Team Basics:
ISU is one of the best offensive teams in the country (117.8 Adj Off , 10th), but their defense is only above average (98.8 Adj Def , 58th).
The most telling stylistic trait of their team is their pace on offense. They have on average the 8th shortest offensive possession nationally, but their defensive possessions are actually longer than the average teams' (260th). This indicates that they don't press and force turnovers (like Louisville or VCU), but push the ball at any opportunity once they do get their hands on the ball.
The injury to Georges Niang is important for a few reasons, but the biggest is simply that an inferior and inexperienced player is going to be getting some of his minutes. As a team, the Cyclones give only 21.9% of their minutes to bench players, and the player who will see the biggest bump is Daniel Edozie (who was seeing the equivalent of Leon Tolksdorf minutes prior to this injury.) Expect them to play lineups with 5 guys 6'6 or shorter frequently, as their remaining 6 healthy guys who get the most minutes fit this requirement (-2.9 Height WITH Niang).
They are led by a pair of seniors (including a 5th year), but the balance of their team is young, leading to below average team experience (234th) overall. However, because of those senior leaders and a remarkably tough schedule this year (3rd), expect them to be battle-tested and not wilt to pressure.
Offensive Tendencies:
Iowa State's offense is very interesting from a statistical point of view. They almost never turn the ball over (9th fewest TO's) despite their quick pace, but they also don't get a ton of offensive rebounds (28.5%, 270th) or draw a ton of fouls (36.8 FTA/FGA, 269th) as a team over the course of a game. They have a reputation as a great shooting team, and they are (EFG% 54.3, 18th), but not in the area you'd expect.
Their ratio of 3PAs to FGAs is quite high (60th), and all 6 of their top min players shoot at least 33% from deep (and took at least 60 3's each), but they shoot only 35.8% as a team. Believe it or not, this is where Georges Niang's absence may help them (addition via subtraction), as he was a high-volume shooter who didn't shoot a great percentage from deep (rest of team besides him shoots 37.1%, bumping up their national ranking by 40 spots in that category).
The most surprising aspect of their offense is the 54.6% they shoot on 2pt FGs (9th). For a team with no height, this is supremely unusual. This is also the area that losing Niang will actually hurt them. He took a bunch of 2s (100 more than any UConn player attempted) and made 54% of them. Dustin Hogue shots an incredible 63% inside the arc, but doesn't create his own shot very often; They assist on most of the baskets they make, as a result of transition passing, well-run sets, and (perhaps mostly with Niang) interior/kick-out passing from the block. A key to their high FG% according to interviews with their coach is not taking long 2-point jumpers by design.
Stars:
It would be unwise not to spend some time on Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane. Ejim won Big 12 Player of the Year, but Kane has been getting even more national recognition (deservedly). With Niang out (ISU's leading shot taker), both Kane and Ejim will be taking even more shots.
Kane is a versatile player, capable of shooting the 3 (almost 40%), and driving to the basket and finishing over bigger players with his strength (52% on 2s, Napier is at 45%). He's also a threat to drive and pass or lead the break (30.7%, 67th in Assist Rate, about equivalent with Napier). He's hard to get into foul trouble (2.5 FC/40), but draws a lot of fouls (5.9 FD/40, both numbers again eerily similar to Napier). As much as we think of Napier as a rebounding guard, Kane is even better (4.2 OR%, 16.5 DR%). His main weakness is his 65% FT shooting. Think a better passing Sean Kilpatrick with a more consistent outside shot. Yeah.
Melvin Ejim is an efficient all-around offensive weapon. He takes a lot of shots, but shoots a staggering 58% on his (almost 300) 2PA. Not to mention he shoots a respectable 34.5% on his 3's. Combined, he scores 1.13 points per shot attempt (for reference Doug McDermott scores about 1.20 PPA, and Napier just over 1). He's a very proficient rebounder (9.3 OR%, 18.5 DR%), especially for his size. He draws a good number of fouls (4.9/40), and shoots a good percentage (76.1%) from the line.
Defensive Tendencies:
The Cyclones' defense is a much different story from their offense. It's not bad (in fact, probably above average), but not nearly as effective, and won't be able to take over a game and impose it's will like elite defenses can. Their biggest strengths, for example, are things they don't do very often: foul (30.4 FTA/FGA, 15th), or give up opposing offensive rebounds (28.6, 49th). They also don't turn the opponent over (16.0 TO%, 308th), but that's not a good thing. Safe might be a good description of their defense, although most teams up their pressure in the tournament, so these numbers may end up higher in the upcoming game.
As far as shooting defense goes, height has been shown to be highly correlated to opposing FG%, and so it is easy to see why Iowa St. does not have particularly good numbers in this area. Their 3pt% in particular is very average (33.7%, 134th), which is a great sign for UConn (one of Louisville's calling cards is great 3pt% D). Their interior FG% (2pt% 45.8, 73rd) is slightly better, but not intimidating. Opponents shoot an average number of 3-pointers compared to 2-point attempts, so there isn't much evidence of them dictating style to the opposing offense.
Conclusion:
The power metrics are pretty close, in fact we are right next to each other in KenPom, and Vegas opened the game as a pick'em in many places (although it seems to have settled at Iowa St. -1, which makes sense considering they are the higher seed). If UConn can slow down Iowa St. and force them to try and score against our length and interior defense (our greatest strength), that will be UConn's best chance. To some extent, the game will come down to variance; which team will happen to shoot better from 3 on this day could swing the score by many points. Fortunately, we're a great 3-point shooting team, and hopefully we'll have some sort of home court advantage.
ISU is one of the best offensive teams in the country (117.8 Adj Off , 10th), but their defense is only above average (98.8 Adj Def , 58th).
The most telling stylistic trait of their team is their pace on offense. They have on average the 8th shortest offensive possession nationally, but their defensive possessions are actually longer than the average teams' (260th). This indicates that they don't press and force turnovers (like Louisville or VCU), but push the ball at any opportunity once they do get their hands on the ball.
The injury to Georges Niang is important for a few reasons, but the biggest is simply that an inferior and inexperienced player is going to be getting some of his minutes. As a team, the Cyclones give only 21.9% of their minutes to bench players, and the player who will see the biggest bump is Daniel Edozie (who was seeing the equivalent of Leon Tolksdorf minutes prior to this injury.) Expect them to play lineups with 5 guys 6'6 or shorter frequently, as their remaining 6 healthy guys who get the most minutes fit this requirement (-2.9 Height WITH Niang).
They are led by a pair of seniors (including a 5th year), but the balance of their team is young, leading to below average team experience (234th) overall. However, because of those senior leaders and a remarkably tough schedule this year (3rd), expect them to be battle-tested and not wilt to pressure.
Offensive Tendencies:
Iowa State's offense is very interesting from a statistical point of view. They almost never turn the ball over (9th fewest TO's) despite their quick pace, but they also don't get a ton of offensive rebounds (28.5%, 270th) or draw a ton of fouls (36.8 FTA/FGA, 269th) as a team over the course of a game. They have a reputation as a great shooting team, and they are (EFG% 54.3, 18th), but not in the area you'd expect.
Their ratio of 3PAs to FGAs is quite high (60th), and all 6 of their top min players shoot at least 33% from deep (and took at least 60 3's each), but they shoot only 35.8% as a team. Believe it or not, this is where Georges Niang's absence may help them (addition via subtraction), as he was a high-volume shooter who didn't shoot a great percentage from deep (rest of team besides him shoots 37.1%, bumping up their national ranking by 40 spots in that category).
The most surprising aspect of their offense is the 54.6% they shoot on 2pt FGs (9th). For a team with no height, this is supremely unusual. This is also the area that losing Niang will actually hurt them. He took a bunch of 2s (100 more than any UConn player attempted) and made 54% of them. Dustin Hogue shots an incredible 63% inside the arc, but doesn't create his own shot very often; They assist on most of the baskets they make, as a result of transition passing, well-run sets, and (perhaps mostly with Niang) interior/kick-out passing from the block. A key to their high FG% according to interviews with their coach is not taking long 2-point jumpers by design.
Stars:
It would be unwise not to spend some time on Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane. Ejim won Big 12 Player of the Year, but Kane has been getting even more national recognition (deservedly). With Niang out (ISU's leading shot taker), both Kane and Ejim will be taking even more shots.
Kane is a versatile player, capable of shooting the 3 (almost 40%), and driving to the basket and finishing over bigger players with his strength (52% on 2s, Napier is at 45%). He's also a threat to drive and pass or lead the break (30.7%, 67th in Assist Rate, about equivalent with Napier). He's hard to get into foul trouble (2.5 FC/40), but draws a lot of fouls (5.9 FD/40, both numbers again eerily similar to Napier). As much as we think of Napier as a rebounding guard, Kane is even better (4.2 OR%, 16.5 DR%). His main weakness is his 65% FT shooting. Think a better passing Sean Kilpatrick with a more consistent outside shot. Yeah.
Melvin Ejim is an efficient all-around offensive weapon. He takes a lot of shots, but shoots a staggering 58% on his (almost 300) 2PA. Not to mention he shoots a respectable 34.5% on his 3's. Combined, he scores 1.13 points per shot attempt (for reference Doug McDermott scores about 1.20 PPA, and Napier just over 1). He's a very proficient rebounder (9.3 OR%, 18.5 DR%), especially for his size. He draws a good number of fouls (4.9/40), and shoots a good percentage (76.1%) from the line.
Defensive Tendencies:
The Cyclones' defense is a much different story from their offense. It's not bad (in fact, probably above average), but not nearly as effective, and won't be able to take over a game and impose it's will like elite defenses can. Their biggest strengths, for example, are things they don't do very often: foul (30.4 FTA/FGA, 15th), or give up opposing offensive rebounds (28.6, 49th). They also don't turn the opponent over (16.0 TO%, 308th), but that's not a good thing. Safe might be a good description of their defense, although most teams up their pressure in the tournament, so these numbers may end up higher in the upcoming game.
As far as shooting defense goes, height has been shown to be highly correlated to opposing FG%, and so it is easy to see why Iowa St. does not have particularly good numbers in this area. Their 3pt% in particular is very average (33.7%, 134th), which is a great sign for UConn (one of Louisville's calling cards is great 3pt% D). Their interior FG% (2pt% 45.8, 73rd) is slightly better, but not intimidating. Opponents shoot an average number of 3-pointers compared to 2-point attempts, so there isn't much evidence of them dictating style to the opposing offense.
Conclusion:
The power metrics are pretty close, in fact we are right next to each other in KenPom, and Vegas opened the game as a pick'em in many places (although it seems to have settled at Iowa St. -1, which makes sense considering they are the higher seed). If UConn can slow down Iowa St. and force them to try and score against our length and interior defense (our greatest strength), that will be UConn's best chance. To some extent, the game will come down to variance; which team will happen to shoot better from 3 on this day could swing the score by many points. Fortunately, we're a great 3-point shooting team, and hopefully we'll have some sort of home court advantage.
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