Louisville Loses to ‘Cuse

[bballnut90]

South Carolina would have to drop multiple games to the also-rans of the SEC to screw up their #1 seed at this point.

There is a really huge gap in the resumes between the top 3 and the rest of the top 16.

I think they're likely in the clear....obviously that's assuming they win tomorrow. If they lost tomorrow and in the SEC tourney they still likely nab a 1 but I dont think it is a lock. Oregon still has some tough games left and likely 2 more tough games in the PAC 12 tourney.

 

[Plebe]

I think they're likely in the clear....obviously that's assuming they win tomorrow. If they lost tomorrow and in the SEC tourney they still likely nab a 1 but I dont think it is a lock. Oregon still has some tough games left and likely 2 more tough games in the PAC 12 tourney.

Even with a loss tomorrow, their resume is still miles ahead of everyone else's who would be in contention. They have the win over Baylor and a ton of top 50 wins. You're right, it isn't a lock, but it would take something dramatic like a Pac-12 team other than Oregon running the table in the last 3 weeks of the season and through the Pac-12 tournament.

 

[triaddukefan]

Even with a loss tomorrow, their resume is still miles ahead of everyone else's who would be in contention. They have the win over Baylor and a ton of top 50 wins. You're right, it isn't a lock, but it would take something dramatic like a Pac-12 team other than Oregon running the table in the last 3 weeks of the season and through the Pac-12 tournament.

is SC's victory over a certain unnamed team considered a top 50 win? Asking for a buddy

 

[Plebe]

is SC's victory over a certain unnamed team considered a top 50 win? Asking for a buddy

Hmmm, well it would help if I had some idea of which team your buddy has an affinity for

 

[triaddukefan]

Hmmm, well it would help if I had some idea of which team your buddy has an affinity for

<---- this team ..... South Carolina beat them early in the season

 

[triaddukefan]

Louisville might mess around and end up with the #2 seed in Greensboro.... which would be a more difficult path to an ACC championship.

 

[Plebe]

View attachment 50765 <---- this team ..... South Carolina beat them early in the season

Duke is #36 in the RPI, which is the committee's criterion for judging which opponents are top 50.

Duke is also #41 in Massey. No doubt they've been playing like a top 50 team in the past couple weeks. An NCAA tournament bid is a real possibility at this point.

 

[shiverz45]

Maryland also has 9 wins over the top 50, tied with Iowa for most in the country.

The strength of the Big Ten is helping them a lot this year. Their SOS is currently at #3, whereas it used to always be their achilles heel.

SC has the most in the country with 10 wins over the top 50.

 

[ConnecticutBB]

They're definitely in the mix. #5 massey and all losses right now are "good" losses, to Iowa/Northwestern/SC/NC State who are ranked #17, 12, 3, and 6. They have 2 good wins over Indiana (15 massey) and a win over Northwestern (12), plus potentially another win against Iowa who they play at home (17) and 1-2 more wins in the Big Ten tournament if they win their conference title. If UCONN loses tomorrow and MD wins out they'll have a better resume than the Huskies IMO.

Thanks for answering all my questions regarding Maryland scheduled wins. Maryland is known for not playing out of conference difficult games.

 

[mbr33ct]

Will the AP voter that has been voting Louisville for #1 switch allegiance and go all out for Oregon today?

 

[oldude]

In some ways, this year’s Louisville team reminds me of this year’s UConn team. The Cardinals generally play really good defense, but without Durr and Fuerhing, their offense can get stuck, and the team can struggle at times to score.

 

[Centerstream]

They're definitely in the mix. #5 massey and all losses right now are "good" losses, to Iowa/Northwestern/SC/NC State who are ranked #17, 12, 3, and 6. They have 2 good wins over Indiana (15 massey) and a win over Northwestern (12), plus potentially another win against Iowa who they play at home (17) and 1-2 more wins in the Big Ten tournament if they win their conference title. If UCONN loses tomorrow and MD wins out they'll have a better resume than the Huskies IMO.

And you are entitled to your opinion. And I could care less about Massey.
If we have the 3 losses that you are assuming that we could have, losing to the current #1, 2 and 3 teams is 100 times better than losing to Iowa and Northwestern.
But I must admit that I am posting on the BY because I am here as a UConn fan and nothing is going to change my opinion of this team!

 

[Centerstream]

Will the AP voter that has been voting Louisville for #1 switch allegiance and go all out for Oregon today?

That voter is Deb Antonelli and she admitted during the FSU loss that she wasn't voting them #1 again and then they lost to Syracuse. So...
I am guessing that she will vote for SC or maybe, to be a rebel, NC State.

 

[bballnut90]

And you are entitled to your opinion. And I could care less about Massey.
If we have the 3 losses that you are assuming that we could have, losing to the current #1, 2 and 3 teams is 100 times better than losing to Iowa and Northwestern.
But I must admit that I am posting on the BY because I am here as a UConn fan and nothing is going to change my opinion of this team!

100x better may be a stretch, especially since the first two are by 16 and 18 points at home. UCONN's best wins of the season are against DePaul and Tennessee. No one will have an idea of how good UCONN is since they havent played any peers all season long. It's been the top 3 juggernauts and almost all non tournament teams. Maryland had some losses earlier in the year but theyve faced a much greater number of teams in the 5-25 range. The committee likely respects MD having more quality wins. Chances are both end up in the same regional so in the end itll be a moot point if they meet in the Elite 8.

 

[Centerstream]

100x better may be a stretch, especially since the first two are by 16 and 18 points at home. UCONN's best wins of the season are against DePaul and Tennessee. No one will have an idea of how good UCONN is since they havent played any peers all season long. It's been the top 3 juggernauts and almost all non tournament teams. Maryland had some losses earlier in the year but theyve faced a much greater number of teams in the 5-25 range. The committee likely respects MD having more quality wins. Chances are both end up in the same regional so in the end itll be a moot point if they meet in the Elite 8.

Again, you are basing everything on Massey or some other analytics that are skewed from the start. They determined that the P5 conferences are better and so their algorithms/calculations are skewed in that direction. And the committee would rather have every at large team be from a P5 conference because ESPN only wants to televise "their" conferences, the P5.
So quote skewed analytics all you want, you will not sway my opinion. No way is MD on the same level as UConn, they are below it.

 

[shiverz45]

Will the AP voter that has been voting Louisville for #1 switch allegiance and go all out for Oregon today?

She actually voted SC #1 and dropped Louisville to #9.

 

[bballnut90]

Again, you are basing everything on Massey or some other analytics that are skewed from the start. They determined that the P5 conferences are better and so their algorithms/calculations are skewed in that direction. And the committee would rather have every at large team be from a P5 conference because ESPN only wants to televise "their" conferences, the P5.
So quote skewed analytics all you want, you will not sway my opinion. No way is MD on the same level as UConn, they are below it.

Well, what do you use to determine that UCONN is ahead of MD then should UCONN lose tonight and MD wins out until the NCAAs? Rankings? RPI? Bias?
Anything numbers based likely gives Maryland the edge. UCONN has won 2 games of relative significance all season (Tennessee and DePaul). Theyve lost by 16 and 18 at home to two of the top 3 teams in the country. Eye test is spotty too. Sometimes they look like a 1, other times they look borderline top 15. Watch the DePaul game for reference.

And have you watched Maryland lately? They're playing a lot better than they did at the beginning of the season. Fact is, whoever gets the 4th one seed is likely a massive step behind the top 3 so they arent going to be an obvious or popular choice. As of right now it appears there are 3 elite teams and a slew of good but not great teams in contention for the last 1 seed and the 2 seeds.

 

[Alydar]

Well, what do you use to determine that UCONN is ahead of MD then should UCONN lose tonight and MD wins out until the NCAAs? Rankings? RPI? Bias?
Anything numbers based likely gives Maryland the edge. UCONN has won 2 games of relative significance all season (Tennessee and DePaul). Theyve lost by 16 and 18 at home to two of the top 3 teams in the country. Eye test is spotty too. Sometimes they look like a 1, other times they look borderline top 15. Watch the DePaul game for reference.

And have you watched Maryland lately? They're playing a lot better than they did at the beginning of the season. Fact is, whoever gets the 4th one seed is likely a massive step behind the top 3 so they arent going to be an obvious or popular choice. As of right now it appears there are 3 elite teams and a slew of good but not great teams in contention for the last 1 seed and the 2 seeds.

I won't argue that UConn is better than MD. Both teams have played well and not so well. But MD is in no way a No 1 seed right now. MD has played exactly 1 top ten team and got beat. They have played exactly 2 top 15 teams and lost both. It's not the type of resume I am used to seeing for a 1 seed.

 

[Steelerone]

I think that Louisville just played themselves out of a #1 seed. It's one thing to lose to Baylor or Oregon, but to the Orange? As for what a team is seeded - no matter what it is when you lose the first game your next scheduled game is the following November.

 

[bballnut90]

I won't argue that UConn is better than MD. Both teams have played well and not so well. But MD is in no way a No 1 seed right now. MD has played exactly 1 top ten team and got beat. They have played exactly 2 top 15 teams and lost both. It's not the type of resume I am used to seeing for a 1 seed.

That's my point in the end of the post....who does have a #1 seed resume outside of the top 3? No one.

 

[mbr33ct]

That's my point in the end of the post....who does have a #1 seed resume outside of the top 3? No one.

Give it to the team that lost to them #1 seeds (IF UConn loses tonight).

 

[Centerstream]

Well, what do you use to determine that UCONN is ahead of MD then should UCONN lose tonight and MD wins out until the NCAAs? Rankings? RPI? Bias?
Anything numbers based likely gives Maryland the edge. UCONN has won 2 games of relative significance all season (Tennessee and DePaul). Theyve lost by 16 and 18 at home to two of the top 3 teams in the country. Eye test is spotty too. Sometimes they look like a 1, other times they look borderline top 15. Watch the DePaul game for reference.

And have you watched Maryland lately? They're playing a lot better than they did at the beginning of the season. Fact is, whoever gets the 4th one seed is likely a massive step behind the top 3 so they arent going to be an obvious or popular choice. As of right now it appears there are 3 elite teams and a slew of good but not great teams in contention for the last 1 seed and the 2 seeds.

How many times do I have to say that I am a UConn fan posting on a UConn forum? You are entitled to your opinion and so am I.
I made a comment about what someone said yesterday, not what MAY happen.

 

[Alydar]

You are right but I'd rather see the 4th

That's my point in the end of the post....who does have a #1 seed resume outside of the top 3? No one.

1 seed go to a team that has at least played a challenging schedule. Didn't I read somewhere that the NCAA is going to discount games played against cupcake opponents in their OOC schedule? IMO the 4th 1 seed should probably be another PAC12 team. The B12 is no better than the BE once you pass Baylor and the B1G & SEC, while competitive conferences with a lot of nice teams, can't hold a candle to the PAC12. The P12 teams play most of each other twice a year. The ACC and SEC schedule home and homes but they are more geographically set up. Tenn playing Vandi twice may be fun for the fans but it would help wcbb more if the top 3 or 4 teams played each other more. Why is Notre Dame playing BC twice every year? Isn't Louisville both closer and a more compelling opponent?
As a UConn fan I probably should hope that UConn goes to Ft Wayne. The seed is unimportant.

 

[bballnut90]

You are right but I'd rather see the 4th

1 seed go to a team that has at least played a challenging schedule. Didn't I read somewhere that the NCAA is going to discount games played against cupcake opponents in their OOC schedule? IMO the 4th 1 seed should probably be another PAC12 team. The B12 is no better than the BE once you pass Baylor and the B1G & SEC, while competitive conferences with a lot of nice teams, can't hold a candle to the PAC12. The P12 teams play most of each other twice a year. The ACC and SEC schedule home and homes but they are more geographically set up. Tenn playing Vandi twice may be fun for the fans but it would help wcbb more if the top 3 or 4 teams played each other more. Why is Notre Dame playing BC twice every year? Isn't Louisville both closer and a more compelling opponent?
As a UConn fan I probably should hope that UConn goes to Ft Wayne. The seed is unimportant.

I get where you're coming from, but Maryland right now has the #3 SOS in the country, ahead of anyone in the PAC besides Oregon and ahead of UCONN. Their SOS is so high because their schedule has a ton of teams in the 11-50 range, but to their credit, they've won 9 of those 11 games including 7 straight. They haven't proven they can beat top 10 teams though similar to UCONN.

If the PAC doesn't get 2 number 1 seeds, they'll be well represented in 2s and 3s. The problem for the PAC right now is that no one has emerged as a strong candidate to get a #1 seed aside from Oregon. Everyone has bad losses or just hasn't been able been able to separate themselves from the rest of the PAC aside from Oregon:

UCLA-bad non conference but a good win at Indiana, wins over Arizona schools and Stanford. Terrible loss to USC who wont be a tournament team. 2 huge games this weekend against Oregon schools. Could potentially work their way to a 1 if they beat Oregon State and make Pac 12 finals.

Stanford-good wins against Oregon State, Mississippi State and Gonzaga. Bad loss to Texas. Still have 4 big games vs Oregon schools and Arizona schools. Could work their way higher if they finish strong.

Oregon State-wins over DePaul and Arizona schools. 5 losses though and 2 tough road games ahead. Not in contention.

Arizona-split with UCLA and Oregon State, 2 losses to Oregon. I don't think it's enough unless they beat Stanford and home and have a great showing in Pac 12 tournament. Their OOC was horrific.



I think it ultimately will come down to if the committee values teams with good wins and bad losses (Pac 12 squads, Louisville), or if they prefer teams with very few marquee wins but has respectable losses (UCONN, Maryland, possibly NC State).

But back to your final point, if UCONN wins tonight, I think they've locked in a spot in Fort Wayne which is best case scenario for the Huskies, regardless if they're a 1 or 2.

 

[Alydar]

If the PAC doesn't get 2 number 1 seeds, they'll be well represented in 2s and 3s. The problem for the PAC right now is that no one has emerged as a strong candidate to get a #1 seed aside from Oregon. Everyone has bad losses or just hasn't been able been able to separate themselves from the rest of the PAC aside from Oregon:

UCLA-bad non conference but a good win at Indiana, wins over Arizona schools and Stanford. Terrible loss to USC who wont be a tournament team. 2 huge games this weekend against Oregon schools. Could potentially work their way to a 1 if they beat Oregon State and make Pac 12 finals.

Stanford-good wins against Oregon State, Mississippi State and Gonzaga. Bad loss to Texas. Still have 4 big games vs Oregon schools and Arizona schools. Could work their way higher if they finish strong.

Oregon State-wins over DePaul and Arizona schools. 5 losses though and 2 tough road games ahead. Not in contention.

Arizona-split with UCLA and Oregon State, 2 losses to Oregon. I don't think it's enough unless they beat Stanford and home and have a great showing in Pac 12 tournament. Their OOC was horrific.
.

If Jones returns for Stanford and they get to the PAC12 tournament title game they may get a 1. The committee discounts losses with key players out IF that player returns.
It also should be interesting to see what the committee does with the PAC12's site selection seeing how there could be 5 or even 6 PAC12 teams in the top 16 seeds.