Kelly vs the rest: The last game stats

[DobbsRover2]

It is often said that the NCAA tournament gives the top players a chance to showcase their talents in the national spotlight and help leave strong impressions that strongly augment the picture of a player's strengths and weaknesses that has been formed from scouting the regular season games. A player's last game during their senior season can be especially memorable and informative since it usually comes in a pressure-packed game.​

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Eleven of the top 12 players chosen in the WNBA draft played in the NCAA tournanment (Tayler Hill of OSU played her last game in the B10 tourney), and obviously only one player among the 12 went out a winner in her last game, Kelly Faris. Three of the players also got some of Kelly's loving (or overloving) personal attention in their last game. Table of results are shown below:​

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Player FG 3-pt FT OREB REB ASST STL BLK TO PF PTS​

1. Griner - Baylor 4-10 0-0 6-8 5 10 1 3 2 3 3 14​

2. Della Donne - Del 11-23 0-4 11-11 1 9 2 0 0 5 1 33​

3. Diggins - ND 3-15 0-3 4-4 0 3 8 4 3 6 2 10​

4. Hill - OSU 7-21 5-9 4-6 1 1 3 1 0 3 2 23​

5. Bone - TA&M 6-10 1-1 0-0 2 5 2 0 3 3 4 13​

6. Hawkins - MD 5-15 0-2 1-1 1 8 0 0 4 5 3 11​

7. Young - OKSU 6-14 0-1 0-0 1 8 0 3 1 2 2 12​

8. Alexander - Syr 7-17 0-0 9-9 2 8 0 1 0 2 2 23​

9. Clarendon - Cal 8-18 1-3 0-1 3 5 1 1 1 3 2 17​

10. Mathies - KY 4-9 2-3 4-6 2 4 1 3 1 4 4 14​

11. Faris -UConn 6-11 4-7 0-0 1 9 6 2 1 3 2 16​

12. Moore - Neb 5-18 1-8 0-0 2 5 6 1 0 4 2 11​

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Kelly went out with a dazzler. Only she and Della Donne had overall really strong games, and even EDD had that 2-5 ASST\TO ratio. Alexander also did pretty well with just points and rebs, and Griner got her rebs and Diggins got her assists but also had 6 turnovers.​

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If you were making the WNBA selections based on final-game stats (though clearly no one does) without even considering lockdown defender reputations, Kelly's numbers would stand out as likely the second best after EDD. She had the best 3-pt% of anyone who had more than a solo Kelsey Bone heave, best ASST\TO ratio, best points per shot ratio, most defensive rebounds along with EDD, and was the only one who both scored more than 15 points and shot better than 50%. She was second in rebounds and assists, and the only place she zeroed out in is the FTs, which indeed will never be a stat she chalks up big numbers in.​

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If first impressions often involve a lot of off-base prejudices, I'm thinking Kelly's final college impression is the real deal.​

 

[UcMiami]

Interesting post - of course she also played on the best team so that always helps - when you make a nice pass it helps if the recipient can hit the broad side of a barn door!
While of course these are really meaningless - I would be curious to see the FG%, 3Pt%, FT%, Avg Reb, Avg Asst, Asst/TO, and Avg Pts numbers the year for the same universe. My sense is that Kelly would be near the top in everything except the last column, and that playing one of the top SOS of all the players.

Speaks to 'volume scorer' vs. 'percentage scorer'.

 

[MilfordHusky]

This is an unusual combination, unless you're Kelly Faris, Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis, or Maya Moore:

4-7 shooting threes

9 rebounds

6 assists

 

[UcMiami]

Decided to do the research myself on this - (too much time to waste!)

Full year stats:​

Player FG% 3-pt% FT% REB avg ASST/TO PTS avg​

1. Griner - Baylor 60.7% NA 71.2 9.4 1.27 23.8​

2. Della Donne - Del 48.7 45.2 92.1 8.5 1.70 26.0​

3. Diggins - ND 42.3 36.2 81.4 3.5 1.67 17.1​

4. Hill - OSU 40.5 31.7 82.4 4.3 1.04 21.1​

5. Bone - TA&M 56.6 NA 64.1 9.3 0.79 16.6​

6. Hawkins - MD 54.3 NA 79.1 9.7 0.44 18.0​

7. Young - OKSU 51.4 NA 59.5 10.1 0.5 16.0​

8. Alexander - Syr 51.8 NA 72.6 8.7 0.18 17.9​

9. Clarendon - Cal 45.2 32.5 66.5 4.0 1.49 16.4​

10. Mathies - KY 42.5 42.2 75.4 4.5 1.21 16.1​

11. Faris -UConn 53.0 41.5 75.0 5.7 2.11 10.2​

12. Moore - Neb 46.8 38.2 80.7 3.6 2.14 15.1​

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As I suspected Kelly had the lowest pts/game of any 1st rd draft choice But ...​

# 4 in field goal percentage (and #1 for wing/guard)​

#3 in 3 pt percentage for those that shot the three more than once/game​

#5 in FT percentage​

#6 in rebounding and #2 behind EDD for non-posts​

#2 in assist/turnover .03 behind Moore.​

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The real comparison is to the non post players and excluding EDD who is somewhat hybrid:​

3. Diggins - ND 42.3 36.2 81.4 3.5 1.67 17.1​

4. Hill - OSU 40.5 31.7 82.4 4.3 1.04 21.1​

9. Clarendon 45.2 32.5 66.5 4.0 1.49 16.4​

10. Mathies 42.5 42.2 75.4 4.5 1.21 16.1​

11. Faris - 53.0 41.5 75.0 5.7 2.11 10.2​

12. Moore 46.8 38.2 80.7 3.6 2.14 15.1​

 

[JSB60]

I'd certainly say the tournament performance helped. You could argue that she was the fourth best player on the team and still a first round pick.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I'd certainly say the tournament performance helped. You could argue that she was the fourth best player on the team and still a first round pick.

I suppose you could argue that, but you could also argue that in a large number of games Kelly was also the best player, as her unique characteristics kind of defy any easy placement. For instance, if you know that an opponent's main chance to beat you is to have their lead scorer go for 25 points and draw your team's defensive focus so the other players also have good games, but then your lockdown defender shuts down the opponent's star and totally disrupts their game plan, then she's really the key player on the floor.

As to the season's stats comparisons for the non-posts, it is clear that unless you really need a Diggins to give you buckets because you're really offensively challenged, Faris is the most valuable of the non-posts with the stats and defensive ability combined. Mathies's shooting percentages are intriguing, and since FG% and 3-pt FG% are basically the same, she arguably should just jack'em.

And as for Alexander, OMG x 10. How can you go through a 30+ game season with only 10 assists and be a first round pick, even if you are a post player? With a 0.18 ASST/TO ratio, I would suggest that the Silver Stars fans scream imploringly "Shoot! Shoot!" instead of asking her to try to pass to any other open shooter for another TO.

 

[UcMiami]

OK - just one last pop at this - full year points/shots for percentage scoring efficiency - Second number = full year field goal points/shots (dropping out the free throws)
1. Griner - 1.47, 1.21
2. EDD - 1.40, 1.07
5. Bone - 1.35, 1.14
6. Hawkins - 1.30, 1.10
7. Young - 1.13, 1.03
8. Alexander - 1.41, 1.04

3. Diggins - 1.23, 0.94
4. Hill - 1.36, 0.95
9. Clarendon - 1.21, 0.99
10 Mathies - 1.19, 1.00
11 Faris - 1.43, 1.24
12 Moore - 1.41, 1.08

On purely number of points per shot taken Kelly ranks #2 behind Griner and #1 among wing/guards. I didn't expect it to be that clear cut. I also find the ranking of post picks follows the efficiency number very closely until Alexander who ranks #2 among the taller players.

On the second number the first and second position are reversed and KF and BG stand apart from everyone else.

Just a small explanation about the two numbers listed for each player. A pure scoring efficiency number should be based on total points scored per time that a player shoots the ball or the offensive possession ends with the player at the free throw line. Points scored and shots taken are readily available, but there is no way to determine the number of trips to the free throw line as some of those trips are 'and 1' and others are 2 shot fouls or 1 and 1 situations. Total free throw attempts/made are available, but not the trips that are part of an already counted shot attempt that was good, nor trips where only one attempt was made unsuccessfully in a 1 and 1. So... I decided to give two numbers 'points scored/shot attempts' followed by 'points scored on shot attempts/shot attempts'. Neither is quite correct and the true number is probably somewhere between the two. A third estimate could be created by dividing the free throw attempts by 2 and including that in the total attempts and using the total points scored as the other number. (But I am too lazy to go back to the stat pages again.) A player like BG gets a higher percentage of 'and 1' then a KF, but she also doesn't shoot the 3.

Again - Please note that Kelly's PPG was less than half of the most prolific scorers and only 2/3rds of the second lowest scorer

 

[UcMiami]

And as for Alexander, OMG x 10. How can you go through a 30+ game season with only 10 assists and be a first round pick, even if you are a post player? With a 0.18 ASST/TO ratio, I would suggest that the Silver Stars fans scream imploringly "Shoot! Shoot!" instead of asking her to try to pass to any other open shooter for another TO.

Love this post! To be fair, she might have had more assists if she played on a better shooting team.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

It could be argued, with a great deal of veracity given by those who actually played competitive sports, that perpetually being assigned the stopper defensive role, has a definite, measureable and negative impact on your offensive numbers.

 

[DobbsRover2]

It could be argued, with a great deal of veracity given by those who actually played competitive sports, that perpetually being assigned the stopper defensive role, has a definite, measureable and negative impact on your offensive numbers.

Prime example might be Tina Charles having the overriding responsibility to keep Jane Appel limited (0-12 shooting and 7 rebounds) in the 2010 NC. Tina's good stats that game were 11 rebounds and 6 blocks, but wrestling with Jane was always a tough tiring job even when the Cardinal star only had one good leg, and Tina's shooting stats suffered. Of course, everybody in that game had severely reduced offensive numbers except for Maya.

Likewise, working against Diggins in the semis was likely a little more taxing for Kelly than working on various Louisville guards in the finals this year.

 

[easttexastrash]

The great thing about the WNBA draft is that Faris will get to prove how much better she is than all the others in a few weeks.