Louisville Stock about to drop 4 points on the NCAAWB Index

[Bajan Best]

So all the folks on here and nationally who thought Louisville was deserving of their #2 Ranking after beating the then #1 team in the country, now what?

I guess next week the debate should be if unranked Ohio ST should be #4 right behind UCONN after they knock off the #2 team in the country?

Personally, I don't care what nobody says, It is of my opinion that NO team should be able to move more than 4 spots in the ranking after a single win or a loss, period.

 

[Reypl21]

So all the folks on here and nationally who thought Louisville was deserving of their #2 Ranking after beating the then #1 team in the country, now what?

I guess next week the debate should be if unranked Ohio ST should be #4 right behind UCONN after they knock off the #2 team in the country?

Personally, I don't care what nobody says, It is of my opinion that NO team should be able to move more than 4 spots in the ranking after a single win or a loss, period.

Louisville beat a team that beat the national team. Of course, that exhibition game literally means nothing for college basketball.. it does sway perceptions. At least perceptions of the voters. Oregon was the unanimous number 1, and beating them means a lot in the voters eyes.

Plus you leave out that No. 2 Baylor also lost during that week as well, so ranking the teams would be difficult. I didn't see anything wrong with Lousiville being number 2. Obviously they couldn't live up to the name in only the first week being ranked that.

 

[Bajan Best]

Louisville beat a team that beat the national team. Of course, that exhibition game literally means nothing for college basketball.. it does sway perceptions. At least perceptions of the voters. Oregon was the unanimous number 1, and beating them means a lot in the voters eyes.

Plus you leave out that No. 2 Baylor also lost during that week as well, so ranking the teams would be difficult. I didn't see anything wrong with Lousiville being number 2. Obviously, they couldn't live up to the name in only the first week being ranked that.

Funny how winning one game qualifies a team as being legitimate..
Let's take a closer look, shall we..? Who exactly did Louisville beat before winning against Oregon to escalate them prematurely from 8th to 2nd?

Any other ranked teams? No, not a single other ranked opponent!
Then I'm guessing the average margin of victory against those cupcakes should be impressive right? A mere 23 point average MOV.. not mid 30's or 40's or 50's

To be more specific

Western Kentucky by 19 ( who also Loss to unranked SMC by 17)
Murray State by 36 (who MSST beat 2 games later by 81 points)
CMU Central Michigan by 13 (1 game later lost by 35 to unranked Western Kentucky)
UTC Chattanooga by 49 (a team with only 1 win so far)
BSU Boise State by 16 (W-Kentucky beat them by 12)
UTA - Texas Arlington by 9 ( who Loss to Oregon by 37 and to unranked OKST by 15)
Oklahoma State by 21 (who also lost to Oregon by 17).

How in heaven's name could people with functioning brains really consider Louisville to be the second-best team in the country looking at that data.. Oh well, Ohio State took care of that for us, back to reality...

 

[MainefanSC]

I'm not really into analyzing a lot of data when I make a mental picture of who's who within the college ranks, especially one month into the season. There are so many variables when it comes to college kids (young women & men). The sport is irrelevant although my preference is the WCBB. I used to be a big fan of MCBB but it has pretty much gone the way of the NBA. Meaning that it's too much above the rim for me.
As we all know, on any given night, evening or day, any team is vulnerable and for many reasons could "go down". We were "ripe for the picking" last night but Aubrey became our "ace in the hole". I'm not taking anything away from Megan or any other of our women that played well. With foul trouble early and SH making enough 3's to boggle the mind, our kids NEEDED an unexpected surprise from someone and AG stepped up. If she didn't have a "career" game so early in her career, who knows what would have happened. Heaven forbid, we may have taken an L and the pundits would have been all over the #4 ranking. Who cares what the ranking is!!?? Play the game the best you can and move on. The season will settle out who is the best and on down to who isn't.
In the recent past, CW "laid it on" ND as a young freshman and before that we remember well the "hurting" CD2 put on Baylor as a freshman. All I say is enjoy the success and celebrate with these young players. There will be plenty to agonize over, I do believe, before the season runs its course. Are the early rankings any indication of any team's standing, among all the talent that's out there? I think not. Although I personally believe Oregon is still the team to beat.

 

[Dokey]

I'm not really into analyzing a lot of data when I make a mental picture of who's who within the college ranks, especially one month into the season. There are so many variables when it comes to college kids (young women & men). The sport is irrelevant although my preference is the WCBB. I used to be a big fan of MCBB but it has pretty much gone the way of the NBA. Meaning that it's too much above the rim for me.
As we all know, on any given night, evening or day, any team is vulnerable and for many reasons could "go down". We were "ripe for the picking" last night but Aubrey became our "ace in the hole". I'm not taking anything away from Megan or any other of our women that played well. With foul trouble early and SH making enough 3's to boggle the mind, our kids NEEDED an unexpected surprise from someone and AG stepped up. If she didn't have a "career" game so early in her career, who knows what would have happened. Heaven forbid, we may have taken an L and the pundits would have been all over the #4 ranking. Who cares what the ranking is!!?? Play the game the best you can and move on. The season will settle out who is the best and on down to who isn't.
In the recent past, CW "laid it on" ND as a young freshman and before that we remember well the "hurting" CD2 put on Baylor as a freshman. All I say is enjoy the success and celebrate with these young players. There will be plenty to agonize over, I do believe, before the season runs its course. Are the early rankings any indication of any team's standing, among all the talent that's out there? I think not. Although I personally believe Oregon is still the team to beat.

Yes, I watch the women’s game because the college and pro game is too much above the rim. Some people find that exciting. These people think reality tv is real.

 

[EricLA]

Funny how winning one game qualifies a team as being legitimate..
Let's take a closer look, shall we..? Who exactly did Louisville beat before winning against Oregon to escalate them prematurely from 8th to 2nd?

Any other ranked teams? No, not a single other ranked opponent!
Then I'm guessing the average margin of victory against those cupcakes should be impressive right? A mere 23 point average MOV.. not mid 30's or 40's or 50's

To be more specific

Western Kentucky by 19 ( who also Loss to unranked SMC by 17)
Murray State by 36 (who MSST beat 2 games later by 81 points)
CMU Central Michigan by 13 (1 game later lost by 35 to unranked Western Kentucky)
UTC Chattanooga by 49 (a team with only 1 win so far)
BSU Boise State by 16 (W-Kentucky beat them by 12)
UTA - Texas Arlington by 9 ( who Loss to Oregon by 37 and to unranked OKST by 15)
Oklahoma State by 21 (who also lost to Oregon by 17).

How in heaven's name could people with functioning brains really consider Louisville to be the second-best team in the country looking at that data.. Oh well, Ohio State took care of that for us, back to reality...

More than the pollsters, there were numerous silly fans on the BY who apparently are UCONN fans, yet still question whether UCONN is actually "deserving" of its' top 5 ranking.

That same OSU team that UCONN beat by 11 just beat the team that 5 days ago many were anointing as the best team in the nation.

UCONN has not looked like world beaters yet, but we were without Crystal for 2 games. Anna was briefly injured, and struggled big time coming out the gate. Cal Baptist outscored Stanford in Q's 1,3 and 4. If not for a 15 point margin in Q2, Stanford would not have squeaked past the now 7-4 Lancers (who by the way lost to Houston, of all teams, by 21 - gives you an idea of just how good they are).

There have been some great games already and some dramatic wins and upsets. It's going to be a fun year in WCBB. But it blows my mind that UCONN starts the season undefeated and is ranked #4 when teams #1 and #2 lose, and no one seems to believe UCONN should have jumped up to #2 right behind #1 Stanford. How much should Oregon drop now that they lost to the team that lost to the team that UCONN beat by 11?

 

[CL82]

More than the pollsters, there were numerous silly fans on the BY who apparently are UCONN fans, yet still question whether UCONN is actually "deserving" of its' top 5 ranking.

I think it is fair to question whether we are top five team, especially with Crystal out. Our lack of depth is notable and we are relying on freshman, two sophomores and two "recruited walk ons" to fill out the roster. Don't get me wrong I like our team, a lot, and extra minutes for Kyla, Molly, Aubrey and Anna now will pay dividends in the Spring, but it is fair to wonder how good we will be against top competition. We will find out soon enough.

 

[MainefanSC]

Yes, I watch the women’s game because the college and pro game is too much above the rim. Some people find that exciting. These people think reality tv is real.

Too funny! But, you are correct.

 

[oldude]

The great thing about WBB is that the polls really don’t matter for the 64 teams in the nation who make it into the Big Dance. Every one of those teams has an opportunity to win 6 games in a row in March/April and be able to legitimately declare, “We’re #1.”

 

[EricLA]

I think it is fair to question whether we are top five team, especially with Crystal out. Our lack of depth is notable and we are relying on freshman, two sophomores and two "recruited walk ons" to fill out the roster. Don't get me wrong I like our team, a lot, and extra minutes for Kyla, Molly, Aubrey and Anna now will pay dividends in the Spring, but it is fair to wonder how good we will be against top competition. We will find out soon enough.

I'm not talking about whether we are one of the best 5 in the nation right now, i'm talking about our ranking. Crystal is back so that's an invalid point. It's not like she's out for the season (like Westbrook is). Baylor is without Cox, their best player, and she's been gone for almost a month. Yet where is everyone questioning their ranking? They even have a loss to a team that starts 3 freshmen.

I guess it's just surprising that people are SO hard on UCONN, yet don't offer the same critical assessment of other top teams. It's more like excuses (oh well, they had a bad game - after Oregon lost, some STILL felt they should be #1. seriously???)

Just to recap...

1. Stanford lost 3 out of 4 quarters to Cal Baptiste, a team that lost to "middle of the road" Houston out of the American conference by 20 points.
2. Louisville leaped 6 spots to #2 in the rankings after beating Oregon - leapfrogging undefeated UCONN, and promptly lost to tOSU, a team UCONN already beat by 11.
3. Oregon State has a nice win over Miami (who is now sinking with losses to Depaul, OSU, and Indiana - no shame - all ranked teams), but OSU beat Pacific and Liberty by just over 10 points each. Not world beating performances.
4. SC has some nice wins - Maryland (who will fall out of the top 10 with another loss - this time to NC State), but beat Washington State by 15. They start 3 freshmen. Why aren't people being more skeptical of that? Uconn only starts 1 freshman...
5. A Cox-less Baylor beat USF by only 12 and lost to SC. But I don't see anyone calling for them to drop lower since USF in on a 3 game losing streak to 3 unranked (but solid) teams.

My point is, it's so early in the season, and I get UCONN fans want to be unbiased and fair, but it seems like some (including the pollsters) are holding UCONN to a higher standard. Yes we've had close games this season. but we are undefeated. And BTW, that Cal team we beat by double digits recently knocked off top 25 Arkansas. Aside from UCONN, Vandy has losses to Rutgers and Seton Hall by 4. They aren't a terrible team.

I already mentioned what tOSU did to L'ville, and Dayton, that team we destroyed by 40 without Crystal, got blitzed in the 1st Q by SC, then went on to play them to a 10 point deficit for the remaining 3 quarters, ultimately losing by 25 or so.

This season is definitely more of a struggle than I'd like. But when you compare us to other top teams, we are much more even (or better) than I think some are giving us credit for. And we haven't even hit our stride yet.

 

[Plebe]

I'm not talking about whether we are one of the best 5 in the nation right now, i'm talking about our ranking. Crystal is back so that's an invalid point. It's not like she's out for the season (like Westbrook is). Baylor is without Cox, their best player, and she's been gone for almost a month. Yet where is everyone questioning their ranking? They even have a loss to a team that starts 3 freshmen.

I guess it's just surprising that people are SO hard on UCONN, yet don't offer the same critical assessment of other top teams. It's more like excuses (oh well, they had a bad game - after Oregon lost, some STILL felt they should be #1. seriously???)

Just to recap...

1. Stanford lost 3 out of 4 quarters to Cal Baptiste, a team that lost to "middle of the road" Houston out of the American conference by 20 points.
2. Louisville leaped 6 spots to #2 in the rankings after beating Oregon - leapfrogging undefeated UCONN, and promptly lost to tOSU, a team UCONN already beat by 11.
3. Oregon State has a nice win over Miami (who is now sinking with losses to Depaul, OSU, and Indiana - no shame - all ranked teams), but OSU beat Pacific and Liberty by just over 10 points each. Not world beating performances.
4. SC has some nice wins - Maryland (who will fall out of the top 10 with another loss - this time to NC State), but beat Washington State by 15. They start 3 freshmen. Why aren't people being more skeptical of that? Uconn only starts 1 freshman...
5. A Cox-less Baylor beat USF by only 12 and lost to SC. But I don't see anyone calling for them to drop lower since USF in on a 3 game losing streak to 3 unranked (but solid) teams.

My point is, it's so early in the season, and I get UCONN fans want to be unbiased and fair, but it seems like some (including the pollsters) are holding UCONN to a higher standard. Yes we've had close games this season. but we are undefeated. And BTW, that Cal team we beat by double digits recently knocked off top 25 Arkansas. Aside from UCONN, Vandy has losses to Rutgers and Seton Hall by 4. They aren't a terrible team.

I already mentioned what tOSU did to L'ville, and Dayton, that team we destroyed by 40 without Crystal, got blitzed in the 1st Q by SC, then went on to play them to a 10 point deficit for the remaining 3 quarters, ultimately losing by 25 or so.

This season is definitely more of a struggle than I'd like. But when you compare us to other top teams, we are much more even (or better) than I think some are giving us credit for. And we haven't even hit our stride yet.

I don't know that UConn is held to a higher standard in the polls, but if that's the case, I would only take it as a compliment. UConn after all is the greatest program in the history of the sport, and it's only human to expect more from them and feel surprised that they're struggling against lesser competition. Hopefully the results over the course of the season will prove the naysayers wrong.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Oregon State has a nice win over Miami (who is now sinking with losses to Depaul, OSU, and Indiana - no shame - all ranked teams), but OSU beat Pacific and Liberty by just over 10 points each. Not world beating performances.

The closer than expected win over Liberty is the real head scratcher. I think Pacific is better than people realize. You're also leaving out wins over 2 more ranked teams--DePaul and Missouri St. (MSU wasn't ranked at the time but they are now). The wins over DePaul and Miami were both by 20+.

 

[LoTrader]

The closer than expected win over Liberty is the real head scratcher. I think Pacific is better than people realize. You're also leaving out wins over 2 more ranked teams--DePaul and Missouri St. (MSU wasn't ranked at the time but they are now). The wins over DePaul and Miami were both by 20+.

I'll echo that....Pacific was a fine basketball team. I was there at that game court side, and they are legit. And Missouri State was the best team Oregon State has played to date, and, confident in saying, that on any given night, Missouri State could beat any of the teams in the TOP 10.

 

[jaundicedeye]

It seems that we are almost at the point in WCBB where we can say, as they do in the NFL, "Any Given Sunday."
I believe that can be a good thing.
As parity increases ratings and rankings become less meaningful because it's all about the way opposing teams match up. Drawing favorable match-ups is critical in the NCAA tourney as in all play-offs.

 

[LoTrader]

It seems that we are almost at the point in WCBB where we can say, as they do in the NFL, "Any Given Sunday."
I believe that can be a good thing.
As parity increases ratings and rankings become less meaningful because it's all about the way opposing teams match up. Drawing favorable match-ups is critical in the NCAA tourney as in all play-offs.

Well said. I think at this point, those teams that experience multiple different styles of play & match-ups during the course of the season are going to best positioned come tournament time.

 

[huskyd]

The great thing about WBB is that the polls really don’t matter for the 64 teams in the nation who make it into the Big Dance. Every one of those teams has an opportunity to win 6 games in a row in March/April and be able to legitimately declare, “We’re #1.”

Right. The polls are to me what Scarlett O'Hara's troubles were to Rhett Butler. Teams rise and fall like dough. UConn beat ND on their home court last year by 18 points, but the Irish redeemed that loss and came close to winning it all. You really do have to consider who teams play to determine their merit. Maryland, for example, has a winning record built on schools with fewer than 2000 students. When it comes to SC or NCState, Brenda's minions collapse like a soufflé.
Someday we'll have to discuss which coach wastes more excellent talent/year than any other.

 

[Kaizen]

Massy has UConn ranked #1 after OSU beat Lousiville.

Massey Ratings - College Basketball Women's : NCAA D1 Ratings

Computer ratings and rankings for CBW (College Basketball Women's), with links to team predictions, scores, and schedules.

www.masseyratings.com

 

[willtalk]

I think the objection to Uconns high ranking was legit. It was based basically on who they had returning from last season. They were initially given a high rank based purely on the Uconn reputation and Geno. The first two games they had trouble with both Cal and Vanderbilt who were considered bottom dwellers in their respective leagues. Other than their victory over Ohio St they really have no signature wins. Ohio St win over Louisville is tainted by their inconsistency and losing to really bad teams themselves. Until they show more it might be considered a fluke.


While many of the other highly ranked teams have also not played tough schedules, they at least got their ranking based on the talent they returned. Returning talent is usually what most teams are ranked by early in the season. Early on that is all that those that rank have to go on so that is legitimate. How teams do as the season progresses only mitigates the initial rating that they start with. Based on logical evaluation returning players, Uconn was given a big benefit of the doubt ranking which has not really been validated at this point in time on their schedule despite the Ohio St upset of Louisville. Ohio St has not proven it is a top-level team yet via just one game. Their overall record is mediocre so far. History tells us that one game is never a good measure for the measure of a team. You are never as good as your best game or as bad as your worst.

Last week brought about quite a few upsets. It was just one of those weeks so we need to wait for more game results to put those wins and losses into perspective. As many have humorously pointed out, using comparative scores we can justify any team being the best team in the land. It seems like there is a bit much rationalization going on in order to promote premature conclusions about some team's relative strengths. I personally feel that valid ratings can not begin to form until teams have played at least five games and then it is still somewhat speculative. Teams that are rated highly to begin the season always have the advantage. It takes more to change perception that to initially create it.