Bringing this conversation to a somewhat relevant place instead of the Abraham thread.
Smith is historically injury prone, and also currently injured. The risk of him missing significant time is not 0, which likely would push Furphy into some sort of bigger role.
But I agree, his most likely outcome for minutes is in the range you said.
Ross last year had 25% of minutes and 6% down the stretch. With Ball/Karaban/Stew back and Braylon likely absorbing a lot of the minutes that Liam was using, I'm not sure where Ross' minutes above those last year levels will come from. I agree that he has the potential for a different skillset than Alex/Braylon/Solo bring, though it seems that Stewart is moving more in that direction (gaining weight, looking really focused on defense in the scrimmage I saw, "putting down the controller and working" as paraphrased) and is likely ahead of him in the pecking order for that wing role based on being ahead of him last year. Furphy is more skilled, better shooting, and better on the ball than Ross, when that is required. I don't see how Ross earns any additional playing time. He has to prove he's an essential perimeter stopper in a league above Stew, but the results from last year are mixed on that. Hurley in his media talk did mention he liked some of Ross' minutes in that regard in certain games, but if Stew is improving in that area, then Ross needs to take a decent leap to even get what he had last year if Furphy takes any minutes when we need another shooter or handler out there (maybe against zones or presses or whatever).