Karaban never did panic

[jfreeds]

It warms my heart that everyone hates your post

I haven't watched all those minutes from all those games. But there are NBA folks who've watched a helluva lot more of it than you have. And they put AK in the mid-second round.

There are about 869 scholarship players among the P4 + BE. There are 30 NBA teams. Only 60 kids get drafted, and AK was slotted in around #45 on consensus boards. That puts him in the top 5% of all college players. And if you start including players from high mid-majors like Gonzaga, St. Louis, St. Mary's, etc. His rarefied air becomes even more rarefied.

My guess is that these NBA teams value more than simply volume shooting or physical gifts. If Hurley wants to play him 39 minutes because he's the smartest guy out there and unlikely to make a dumb decisions, I'd think that's a good enough reference for the NBA. He was on draft boards ahead of guys with more "stat sheet" prowess. But there's something to the idea of a guy who leads and can make everyone around him better. Rudy Gay didn't do that on a team with immense talent.

I imagine you're the type of person who would be in a discussion with a SF Giants fan about how flawed Hunter Pence's game was during those 2012 & 2014 WS championships.

Stats and metrics are not the same. I don't really care if you average 20 points or 12 points - that doesn't tell the story.

You also countered your own point with Rudy Gay - he was the 8th pick in the draft.

Then you say you think NBA teams value more than physical gifts? That is one of the most laughable things I've read. Then why is Darryn Peterson, who actually took nights off to rest (which I can't stand) is going to be the first pick in the draft? It's because they don't give a crap about the intangibles. Why is Mullins projected to be a mid first round after his freshman year and Karaban is a fringe draftable player after his senior year? Karaban was better in every way this season including 3pt shooting percentage on top of being the leader yet Mullins is going to make millions and Karaban is probably going to Europe or the G-League.

 

[storrsroars]

Stats and metrics are not the same. I don't really care if you average 20 points or 12 points - that doesn't tell the story.

You also countered your own point with Rudy Gay - he was the 8th pick in the draft.

Then you say you think NBA teams value more than physical gifts? That is one of the most laughable things I've read. Then why is Darryn Peterson, who actually took nights off to rest (which I can't stand) is going to be the first pick in the draft? It's because they don't give a crap about the intangibles. Why is Mullins projected to be a mid first round after his freshman year and Karaban is a fringe draftable player after his senior year? Karaban was better in every way this season including 3pt shooting percentage on top of being the leader yet Mullins is going to make millions and Karaban is probably going to Europe or the G-League.

Why are there NBA teams that almost always suck despite having multiple lottery picks? Because there are stupid GMs/FOs. I fully expect the Kings to take Peterson as the 2nd pick. Maybe he gets to be in the playoffs before he's 30.

Tell me again how many teams Rudy Gay led to a championship?

If I were interested in winning soon, I would take Yaxel over Peterson 100x of 100 despite him being older.

If you're not trying to win championships, what's the point?

As an aside, Tankathon has the Spurs taking Karaban (35), Tarris (42), and Zuby (45) in the 2nd round. Just a reminder that the Spurs are consistently ranked in top five FOs and have a recent history of developing overlooked talent (e.g. Champagnie).

 

[Inyatkin]

Stats and metrics are not the same. I don't really care if you average 20 points or 12 points - that doesn't tell the story.

You also countered your own point with Rudy Gay - he was the 8th pick in the draft.

Then you say you think NBA teams value more than physical gifts? That is one of the most laughable things I've read. Then why is Darryn Peterson, who actually took nights off to rest (which I can't stand) is going to be the first pick in the draft? It's because they don't give a crap about the intangibles. Why is Mullins projected to be a mid first round after his freshman year and Karaban is a fringe draftable player after his senior year? Karaban was better in every way this season including 3pt shooting percentage on top of being the leader yet Mullins is going to make millions and Karaban is probably going to Europe or the G-League.

It's not that you're wrong per se on analytics. Of course no one can watch everything, so we need numbers, and those numbers keep getting better.

The initial complaint is about being dismissive of the winningest player in school history, about how 100 other guys could do what he has done. Even if you think that's true (and it's not), how could anyone think that's going to go over well on a UConn message board?

So when you step in to defend that claim, it's going to get pushback. That's how fandom works. You can think it's dumb, but why else are we all here? If all we wanted was to study spreadsheets there are other avenues for that.

 

[RashadRay11]

It's not that you're wrong per se on analytics. Of course no one can watch everything, so we need numbers, and those numbers keep getting better.

The initial complaint is about being dismissive of the winningest player in school history, about how 100 other guys could do what he has done. Even if you think that's true (and it's not), how could anyone think that's going to go over well on a UConn message board?

So when you step in to defend that claim, it's going to get pushback. That's how fandom works. You can think it's dumb, but why else are we all here? If all we wanted was to study spreadsheets there are other avenues for that.

100%.

 

[jfreeds]

It's not that you're wrong per se on analytics. Of course no one can watch everything, so we need numbers, and those numbers keep getting better.

The initial complaint is about being dismissive of the winningest player in school history, about how 100 other guys could do what he has done. Even if you think that's true (and it's not), how could anyone think that's going to go over well on a UConn message board?

So when you step in to defend that claim, it's going to get pushback. That's how fandom works. You can think it's dumb, but why else are we all here? If all we wanted was to study spreadsheets there are other avenues for that.

Fine - that's fair but I don't think I said it was dumb to think Karaban was a great player, I also think he is a great player. I was trying to say it is also not dumb to suggest that Karaban is not as good as the average UConn fan thinks he is or that 100 players could fill his shoes. 100 players that can fill his shoes doesn't even mean bad, that's still very good.

I just don't think he is an all-time player and his stacked trophy case is more of a product of a good player surrounded by greatness, not the other way around. In the last 4 years I think he is probably our 8th best player. Don't think of as hating Karaban think of it as giving higher praise to the other guys : )

 

[jfreeds]

Why are there NBA teams that almost always suck despite having multiple lottery picks? Because there are stupid GMs/FOs. I fully expect the Kings to take Peterson as the 2nd pick. Maybe he gets to be in the playoffs before he's 30.

Tell me again how many teams Rudy Gay led to a championship?

If I were interested in winning soon, I would take Yaxel over Peterson 100x of 100 despite him being older.

If you're not trying to win championships, what's the point?

As an aside, Tankathon has the Spurs taking Karaban (35), Tarris (42), and Zuby (45) in the 2nd round. Just a reminder that the Spurs are consistently ranked in top five FOs and have a recent history of developing overlooked talent (e.g. Champagnie).

I bookmarked this.

 

[RashadRay11]

Fine - that's fair but I don't think I said it was dumb to think Karaban was a great player, I also think he is a great player. I was trying to say it is also not dumb to suggest that Karaban is not as good as the average UConn fan thinks he is or that 100 players could fill his shoes. 100 players that can fill his shoes doesn't even mean bad, that's still very good.

I just don't think he is an all-time player and his stacked trophy case is more of a product of a good player surrounded by greatness, not the other way around. In the last 4 years I think he is probably our 8th best player. Don't think of as hating Karaban think of it as giving higher praise to the other guys : )

Just keep digging.

 

[cullaville]

Metrics and Statistics do not tell the whole story at all, at least not the ones most people here use. There are so many things (screens, movement, gravity, etc.) that are not encapsulated in statistics that most people see, and honestly most of it is poorly tracked even in the metrics that are available.

Let's look at that final play. Demary steals it (in the box) but nowhere does it mention Mullins recovering the ball, or helping force the steal by shutting down another passing lane. Mullins doesn't get any credit on that play until his three point shot goes in (in the boxscore, in a way that is quantifiable to him).

Similar to hockey assists in basketball, or a double hockey assist (point being the doubling was caused by one play but the ball swung enough so he does not come close to sniffing anything in the boxscore, or any statistic. Most metrics we get don't cover that. Boozer had at least a handful of those in the game though because he was able to effectively have the defense collapse on him, kick the ball out and have someone swing it to an open man. No metric really captures that it's all due to Boozer having enough gravity to attract two defenders.

Or, to use Boozer again, when he blocks Tarris twice in the post, who gets the credit there defensively on most metrics? Boozer, but who was the defender that was banging in the post and delaying the shot just enough for Boozer to come over from the weak side for the blind block? Most metics aren't giving the initial defender any credit there at all.

Bringing it back to Karaban, do you think you have an accurate measurement for all the pressure he puts on a defense by being a movement shooter and not just a stand still recipient of a swing pass? Is there a metric that gauges all the wear and tear that causes on a defenders legs throughout the game? A player like Boozer shoots 40% from three, but we all know from watching the game that his three point shot is vastly different from Karabans in terms of the gravity and effort a defender has to put into defending it.

Metrics equals paralysis by analysis

 

[Inyatkin]

Fine - that's fair but I don't think I said it was dumb to think Karaban was a great player, I also think he is a great player. I was trying to say it is also not dumb to suggest that Karaban is not as good as the average UConn fan thinks he is or that 100 players could fill his shoes. 100 players that can fill his shoes doesn't even mean bad, that's still very good.

I just don't think he is an all-time player and his stacked trophy case is more of a product of a good player surrounded by greatness, not the other way around. In the last 4 years I think he is probably our 8th best player. Don't think of as hating Karaban think of it as giving higher praise to the other guys : )

Like RuffRuff, weird behavior for a UConn board. There are plenty of generic sports sites where people might agree with you, but I don’t get the point of being some kind of truth teller on the non greatness of Alex Karaban on here

 

[storrsroars]

I bookmarked this.

Fine by me. My ego can take being wrong. I'm on my third marriage 🤪

 

[caw]

I appreciate the post but I really think there is a failure in understanding how in depth metrics have become. When you say "Mullins doesn't get any credit on that play..." that is simply not true. Most advanced metrics absolutely award credit to Mullins. Taking it further, the metrics will adjust how much credit to give him based on the 4 specific players he is playing with (so he will get more credit when Reibe is on the court vs Reed because Reibe is a worse defender), the opposing team and players that are on the court, home/away/neutral location - it will even account for the time of game and the score of the game. So, help defense is not weighted the same if you are up by 30 or if are up by 10 and it is not weighted the same if you are playing Duke vs Butler.

Simply put, every players ratings are adjusted on every single possession and that adjustment has probably a dozen or more variables that determine that adjustment.

When you analyzed that play, did you factor in the opponent, all 10 players individually on the court, the time, the score, the location? I know I sure as hell didn't - it is impossible! That is why the metrics tell a far better picture.

Yes, I fully understand what you are saying, but you are missing the point. Mullins would get the same credit on that play as Smith who was a bit out of the play by then. It does not capture the nuance and difference between how the two were involved in that specific play.

It just gives you a broad strokes picture of how Mullins defense is with that unit. Watch the game - it wasn't hard to see where every single player was and how they played into the play. Any decent analyst looks at the data and looks at the actual event.

 

[JungleLobo]

Fine - that's fair but I don't think I said it was dumb to think Karaban was a great player, I also think he is a great player. I was trying to say it is also not dumb to suggest that Karaban is not as good as the average UConn fan thinks he is or that 100 players could fill his shoes. 100 players that can fill his shoes doesn't even mean bad, that's still very good.

I just don't think he is an all-time player and his stacked trophy case is more of a product of a good player surrounded by greatness, not the other way around. In the last 4 years I think he is probably our 8th best player. Don't think of as hating Karaban think of it as giving higher praise to the other guys : )

Not sure why he always has the most minutes on the floor then

 

[Jaydumo20]

You are just talking about metrics and statistics which rarely tells the whole story, especially when it comes to the kind of intangibles Karaban has brought his 4 years here, even as a freshman.

Yes. Numbers can't explain everything. Snake-charmers are born, not made.

 

[Deepster]

Copied from a tweet.

Alex Karaban’s 17 NCAA Tournament wins gives him as many as Providence has all time.

He has more than:

16 - Seton Hall, Miami (FL), Texas A+M
15 - Arizona State, Oregon State
14 - Clemson, Minnesota, VCU
11 - UMass, Vanderbilt

 

[Jaydumo20]

G on intangibles

 

[Enrique]

Let us all hope that Barkley picks Illinois for Saturday's game.