KO's Performance Against Seed Expectation (PASE)

[tzznandrew]

KO has gone into the tournament with two rough seeds: 7 and 9.

The 7 seed has an expected win total of 0.87. He won 6 games. That's +5.13.
The 9 seed has an expected win total of 0.58. So far he's won 1 game. That's +0.42.

So far KO is +5.55, or exceeding his seed by 2.78 games per tournament. Small sample size, to be sure, but very impressive.

That's even if he lost tomorrow. Which he will, because Kansas is awesome and we are doomed.

 

[alexd]

KO has gone into the tournament with two rough seeds: 7 and 9.

The 7 seed has an expected win total of 0.87. He won 6 games. That's +5.13.
The 9 seed has an expected win total of 0.58. So far he's won 1 game. That's +0.42.

So far KO is +5.55, or exceeding his seed by 2.78 games per tournament. Small sample size, to be sure, but very impressive.

That's even if he lost tomorrow. Which he will, because Kansas is awesome and we are doomed.

 

[alexd]

I'm not sure we should even bother showing up tomorrow.

 

[gtcam]

Do they have a stat for everything? or is it that you are so bored and/or anal that you make things up like PASE??
Not complaining - just wondering because here in Middle CT we got other things to do!!!

 

[tzznandrew]

Do they have a stat for everything? or is it that you are so bored and/or anal that you make things up like PASE??
Not complaining - just wondering because here in Middle CT we got other things to do!!!

Lol. I live in Boston: I have stuff to do all the time. During March, I watch basketball.

This is a stat that's been around a while. Nothing special.

 

[JCSuperstar]

Nice stat, thanks for the post.

 

[Leebo]

Do they have a stat for everything? or is it that you are so bored and/or anal that you make things up like PASE??
Not complaining - just wondering because here in Middle CT we got other things to do!!!

#spreadsheetshaming

 

[tcf15]

I like when people go on message boards to tell all the posters they got other stuff to do.

 

[Matrim55]

Lol. I live in Boston: I have stuff to do all the time. During March, I watch basketball.

This is a stat that's been around a while. Nothing special.

Do you have any updated numbers? I found this from 2010 to give some historical context:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/blog/?p=225

But I'd love to see something more recent.

 

[tzznandrew]

Do you have any updated numbers? I found this from 2010 to give some historical context:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/blog/?p=225

But I'd love to see something more recent.

I cribbed mine from a poster from Phog.net who said it was updated up through last year.

 

[Matrim55]

I cribbed mine from a poster from Phog.net who said it was updated up through last year.

Shoot me a link, please.

 

[tzznandrew]

Shoot me a link, please.

http://www.scout.com/college/kansas...aa-tournament-history-playing-to-expectations

 

[Matrim55]

http://www.scout.com/college/kansas...aa-tournament-history-playing-to-expectations

Using the basic formula, Calhoun finished his career at +7.56, while K post-2010 mark actually knocks him down to +6.96.

I'm not going to bother calculating Calipari's #s. I'll just say that for my own personal narrative, I rather enjoy this stat.

 

[intlzncster]

KO has gone into the tournament with two rough seeds: 7 and 9.

The 7 seed has an expected win total of 0.87. He won 6 games. That's +5.13.
The 9 seed has an expected win total of 0.58. So far he's won 1 game. That's +0.42.

So far KO is +5.55, or exceeding his seed by 2.78 games per tournament. Small sample size, to be sure, but very impressive.

That's even if he lost tomorrow. Which he will, because Kansas is awesome and we are doomed.

but he can't coach.

 

[RichZ]

here in Middle CT

I see what you did there.

 

[Stinger92860]

W should go home now. I hope we keep it under 40, we are dooooomed. We have no chance against a superior team from Kansas. We will rue the day we were asked to join the B12.