Is college football happening? (Do not inject politics into threads outside the cesspool) | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Is college football happening? (Do not inject politics into threads outside the cesspool)

Stinger92860 said:
Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model
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That's true, though the model I linked accounts for that wide variation from the difficulty to project. The key from that model (and others) is the trajectory. The trajectory and rate of change is what will dictate beginning and end of current travel/gathering restrictions.

The second article also provides context on what the next steps here should be and why a "second wave' does not have to be in the same form that we see right now. Much of the conditions we're living in now are not the result of the virus but our country's lack of response to it in the weeks/months leading up to the middle of March. Mass testing, accurate contact tracing, improved treatments, and increased overall immunity are key factors moving forward.
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
This data model is very good. IHME | COVID-19 Projections

If, as projected, the number of deaths (and by default, cases) massively slows by June 1 and continues a downward trajectory to almost zero per day by July 1, a fall sports season at least with no fans in attendance is a very possible outcome.
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So I looked at the Connecticut data. The model show 99 ICU beds in CT and 638 needed on April15th. We must have more than 99 ICU beds across the state. What am I missing?

Bad data always is a red flag for me.
 
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Stinger92860 said:
So I looked at the Connecticut data. The model show 99 ICU beds in CT and 638 needed on April15th. We must have more than 99 ICU beds across the state. What am I missing?

Bad data always is a red flag for me.
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I can't speak to that. I know that this data source is pulling what's being reported by medical facilities.

Also, the model makes a distinction between an ICU bed and a general hospital bed. It could be that certain hospitals don't designate their beds as ICU beds? I don't have nearly enough knowledge of that area to know why that is.
 
Stinger92860 said:
So I looked at the Connecticut data. The model show 99 ICU beds in CT and 638 needed on April15th. We must have more than 99 ICU beds across the state. What am I missing?

Bad data always is a red flag for me.
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The beds may present, but not available. As in, they already have a person in them.
 
Stinger92860 said:
So I looked at the Connecticut data. The model show 99 ICU beds in CT and 638 needed on April15th. We must have more than 99 ICU beds across the state. What am I missing?

Bad data always is a red flag for me.
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Huh? There have to be at least 99 ICU or critical care beds in Hartford alone, where there are three Level 1 trauma centers. Then you have New Haven with Yale... and I just googled it, there are level 2 trauma centers in Bridgeport, Danbury, Norwalk, Stamford and Waterbury...

and many community-based hospitals with 200ish beds have at least a 10-bed ICU...
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
That's true, though the model I linked accounts for that wide variation from the difficulty to project. The key from that model (and others) is the trajectory. The trajectory and rate of change is what will dictate beginning and end of current travel/gathering restrictions.

The second article also provides context on what the next steps here should be and why a "second wave' does not have to be in the same form that we see right now. Much of the conditions we're living in now are not the result of the virus but our country's lack of response to it in the weeks/months leading up to the middle of March. Mass testing, accurate contact tracing, improved treatments, and increased overall immunity are key factors moving forward.
Expand ...

Interesting (and factual) story from ABC News quoted by Breitbart News.
Over 3.4 Million Poured into the U.S. as Coronavirus Outbreak Began

China identified its first case on November 17 but hid it from the world until December 31. We got our first case January 21 and on February 1, when we had a total of 12 confirmed cases, President Trump imposed the ban on travel to the USA by those, other than US citizens, who had traveled to China in the previous 14 days. Taking that action caused a huge uproar because it disrupted peoples' plans but it was the right move. The same thing happened a few days later when he imposed the ban on Europe.

All told, in the months of December, January and February (not sure why the last two weeks of November were omitted) there were over 759,000 travelers to the USA from China, a number that includes about 228,000 Americans returning home. All told there were 3.4 million travelers to the USA in those months, including hundreds of thousands from Italy and other countries that were heavily impacted by the virus.

The real problem was China which, for whatever reason, chose to not tell the world about the virus for 6 weeks, then denied access to early samples when we offered assistance, then threw reporters from the NY Time, Washington Post and Wall Street Journal out of the country. Those are all signs they did not want the world to know the full truth about what occurred there and the world is suffering dramatically because of their failures.
 
Rocktheworld said:
Huh? There have to be 99 ICU or critical care beds in Hartford alone, where there are three Level 1 trauma centers. Then you have New Haven with Yale... and I just googled it, there are level 2 trauma centers in Bridgeport, Danbury, Norwalk, Stamford and Waterbury...

and many community-based hospitals with 200ish beds have at least a 10-bed ICU...
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The model has bad/dated data and doesn’t account for ongoing surge capacity where whole floors have been converted into “Intensive Care Units”.
 
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brasssbonanzaa said:
I can't speak to that. I know that this data source is pulling what's being reported by medical facilities.

Also, the model makes a distinction between an ICU bed and a general hospital bed. It could be that certain hospitals don't designate their beds as ICU beds? I don't have nearly enough knowledge of that area to know why that is.
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It would be unusual for a hospital to not designate its number of ICU beds.

Saw a doctor from New York last night describe his experience with virus patients and how much underlying conditions like diabetes cause this virus to be so problematic. He has over 90 that were hospitalized, with a significant percentage having diabetes and other underlying conditions, and put them all on the course of therapy using hydrochloroquine and azithromycin, and none required intubation. He believes we are vastly overestimating the number of ICU beds and ventilators we'll need and feels so strongly about it because of his patients outcomes versus those who have not been put on that drug regimen.
 
huskymedic said:
The model has bad/dated data and doesn’t account for ongoing surge capacity where whole floors have been converted into “Intensive Care Units”.
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No I mean even before all this started. I have to figure trauma centers in major cities often have at least 30 critical care beds a piece. My network’s two trauma centers, level 1 and 2 respectively, have about 75 combined; and the level 1 is old and should have more, the much much newer level 2 has two ICU floors with 28 beds in each
 
Watchdog said:
It would be unusual for a hospital to not designate its number of ICU beds.

Saw a doctor from New York last night describe his experience with virus patients and how much underlying conditions like diabetes cause this virus to be so problematic. He has over 90 that were hospitalized, with a significant percentage having diabetes and other underlying conditions, and put them all on the course of therapy using hydrochloroquine and azithromycin, and none required intubation. He believes we are vastly overestimating the number of ICU beds and ventilators we'll need and feels so strongly about it because of his patients outcomes versus those who have not been put on that drug regimen.
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That's good to hear!

That said, the cautiousness among broad-ranging use of that drug combination is reasonable. As I understand it, they're very risky drugs and in the wrong circumstances could produce much more harm than good. So, the more research and trial use on patients that can be done, the more the medical community can make more targeted and informed recommendations for broad use.

Either way, increased efficacy of treatment is one of the key benchmarks for getting us out of this mess in the shorter term before a vaccine is developed, proven, and mass-produced.
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
I can't speak to that. I know that this data source is pulling what's being reported by medical facilities.

Also, the model makes a distinction between an ICU bed and a general hospital bed. It could be that certain hospitals don't designate their beds as ICU beds? I don't have nearly enough knowledge of that area to know why that is.
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Thanks!
 
kingdobbs said:
The beds may present, but not available. As in, they already have a person in them.
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Thats not way it was worded, but if used for general progression, i hope its valid and we are close to peak.

Thanks to all for sharing.
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
That's good to hear!

That said, the cautiousness among broad-ranging use of that drug combination is reasonable. As I understand it, they're very risky drugs and in the wrong circumstances could produce much more harm than good. So, the more research and trial use on patients that can be done, the more the medical community can make more targeted and informed recommendations for broad use.

Either way, increased efficacy of treatment is one of the key benchmarks for getting us out of this mess in the shorter term before a vaccine is developed, proven, and mass-produced.
Expand ...

I’ve taken hydrochloroquine for 3 years and i’m positive i’ve also taken a zpack at least once. I’ve never had any issues. They watch me for macular degeneration and no problems so far.

The UPMC vaccine is very interesting for me, due to the ability to mass produce. We can’t wait months for a phase 1 trial. There has to be a way to speed up the deployment. If it works and we never use it, that would be terrible. That said, I understand the flip side.
 
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Stinger92860 said:
I’ve taken hydrochloroquine for 3 years and i’m positive i’ve also taken a zpack at least once. I’ve never had any issues. They watch me for macular degeneration and no problems so far.

The UPMC vaccine is very interesting for me, due to the ability to mass produce. We can’t wait months for a phase 1 trial. There has to be a way to speed up the deployment. If it works and we never use it, that would be terrible. That said, I understand the flip side.
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Interesting, and thanks for the perspective. I suspect the authorities aren't hyping it as a mass-use treatment just yet because they know everyone would immediately rush to get it and use it, most likely irresponsibly.

I have no data to back this up, but there's something in all of this that tells me improvements in treatment are/will be made very soon. Literally every researcher in the world is going at this all at once. We may not get there tomorrow, but something tells me within 60-90 days there's going to be more information on how to better treat the virus. Not a vaccine, but meaningful progress in lessening the impact of one person getting infected.

For those looking to project whether sports will occur this fall/winter, that's going to be a key barometer. Again, anyone with an answer of whether there'll be a football season is a fool - no one has a clue.
 
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