I am bad at stats, so someone else will have to do the calculation, but here are the relevant data:is there really a 2024 prospect named devin booker? what are the odds of that?
Using the average life expectancy of a US male of 78 years you'd expect 432 Devin's to be born per year and 395 Booker's to be born per year. The chance of someone being named Devin Booker in a given year is about 1 per 10 million (.00000096%)I am bad at stats, so someone else will have to do the calculation, but here are the relevant data:
People in US with first name Devin: 33,715
People in US with last name Booker: 30,799
US population: 328.2 million
Number of high school basketball players: 540,000
I am not able to check your math, nor do I doubt it. My only comment would be to add that this is essentially the Birthday Paradox (which is not actually a paradox). The BP simply points out that, in a room containing 23 people, there is an approximately 50% that two of the people share a birthday. Most people's gut feeling is that you would need about 183 people in the room to achieve those odds, thus the "paradox."Using the average life expectancy of a US male of 78 years you'd expect 432 Devin's to be born per year and 395 Booker's to be born per year. The chance of someone being named Devin Booker in a given year is about 1 per 10 million (.00000096%)
You can also assume there are 4.2M people within each age range, so in a given year about 17M HS age kids so about 3% of HS kids are playing basketball. So the chances of a HS basketball player being named Devin Booker in a given year is about 1 in 3.3 billion.
So the chances of there being 2 Devin Bookers being HS basketball players in 11 years is about 1 in 12 sextillion
Sounds good, but let's see the calculations..........Using the average life expectancy of a US male of 78 years you'd expect 432 Devin's to be born per year and 395 Booker's to be born per year. The chance of someone being named Devin Booker in a given year is about 1 per 10 million (.00000096%)
You can also assume there are 4.2M people within each age range, so in a given year about 17M HS age kids so about 3% of HS kids are playing basketball. So the chances of a HS basketball player being named Devin Booker in a given year is about 1 in 3.3 billion.
So the chances of there being 2 Devin Bookers being HS basketball players in 11 years is about 1 in 12 sextillion
I'd just like to point out that Devin is a name that has increased in popularity in the US since roughly the 1980s, so you would expect more Devins among those of a younger age than you would among 50+ year olds.Using the average life expectancy of a US male of 78 years you'd expect 432 Devin's to be born per year and 395 Booker's to be born per year. The chance of someone being named Devin Booker in a given year is about 1 per 10 million (.00000096%)
You can also assume there are 4.2M people within each age range, so in a given year about 17M HS age kids so about 3% of HS kids are playing basketball. So the chances of a HS basketball player being named Devin Booker in a given year is about 1 in 3.3 billion.
So the chances of there being 2 Devin Bookers being HS basketball players in 11 years is about 1 in 12 sextillion
Yeah I thought about that and also there being less people born now compared to the older age groups. But only so far I wanted to go with the mathI'd just like to point out that Devin is a name that has increased in popularity in the US since roughly the 1980s, so you would expect more Devins among those of a younger age than you would among 50+ year olds.
That is an interesting paradox. Thanks for sharing.I am not able to check your math, nor do I doubt it. My only comment would be to add that this is essentially the Birthday Paradox (which is not actually a paradox). The BP simply points out that, in a room containing 23 people, there is an approximately 50% that two of the people share a birthday. Most people's gut feeling is that you would need about 183 people in the room to achieve those odds, thus the "paradox."
All this is to say that, while it may seem astonishing that a specific NBA player with a not super common name shares his name with a current high school prospect 10 years his junior, the statistical probability that, at any given time, some NBA player with a rare name shares it with some high school baller is actually quite high. Add onto that the fact that basketball players have demographic and cultural factors that make shared names even more likely, and you find that this scenario is actually downright probable.
Edit: informational link replaced with a better one
Wow. I knew we’d been on him awhile but this quote makes me think we have a better shot than I realized. Seems like we feel good about GG and TBB, and we definitely need a point guard. But this is probably a 4/5 man class so Edwards seems like the top target outside of the aforementioned guys.Could be Hurleys first top ten recruit. This quote should be talked about more.
Don't hold your breath. Do you know UConn never gets top 10 recruits?Could be Hurleys first top ten recruit. This quote should be talked about more.
To be fair, we haven't since Calhoun. And now we have the inside track with one.Don't hold your breath. Do you know UConn never gets top 10 recruits?
2023 Recruiting: - SF Matas Buzelis
I wonder when Juwan Howard is gonna get around to watching his filmthe-boneyard.com
Agreed, but he says he’s talking to UConn the most.I read that quote as he's closest to Kimani of the coaches on our staff. It isn't clear he's talking about ANY coach.
And Calhoun didn't his first few years either. Give it some time.To be fair, we haven't since Calhoun. And now we have the inside track with one.
And Calhoun didn't his first few years either. Give it some time.
Things are always different when there are so many years between these periods. There is some better today and some worse. But nothing bad enough that precludes getting top talent.Maybe you havent noticed, things are a little different since Calhoun coached here.
Also, I feel like its either TBB or this kid. No way we would take both, right?
TBB and Butzelis seem more like 3/4's and Edwards seems more like a 2/3. I ultimately think we'll end up with TBB and fall off for Butzelis. Getting TBB shouldn't affect Edwards. I think Griffiths and Edwards overlap more, but Edwards is probably too good to stop recruiting if we get Griffiths.Things are always different when there are so many years between these periods. There is some better today and some worse. But nothing bad enough that precludes getting top talent.
Yeah don't see how they take all 3 of TBB, Edwards and Butzelis. Probably 1 spot there. Let's just hope they get 1.