleading. Oregon States performances against Long Beach and Creighton were underwhelming and that's being generous. Both were substantially smaller and less talented than OSU yet came within an eyelash of pulling upsets. Ditto for Stanford's game. #2 seeds should be winning 1st round games by 30 or more.
Expand ...
I agree that OSU has under performed (was at the games this weekend), however, winning is all that matters when you get to the tournament. You could substitute Stanford in the same sentence. Remember, OSU won the PAC-12 regular season and Stanford won the PAC-12 title (over OSU). These are the 2 best defensive teams in the PAC-12. They don't win with offense. Winning ugly usually reflects a team that wins with not the best offense, but somehow pulls out the win (usually with some 4th quarter defensive stops). How far it carries each through the tournament remains to be seen. It's a different brand of basketball than what is usually covered in the media.
 
LO TRADER said:
I agree that OSU has under performed (was at the games this weekend), however, winning is all that matters when you get to the tournament. You could substitute Stanford in the same sentence. Remember, OSU won the PAC-12 regular season and Stanford won the PAC-12 title (over OSU). These are the 2 best defensive teams in the PAC-12. They don't win with offense. Winning ugly usually reflects a team that wins with not the best offense, but somehow pulls out the win (usually with some 4th quarter defensive stops). How far it carries each through the tournament remains to be seen. It's a different brand of basketball than what is usually covered in the media.
Expand ...
And that has been OSUw's MO all year long - they don't blow teams away, but they find a way to win a lot of close games. There MOV in the Pac12 is 8 points - the regular season champs of the SEC were at 17 MOV, Big12 at 27.3, ACC at 18.2, and Big10 at 22.6.
DefenseBB said:
Lexi Brown is the point guard. Though your point that Lambert is a contributing player is noted. Duke is driven by BRown, Greenwell and Chidom so Lambert is a peripheral player.

Just my opinion but. please give due to a vastly improving Oregon Ducks team who is looking to start their own legacy with the very good freshman.
Expand ...
Lexi Brown was not playing PG during the season, but was clearly the best guard and the driving force for Duke - but it doesn't really matter - losing a starter on a short bench team, and especially in the first game of a weekend in the NCAA tournament is really really hard to recover from for any team. Oregon played really well and deserved the win but it was against a team that had been significantly weakened by injury. Lambert was playing 30 minutes a game - with the best A/TO ration at 2.0 with no one else on the team close to 1.5 - as a team they had a 1.0 A/TO.
 
UcMiami said:
And that has been OSUw's MO all year long - they don't blow teams away, but they find a way to win a lot of close games. There MOV in the Pac12 is 8 points - the regular season champs of the SEC were at 17 MOV, Big12 at 27.3, ACC at 18.2, and Big10 at 22.6.

Lexi Brown was not playing PG during the season, but was clearly the best guard and the driving force for Duke - but it doesn't really matter - losing a starter on a short bench team, and especially in the first game of a weekend in the NCAA tournament is really really hard to recover from for any team. Oregon played really well and deserved the win but it was against a team that had been significantly weakened by injury. Lambert was playing 30 minutes a game - with the best A/TO ration at 2.0 with no one else on the team close to 1.5 - as a team they had a 1.0 A/TO.
Expand ...
Umm, I beg to differ with Lexi leading the team in Assists and turnovers says she has the ball in her hands more than Lambert. I am not a Duke expert but in their 4 games I saw, Lexi did the majority of bringing the ball up the court, running the offense, was a point guard at MD and has been discussed on many other threads her PG efforts. That is just parsing minor quibble as yes, Lambert did play a major role vs. my "peripheral" role. I would say similar to Soniya. Again, just my opinion.
 
still just 3 significant upsets so far, and 7 lower seeds winning ...

#10 Oregon 71 #7 Temple 70
#9 Cal 55 #8 LSU 52
#12 Quinnipiac 68 #5 Marquette 65
#9 Purdue 74 #8 Green Bay 62

#5 Ohio St 82 #4 Kentucky* 68
#10 Oregon 74 #2 Duke* 65
#12 Quinnipiac 85 #4 Miami* 78​
 
Talk about a terrible job by the committee. No team should breeze through a bracket after loosing their top player. Talk about protecting certain teams. JUST SAYING !
 
.-.
DefenseBB said:
Umm, I beg to differ with Lexi leading the team in Assists and turnovers says she has the ball in her hands more than Lambert. I am not a Duke expert but in their 4 games I saw, Lexi did the majority of bringing the ball up the court, running the offense, was a point guard at MD and has been discussed on many other threads her PG efforts. That is just parsing minor quibble as yes, Lambert did play a major role vs. my "peripheral" role. I would say similar to Soniya. Again, just my opinion.
Expand ...
DT led the team in assists in 2003 and 2004 but Maria was the PG and essential to the teams success, Gabby leads the current team in assists, but is clearly not the PG. But we really aren't in disagreement. Whatever you want to identify as a players position, losing a starter in the tournament and especially in the first game of a weekend series is hard to adjust to, especially when you do not have a replacement on the bench.
 
magic said:
Talk about a terrible job by the committee. No team should breeze through a bracket after loosing their top player. Talk about protecting certain teams. JUST SAYING !
Expand ...
There is a reason top teams are top teams and ND has been the second best team in the country for the last five years through the graduation of lots of star players. They still have as much if not more talent than most of the teams remaining, and a much better coach than all of the remaining teams with the exception of their next opponent and that guy in Storrs. And OSUe/KY in the 4/5 were much stronger than Miami/Missouri in the Stockton region and TX/Stanford as 2/3 were arguably better than OSUw/FSU.
 
UcMiami said:
There is a reason top teams are top teams and ND has been the second best team in the country for the last five years through the graduation of lots of star players. They still have as much if not more talent than most of the teams remaining, and a much better coach than all of the remaining teams with the exception of their next opponent and that guy in Storrs. And OSUe/KY in the 4/5 were much stronger than Miami/Missouri in the Stockton region and TX/Stanford as 2/3 were arguably better than OSUw/FSU.
Expand ...
Not sure about your last statement. Texas should never had been a 3 seed., their record did not support a 3 seed. I haven't seen FSU play yet, but everything I hear about FSU, they are a fine team. OSU beat Stanford 2 out of 3 games they played this year.
 
LO TRADER said:
Not sure about your last statement. Texas should never had been a 3 seed., their record did not support a 3 seed. I haven't seen FSU play yet, but everything I hear about FSU, they are a fine team. OSU beat Stanford 2 out of 3 games they played this year.
Expand ...
Texas should not have been a 3 seed?! Who should have instead?
 
LO TRADER said:
Not sure about your last statement. Texas should never had been a 3 seed., their record did not support a 3 seed. I haven't seen FSU play yet, but everything I hear about FSU, they are a fine team. OSU beat Stanford 2 out of 3 games they played this year.
Expand ...
I did use the word 'arguably' and as vowelguy said who you moving up to three over Texas - Louisville, KY, UCLA, Miami? Who knows, UCLA may shock us all, but they certainly don't have a better resume than TX. And the others have already proved their weaknesses.
 
4 significant upsets so far, and 9 lower seeds winning ...

#10 Oregon 71 #7 Temple 70
#9 Cal 55 #8 LSU 52
#12 Quinnipiac 68 #5 Marquette 65
#9 Purdue 74 #8 Green Bay 62

#5 Ohio St 82 #4 Kentucky* 68
#10 Oregon 74 #2 Duke* 65
#12 Quinnipiac 85 #4 Miami* 78

#10 Oregon 77 #3 Maryland 63
#3 Florida St 66 #2 Oregon St 53
​
 
.-.
Conference performance vs seed expectations:

PAC +3
B10 +2
AAC -1
BgE -1
SEC -2
ACC -2
OTH +1
 
4 significant upsets so far, and 11 lower seeds winning ...

#10 Oregon 71 #7 Temple 70
#9 Cal 55 #8 LSU 52
#12 Quinnipiac 68 #5 Marquette 65
#9 Purdue 74 #8 Green Bay 62

#5 Ohio St 82 #4 Kentucky* 68
#10 Oregon 74 #2 Duke* 65
#12 Quinnipiac 85 #4 Miami* 78

#10 Oregon 77 #3 Maryland 63
#3 Florida St 66 #2 Oregon St 53

#2 Miss St #1 Baylor
#2 Stanford #1 Notre Dame
​
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,351
Messages
4,566,654
Members
10,469
Latest member
xxBlueChips


Top Bottom