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I'm not Mau, but I think what you have to keep in mind about Calipari is that out of his 9 final four games he's coached in, he's been favored in 8 of them. And he's only 4-4 in those games. Izzo hasn't been favored in a FF game since 2000(can't find data going back further than 2001). Roy is 5-3. Calhoun was 4-1.
Obviously the spread isn't the end all be all, but Calipari's dropped probably 2 games in the final four that he shouldn't have. Not to mention the 2010 EE loss to WVU, which looked bad at the time and will look worse as time goes on and Wall and Cousins' NBA careers play out.
The Cal numbers regarding the spread are a bit flimsy given that three of the match-ups he was favored in (both games vs. us, and the '08 title vs. Kansas) were essentially toss-ups, and he was actually the lower of the seeds in two of them.
He got outcoached against Wisconsin, I won't disagree with you there. As far as 2011 is concerned, that was basically a complete rock fight, and in 2014 I just don't think they were that good (if you're into the point spreads, he won two games as underdogs to get there).