It's all about the Terrible Threes, or is it

[ERWUC65]

I would like to ask a favor of all the statisticians and deep thinkers out there. Can you provide an analysis of games won (or lost) by threes (3's), maybe even a comparison to games let say 'won (or lost) in the paint'. This interest comes from watching UConn among several top 20 schools and thinking that like the NBA, and Men's college, the 3 point play has come to prominence in the women's game and is now where the coaches think provides the most bang for the buck. As a small sample size UConn's win over Iowa State was THREES, ND win over UConn was THREES and USC narrow victory over UConn was again... THREES. Am I on to something here? or not.

 

[Rowdy831]

If you look at the top 5 teams the three pointer is vital to their success. UConn shoots the highest percentage of threes at 39% of their shots and only trail ND in percentage made so maybe it isn't a good way to measure overall success, at least not for all teams. The lowest percentage of shots that are threes is also ND with only 27% of their shots coming from long range. If all the top teams only shot 3s they would score more points that they do now because each team scores more points on 3s per 100 made than 2s per 100 made.

Like all stats it really doesn't mean much unless you know how they did in individual match ups. UConn had a great shooting night against ISU from distance but other than that game has been pretty average. To me the three is important but if you want to get to the foul line you need twos, if you want to shoot for a much higher percentage you need twos. To beat really good teams you need both.

 

[hoophuskee]

I would like to ask a favor of all the statisticians and deep thinkers out there. Can you provide an analysis of games won (or lost) by threes (3's), maybe even a comparison to games let say 'won (or lost) in the paint'. This interest comes from watching UConn among several top 20 schools and thinking that like the NBA, and Men's college, the 3 point play has come to prominence in the women's game and is now where the coaches think provides the most bang for the buck. As a small sample size UConn's win over Iowa State was THREES, ND win over UConn was THREES and USC narrow victory over UConn was again... THREES. Am I on to something here? or not.

Not sure what you're asking. Three's are part of the game. How do you define though "won and lost?" SOCal was 9-16 vs UCONN scoring 27 points from 3. Taking sixteen 3's for a game isn't much. And the % SoCal shot was oustanding. While UCONN ws 6-23. That's a 9 pt differential too along with huge efficiency disparity. So, did they lose the game because of the 3 pt shot? Or because of their overall defense? Or because lack of post play caused them to take poor shots? Or other?

 

[HuskyNan]

 

[Next 12]

I believe you need both, 3's and dribble to the basket scores. The Uconn teams of Breanna and Maya shot 3's , but had it down pat ,the players would pass the ball at the outer perimeter and then a player would cut to the wide open basket, catch the pass for an easy lay=up, multitude times in a game. I don't see that like they used to do it. Most of the teams with losing records that live with the 3's, can't shoot the 3's. Another thought, TENN.; is winning with the 3's. They had 30 in a recent game.

 

[Next 12]

I believe you need both to win. Sometimes it's easier with the 3's, tho. I remember the games of Breanna and Maya, that they could shoot the 3's very well and had a pat play where they would pass the ball around the perimeter and a player would cut to the basket, catch the pass and score at a wide open basket. I don;t see that much anymore. To me the teams with a losing record that lives with the #'s, can't shoot the 3's. Another thought, TENN. is averaging 98.8 points a game and their 3's are 974 attempted and 457 made. They had 30 in a recent game.

 

[HopJim]

We may be missing a play other than simply shooting 3's or driving to the basket. The Lou and Collier era teams had layups based on cuts to the basket off picks down pat. Put the defense back on its heals, opening easier shots of all types. I have only seen 1-2 of these plays the entire year.

 

[Charliebball]

Three's are important in today's game but the ability to dominate inside at both ends of the court is of even greater importance...... UConn's inability to control the boards and score from the power forward and post even with the height and skill advantage is puzzling to me.....

 

[Conndog]

UConn needs a big who at minimum can gobble up rebounds. Scoring would be a plus too. I was ecstatic seeing Jana make her first shot very early in the game- she caught the pass, turned quickly and put up shot immediately— score! But that was it for the game! I think UConn needs her to develop fearlessnes, and Geno needs to let her play. She must be getting drilled on this during practice- and guards must be aware of opportunities for her when she has established position. Put another big up high if playing two bigs- Jana needs to be down low. It’s too easy to tie up UConn (just smother Paige) if there is no inside game to worry about. I’m don't think Ice can become that down low presence- this year, it has to be Jana.

 

[HopJim]

UConn needs a big who at minimum can gobble up rebounds. Scoring would be a plus too. I was ecstatic seeing Jana make her first shot very early in the game- she caught the pass, turned quickly and put up shot immediately— score! But that was it for the game! I think UConn needs her to develop fearlessnes, and Geno needs to let her play. She must be getting drilled on this during practice- and guards must be aware of opportunities for her when she has established position. Put another big up high if playing two bigs- Jana needs to be down low. It’s too easy to tie up UConn (just smother Paige) if there is no inside game to worry about. I’m don't think Ice can become that down low presence- this year, it has to be Jana.

Excellent point regarding Jana's skill set. If her primary offense is down low, keeping her at the top of the key sometimes just clogs the offense up. Whether Ice or Jana, it would be nice to have some picks or other plays to free them near the basket.
While it is what it is this year, don't count Geno out in terms of pulling a tall rabbit out of his hat for next. UConn's need for a big that can defend, score, and block shots is obvious. Tough to find but if you look back a few years you can see past options that may be used again.

 

[Bone Dog]

My hobby horse: yes, 3s, lots of ‘em, but also yes to midrange jumpers especially by Paige, Azzi and Ash. The midrange jumper can be a momentum killer for opposing teams if used well. For example, if our defense makes them struggle to get a decent look in 30 secs and then Paige or Azzi pops in an easy 2 at the other end before the defense is even set. Yes, a layup on a runout is good for this, too. But I suspect part of the appeal of the midrange jumper for Geno is that it doesn’t have to interrupt the flow of the game the way drives to the rim do if they result in free throws, and it’s easier to create. Keep the clock moving with quick easy scores and the other team can begin to feel like they’re drowning. It’s more of an opportunity bucket than a 3 since it often doesn’t require as much to get a shooter open, maybe only one screen instead of two or three. Of course, this is also why transition 3s can be so devastating to an opponent — they work hard to get anything on their end and then Sarah lopes down the court and puts up a 3 before they even have a chance to get set.

 

[boontonbomber]

Excuse my getting away from the discussion here, but talking about the 3 pointer got me thinking of the AD at Springfield College when I was there in the early 60's. Ed Steitz took over as secretary editor of the NCAA rules committee in the 70's, and is considered the most influential person in the adoption of the rule, in 1987. He , also, was instrumental in returning the "dunk" back to the game, mostly eliminating the jump ball from the game, and the adopting of the shot clock. The story goes that he spent hours having his son,Bob Steitz, taking shots from different distances in their East Longmeadow, Ma backyard. He wanted a distance that would allow for shooters to make the shot about 37%-38% of the time. That's supposedly how the original distance of 19'9" was determined.

 

[JellyBean]

The 3 Ball is a huge part of the game. Over the last 10-14 years, with the whole Dribble Dribble Drive craze, that has been the mindset "3 is better than the 2". Coaches literally have to build in 3-point shooting into their practice plans on top of the usual shooting drills. Our pure shooters, Paige, Azzi, and Allie (her shooting stroke is frigging awesome...ala Azzi) the rest of the players have to really put in the work on their shooting. Like rebounding. The players need to have that desire for rebounding. They have to want it, if they are in position, than the next player. No point in picking up silly fouls and being on the bench for foul trouble.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

I would like to ask a favor of all the statisticians and deep thinkers out there. Can you provide an analysis of games won (or lost) by threes (3's), maybe even a comparison to games let say 'won (or lost) in the paint'. This interest comes from watching UConn among several top 20 schools and thinking that like the NBA, and Men's college, the 3 point play has come to prominence in the women's game and is now where the coaches think provides the most bang for the buck. As a small sample size UConn's win over Iowa State was THREES, ND win over UConn was THREES and USC narrow victory over UConn was again... THREES. Am I on to something here? or not.

I believe that your question(s) are iterations of the same question: How does UConn win games against different types of opponents.

• (a) Is winning the rebounding battle necessary? Can UConn compensate even if it loses such battle?
• (b) How much 3-point shooting is optimal?
• (c) How much shooting efficiency, distributed among the different types of shots made available by a well-run UConn offense or by a stingy UConn halfcourt defense or by an effective press, is enough?
• (d) Does UConn’s beautiful offense that emphasizes finding the best open shot (I.e. no forced shot or foul fishing) and the energy required for such offense (which arguably depresses UConn’s free throw efficiency) at a disadvantage against teams where foul shots &3 are a major part of their offense?
• (e) being very efficient by design, UConn prefers more possessions; it drives Geno nuts if he cannot control pace and opposing controlling point guards that have atypical outstanding games give him headaches.

The answer depends on the performance particulars of the game being played.

• In a prior post, with certain examples &1, I have used Boxscore analysis to somewhat answer the basic question;
• In another post, with this year’s USF game, I have used Possessions Analysis (from play-by-play info) &2 for a more complete and succinct way to answer the basic question;
• Geno gives his teams the best postseason chances by becoming teams with the most versatile, efficient pick-your-poison offense and the most stingy defenses run by basketball players;
• Of course, some of his championship teams are less juggernauts in certain aspects than others of his championship teams; Tina and Maya’s championship teams were less proficient with the 3 and played with less pace than his other championship teams.

&1 Examples used:

• 1. UConn 63-59 South Carolina (Feb 8, 2021)
• 2. UConn 67-61 Tennessee (Jan 21, 2021)
• 3. UConn 65-83 South Carolina (Feb 11, 2024)

&2 A subsequent version of a tool I am using has more information available with the Possessions Analysis format.

&3 True shooting (compensating for foul shots) come into play. Foul shots are extremely rare for 3-point shots. Boxscores don’t capture referee-awarded foul shots from missed 2-point shot attempts.

 

[WiseWillie]

Excuse my getting away from the discussion here, but talking about the 3 pointer got me thinking of the AD at Springfield College when I was there in the early 60's. Ed Steitz took over as secretary editor of the NCAA rules committee in the 70's, and is considered the most influential person in the adoption of the rule, in 1987. He , also, was instrumental in returning the "dunk" back to the game, mostly eliminating the jump ball from the game, and the adopting of the shot clock. The story goes that he spent hours having his son,Bob Steitz, taking shots from different distances in their East Longmeadow, Ma backyard. He wanted a distance that would allow for shooters to make the shot about 37%-38% of the time. That's supposedly how the original distance of 19'9" was determined.

Thank you, boontonbomber. Maybe a bit off topic but that is the kind of history that gets lost unless brought back with stories like you just provided. Love the description of taking shots in the East Longmeadow MA backyard to get the original 19'9" perimeter distance for 3's.

 

[Cuango]

Obviously, I too want to see our three point shooting improve both by percentage and in consistency from game to game. It is not good when we shoot 12/20 one game and 4/20 the next. However, the thing that I would like to see most ( I have confidence we will start shooting better and more consistently) is our three point defense! It just seems like we give up way too many open threes!

 

[Bald Husky]

Obviously, I too want to see our three point shooting improve both by percentage and in consistency from game to game. It is not good when we shoot 12/20 one game and 4/20 the next. However, the thing that I would like to see most ( I have confidence we will start shooting better and more consistently) is our three point defense! It just seems like we give up way too many open threes!

When we play Tennessee, we may be in deep trouble if our 3-point defense doesn't improve, as well as our own 3-point shooting.

 

[ConnMotors]

The three point shot becomes easier when your post player (s) can make a lay up or drain a ten footer. Unfortunately, A Edwards plays for the Mystics now. I would bet that when Ice committed to UC she thought that she would be playing a 4. That is her natural position. Because of need she is playing a 5. Between her and Jana, she has the better outside shot. If those were sinking more she would have still started the other day. At this point I would play quick ball. Start Sarah, Paige, Azzi, Ashlynn and KK.

 

[Stinger92860]

I think this team is lacking in a number of areas. If we are discussing D here, I don’t think we currently have a lock down defender that plays one on one. Of course who is going to shut down JuJu.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think this team is lacking in a number of areas. If we are discussing D here, I don’t think we currently have a lock down defender that plays one on one. Of course who is going to shut down JuJu.

Well, someone played damn good defense on her in the second half. I wonder who it was. [hint: it was mainly KK] Juju only managed to take 6 shots and no 3s. Other than free throws (including a couple pretty dubious whistles), she would only have had 6 pts all half.

 

[uconnfan68]

I think this team is lacking in a number of areas. If we are discussing D here, I don’t think we currently have a lock down defender that plays one on one. Of course who is going to shut down JuJu.

We do, but she isn’t ready yet.

 

[Oldschoolbb]

I think UConn needs her to develop fearlessness, and Geno needs to let her play

Don't see that happening. Ice has the same issue with looking over her shoulder for the quick hook. Geno is Geno, and, unless he is forced to change his approach, he's not changing it.

 

[hoophuskee]

When we play Tennessee, we may be in deep trouble if our 3-point defense doesn't improve, as well as our own 3-point shooting.

Or Tennessee may be in deep trouble if UCONN mkaes their shots like they did vs Lousiville and Iowa State. We can all play the whatif game.

 

[Oldschoolbb]

Or Tennessee may be in deep trouble if UCONN mkaes their shots like they did vs Lousiville and Iowa State. We can all play the whatif game.

The question is whether Louisville and Iowa State shooting were the norm or aberrational. I think the latter.

 

[hoophuskee]

The question is whether Louisville and Iowa State shooting were the norm or aberrational. I think the latter.

The context I'm implying is that they will eventually be a good 3pt shoting team with chances to be prolific. I believe Geno feels the same way per the quote below in italics. Paige is an over 40% career shooter from 3. Azzi's frosh year she shot over 40% when she was at her healthiest. Shade's a pretty decent 3pt shooter, improved from last year. Sarah is a very good 3 pt shooter. And this year Chen has been very efficient. These players get big minutes and take more 3's. Shooting near 40% from now to end should be an eventual expected norm for the top players as a grouped unit.

At halftime Geno interviewed he said "we keep getting those open shots, I keep telling myself one of these days, they are going to go in."
I don't feel it's realstic to expect that they won't eventually be a good 3pt shooting team if healthy based on what I said above,