Looking back on the ACC decision to take Louisville over UConn

[UConnSportsGuy]

Looking back on the ACC decision to take Louisville over UConn...while it absolutely sucks for UConn, I think it was the right strategic move for the ACC.

I think the ACC used a little bit of game thoery. They were looking at their ideal end-state and that is what at the end of the day drove their decision on UL (with the added benefit of the short term athletic success and the politiking that UL did).

I think the ACC's ideal end state in 15 years is a 16 team conference that includes Louisville, UConn, and Notre Dame as a full member. Obviously they would love to have a conference that has Penn St or Texas...but that is never going to happen. So the most ideal erealistic scenario is UL, UConn, and ND. However, it will be many years until ND joins as a full member (if ever at all). So the ACC could only take one team right now. If they took UConn, then Louisville and Cincinnati would be in the B12 right now. But in the ACC's eyes, there are no realistic options for UConn (they don't believe the UConn to B1G talk, and don't think the B12 will expand all of the way to the NE). So by taking UL instead of UConn, they essentially block the B12 from expanding to 12 teams and they keep alive the possibility of getting their ideal end-state when/if Notre Dame becomes a full member. If they took UConn, that would not be a possiblity and they would be stuck having to pick from USF/Temple/Houston for a 16th team when/if ND joins as a full member. Sucks for us, but that was the reality.


While I am still enraged that it went down the way it did...having taken a step back and with the benefit of time...it was the right move for the ACC. But the fact that our future prosperity hinges on 34 largely unrealistic things happening, it is very frightening. The four things that would save us from this leaking life-raft would be:

1. Notre Dame joining the ACC as a full member (at least 10 years away at the earliest)
2. B1G invite (the ideal situation for us...but not likely any time soon, if at all)
3. B12 gets desperate and invites UConn/Cincy to get to 12 (not likely either, unless the new playoffs mandate a 12 team league and championship game in a few years...even then we run the risk of the B12 picking two of Cincy/USF/BYU).
4. Texas blows up the B12 and all hell breaks lose in conference re-alignment (while very unlikely, I think this might be the most realistic to happen within the next 5 years).

 

[WestHartHusk]

Looking back on the ACC decision to take Louisville over UConn...while it absolutely sucks for UConn, I think it was the right strategic move for the ACC.

I think the ACC used a little bit of game thoery. They were looking at their ideal end-state and that is what at the end of the day drove their decision on UL (with the added benefit of the short term athletic success and the politiking that UL did).

I think the ACC's ideal end state in 15 years is a 16 team conference that includes Louisville, UConn, and Notre Dame as a full member. Obviously they would love to have a conference that has Penn St or Texas...but that is never going to happen. So the most ideal erealistic scenario is UL, UConn, and ND. However, it will be many years until ND joins as a full member (if ever at all). So the ACC could only take one team right now. If they took UConn, then Louisville and Cincinnati would be in the B12 right now. But in the ACC's eyes, there are no realistic options for UConn (they don't believe the UConn to B1G talk, and don't think the B12 will expand all of the way to the NE). So by taking UL instead of UConn, they essentially block the B12 from expanding to 12 teams and they keep alive the possibility of getting their ideal end-state when/if Notre Dame becomes a full member. If they took UConn, that would not be a possiblity and they would be stuck having to pick from USF/Temple/Houston for a 16th team when/if ND joins as a full member. Sucks for us, but that was the reality.


While I am still enraged that it went down the way it did...having taken a step back and with the benefit of time...it was the right move for the ACC. But the fact that our future prosperity hinges on 34 largely unrealistic things happening, it is very frightening. The four things that would save us from this leaking life-raft would be:

1. Notre Dame joining the ACC as a full member (at least 10 years away at the earliest)
2. B1G invite (the ideal situation for us...but not likely any time soon, if at all)
3. B12 gets desperate and invites UConn/Cincy to get to 12 (not likely either, unless the new playoffs mandate a 12 team league and championship game in a few years...even then we run the risk of the B12 picking two of Cincy/USF/BYU).
4. Texas blows up the B12 and all hell breaks lose in conference re-alignment (while very unlikely, I think this might be the most realistic to happen within the next 5 years).

I think you are giving the ACC far too much credit here.

 

[woomba]

1. Notre Dame joining the ACC as a full member (at least 10 years away at the earliest)

I'm not sure if this by itself would help UConn. Is the thinking here that UConn would be the shoe-in for #16 if ND goes in for #15 and there's zero chance ACC will look elsewhere?

 

[UPitt]

Looking back on the ACC decision to take Louisville over UConn...while it absolutely sucks for UConn, I think it was the right strategic move for the ACC.

I think the ACC used a little bit of game thoery. They were looking at their ideal end-state and that is what at the end of the day drove their decision on UL (with the added benefit of the short term athletic success and the politiking that UL did).

I think the ACC's ideal end state in 15 years is a 16 team conference that includes Louisville, UConn, and Notre Dame as a full member. Obviously they would love to have a conference that has Penn St or Texas...but that is never going to happen. So the most ideal erealistic scenario is UL, UConn, and ND. However, it will be many years until ND joins as a full member (if ever at all). So the ACC could only take one team right now. If they took UConn, then Louisville and Cincinnati would be in the B12 right now. But in the ACC's eyes, there are no realistic options for UConn (they don't believe the UConn to B1G talk, and don't think the B12 will expand all of the way to the NE). So by taking UL instead of UConn, they essentially block the B12 from expanding to 12 teams and they keep alive the possibility of getting their ideal end-state when/if Notre Dame becomes a full member. If they took UConn, that would not be a possiblity and they would be stuck having to pick from USF/Temple/Houston for a 16th team when/if ND joins as a full member. Sucks for us, but that was the reality.


While I am still enraged that it went down the way it did...having taken a step back and with the benefit of time...it was the right move for the ACC. But the fact that our future prosperity hinges on 34 largely unrealistic things happening, it is very frightening. The four things that would save us from this leaking life-raft would be:

1. Notre Dame joining the ACC as a full member (at least 10 years away at the earliest)
2. B1G invite (the ideal situation for us...but not likely any time soon, if at all)
3. B12 gets desperate and invites UConn/Cincy to get to 12 (not likely either, unless the new playoffs mandate a 12 team league and championship game in a few years...even then we run the risk of the B12 picking two of Cincy/USF/BYU).
4. Texas blows up the B12 and all hell breaks lose in conference re-alignment (while very unlikely, I think this might be the most realistic to happen within the next 5 years).

I said something similar to this a couple months ago. I would prefer to have Uconn as a member of the ACC over Louisville for several reasons that I listed before. But, at the time when the ACC selected Louisville over Uconn, I agreed with the decision. At that time, the ACC was fragile and many people were predicting that the ACC or Big 12 would dissolve to fill out 4 conferences of 16 to 20 teams. I believe the decision to choose Louisville had more to do with not allowing the Big 12 to expand, because the Big12 may have been also targeting ACC teams such as Clemson and FSU. I also agree with you that Louisville was chosen because the ACC believed that Uconn would not be targeted by the B1G, and that the ACC could use Uconn to fill out a spot if 1 or 3 teams defected the conference. Now that the dust has mostly settled and it looks like 5 power conferences will continue to exist, I believe the ACC and Big 12 would have been better off if the ACC expanded with Uconn, and Louisville and Cincy could be added to the Big 12 to make 12 teams.

 

[businesslawyer]

I'm not sure if this by itself would help UConn. Is the thinking here that UConn would be the shoe-in for #16 if ND goes in for #15 and there's zero chance ACC will look elsewhere?

Seriously -- what in life has a zero chance. I think the concensus is that if the Irish go all in (which will not happen unless they need to to qualify for a playoff), that UConn is, by far, the most likely choice to be #16.

 

[uconndogs]

NO! NO! NO! DO YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTEN!

I have it on good aurthority from Fr. Leahy that conference realignment is all about the academics......hence, duck*ing Louisville......

 

[uconndogs]

Seriously -- what in life has a zero chance. I think the concensus is that if the Irish go all in (which will not happen unless they need to to qualify for a playoff), that UConn is, by far, the most likely choice to be #16.

By far and away? I'm not so sure. If that coincides with the implosion of the B12, and a move by ND could trigger that, I could see a problem for us. Of course, then there would be a whole slew of us duking it out.

 

[UPitt]

I'm not sure if this by itself would help UConn. Is the thinking here that UConn would be the shoe-in for #16 if ND goes in for #15 and there's zero chance ACC will look elsewhere?

Seriously -- what in life has a zero chance. I think the concensus is that if the Irish go all in (which will not happen unless they need to to qualify for a playoff), that UConn is, by far, the most likely choice to be #16.

I believe Uconn is still the likely choice for the ACC if ND joins as a full member, but don't sleep on Cincy. Uconn seems superior to Cincy in just about every metric, but Cincy would provide an additional team from the eastern midwest region. I personally believe it is more valuable for the ACC to strengthen the Northeast region and add another team in with NYC ties, but the ACC hasn't exactly followed a logical pattern to date.

 

[pj]

I also said this months ago -- that clearly from the ACC's perspective Louisville and UConn were similar properties, and taking L'ville had the effect of hindering one route of B12 expansion and forcing the B12 to make their best offer to Florida State if they wanted to expand, before Florida State had to make a final commitment to the ACC.

If UConn ends up in the B1G the ACC will regret this, as we have a much larger media and fan base, and that will matter in the next round of TV negotiations 15 years from now. But for now, it hasn't hurt the ACC.

For UConn, the risk is that Temple, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, or Houston step up and become more attractive candidates whenever the next expansion round occurs.

 

[metsfan2323]

The decision will be a bad one for the ACC if we do get a B1G invite. BC and Syracuse will be second class, small time private school football compared to UCONN and Rutgers. We will also be able to thank BC for blocking us from the ACC which will feel great and would be well worth the wait.

 

[UPitt]

I also said this months ago -- that clearly from the ACC's perspective Louisville and UConn were similar properties, and taking L'ville had the effect of hindering one route of B12 expansion and forcing the B12 to make their best offer to Florida State if they wanted to expand, before Florida State had to make a final commitment to the ACC.

If UConn ends up in the B1G the ACC will regret this, as we have a much larger media and fan base, and that will matter in the next round of TV negotiations 15 years from now. But for now, it hasn't hurt the ACC.

For UConn, the risk is that Temple, Cincinnati, USF, UCF, or Houston step up and become more attractive candidates whenever the next expansion round occurs.

Or maybe sooner than 15 years. The B1G TV negotiations are going on right now and will continue for the next couple years. I think with AAU membership, Uconn would be in the B1G because Delany wants NYC to be a factor in TV negotiations.

 

[junglehusky]

Tangentially related but I'll put it here... Syracuse football got a collective "huh?" from the ACC media:

As the interview sessions in Greensboro progressed, it became clear that the rest of the ACC media has very little interest in, or knowledge of, Syracuse. On Sunday, when center Macky MacPherson and defensive tackle Jay Bromley fielded questions in the same round-table setting as Shafer, the cluster of reporters around them featured mostly Syracuse media. And the outsiders that did wander over asked almost exclusively generic inquiries about joining a new conference. Or Drew Allen. That's about it.

One media member -- he apologized for potential ignorance beforehand -- even asked MacPherson if he was related to the former SU head coach Dick MacPherson. The question elicited cackles from the two Syracuse athletic communications staffers sitting behind the table.
Shafer's session Monday yielded the same off-on-an-island sensation. He was scheduled to meet with reporters from 5:09 p.m. to 6 p.m. before boarding a flight back to Syracuse. But Shafer, who demands that his players be on time for meetings and practices as a display of respect and character, was the last coach to arrive and the first coach to leave.

It felt strange.

Granted, if it was UConn in there instead of them or Pitt, the reaction would have been the same. But hey I gotta take my schadenfreude any way I can get it.

 

[frankthetank]

I think you are giving the ACC far too much credit here.

Actually, I think he's giving the ACC a very appropriate amount of credit. They took an asset off the table (Louisville) that they knew full well was looked at heavily by the Big 12. That might not have been the #1 reason why the ACC took Louisville, but it was definitely a prominent reason that the ACC was fully aware of. John Swofford might be a lot of things, but nothing that he does happens by accident. The guy is a heck of a lot smarter than what a lot of conference realignment want to give him credit for.

 

[pj]

Actually, I think he's giving the ACC a very appropriate amount of credit. They took an asset off the table (Louisville) that they knew full well was looked at heavily by the Big 12. That might not have been the #1 reason why the ACC took Louisville, but it was definitely a prominent reason that the ACC was fully aware of. John Swofford might be a lot of things, but nothing that he does happens by accident. The guy is a heck of a lot smarter than what a lot of conference realignment want to give him credit for.

He is clever, not smart. All of the ACC's moves have been reactionary and based on short-term motives. Louisville is a great illustration.

 

[UPitt]

He is clever, not smart. All of the ACC's moves have been reactionary and based on short-term motives. Louisville is a great illustration.

Many of his moves have been reactionary, but that is because his conference has been in a position of defense for quite some time. The ACC and Big East were in positions of power when basketball was a more dominant sport compared to football. Look at the late 70s, 80s, and early 90s. Remember when PSU was not good enough to be in a league with Pitt and Uconn. As the football / basketball gap grew in the 90s and 2000s, the position of power in the ACC and Big East began to decline. The Big East has since folded and the ACC has taken a position of defense which requires it to be reactionary. The Big 12 is also in a similar position due to the unstable nature of the conference created by Texas.

But being proactive or reactionary does not define the job Swoffard has done. Many people, myself included, doubted his leadership last fall, but I would argue that he was as clever and smart as anyone when it came to stabilizing the ACC. He played the cards he was dealt, and has found a way to stabilize and strengthen a conference that many people considered to be written off last fall.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Swofford will look like a genius if at the end of the day if the ACC gets both ND and UConn while holding into UNC and the football troika. If UNC bolts (SEC or B1G) and/or the B1G squeezes the ACC out of the country’s largest TV market, i.e. NYC, with Rutgers on one side and UConn on the other with a lot of other alumni bases sprinkled in between, he will look like a fool.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

I'm not sure if this by itself would help UConn. Is the thinking here that UConn would be the shoe-in for #16 if ND goes in for #15 and there's zero chance ACC will look elsewhere?

Yes, that's the theory. Where are they realistically going to look, other than UConn, Cincinnati, and maybe USF. They're not getting anyone from the B1G, so forget that. Is anyone from the SEC looking to jump ship? Perhaps Vanderbilt, but even then, the notion of a school leaving the SEC to go to the ACC doesn't make much logical or financial sense. That leaves really the only viable options as the top-value AAC schools, UConn, Cincinnati, and USF. USF is a redundant market and are piss poor at basketball, so they'd be a longshot. Cincinnati is better competitively at football overall than we are, but are academically substandard and behind us in basketball. Were this scenario to play out, (it won't anytime soon - ND joining as a full member is a pipe dream) I would bet my money on the academic-leaning ACC schools such as UVA, Duke, UNC, Wake, etc. not wanting another Louisville-level academic school in their conference, and want to continue to bolster the basketball side of the league, and not cave to Clemson and FSU, who likely would pine for Cincinnati. But again, the odds of this happening some time in the next five years are about 1,000 to 1.

 

[Adios]

USF and UCF are probably for whatever conference forms when Texas leaves and Iowa State needs a home. I definitely wouldn't underestimate Houston.

 

[The Funster]

He is clever, not smart. All of the ACC's moves have been reactionary and based on short-term motives. Louisville is a great illustration.

The fact that the ACC has Louisville when it could have had WVU tells you everything you need to know about Swofford's thought process.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think we should all have a thread where each poster should talk about the hottest girl that showed any interest in him in college where he then proceeded to blow it. That would make us all feel better than this train wreck of a thread.

 

[The Funster]

Swofford will look like a genius if at the end of the day if the ACC gets both ND and UConn while holding into UNC and the football troika. If UNC bolts (SEC or B1G) and/or the B1G squeezes the ACC out of the country’s largest TV market, i.e. NYC, with Rutgers on one side and UConn on the other with a lot of other alumni bases sprinkled in between, he will look like a fool.

It will be a long time before ND joins a conference.

 

[huskypantz]

Swofford will look like a genius if at the end of the day if the ACC gets both ND and UConn while holding into UNC and the football troika. If UNC bolts (SEC or B1G) and/or the B1G squeezes the ACC out of the country’s largest TV market, i.e. NYC, with Rutgers on one side and UConn on the other with a lot of other alumni bases sprinkled in between, he will look like a fool.

If UConn can continue to gain momentum, a move to the B1G would be a significant blow to the ACC for the NYC and New England media markets. However, if the ACC took UConn and FSU decided to leave for the B12 as a result, he would have looked like a bigger fool.

 

[larryredbull]

The fact that the ACC has Louisville when it could have had WVU tells you everything you need to know about Swofford's thought process.

We didnt want those inbred idiots in our conference then and still don't. The SEC had the same opinion. Louisville is infinity times better than those couch burning rednecks.

 

[larryredbull]

Swofford will look like a genius if at the end of the day if the ACC gets both ND and UConn while holding into UNC and the football troika. If UNC bolts (SEC or B1G) and/or the B1G squeezes the ACC out of the country’s largest TV market, i.e. NYC, with Rutgers on one side and UConn on the other with a lot of other alumni bases sprinkled in between, he will look like a fool.

Swofford already looks like a genius and this is coming from someone who doesn't like him. At the end of the day he managed to keep the ACC intact almost whole (I consider the Turtles leaving and getting Louisville a positive move). Secured additional money by getting Notre Dame to play 5 ACC schools a year and the potential for them to join the ACC at some point, got all universities to sign a GOR, and secured a seat at the big boy table for the ACC.

Everyone was just certain that FSU and Clemson were heading to the Big 12, UNC,UVA, and Ga Tech to the B1G, and Va Tech and NC State to the SEC but none of those left. Regardless of what happens in the future, the narative for Swofford is that he successfully navigated Conference realignment for the ACC and made them better. He wont be around in 2026 when the GOR expires so that will be someone else legacy if anything positive or negative changes.

 

[cardsfan123]

The fact that the ACC has Louisville when it could have had WVU tells you everything you need to know about Swofford's thought process.

There are significant cultural differences between WVU and the ACC that will never ever ever go away, specifically between North Carolina and West Virginia. The ACC has turned down WVU about a dozen times over the last 50 years, maybe more. They wouldn't take WVU even if it led to the death of the conference.

I know I've been tough on UConn but a lot of it is frustration when you guys badmouth Louisville incessantly. To be honest, I'd like to see UConn round out the ACC if Notre Dame ever became a full member.