Frank, first off, always appreciate your insight when you stop by here.
As far as UConn is concerned with the B1G what is our one chance to get into the conference?
Even if it's a 1 in a million shot, knowing B1G like you do, if the stars were to align what has to happen?
To be honest, it's extremely low. As I've said elsewhere, it's not as if there is anything wrong with UConn itself, but rather what the Big Ten has indicated that it's looking for points elsewhere. If being an AAU school matters (unless your school's name is Notre Dame), then UConn obviously doesn't fit at this time and the AAU itself is in contraction mode as opposed to expansion mode. Lots of schools say that they have a goal of AAU membership in an attempt to create the public perception of rising academic stock, but it's a club that has been getting more and more exclusive as opposed to opening its doors. The only 2 FBS schools that have gained AAU membership in this century (and in fact, the only 2 in the past 30 years) are Georgia Tech and Texas A&M, both of whom were clearly unambiguous engineering and science research powerhouses and probably should have been invited decades ago. (FWIW, the only FBS school that's really in striking distance of gaining AAU membership at this point is Miami based on the metrics that they used to push Nebraska out and scared off Syracuse, and that's not even a slam dunk case.) If being an AAU school doesn't ultimately matter, then the Big Ten might be looking at bigger markets and/or more powerful football brand names like Florida State, Miami and/or Oklahoma.
I think it will take time for UConn to become a truly viable Big Ten candidate... and I mean that in a literal sense. There literally has to be a lengthy passage of time for UConn to establish itself historically as an FBS program. This is something that I underestimated in UConn's prospects for the ACC, as well (as I was fairly certain that UConn was going to be ahead of Louisville in the pecking order when a spot initially opened up there). Rutgers might have a horrible football history, but it's a very *long* history (arguably the very longest one if you believe their boosters), and in a league where old money is deemed to be more important than any other conference, it counts for a lot. The BTN actually shows old Nebraska and Penn State football games from the 1970s and 1980s - meaning games prior to them even becoming Big Ten members. Tradition and history is inherently a *massive* part of the Big Ten brand and any new addition needs to integrate into that brand seamlessly. Now, I know that UConn has played football for a very long time, but in the eyes of the power conferences, its football history started when it made the full move up to FBS in 2002, so they are perceived as "new money" by the rest of the country in a way that all of you as UConn fans/alums probably don't see yourselves as.
Anyway, besides simply the passage of time, if there are long-term goals for UConn to make itself attractive to the Big Ten (or ACC) down the road, the critical items are:
(1) Improve graduate research academics to as close to AAU metrics as possible - As of now, Miami has the title of "best FBS research school that's not in the AAU". UConn has to at least be on par with Miami to force the academic issue. Otherwise, UConn gets lumped in with Florida State and Oklahoma in terms of academics (I know that's not true at all an undergrad level with UConn being ranked much higher, but it's not really that far apart at the graduate research level), and in that type of comparison, the elite football brand names will always win out. It wasn't an accident that Nebraska got chosen by the Big Ten first. Now, that's easier said than done, of course. There are lots of schools trying to do the same thing.
(2) Demonstrate that UConn is more *consistently* popular than Rutgers and Syracuse in the NYC market for *football* - Men's basketball and women's basketball are nice, but they're not going to carry much weight here. Even the Big Ten's targeting of UNC was as much about getting into top notch football recruiting territories and long-term demographics as it is about UNC's basketball brand. The state of Connecticut itself is a large disadvantage in terms of football recruiting compared to the other Big Ten options, so it needs to compensate that by becoming the top *football* brand in the NYC market. That's likely going to take a lot of winning big and it's going to take consistency (not just a one or two season run) to do that. Again, that's easier said than done.
(3) Act like a top dog in public but make moves like an underdog in private - If there's one thing that UConn should learn from the past 3 years of conference realignment, don't ever, ever, EVER assume that you're next in line for anything. West Virginia didn't do that with the Big 12 and Louisville didn't do that with the ACC. Whatever you might think of those schools, they took absolutely no chances in the conference realignment game. What are you actually doing better than Cincinnati if it comes down to you and them for 1 spot in a power conference? What are you doing better than schools like USF, UCF, Houston and SMU that are in rich football recruiting markets? In what areas are those schools actually ahead of you and how do you compensate for that? Don't assume that you're ahead of them in line in anything. Louisville *forced* the issue with how they created top notch facilities and invested SEC/Big Ten-level funds into football despite being saddled with a terrible Big East TV contract. Has UConn really forced the issue or did it just assume that its location in New England and having academics that are better then most would sell itself? Even Rutgers, who had the ultimate location advantage being directly in the NYC market, had to bet the farm in upgrading football facilities to be taken seriously. The worst attitude to have in conference realignment is, "We'll be fine." Recognize that other schools might very well be offering something more enticing (whether it's TV market, location, demographics, academics, etc.) and figure out how to either beat them on the factors that can be changed (generally on-the-field) and minimize the disadvantages on things that can't be changed (such as geography). This is a zero sum game. There are schools that are in strong football hotbeds that are continuously pouring money into athletics and will be UConn's competition when the next wave of conference realignment comes to fruition, so UConn has to be prepared for that.
Those are just the things off of the top of my head. I wish that it would be better news for UConn and that a solution comes quick for you guys (since I do think that your athletic department has done a good job over the past 15 years overall), but the Big Ten isn't going to expand just for the sake of expanding. UConn has to *force* the issue and make itself into an asset that conferences simply can't pass over.
