Iowa-LSU forecasts

[Bone Dog]

Well, it's here. How do we all think the game will play out? Here's a few of my intuitions:

1. Clark and Czinano will be difficult for LSU to stop -- ha! big surprise there. Iowa doesn't face a huge height disadvantage in this game. And I think we all finally saw just how quickly Czinano can get up a good shot in the low post. She may not be straight-line speedy, but she gets that shot off in the blink of an eye.

2. And LSU doesn't have any good matchup to guard Caitlin. Johnson, Carson or Poa would seem to be the likeliest candidates, and Johnson has the quickness to keep up. But I'm not sure is skilled enough or focused enough to be effective against someone with the vast arsenal of weapons Caitlin has.

3. By the same token, Iowa doesn't really have anyone who can matchup with Reese. She should get points and rebounds. Will she be able to defend Czinano without getting into foul trouble? This is an open question.

4. Morris can be a decisive factor for LSU. If she goes off, as she has done several times recently, she takes a lot of pressure off the front court. Does Iowa have a matchup for her? I'd say Gabby Marshall is as close to tailor-made to guard Morris as anyone in D1. But even she may not be enough.

5. Poole is not a great scorer, but she is a sort of X factor for LSU. She's a difficult matchup because she's very strong and runs the court surprisingly well. She can be very disruptive on D. Will Kate Martin be able to contain her? Poole can be a bit of a bully in her quest for tie-ups - does Iowa have anyone hardy enough to stand up to her in their back court?

I half expect this game to go more or less the way the UConn-Baylor game from 2 years ago. As long as Baylor could contain Paige, they had a decisive advantage. But as soon as Didi Richards went down with that injury in the 3rd quarter, Paige went off and practically put the game away. There were some last second tense moments, but it's clear that a player like Paige could decide the game if she wasn't contained. Tomorrow's game features another Mulkey designed team, which means there will be some "bully-ball" but also really good post play. If they can contain Caitlin, they can win. Reese having a big night will not be enough, because Caitlin can easily have a much bigger night. My guess is LSU won't be able to contain Caitlin.

 

[RedStickHusky]

Iowa would seem an easy pick, but the way this tourney has gone... Who knows? I expect LSU will try to ugly it up though.

 

[bballnut90]

I think Iowa is the clear favorite but LSU has been underestimated all year. An off game from Clark and LSU could definitely win. They need another huge game from Morris who was excellent in the semifinals.

 

[tigers4ever]

Well, it's here. How do we all think the game will play out? Here's a few of my intuitions:

1. Clark and Czinano will be difficult for LSU to stop -- ha! big surprise there. Iowa doesn't face a huge height disadvantage in this game. And I think we all finally saw just how quickly Czinano can get up a good shot in the low post. She may not be straight-line speedy, but she gets that shot off in the blink of an eye.

2. And LSU doesn't have any good matchup to guard Caitlin. Johnson, Carson or Poa would seem to be the likeliest candidates, and Johnson has the quickness to keep up. But I'm not sure is skilled enough or focused enough to be effective against someone with the vast arsenal of weapons Caitlin has.

3. By the same token, Iowa doesn't really have anyone who can matchup with Reese. She should get points and rebounds. Will she be able to defend Czinano without getting into foul trouble? This is an open question.

4. Morris can be a decisive factor for LSU. If she goes off, as she has done several times recently, she takes a lot of pressure off the front court. Does Iowa have a matchup for her? I'd say Gabby Marshall is as close to tailor-made to guard Morris as anyone in D1. But even she may not be enough.

5. Poole is not a great scorer, but she is a sort of X factor for LSU. She's a difficult matchup because she's very strong and runs the court surprisingly well. She can be very disruptive on D. Will Kate Martin be able to contain her? Poole can be a bit of a bully in her quest for tie-ups - does Iowa have anyone hardy enough to stand up to her in their back court?

I half expect this game to go more or less the way the UConn-Baylor game from 2 years ago. As long as Baylor could contain Paige, they had a decisive advantage. But as soon as Didi Richards went down with that injury in the 3rd quarter, Paige went off and practically put the game away. There were some last second tense moments, but it's clear that a player like Paige could decide the game if she wasn't contained. Tomorrow's game features another Mulkey designed team, which means there will be some "bully-ball" but also really good post play. If they can contain Caitlin, they can win. Reese having a big night will not be enough, because Caitlin can easily have a much bigger night. My guess is LSU won't be able to contain Caitlin.

Carson and Poa are the worst two defenders on LSU's team. Neither even start. If that is the Mulkey/Starkey gameplan for Clark, LSU is in big trouble.

 

[tigers4ever]

Iowa would seem an easy pick, but the was tourney has gone... Who knows? I expect LSU will try to ugly it up though.

Yep, LSU will play defense. Not nearly as aesthetically pleasing as Iowa's offense but thats ok. I think any coach anytime would take an ugly win for the national championship.

 

[SECbbfan24]

Carson and Poa are the worst two defenders on LSU's team. Neither even start. If that is the Mulkey/Starkey gameplan for Clark, LSU is in big trouble.

Poa isn't bad defensively, but she isn't the most athletic and can't create her own shot but she does bring some decent defense.

Carson seems like a lovely kid but she just takes up space for LSU and offers nothing on either end. She has maybe had 2 decent games in the last two months, and thats it. There is a reason Mulkey put Poole in the starting lineup.

You will likely see Morris, Flaujae and maybe Poole guard clark. You aren't going to stop her at all but they will have to make decisions on how they want to manage it. I thought Poole/Morris did as good a job as they could on Amoore

 

[Dwilliams02]

Poa isn't bad defensively, but she isn't the most athletic and can't create her own shot but she does bring some decent defense.

Carson seems like a lovely kid but she just takes up space for LSU and offers nothing on either end. She has maybe had 2 decent games in the last two months, and thats it. There is a reason Mulkey put Poole in the starting lineup.

You will likely see Morris, Flaujae and maybe Poole guard clark. You aren't going to stop her at all but they will have to make decisions on how they want to manage it. I thought Poole/Morris did as good a job as they could on Amoore

Poa is actually very good defensively. She just lack other things that don't keep her on the court.

 

[Bone Dog]

Carson and Poa are the worst two defenders on LSU's team. Neither even start. If that is the Mulkey/Starkey gameplan for Clark, LSU is in big trouble.

Yep, LSU will play defense. Not nearly as aesthetically pleasing as Iowa's offense but thats ok. I think any coach anytime would take an ugly win for the national championship.

If not Carson and Poa, who besides Johnson will guard Caitlin? And do you think Johnson is up to defending her?

There’s playing defense and then there’s playing rugby @tigers4ever . One involves moving one’s feet more quickly than the offensive player, switching crisply and getting all the loose balls. The other involves grabbing holding and wrestling. Which one are you forecasting here?

@SECbbfan24 Aamoore is 5’6”. I don’t think it will be as easy for either Morris or Poole to contain Caitlin at 6’0” without fouling her. If that’s who Kim assigns the task to, I think Caitlin will get a lot of assists in addition to a lot of points.

 

[SECbbfan24]

If not Carson and Poa, who besides Johnson will guard Caitlin? And do you think Johnson is up to defending her?

I get there is a size difference but Morris is probably going to. Flaujae is long athletic and quick but inexperienced, but her while her offense has gone cold her defense has been excellent in the NCAAT. But likely it will be a team effort of rotating different players. Like we said you aren't going to stop Clark but there are some things you could potentially do to try to get it out of her hands

Carson likely will barely play, same with Poa

 

[SECbbfan24]

@SECbbfan24 Aamoore is 5’6”. I don’t think it will be as easy for either Morris or Poole to contain Caitlin at 6’0” without fouling her. If that’s who Kim assigns the task to, I think Caitlin will get a lot of assist in addition to a lot of points.

LSU might as well just not show up then

 

[tigers4ever]

Poa is actually very good defensively. She just lack other things that don't keep her on the court.

Didn't say Poa wasn't good defensively, although I think her first step is slow which Clark would feed off of. I said she was one of worst two on team although I should have more accurately said worst two of the 8 players that are in the rotation. I think the starting 5 and Smith are all better defensively.

 

[wingsfan055]

Mulkey is a smart coach and will do things (traps, double teams) to disrupt Clark. Unlike Staley, she'll force other Iowa players to beat LSU.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Poole has one advantage. She has played against Clark at tOSU. Sometimes familiarity has its positives.

Should be a great game. On paper it’s easy to pick Iowa but not many thought LSU would make it this far and they have.

Gonna be a great game

 

[tigers4ever]

If not Carson and Poa, who besides Johnson will guard Caitlin? And do you think Johnson is up to defending her?

There’s playing defense and then there’s playing rugby @tigers4ever . One involves moving one’s feet more quickly than the offensive player, switching crisply and getting all the loose balls. The other involves grabbing holding and wrestling. Which one are you forecasting here?

@SECbbfan24 Aamoore is 5’6”. I don’t think it will be as easy for either Morris or Poole to contain Caitlin at 6’0” without fouling her. If that’s who Kim assigns the task to, I think Caitlin will get a lot of assists in addition to a lot of points.

I think Starkey/Mulkey have 24 hours or so left to gameplan for Clark. But I don't see Mulkey changing her starting 5 at this point. She just inserted Poole as a starter 4 games ago and that's probably a big reason LSU is in the finals. So it's going to be Morris, Flau'jae, Reese or Poole. Poa, Carson and Smith will play depending upon score and foul situation. I think Williams will be on MC. I think LSU plays tough defense but they are not dirty. If refs are calling it close, LSU will adjust. If not, it will be physical. And if it becomes a wrestling match, everyone knows Iowa is the wrestling school so I guess LSU would be in trouble.

 

[DefenseBB]

The issue for LSU is can anyone else besides Morris hit an outside shot? Think of Morris as Zia Cooke where Gabby Marshall will do her best to shadow her all game. Iowa will then slack off the rest to pack the paint like they did against SC so Williams and Reese will have to contend with 4 players helping all the time. The difference is Reese isn't 6'5 Boston nor 6'7" Cardoso so the entry passes have to be more precise. Williams will have to guard Czinano as rarely does Kim put Angel on the top post of the other team.

This game comes down to execution, if Iowa can execute defensively like they did against SC and even if they shoot as they did (below their seasonal averages) they should win.

Poole, regardless of her time at tOSU cannot handle Clark and would be foolish to try that for any extended time. To me, Johnson will have to be on Clark the majority of the time but with all the pick and rolls that Iowa can execute, that is a very tough task.

All that said, this is still why they play the game. I put LSU's chances at 35%. Massey has the game at 52%-48% and 79-77 in favor of Iowa.

 

[Geew1992]

 

[stwainfan]

Did she really say that?

 

[RedStickHusky]

Did she really say that?

... On the map of Baton Rouge... But hey, was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

[bovwa10]

I think it all depends on Caitlin’s legs. If she can score 40 again, I think Iowa wins. If not then it’s anyone’s guess. I also have a feeling her supporting cast will step up more in the final.

 

[shiverz45]

I think LSU might pull out the win. Caitlin was cramping up at the end of the game. Can she recover in time to carry Iowa against another physical team? The strategy they had against SC won't work against LSU. LSU is not as determined to get it inside as SC. LSU has more outside shooters than SC. If Morris and Williams play like they did against VT, I like LSU chances.

 

[SECbbfan24]

It would be nice for Flaujae to finally make a shot. She seems like a head case at this point offensively, all year she made shots for the most part but can't throw it into the ocean now no matter how open she is. But her D has been outstanding.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

I think LSU. LSU plays better up tempo than South Carolina does so Iowa isn’t going to want to speed them up as much as LSU will benefit from chaos. LSU also has better point guard play than South Carolina which will allow them to better take advantage of their inside presence.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

In the map of social media, it's arguably a true stmt. This chart shows their social media presence and if you add flaujae and Angel, they have more followers than all others combined. Most of these followers wouldn't be following bb but for this. Angel had 70k which she came to LSU. Since that article was written 3 days ago, she has gained another 62k followers. Social media and nil can be all you want but the timing between the current growth of the game and nil can't be ignored.

Paige has 1 million social media followers. This is a wild take.

 

[sun]

I won't be disappointed no matter who wins but I'm rooting for LSU.
LSU is playing with a lot of intensity & Kim Mulkey has them playing on their toes.

 

[tigers4ever]

Paige has 1 million social media followers. This is a wild take.

I know she does and I had already deleted my post because I didn't want a huge debate on the who is on the list. I think Paige grew the game tremendously two years ago and think she will grow it again once she is not injured. And I don't think all that growth was associated with her play. It's her nil and social media as well. My point was while Angel's language contained some egocentric hyperbole, she's not wrong that individual teams and players that have heavy social media presence are directly growing the sport. Surprisingly Kim has been very open to this and that's part of what Angel has been saying all year, she can be herself.