Is UConn Unbeatable in the Final 4?

[RockyMTblue2]

Mike Tyson said, "everybody has a plan until you punch them in the mouth."

Actually, Kara said pretty much the same thing in a pre or post game report last week about teams playing UConn. Faceguard KML and have Tuck and Stewie level you. Double Stewie and Oh Oh MoJeff, KML and Tuck ravage you.

 

[baggerbob]

Mo is better than Allen, but not by as much as Loyd is better than Kia. Loyd as a junior NPOY candidate is miles ahead of Kia. Allen and Loyd, in my opinion, are the best guard tandem.

They still have no one on Notre Dame to guard Stewie, unless they double or triple team her. If they do that Morgan, KML, and Moriah will have monster games.

 

[MilfordHusky]

We can be beaten/can lose. It's a funny game, and all kinds of thing can happen: injury, sickness, foul trouble, shots not falling, crazy shots going in, etc.

Maryland's guard trio is very good. We need to keep them off the 3-point line and out of the lane. I don't think they can slow us down much, though.

As we all know, ND is good. They make shots and get to the FT line. They also defend rather well.

These are clearly the 4 best teams. All of them are going to play hard for 40 minutes. If we bring our A game, I'm optimistic. A B- effort likely will not be enough, especially against ND.

 

[DobbsRover2]

But ND's are better than ours.

Always interesting to see what happens when you match real stats to the deep-seated beliefs of posters who may not look at much of any stats except points per game. Odd how often the stats can't be wedged into the opinions.

Now true, since the job of Allen and Loyd is to score points by trying to put up lots of points, they do shine there, whereas with MoJeff and Kia the goal is more to support the Huskies' unmatched front court. But basketball involves more than just throwing up shots, and judging players just on one stat is clearly the wrong way to go unless you want to say that Kelsey Mitchell, Jasmine Nwajei, Damika Martinez, Ashia Jones, and Alexa Hayward were the top five players in WCBB this year. So what do the stat comparisons for the ND and UConn tandems show? Well, if we throw in everything related to game (ND and UConn both at 37) and minute averages (ND at 2315 and UConn at 1967) for non-percentage stats for the two tandems, here's the averages:

PPG: ND - 30.7, UC - 22.7. Advantage ND
PPM: ND - .490, UC - .428. Advantage ND
FG%: ND - 48.2%, UC - 54.8%. Advantage UC
3FG%: ND - 34.0%, UC - 45.5%. Advantage UC
FT%: ND - 82.9%, UC - 75.7%. Advantage ND
RPG: ND - 8.78, UC - 6.05. Advantage ND
RPM: ND - .140, UC - .114. Advantage ND
APG: ND - 8.35, UC - 7.81. Advantage ND
APM: ND - .133, UC - .147. Advantage UC
TOPG: ND - 4.97, UC - 3.14. Advantage UC
TOPM: ND - .079, UC - 0.59. Advantage UC
A\TO: ND - 1.69, UC - 2.49. Advantage UC
BPG: ND - .51, UC - .19. Advantage ND
BPM: ND - .008, UC - .003. Advantage ND
SPG: ND - 2.9, UC - 3.7. Advantage UC
SPM: ND - .047, UC - .070. Advantage UC

So the tally is 8 categories for each side. As a UConn fan, I would note that MoJeff and Kia are better shooters, way better at hitting bombs, better at assists per minute and have a huge advantage in that key A\TO ratio, better at limiting turnovers, and get far more steals, all things that are key for guards. ND's tandem puts up way more shots and scores more, gets more rebounds, and blocks more shots. Based on the comparison, I would go with the UConn duo as being better tandem based on the shooting, assists, turnovers and steals, though obviously an ND fan would certainly take the points, rebounds and blocks (though remember it's 19 versus 7, small numbers for both).

ND fans (like Choke) would also likely claim UConn had a 32nd rated SOS based on an allegiance to brain-dead RPI, and a Husky fan would point to UConn's #2 rated SOS in the more rational Massey ratings to counter the crap. An ND fan would also likely claim that opponents guard Loyd and Allen with Herculean efforts while MoJeff and Nurse's defenders just twiddle their thumbs, and I know what some French knights on a Monty Python castle wall would say to that. Still others will say that stats don't mean anything because it's their gut feeling that counts, and I would say that a lot of wrong stuff can end up in a gut.

MoJeff and Nurse -- I like the numbers.

 

[Tonyc]

Well Im thinking UConn beats MD by 25+ . UConn guards the perimeter, bigs underneath handle MD bigs and that should do it just like the past few seasons. I keep reading about the Stanford game. Well imo that was a fluke for many reasons. What about the other 30+ games? Never in question as far as Im concerned not even the Dayton game which was a great game. UConn is a machine everybody else is a team jmo. UConn could lose but not be beat unless there are injuries, a lot of foul trouble or they don't show up. We saw what happened last season with KML and Tuck out and we played Duke MD Ohio ST Penn ST Stanford. No contest. Our opponents the next 2 games may start like a lion but UConn will make the necessary adjustments and that will be the difference. I will no argue or disagree with anybody but I believe this UConn team will not lose and Breanna Stewart with a lot of help from her team mates will l make sure of it.

 

[chrissaran]

hoophuskee, maybe you've forgotten about past injuries to Sue Bird, Shea Ralph, Svetlana Abrosimova, Bria Hartley and Morgan Tuck among others. Also, there's no way to predict foul trouble. I don't care about UConn not fouling a lot. They don't control thee calls the refs make. I hope it doesn't happen, but if Kia got hurt, do you think Saniya could replace her for the next two games? Nothing against Saniya, but UConn's defense fuels its offense, and we all know Kia is a much better defender than even an improved Saniya Chong.

 

[HGN]

I agree with the others posters here........NO , UConn is not Unbeatable. But the good news is none of the other 3 are unbeatable either. UConn has three(3) starters back from last years Championship team. NO OTHER team can say that. So UConn has the most experience of a FF Championship game. Pressure , yes there is presasure. But again , who has the experience of handling pressure in these situations? UConn.

So is UConn beatable , yes. But the odds are in UConn's favor that they will prevail.

 

[BRS24]

That is, of course, if she gets into the game. After Dayton, one has to wonder.

Regarding Stokes not playing much, if you watch the video on ESPNW of Geno in locker room, he tells all the players that didn't play much that it wasn't what they didn't do, the game just went a certain way.

LINK -go to Don't Take this for Granted video, at the 1:35 mark ... "get your a$$es ready, you didn't screw anything up"

 

[Henry]

Think about this. Dayton shot 45%+ from the floor, 56%+ from trey and 80% from the line and lost by 20+. Any UConn fans concerned before or during the next 2 games don't be. No team will match those numbers in the next 2 games and maybe not next season either. Kinda makes you realize how good this UConn team is and now if you really wanna dream big how good they will be next season...and that's no April Fools Joke. ala Eric in San Diego

The first half of the Dayton reminded me a little of the Stanford game with lax defense. They weren't switching well or helping on defense or getting hands in people's faces. Then came the second half where it was like a completely different team. Hands in faces, when switching they either stayed with the player they switched to and was in their face and kept their feet moving constantly. The women are familiar with Notre Dame and SC having played then this year and are somewhat familiar with Maryland so if there is an adjustment to be made it shouldn't take too long. The coaches usually have a good game plan and this group of players has learned from the Stanford and Dayton games. I'm confident but anything can happen. As long as Kaleena hits some threes she will keep Maryland off balance and if they choose to guard her tightly Morgan,Stewie or Moriah will score. Just remember, offense was not our problem vs. Dayton or Stanford. Letdowns on defense were. They must focus on D.

 

[FollowerCT]

FYI ... http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/editorial/bs-ed-terps-20150402-story.html

 

[mhshuskies]

Dayton should've lost to Louisville.


As Laettner said "Any team can be beaten on any given night"...

Dayton outplayed L'ville. It was a legitimate win. They were the better team.

 

[hoophuskee]

hoophuskee, maybe you've forgotten about past injuries to Sue Bird, Shea Ralph, Svetlana Abrosimova, Bria Hartley and Morgan Tuck among others. Also, there's no way to predict foul trouble. I don't care about UConn not fouling a lot. They don't control thee calls the refs make. I hope it doesn't happen, but if Kia got hurt, do you think Saniya could replace her for the next two games? Nothing against Saniya, but UConn's defense fuels its offense, and we all know Kia is a much better defender than even an improved Saniya Chong.

chrissan: Why did you address this to me? Because I said I didn't think that ND should be "feared?" Each person has their own point of fear, right? You speak of injuries - sure. And an asteroid almost hit us and someday it will. On that day nobody wins. Am I going ot fret over it? Nope.

All I'm talking about is if the teams were to meet 100% healthy. Notre Dame can win but their chances to win this year aren't very good at all. We are better than them at 4 positions. Why be shy in saying it? There is a reason why we're a heavy favorite to win. We're better. We might lose but it doesn't take away from the fact MoJeff is better than Allen. KML is better than Mabrey/Cable. Stewie is better than Turner. Tuck is better than Reimer.

And why do you bring up injuries only to UCONN? What happens if ND players get hurt?

Anyhow, we are the better team and we should win. I'm hoping that the asteroid doesn't hit.

 

[cohenzone]

Stanford was the aberration game. The only way I can see a team beating UConn is to match our D and win in a relatively low scoring game. I think the first half against Dayton was a good reminder of the Stanford game in the sense that they now fully understand when they might not be digging in as hard on D as they might imagine. Of the three teams left, Maryland, I think, faced the weakest league opposition - aside from us - and I think would be the bigger upset if they beat us. Really unimpressive against Tennessee, but hey, maybe that was their aberration game. I really think ND has more of the overall goods than SC and I think they'll win, but if they lose, I see it as only a mild upset. Most likely a UConn-ND final, but they have to play the games and who knows. Nobody is unbeatable.

 

[Buzzyboy]

I don't agree. USC can't score enough. ND has shot makers and a legit offense and ball movement. Size is overrated if you don't have the necessary skill. USC has some skill - but ball movement is shaky. I'd much prefer to play USC. And the more cracks ND has at us - the better chance they can pull off a huge surprise (I'm talking about next year too.).

I don't often say this but I disagree with Eric because I think we do a number on South Carolina. His remark about South Carolina "learning" how to play us is no different than Notre Dame "learning" how to play us. Notre Dame didn't have a complete team, with their outstanding freshman center not playing and the point spread was substantially lower than that of our beatdown of South Carolina who was playing at full strength. South Carolina has won more than a couple of games they had no business winning and it was more about sheer luck than ability that pulled those games out. The game in particular with Duke comes to mind. I feel Muffett is an appreciably better coach than Dawn Staley will ever be and the balance of her lineup has the potential to create many issues for anyone, including the Huskies.

 

[Buzzyboy]

We can be beaten/can lose. It's a funny game, and all kinds of thing can happen: injury, sickness, foul trouble, shots not falling, crazy shots going in, etc.

Maryland's guard trio is very good. We need to keep them off the 3-point line and out of the lane. I don't think they can slow us down much, though.

As we all know, ND is good. They make shots and get to the FT line. They also defend rather well.

These are clearly the 4 best teams. All of them are going to play hard for 40 minutes. If we bring our A game, I'm optimistic. A B- effort likely will not be enough, especially against ND.

When I read what you said about a B- effort not being good enough to beat ND, my thoughts were that would be ASSUMING that Notre Dame is playing at a much higher level but who is to say that Notre Dame or SC or Maryland are going to be playing at an A or A+ level. I've seen more than a few games, particularly in the kind of environment these teams will be playing in that BOTH teams are playing other than their "A" games so it's possible that a less than great game would still have the Huskies win the title. I'm hoping that we are playing that super game and win handily because I'm looking for a win and not great drama. I would say that Maryland and the winner of the Notre Dame-South Carolina game will not beat the Huskies playing a B- game against us because we are a more talented team.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Regarding Stokes not playing much, if you watch the video on ESPNW of Geno in locker room, he tells all the players that didn't play much that it wasn't what they didn't do, the game just went a certain way.

LINK -go to Don't Take this for Granted video, at the 1:35 mark ... "get your a$$es ready, you didn't screw anything up"

The most important part of that video was the end. The third and final episode of the Geno Project airs Friday April 10th at 7:30 PM on ESPN2.

 

[Tonyc]

Regarding Stokes not playing much, if you watch the video on ESPNW of Geno in locker room, he tells all the players that didn't play much that it wasn't what they didn't do, the game just went a certain way.

LINK -go to Don't Take this for Granted video, at the 1:35 mark ... "get your a$$es ready, you didn't screw anything up"

Geno is terrific in his speech.