Last 2 #1 seeds

[Vowelguy]

Interesting battle. The contenders:

LOUISVILLE
4-2 against RPI 50 / 1-2 against RPI 25 (LSU)
Bad losses: None
Remaining quality games: Rutgers, UConn

SO CAROLINA
3-2 against RPI 50 / 3-1 against RPI 25 (Vandy 2x, Kentucky)
Bad losses: None
Remaining quality games: @LSU, @Ky, Fla, @Tenn

TENNESSEE
8-4 against RPI 50 / 3-4 against RPI 25 (Vandy, TxA&M, Texas)
Bad losses: None
Remaining quality games: Ky, @LSU, SC

DUKE
9-3 against RPI 50 / 5-2 against RPI 25 (Vandy, Cal, Purdue, Syr, Ky)
Bad losses: None
Remaining quality games: Md, NC St, @ND, @UNC
Note: 1-2 against RPI 50 since Gray's injury + 2 close games with RPI > 75

STANFORD
9-1 against RPI 50 / 6-1 against RPI 25 (Cal 2x, Tex, Pur, Tenn, Ariz St)
Bad losses: Washington
Remaining quality games: Ariz St

BAYLOR
5-2 against RPI 50 / 4-2 against RPI 25 (Okl St 2x, Tex, WV)
Bad losses: Kansas
Remaining quality games: @Tex, Okla, WV
​

Based on above, if Stan can win out and win the PAC title, I think they're a #1. SC has a tough road to win the rest of their games. TN winning the SEC title might put them back in contention. Duke has a strong resume, but their performance w/o Gray has not been solid. Their remaining sked will test that -- 3-1 and they could be a #1; 1-3 and they could fall to a #4.


(fyi for the purposes here, "bad loss" is a loss to a team with RPI > 50; quality games are vs RPI <50)

 

[Fightin Choke]

VG, I think you mean Duke is 9-3 vs. RPI top 50 (losses to UConn, ND, and UNC).

 

[DobbsRover2]

Good summary, with Stanford and Louisville having the least amount of potentially problematic games. But much of the determination about the #1 seeds will likely come this year from the unknowns of the conference tournaments, just like Purdue used its B1G tourney championship to move way up last year to a #4 seed. And again that is where Stanford and Louisville have the least stumbling blocks, as any losses to UConn other than huge blowouts are respectable.

One other possibility for the candidates still has to be WVU if it can pull out a win at Baylor and win at least one of the B12 titles. They did not look great last night and could have easily have lost if the final "she got all ball" block on the OK player had been seen differently, but at 21-3, 10-2 and a home game against OK State and the away game against Baylor, they have an outside shot at a #1 if they run the table.

 

[Vowelguy]

Right now, I think I'd rank the teams: 3 Stan, 4 SC, 5 Bay, 6 Lou, 7 Tenn, 8 Duke. But many key games remain.

 

[connboy77]

Right now, I think I'd rank the teams: 3 Stan, 4 SC, 5 Bay, 6 Lou, 7 Tenn, 8 Duke. But many key games remain.

I agree on the first three, but South Carolina has not proven itself yet. Who have they beaten? Right now I would put either Baylor or Louisville #4. They both played UCONN very tough.

 

[Vowelguy]

Who have they beaten?

Could say the same about Louisville.

Many notable games to go, which hopefully will clarify.

 

[stwainfan]

I think it's between Stanford and the SEC champion.

 

[UCONNfan1]

Stanford's a lock unless they lose another game. I'd say the 4th spot would be between L'ville, Baylor, and the SEC champ. Either way I don't see a team from the SEC making the final 4. The conference is competitive, but not terribly strong at the top...

 

[ASweet3781]

If the SEC champion gets a 1 seed finishing with 4-5 losses than the committee must think it's 1995.

The only time I've seen S Carolina on TV they struggled to win at Vanderbilt on the road.

Women's Basketball is not a sport where you can use numbers like wins vs top 25. There is so much mediocrity in the sport. Including in the top 25. Syracuse just lost at home by 20+ to un ranked Florida State. Beating Syracuse is a "good" win? And Duke as the #3 team lost at home to #1 and #2 by a combined 45 points does not have a bad loss? Whatever.

 

[UcMiami]

Sorry but I think 'bad loss' when talking about a team in contention for a #1 seed is a loss to any team outside the top ten. That doesn't disqualify them as they all fall into that category, but if you are supposed to be one of the top 4 teams in the country then losing to teams ranked 11-50 is not good and denotes a bad game in the same way as losing to a team ranked 75. We can quibble about whether to identify the cut off as top 10 or top 12 or top 15, but using realtime RPI as an example - I would consider a loss to Cal (#18) or Tx (#16) or St John's (#14) as a bad loss. I would say the same thing if you were using a ranking other than RPI which I really don't trust (e.g. Baylor ranked at #15) like Sagarin where #15 PSU and #16 TX would in my mind be bad losses.

 

[Phil]

The top four team in 2013 were:

Team Worst loss
Baylor #4 Stanford
Stanford #6 Cal
Notre Dame #1 Baylor
Connecticut #2 Notre Dame

So the worst loss of the worst losses was to a top 10 team.

 

[Vowelguy]

Given that I already listed record vs RPI 50, "bad loss" was merely a shorthand way of saying "other losses" or "very very very bad losses." Sheesh.

 

[UcMiami]

Given that I already listed record vs RPI 50, "bad loss" was merely a shorthand way of saying "other losses" or "very very very bad losses." Sheesh.

Yes - I agree, but I saying that the record against top 25 was too broad a value to provide meaningful information for this 'class' of team.
To equate a loss (or win) against Uconn or ND or Baylor to a loss to Texas or Syracuse doesn't tell you anything about there relative weakness (or strength.)
Record against top 10 AP poll
Stanford - 1-1 Bad loss - Wash (Wins against other top 25 - 5, next 25 - 3)
Louisville - 0-1 Bad loss - UK (25 - 1, 50 - 3)
Duke - 0-2 Bad loss - UNC (25 - 5, 50 - 4)
South C - 0-0 Bad losses - UNC, TxA&M (25 - 3, 50 - 0)
Baylor - 0-1 Bad losses - UK, Kansas (25 - 4, 50 - 1)
Tenn - 0-2, Bad losses - LSU, Vandy (25 - 3, 50 - 5)

Uconn - 5-0 Bad Loss NA (25 - 2, 50 - 2)
Notre Dame - 3-0 Bad Loss NA (25-2, 50-4)

I think that gives a better picture of the relative resumes with Uconn and ND added in. What stands out to me is there are three teams with only one bad loss. Stanford is the only team besides ND and Uconn with a good win. And as of yet, South Carolina has not challenged itself at all against a top ten team. That is about to change but to be in the middle of Feb with zero games against a top ten team is pretty amazing. Louisville only last week left that state and Baylor waited until mid January to test themselves.
As for conference strength at the top:
ACC - 4
AAC - 2
SEC - 2
Big12 - 1
Pac - 1
Big10 - 0
BE - 0
Also note - ND and Uconn not only distance themselves with no bad losses and multiple wins against top 10 teams, but they are the only ones to have played more than 2 games against those top ten teams. In the regular season ND will end up with 6 against the current poll, as will Uconn. The others:
Louisville - 2
Stanford - 2
Duke - 5
South C - 1
Baylor - 1
Tenn - 3

 

[easttexastrash]

The committee also looks at the Janet Jackson factor: what have you done for me lately? Who finished the year on an upward trend? One more loss by Stanford or Duke puts them as a 2 if USC and Baylor win out.

I think that Baylor will be sent to Lincoln whether they are a 1 or 2 seed as Baylor fans will travel well due to the ability to drive and put butts in the seats. If that is the case then I am not concerned if their seed is 1 or 2 as the difference in playing a 3 or 4 seed is marginal.

 

[pap49cba]

With 3 beat downs on their home court there is no way Duke should be a #1. As far as I am concerned they're not even in the conversation.

 

[Vowelguy]

Yes - I agree, but I saying that the record against top 25 was too broad a value to provide meaningful information for this 'class' of team.
To equate a loss (or win) against Uconn or ND or Baylor to a loss to Texas or Syracuse doesn't tell you anything about there relative weakness (or strength.)
Record against top 10 AP poll
Stanford - 1-1 Bad loss - Wash (Wins against other top 25 - 5, next 25 - 3)
Louisville - 0-1 Bad loss - UK (25 - 1, 50 - 3)
Duke - 0-2 Bad loss - UNC (25 - 5, 50 - 4)
South C - 0-0 Bad losses - UNC, TxA&M (25 - 3, 50 - 0)
Baylor - 0-1 Bad losses - UK, Kansas (25 - 4, 50 - 1)
Tenn - 0-2, Bad losses - LSU, Vandy (25 - 3, 50 - 5)

So what does this tell us? Are there enough data points? (Can you distinguish between 0-1 and 0-2?)

 

[easttexastrash]

With 3 beat downs on their home court there is no way Duke should be a #1. As far as I am concerned they're not even in the conversation.

Agreed. And I think there are more losses to come.

 

[UcMiami]

So what does this tell us? Are there enough data points? (Can you distinguish between 0-1 and 0-2?)

I think by the end of the year you can. And specifically who the losses are to as in head to head and whether they are pre-January or recent. Stanford stands out at the moment as the only team with a truly quality win of the other possible #1 seeds - The Baylor, Duke and Louisville losses were to ND/Uconn. And the bad loss column also has more meaning. By the end of the year UNC might be considered a 'good loss' if they move into the top ten, and NC State may become a less significant win or loss if they fall.
In putting this together South Carolina really came into focus for me as well - are they a real contender? They have played a total of 5 games against top 50 teams and none against the top 10. They have an important stretch of games - by far the hardest section of their schedule in the space of two weeks. I could see them going 2-3 as easily as them going 4-1. If they go 5-0 then it will stand out as that would contain a quality win and 2 more top 25s.
Louisville is likely to have one more quality loss, but their resume is pretty bare as they are likely to pick up only one more top 50 win.

 

[UcMiami]

With 3 beat downs on their home court there is no way Duke should be a #1. As far as I am concerned they're not even in the conversation.

But that is what Uconn and ND are doing this year. The UNC loss was bad, but was it worse than losing to Kansas or Vandy or UK anywhere? Home court is generally only a 3 or 4 point advantage and when a game goes south for a team it can get ugly, so ...

 

[pap49cba]

But that is what Uconn and ND are doing this year. The UNC loss was bad, but was it worse than losing to Kansas or Vandy or UK anywhere? Home court is generally only a 3 or 4 point advantage and when a game goes south for a team it can get ugly, so ...

Well, FWIW, Debbie Antonelli doesn't agree with you...

Debbie Antonelli ‏@debbieantonelli Feb 10
"@bobjoyce27: @debbieantonelli 3x they been blasted at home...No way are they a #1 seed" didn't think they were #1 seed before the unc gm

 

[UcMiami]

Well, FWIW, Debbie Antonelli doesn't agree with you...

Debbie Antonelli ‏@debbieantonelli Feb 10
"@bobjoyce27: @debbieantonelli 3x they been blasted at home...No way are they a #1 seed" didn't think they were #1 seed before the unc gm

Well, I just wonder how well these other teams would have done had they played the same two teams. TN did play ND at home and lost by 16 in a game that probably wasn't that close - do you think Uconn could have put a smack down on TN as well? Heck they lost to LSU at home as well. Baylor - OK they played Uconn tough, you think they beat ND at home? SC lost to UNC on a neutral court - think ND or Uconn would have a hard time at SC?
I am not advocating Duke as a #1 seed, but ... I don't see anyone except Stanford of the rest of the pack that has proven capable of beating a top ten team yet. And I agree the UNC defeat was not pretty and has hurt them. I just don't read much into losing by any score to Uconn or ND this year at any venue.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Nice synopsis by the OP. I think if any of these teams win out, they will be a number one seed. Obviously, UCONN and ND are the best teams, and I'm a South Carolina fan. I don't think we'll have a clear picture of the last 2 number 1 seeds until after the regular season is over and maybe not until after the conference tournaments.

 

[easttexastrash]

Okie Lite was ranked 8th when Baylor played them and they may very well be back in the top 10 soon. WVU may also break into the top 10 and Baylor beat them. Baylor had a major letdown after playing UCONN so well and that will hurt them. The team was flat after such a big game and paid the price.

If S Carolina wins the SEC they will get the 4th number 1 seed.

 

[UcMiami]

Okie Lite was ranked 8th when Baylor played them and they may very well be back in the top 10 soon. WVU may also break into the top 10 and Baylor beat them. Baylor had a major letdown after playing UCONN so well and that will hurt them. The team was flat after such a big game and paid the price.

If S Carolina wins the SEC they will get the 4th number 1 seed.

If SC wins the SEC without losing one or two more games I agree but they could do both, or they could win the regular season and still lose earlier than the final in the SEC tournament.
If Baylor wins out they could be the 4th #1 seed - and I actually give them a slightly better chance of doing that than SC winning out in the SEC.
Stanford probably wins out and that gives them a #1 seed.
Duke loses two more times to ND if they can actually make it to the final of the ACC tournament. And they could easily lose a third game. Not very strong finish and I think they get a #2.
Louisville probably loses twice more to Uconn - so they have three losses late to Uconn and an early loss to KY not bad, but no really impressive wins either. They get the 4th if both Baylor and SC stumble unless TN wins out in which case just maybe they squeak in.
It doesn't actually matter to either Stanford or Louisville if they get a #1 or a #2 as they play at home in either case. The biggest difference with Stanford is if they are a 2 seed, they end up with a stronger team in their bracket since they will get the 4th best 1 seed vs. the 4th best 2 seed. Louisville will end up with one of the best 2 seeds or the 1st or 3rd or 4th one seed.

 

[Vowelguy]

Stanford crushed Ariz St last night. Barring any more WTF losses, they are a #1.