Ken Pom stat

[QDOG5]

2 things: are those numbers entering the tournament or before? Also, every time I see things like this come up it’s generally “all teams are this or are named UConn.” I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those data points was a previous UConn title winner.

Entering the tourney.

 

[QDOG5]

Is it not suspicious that we had a SoS of 44 last year and the cutoff in the video is now 45?

Eventually the exceptions will move the goalposts so far that the data will have no meaning.

It does look suspicious. I don't want to do the research.

 

[QDOG5]

Just because no team has won a championship with an SOS above 45 since Ken Pom started doing this DOES NOT mean that we have to get our SOS from 46 to 44 to have a chance of winning. Ken Pom himself would tell you that’s a distinction without a difference. It’s not like the NCAA will forbid us from winning based on that one metric.

I have no argument with your post. I agree that it's true until it isn't true, but I would rather be on the good side of those stats. If we just play some better non conference opponents we won't have to worry about SOS again.

 

[QDOG5]

Here is the video

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Indiana barely being a top 100 team kinda screwed us but there’s no need to play quite literally the 5 worst teams in the country. If we just played the other D1 CT teams we’d still have crushed them but have a way better SOS

 

[storrsroars]

Can't prove it as I don't have the data for 2014, but post-tourney, UConn's AdjO was 39 and Kentucky's AdjD was 32. Both numbers were likely higher pre-tourney and either/both may have been the outliers currently considered as bare minimum to win the title by this guy.

 

[Spaceman213J]

It's not like UConn has only played cupcakes out of conference. If you went by preseason expectations, I think most people will tell you that Texas, Gonzaga, Kansas and Indiana have underperformed. You can't play the games for other teams.

 

[JohnnyJr]

It's not like UConn has only played cupcakes out of conference. If you went by preseason expectations, I think most people will tell you that Texas, Gonzaga, Kansas and Indiana have underperformed. You can't play the games for other teams.

We gotta beat the cupcakes by higher margins when we play them tho. Our loss at Kansas is rated better on Torvik than our wins against MVSU and APB. Those games used to be a good time to build your bench but now if you do that it hurts your metrics. I don’t agree with it but it is what it is

 

[Spaceman213J]

We gotta beat the cupcakes by higher margins when we play them tho. Our loss at Kansas is rated better on Torvik than our wins against MVSU and APB. Those games used to be a good time to build your bench but now if you do that it hurts your metrics. I don’t agree with it but it is what it is

I also think Hurley didn't want a bad loss. He didn't know exactly what he was getting with Spencer. He was hoping Karaban, Clingan and the other returnees were going to take the next step, which fortunately they have, but you never know. Having a highly rated freshman class is nice, but you really don't know for sure what you got until you put them on the floor and how much you are going to need to lean on them.
Spencer's play, Karaban & Clingan stepping up and Newton playing very well are great, but to have those 4 all step up was even better than I think most expected.

 

[ctchamps]

I also think Hurley didn't want a bad loss. He didn't know exactly what he was getting with Spencer. He was hoping Karaban, Clingan and the other returnees were going to take the next step, which fortunately they have, but you never know. Having a highly rated freshman class is nice, but you really don't know for sure what you got until you put them on the floor and how much you are going to need to lean on them.
Spencer's play, Karaban & Clingan stepping up and Newton playing very well are great, but to have those 4 all step up was even better than I think most expected.

I have the same sentiment.

It’s great to know which statistics are important and the scheduling that is required to get the numbers for a favorable tournament seeding. But it’s foolish to look at those statistics in a vacuum.

Having a veteran team and/or team with most of the players returning from a successful year is the perfect time to factor in a better SOS. This was not the situation for UConn.

There was a lot of player uncertainty coming into this season. If you consider this is really Samson’s first year of playing the staff needed to develop seven players with little or no time playing college basketball, one veteran player with no experience playing for UConn, and one player who went from a bench player to the starting lineup.

I can’t imagine Hurley had no input in the scheduling. I can’t imagine he didn’t consider the implications this scheduling would have on the SOS. My guess is he needed as many “practice” games as possible to allow so many unknown parts to coalesce. The fact that it coalesced as quickly as it did, as you pointed out, could not have been predicted.

I’m scratching my head trying to understand why there is so much criticism regarding the scheduling when the choices made by the staff have been successful two years running. It certainly can hurt in some unknown future but it’s just as likely that a better schedule can result in problems.

 

[Samoo]

I’ve seen stats about Kenpom offense and defense numbers for title teams but I don’t get how the strength of schedule matters for a potential title team.

Exactly. It is about as important as saying that no team has won with three left-handed starters. Who you play at the bottom of your schedule says nothing about how good you are if you are winning all your games. How you performed in those games says more.