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For as ugly as things can get at times, it has been surprisingly enjoyable to watch this team over the last couple games. We're in the awkward position, as fans, as watching these games with two eyes, one towards the future and one towards the present. And, much as it may behoove us to rid ourselves from expectation and see these games as building blocks, it's impossible to separate those interests from the seniors, who have given us a lot. They're not going to be here next year or the year after, so even if these games matter very little to the long-term success of the program, I still want very much for them to win them because I know they do. I'll try to address both the short and long term ramifications of some recent trends.
The bad:
- East Carolina, South Florida, and Tulane rank 198th, 283rd, and 261st, respectively, in the country, per KenPom. For reference sake, about half of America East ranks higher than all of them. Even though this is our fourth year in the American, I'm not sure people truly understand how bad some of these teams at the bottom of this league are (granted, the worst of the bunch, South Florida, was a Big East leftover). I'm going to need to see more, like a real fight against SMU or Cincinnati, before I start waxing poetic about the grit and the fight and the resilience, even if we do have six players. I want them to earn it, not because I'm particularly authoritative sitting on my couch but because I think it undermines what teams like the 2013-14 group did when you start loosely tossing around comparisons. Call me a cynic - I appreciate the effort, but the parade this squad has gotten for beating exactly two top 100 opponents all year isn't yet justified.
- The dash to declare Adams a great player has been a bit premature, in my opinion. He is shooting 35% in conference play and 38% on the season if you take out three games worth of extended garbage time in Maui. Now of course that's not entirely fair - you could take out his three worse games and see a similar uptick in efficiency, and he's carrying a ridiculous workload, both in terms of minutes and usage. But he still doesn't trust his jump shot (the color guy pointed this out last night), he's fairly middling defensively, and his free throw rate is surprisingly low for somebody who attacks the basket like he does. That said...
- He's simply looked exhausted at times. I realize Ollie's hand has been forced, but he needs to do a better job of finding him two minutes of rest each half. He's not Kemba - kid isn't in good enough shape to be playing 40 minutes.
- Last comment on Jalen. The short shorts. Is there a reason? Not judging just curious.
- Defense. This is the biggest negative to me. Fatigue or not, the defense of the three point line has been mostly bad against three bad offenses. On this note...
- Vital and Jackson have gotta start figuring it out defensively. We're 20 games into the season now and the youth excuse won't fly, not when there are several other teams relying on freshman to support top-flight defenses and not when everything else is there - three seniors, all of whom have performed well - from an infrastructure standpoint to help simplify their roles. They are lethargic off the ball to the point that I wonder if Ollie needs to tap into his inner Calhoun a little more. That's not a hot take where I'm suggesting Ollie isn't enough of a disciplinarian, but sometimes you wonder if it would help him out to be just a little bit worse of a human being. Maybe Vital and Jackson start maintaining focus better if you threaten to punt them to the sun the next time they give up a three, you know? This group needs to be better than 48th in defense if they're going to accomplish anything.
- Brimah is never not going to pick up dumb fouls.
The good:
- Brimah wouldn't be a maddening player if he wasn't typically good when he was out there. There will be wily teams that take advantage of him with slip passes (you saw Dunleavy adjust after he blocked like five shots in the first four minutes last night and have his guards drive to pass rather than score), but that's on the other guys as much as it is him. I also like how, collectively, they're looking for him more on those lobs. It's there, always has been.
- Assuming we're able to play the type of game flows that hinge on contested twos, I like our chances, because Facey just kills it on those high-rising turn-around shots in the post. I also like the way Facey and Brimah have been attacking the offensive glass.
- Speaking of Facey, he's slowly but surly growing more comfortable with his back to the basket. It's simple stuff (seizing up the defender while allowing cutters to run through and unclog the paint), but important. If he can start finding shooters across the floor, then we'll really have something. Meanwhile, Brimah made a move last night, where he lined his man up like he was going over this left shoulder, then drop stepped to draw a foul, that I don't think I've seen from him at all in the past. He's also turned it around from the line in a big way - you have to give the staff credit, they - and Miller in particular, if we're to believe the reports - have been free throw whisperers for a while now.
- I really like Vital, to the point that people I watch the games with am wondering why I keep randomly talking about how much I like him several times per game. His shooting has been one thing, but at this point he has emerged as a desperately needed secondary facilitator. Other than D-Ham, I can't remember our last non-point guard freshman that saw the floor this well. I'm at the point where I trust this kid to run the point in pinches to spell Adams.
- Purvis has quietly - and I do mean quietly - been good the last three games. His solution to his ailments seems to be deferring to his teammates, playing defense, and facilitating off drives. You have to give him a lot of credit for his selflessness.
- I wouldn't be surprised if Vance was indeed hobbled, an it's unsurprising that defenses have adjusted to him a bit. I think you're better off guarding him with a smaller guy, and we make that easy when we play him at the three. I'd actually like to get him a few post touches if possible - he has good foot work down there and he's a much better passer than I anticipated.
It is difficult to envision this team winning three games in three days - much less four in four - against quality competition given what we have seen this season, even if it is in Hartford. I can see them winning one, though, and when you win one, the bracket can open up. Save our last three opponents, this is a fairly competitive league and there is no guarantee that the SMU's and Cincinnati's of the world even survive the quarterfinals, especially if they're playing more desperate teams. I could easily see Temple or UCF springing an upset in the conference tournament.
Certainly, there is a lot of basketball to be played before then, seven of those nine games coming against quality competition, and two of them - SMU on the 25th and Cincinnati on the 5th - home games on CBS that will potentially forewarn the preciously meaningful basketball that will take place in Hartford one week later. That's one of the reasons that college basketball is my favorite sport. You're not dead until you lose your final game, and this team - despite my cautioning - is not dead yet. I urge you all to join me on these particular dates because this team has earned that much. It matters a lot, even if it seems like it doesn't in what has felt like a wasted season. It matters to be able to sit there, knowing you're watching the final games of careers, and lose yourself in the micro spectrum of playing for another day, another opponent, another trip. That's what it's all about as a fan - compartmentalizing all of the bad and realizing that you're three or four days of good basketball away from hearing your name called on Sunday. That's the goal. And when we accomplish that goal, it is going to feel really good, knowing everything that's happened. The dream is anything that happens after that.
The bad:
- East Carolina, South Florida, and Tulane rank 198th, 283rd, and 261st, respectively, in the country, per KenPom. For reference sake, about half of America East ranks higher than all of them. Even though this is our fourth year in the American, I'm not sure people truly understand how bad some of these teams at the bottom of this league are (granted, the worst of the bunch, South Florida, was a Big East leftover). I'm going to need to see more, like a real fight against SMU or Cincinnati, before I start waxing poetic about the grit and the fight and the resilience, even if we do have six players. I want them to earn it, not because I'm particularly authoritative sitting on my couch but because I think it undermines what teams like the 2013-14 group did when you start loosely tossing around comparisons. Call me a cynic - I appreciate the effort, but the parade this squad has gotten for beating exactly two top 100 opponents all year isn't yet justified.
- The dash to declare Adams a great player has been a bit premature, in my opinion. He is shooting 35% in conference play and 38% on the season if you take out three games worth of extended garbage time in Maui. Now of course that's not entirely fair - you could take out his three worse games and see a similar uptick in efficiency, and he's carrying a ridiculous workload, both in terms of minutes and usage. But he still doesn't trust his jump shot (the color guy pointed this out last night), he's fairly middling defensively, and his free throw rate is surprisingly low for somebody who attacks the basket like he does. That said...
- He's simply looked exhausted at times. I realize Ollie's hand has been forced, but he needs to do a better job of finding him two minutes of rest each half. He's not Kemba - kid isn't in good enough shape to be playing 40 minutes.
- Last comment on Jalen. The short shorts. Is there a reason? Not judging just curious.
- Defense. This is the biggest negative to me. Fatigue or not, the defense of the three point line has been mostly bad against three bad offenses. On this note...
- Vital and Jackson have gotta start figuring it out defensively. We're 20 games into the season now and the youth excuse won't fly, not when there are several other teams relying on freshman to support top-flight defenses and not when everything else is there - three seniors, all of whom have performed well - from an infrastructure standpoint to help simplify their roles. They are lethargic off the ball to the point that I wonder if Ollie needs to tap into his inner Calhoun a little more. That's not a hot take where I'm suggesting Ollie isn't enough of a disciplinarian, but sometimes you wonder if it would help him out to be just a little bit worse of a human being. Maybe Vital and Jackson start maintaining focus better if you threaten to punt them to the sun the next time they give up a three, you know? This group needs to be better than 48th in defense if they're going to accomplish anything.
- Brimah is never not going to pick up dumb fouls.
The good:
- Brimah wouldn't be a maddening player if he wasn't typically good when he was out there. There will be wily teams that take advantage of him with slip passes (you saw Dunleavy adjust after he blocked like five shots in the first four minutes last night and have his guards drive to pass rather than score), but that's on the other guys as much as it is him. I also like how, collectively, they're looking for him more on those lobs. It's there, always has been.
- Assuming we're able to play the type of game flows that hinge on contested twos, I like our chances, because Facey just kills it on those high-rising turn-around shots in the post. I also like the way Facey and Brimah have been attacking the offensive glass.
- Speaking of Facey, he's slowly but surly growing more comfortable with his back to the basket. It's simple stuff (seizing up the defender while allowing cutters to run through and unclog the paint), but important. If he can start finding shooters across the floor, then we'll really have something. Meanwhile, Brimah made a move last night, where he lined his man up like he was going over this left shoulder, then drop stepped to draw a foul, that I don't think I've seen from him at all in the past. He's also turned it around from the line in a big way - you have to give the staff credit, they - and Miller in particular, if we're to believe the reports - have been free throw whisperers for a while now.
- I really like Vital, to the point that people I watch the games with am wondering why I keep randomly talking about how much I like him several times per game. His shooting has been one thing, but at this point he has emerged as a desperately needed secondary facilitator. Other than D-Ham, I can't remember our last non-point guard freshman that saw the floor this well. I'm at the point where I trust this kid to run the point in pinches to spell Adams.
- Purvis has quietly - and I do mean quietly - been good the last three games. His solution to his ailments seems to be deferring to his teammates, playing defense, and facilitating off drives. You have to give him a lot of credit for his selflessness.
- I wouldn't be surprised if Vance was indeed hobbled, an it's unsurprising that defenses have adjusted to him a bit. I think you're better off guarding him with a smaller guy, and we make that easy when we play him at the three. I'd actually like to get him a few post touches if possible - he has good foot work down there and he's a much better passer than I anticipated.
It is difficult to envision this team winning three games in three days - much less four in four - against quality competition given what we have seen this season, even if it is in Hartford. I can see them winning one, though, and when you win one, the bracket can open up. Save our last three opponents, this is a fairly competitive league and there is no guarantee that the SMU's and Cincinnati's of the world even survive the quarterfinals, especially if they're playing more desperate teams. I could easily see Temple or UCF springing an upset in the conference tournament.
Certainly, there is a lot of basketball to be played before then, seven of those nine games coming against quality competition, and two of them - SMU on the 25th and Cincinnati on the 5th - home games on CBS that will potentially forewarn the preciously meaningful basketball that will take place in Hartford one week later. That's one of the reasons that college basketball is my favorite sport. You're not dead until you lose your final game, and this team - despite my cautioning - is not dead yet. I urge you all to join me on these particular dates because this team has earned that much. It matters a lot, even if it seems like it doesn't in what has felt like a wasted season. It matters to be able to sit there, knowing you're watching the final games of careers, and lose yourself in the micro spectrum of playing for another day, another opponent, another trip. That's what it's all about as a fan - compartmentalizing all of the bad and realizing that you're three or four days of good basketball away from hearing your name called on Sunday. That's the goal. And when we accomplish that goal, it is going to feel really good, knowing everything that's happened. The dream is anything that happens after that.