Phil
Stats Geek
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Everyone here is familiar with the sports adage "a win is a win" but to my surprise (if one can trust AI which is always suspect) it's relatively recent:
"Pre-2010 instances are rare or anecdotal in broad web/news/book searches; the phrase doesn't show up prominently in older sports literature or quotes from coaches/players in the 20th century.
However, with the implementation of the quad system, not all winds are equal. I wasn't unaware of this fact, but it was my vague guess that it would not be particularly important. I took a brief glance at UConn schedule and there were more instances where it was important than I would've guessed.
Let me get one thing out of the way. If any team wins a game by 2 points against a team ranked say 40 or so at home, and says that qualifies as a quad 2 win, too bad we didn't play them at their place. Obviously, things could be very different in a two point win at home is very likely to be a loss on the road.
That said let's look at some of UConn's results:
Louisville, Ohio State and Iowa are easy. Quad 1 wins, and little doubt they'd be a win if played on their home court.
Michigan is interesting because it's a three point win on a neutral court. Massey has home court advantage about 2 1/2 points, so a game at Michigan might have been a different result.
USC is a Quad 1 win because it was played at their court. Playing at home makes it more likely for a win but with a net rating of 29 it would've dropped into quad 2.
Villanova is a Quad 2 win, because it was played at home in their net rating is 35. That would be a Quad 1 win (just barely) on a neutral court, or clealry if played at their house. I don't think anyone doubts we would not give up our 49 point margin if we played at their place.
Utah is a Quad 2 win, because it was played at a neutral court. With a 52 point margin of victory, I feel safe in saying that had been played on their court they would still be a win and it would then count as a quad 2 win. This one's especially interesting because while we obviously can't change where the game was played, Utah at number 42 only needs to climb seven places to requalify this as a quad 1 win. Let's all be commutes fans cheer for them to win a few games. They are likely to beat Houston, they have favored over Texas Tech, and if they could follow that up with a win over West Virginia that might move them into quad one territory for UConn.
Seton Hall is a Quad 2 win, because it was played at home. It would just barely qualify as a Quad 1 if played at their place (and assuming it was still a win)
Marquette and South Florida are quad 2 wins, and changing location wouldn't change the category. That said, Marquette is on the borderline of quad 2, if they dropped even a single spot they become quad 3
Creighton is a quad 3 win. Here is a case where playing them at home would hurt as it will then be a quad 4.
Florida State is a Quad 4 win. Played at neutral court or away it would move up to a quad 3 win.
St. John's is a Quad 4 win.Played away it would move up to a quad 3 win.
Butler is a Quad 4 win. They are ranked 143 so they have to move up to 130 to become a quad 3 win. It may not happen but it's quite plausible — Massey has them ranked at 127 so they don't even have to get better, they just need to win a few games against Big East teams.
The remaining four games are all solidly quad 4.
As of 18 games, eight are a virtual lock, meaning it wouldn't matter where the game was played, or how the team does the rest of the season (within reason) the quad ranking is fixed.
Opponents where location matter
Michigan Quad 1 , could be a loss if played on road
USC Quad 1, would be Quad 2 if played at home
Villanova Quad 2 would be Quad 1 if played on road
Seton Hall Quad 2 would be Quad 1 if played on road
Creighton Quad 3 would be Quad 4 if played at home
Florida State Quad 4 would be Quad 3 if played on road
St. John's Quad 4 win would be Quad 3 if played on road
The fat lady hasn't yet sung
Utah Quad 2 Could become quad 1 if they perform well
Marquette Quad 2 Could become quad 3 if they stumble
Butler Quad 4 Could become quad 3 if they perform well
"Pre-2010 instances are rare or anecdotal in broad web/news/book searches; the phrase doesn't show up prominently in older sports literature or quotes from coaches/players in the 20th century.
However, with the implementation of the quad system, not all winds are equal. I wasn't unaware of this fact, but it was my vague guess that it would not be particularly important. I took a brief glance at UConn schedule and there were more instances where it was important than I would've guessed.
Let me get one thing out of the way. If any team wins a game by 2 points against a team ranked say 40 or so at home, and says that qualifies as a quad 2 win, too bad we didn't play them at their place. Obviously, things could be very different in a two point win at home is very likely to be a loss on the road.
That said let's look at some of UConn's results:
Louisville, Ohio State and Iowa are easy. Quad 1 wins, and little doubt they'd be a win if played on their home court.
Michigan is interesting because it's a three point win on a neutral court. Massey has home court advantage about 2 1/2 points, so a game at Michigan might have been a different result.
USC is a Quad 1 win because it was played at their court. Playing at home makes it more likely for a win but with a net rating of 29 it would've dropped into quad 2.
Villanova is a Quad 2 win, because it was played at home in their net rating is 35. That would be a Quad 1 win (just barely) on a neutral court, or clealry if played at their house. I don't think anyone doubts we would not give up our 49 point margin if we played at their place.
Utah is a Quad 2 win, because it was played at a neutral court. With a 52 point margin of victory, I feel safe in saying that had been played on their court they would still be a win and it would then count as a quad 2 win. This one's especially interesting because while we obviously can't change where the game was played, Utah at number 42 only needs to climb seven places to requalify this as a quad 1 win. Let's all be commutes fans cheer for them to win a few games. They are likely to beat Houston, they have favored over Texas Tech, and if they could follow that up with a win over West Virginia that might move them into quad one territory for UConn.
Seton Hall is a Quad 2 win, because it was played at home. It would just barely qualify as a Quad 1 if played at their place (and assuming it was still a win)
Marquette and South Florida are quad 2 wins, and changing location wouldn't change the category. That said, Marquette is on the borderline of quad 2, if they dropped even a single spot they become quad 3
Creighton is a quad 3 win. Here is a case where playing them at home would hurt as it will then be a quad 4.
Florida State is a Quad 4 win. Played at neutral court or away it would move up to a quad 3 win.
St. John's is a Quad 4 win.Played away it would move up to a quad 3 win.
Butler is a Quad 4 win. They are ranked 143 so they have to move up to 130 to become a quad 3 win. It may not happen but it's quite plausible — Massey has them ranked at 127 so they don't even have to get better, they just need to win a few games against Big East teams.
The remaining four games are all solidly quad 4.
As of 18 games, eight are a virtual lock, meaning it wouldn't matter where the game was played, or how the team does the rest of the season (within reason) the quad ranking is fixed.
Opponents where location matter
Michigan Quad 1 , could be a loss if played on road
USC Quad 1, would be Quad 2 if played at home
Villanova Quad 2 would be Quad 1 if played on road
Seton Hall Quad 2 would be Quad 1 if played on road
Creighton Quad 3 would be Quad 4 if played at home
Florida State Quad 4 would be Quad 3 if played on road
St. John's Quad 4 win would be Quad 3 if played on road
The fat lady hasn't yet sung
Utah Quad 2 Could become quad 1 if they perform well
Marquette Quad 2 Could become quad 3 if they stumble
Butler Quad 4 Could become quad 3 if they perform well