Ionescu, Stewart agree: Ducks would've won title

[SCspur]

Whatever. Oregon had a slightly higher margin of victory than SC, what else matters? Keep moving the goal posts around to fit your argument.

Hey, I see SC's awesome defense gave up 78 points to 'Bama (seriously?), 82 to Arkansas and 79 to Mississippi St. back in January, and 2 of those were at home. What happened there? Doesn't sound very elite to me. Nobody scored more than 72 all year against Oregon, unless you count the US National Team.

Lol if you’re an Oregon fan just say so.... it’s makes no sense for you to be all worked up. Oregon didn’t play the teams SC faced and vice versa so not sure you can say Arkansas and Miss St scoring those high number of points matters considering both those teams were top 12 in ppg while Alabama was also top 50. The next closest school in ppg in the PAC-12 to compare was Stanford at 33. Which is pretty pathetic considering the PAC is was “strong” and the “best conference”.

 

[SCspur]

How is SC more elite defensively than Baylor? The numbers you initially were inaccurate, and from stats and eye test both teams looked very comparable. And if you're using stats, use actual statistics instead of national rankings, since a difference of 1 ppg can drop a team literally 25 spots on the national rankings even though 1 point per game is not a distinguishable differentiator when comparing head teams head to head.

And rebounds per game is not the best indicator of how good a team is at rebounding even though it is a measured stat. By that logic, Oregon is better at preventing teams from rebounding than SC since they only give up 29.9 rebounds per game to SC's 34.4. What matters is how many rebounds you grab compared to your opponent. If you look at percentages, Oregon grabbed 57.0% of possible rebounds while South Carolina grabbed 57.7%. That's virtually the same. Not once was Oregon significantly outdone on the glass all season. I don't understand how you can consider SC to be elite as a rebounding team but not Oregon.

Never did I ever say SC was more elite defensively than Baylor. Read my initial post where I said them being absent from bpg, fg D, spg, and defensive rebound margin stats suggest they aren’t elite defensively...

 

[bballnut90]

Never did I ever say SC was more elite defensively than Baylor. Read my initial post where I said them being absent from bpg, fg D, spg, and defensive rebound margin stats suggest they aren’t elite defensively...

My bad...Oregon. But alright, even if we go by those stats (which don't fully paint the picture), if you look at 2 of the 3 most recent champions, your 2017 SC team and 2018 Notre Dame, Oregon comes out very favorable:

Defensive Points Per Game:
2020 Oregon: 57.9 per game
2018 ND: 67.8 per game
2017 SC: 56.9 per game

Blocks per game:
2020 Oregon: 2.7 per game
2018 ND: 3.2 per game
2017 SC: 5.6 per game

FG Defense:
2020 Oregon: 37.9%
2018 ND: 40.0%
2017 SC: 35.6%

3pt Defense:
2020 Oregon: 28.3%
2018 ND: 34.5%
2017 SC: 26.8%

Steals:
2020 Oregon: 8.7 per game
2018 ND: 8.2 per game
2017 SC: 8.5 per game

Rebound Margin:
2020 Oregon: 9.8 per game
2018 ND: 8.2 per game
2017 SC: 6.3 per game

Defensive Rebound Margin
2020 Oregon: 7.6 per game
2018 ND: 6.8 per game
2017 SC: 6.5 per game

So there you go. There are 2 recent champions that had worse rebounding and comparable or worse defense to Oregon who've won titles recently.

 

[SCspur]

My bad...Oregon. But alright, even if we go by those stats (which don't fully paint the picture), if you look at 2 of the 3 most recent champions, your 2017 SC team and 2018 Notre Dame, Oregon comes out very favorable:

Defensive Points Per Game:
2020 Oregon: 57.9 per game
2018 ND: 67.8 per game
2017 SC: 56.9 per game

Blocks per game:
2020 Oregon: 2.7 per game
2018 ND: 3.2 per game
2017 SC: 5.6 per game

FG Defense:
2020 Oregon: 37.9%
2018 ND: 40.0%
2017 SC: 35.6%

3pt Defense:
2020 Oregon: 28.3%
2018 ND: 34.5%
2017 SC: 26.8%

Steals:
2020 Oregon: 8.7 per game
2018 ND: 8.2 per game
2017 SC: 8.5 per game

Rebound Margin:
2020 Oregon: 9.8 per game
2018 ND: 8.2 per game
2017 SC: 6.3 per game

Defensive Rebound Margin
2020 Oregon: 7.6 per game
2018 ND: 6.8 per game
2017 SC: 6.5 per game

So there you go. There are 2 recent champions that had worse rebounding and comparable or worse defense to Oregon who've won titles recently.

My bad...Oregon. But alright, even if we go by those stats (which don't fully paint the picture), if you look at 2 of the 3 most recent champions, your 2017 SC team and 2018 Notre Dame, Oregon comes out very favorable:

Defensive Points Per Game:
2020 Oregon: 57.9 per game
2018 ND: 67.8 per game
2017 SC: 56.9 per game

Blocks per game:
2020 Oregon: 2.7 per game
2018 ND: 3.2 per game
2017 SC: 5.6 per game

FG Defense:
2020 Oregon: 37.9%
2018 ND: 40.0%
2017 SC: 35.6%

3pt Defense:
2020 Oregon: 28.3%
2018 ND: 34.5%
2017 SC: 26.8%

Steals:
2020 Oregon: 8.7 per game
2018 ND: 8.2 per game
2017 SC: 8.5 per game

Rebound Margin:
2020 Oregon: 9.8 per game
2018 ND: 8.2 per game
2017 SC: 6.3 per game

Defensive Rebound Margin
2020 Oregon: 7.6 per game
2018 ND: 6.8 per game
2017 SC: 6.5 per game

So there you go. There are 2 recent champions that had worse rebounding and comparable or worse defense to Oregon who've won titles recently.

SC and ND still ranked in the top 40 despite those numbers. Oregon isn’t.

 

[SCspur]

Sad thing the game will never be played, but it’s a good thing the programs have a possible matchup next year in the first annual Battle 4 Atlantis.

 

[domerduck]

None of what you said explained Oregon’s trouble defending or rebounding. ND wasn’t elite defensively but they were one of the best on the glass which was a big reason why they won in 2018. You’re basically insinuating Oregon’s ability to put the ball in hoop would would mask their inability to defend and rebound which would be false if they’re faced a team just as good offensively and better defensively. SC and Baylor both averaged north of 80 ppg this year and same for Oregon. But both of those squads were elite defensively as well. That to me is what puts teams on top. Defense and Rebounding. Look no further than the 2019 Baylor Lady Bears.... They faced two of the most elite offenses in the country in the FF that year in ND (with 5 1,000 point scorers in the lineup) and Oregon with Ionescu and co. Yet Baylor made both look pedestrian, and that was because of their relentless defense and ability to own the boards, something I thought Oregon lacked this year.

I watched every ND game that year since it is my alma mater. They weren't elite at rebounding, but good. Only 33rd in the country and even at rebounding margin (the stat bballnut touted where Oregon was 8th this past season), ND was only 20th in the country in 2018.

One stat they were strong at was shooting which they were +50% in field goal that year and in 2019 as was Baylor when they beat ND for the NC last year. In fact the only teams in the last 12 years who weren't top 3 in the country in team FG% and still won a championship were South Carolina in 2017 and Texas A&M in 2012, both shooting 47.5% or less. Maybe they could have won it this year with their 47% shooting, but the team that has usually won it all has shot 50% like ND, Baylor, & UConn often did when they won it all and Oregon (50.9%) & Baylor (50.1%) also did this year.

 

[bballnut90]

SC and ND still ranked in the top 40 despite those numbers. Oregon isn’t.

So if Oregon held opponents to 0.1 points per game fewer you'd consider them elite defensively since they'd technically be top 40?

 

[domerduck]

SC and ND still ranked in the top 40 despite those numbers. Oregon isn’t.

As I posted earlier ND also was 239th in scoring defense even if they were top 40 in rpg. Hard to say they were better than Oregon in Defense with those numbers.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Lol if you’re an Oregon fan just say so.... it’s makes no sense for you to be all worked up. Oregon didn’t play the teams SC faced and vice versa so not sure you can say Arkansas and Miss St scoring those high number of points matters considering both those teams were top 12 in ppg while Alabama was also top 50. The next closest school in ppg in the PAC-12 to compare was Stanford at 33. Which is pretty pathetic considering the PAC is was “strong” and the “best conference”.

Well...the last placed team in the Pac 12 beat Arkansas and nearly beat Kentucky, so there's that. Kinda set yourself up for that one.

 

[willtalk]

Wow! A South C. fan has to get all pushed out of shape because Stewart ( who has no dog in the fight ) said that she thought Oregon would win the Nattie. Well, she is not the only one. the majority of fans expressing an opinion did. Sabrina, unlike coach Staley didn't volunteer or bring it up; but just agreed with Stewart. The only ones that are bringing up that they would have won are the SC fans. Oh and their coach. You should be embarrassed.


I always tell people that those that bring up; and use stats to validate their sports agenda do so because they have nothing else. Basketball is a sport where stats mean the least because it had the biggest " on any given day factor" along with the most variables that can impact a game.

 

[jumpstart]

This article is no more than a "He said, she said" and isn't settling anything about who would have won. There are many, many games in all sports where the best team statistically lost. There are many games where the favorite got beat....This is just an idiotic attempt at settling something in the worse way...a subjective one. The games didn't happen and it could have been two teams (unlikely but possible) that are not even mentioned playing for a national title. It's arrogant to say it would have even been Oregon/South Carolina. It could have been a UCONN/Baylor final...or any other two teams that got hot at the right moment.

 

[nwhoopfan]

So there you go. There are 2 recent champions that had worse rebounding and comparable or worse defense to Oregon who've won titles recently.

Someone once told me stats don't lie...and then moved the goal posts again to stubbornly stick to their point.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Interesting stat choices. In 2018 Notre Dame won the championship being 239th in scoring defense. They scored a lot. What I believe is far more important was scoring margin where they were 9th at 17.3.

As for 2020, Oregon was 2nd in scoring margin in 2020 at 28.1, only behind Baylor who was 30.2. Both were ahead of SC at 25.9. Considering both the PAC12 (#1) and Big12 (#3) were considered tougher conferences than the SEC (#4), those were not small feats. Still SC (#3) and Oregon (#4) both played tougher overall schedules than Baylor (#35 in SOS). All 3 were great teams.

As for RPG, that has more to do with how many shots you miss which increase offensive rebound opportunitities. Oregon was #1 in the country in Field Goal % at 50.9 while SC was 47%. Baylor was the only other team in the country with over 50% shooting at 50.1.

I would say all 3 were teams that could win it all and it's too bad they couldn't play the NCAA tourney. SC lost 1 less game than Oregon and Baylor. Oregon beat Team USA which was no small feat. All three beat UConn, Oregon with a record 18 point win in Storrs, Baylor with a 16 point win in Hartford, and SC with an 18 point win in front of 18,000 in Columbia. . SC & Oregon won their conference tourneys so they were both on winning streaks, while Baylor missed out on playing their tourney so they ended the season with that 1 pt loss at ISU.

I think the two best were Oregon and South Carolina.

I understand why Oregon was considered the team to beat. Conventional wisdom says pick the more experienced team with the most celebrated players that came the closest the year before over the younger group.

I do think South Carolina would have beaten them though. I think that was Dawn's best team.

 

[domerduck]

I think the two best were Oregon and South Carolina.

I understand why Oregon was considered the team to beat. Conventional wisdom says pick the more experienced team with the most celebrated players that came the closest the year before over the younger group.

I do think South Carolina would have beaten them though. I think that was Dawn's best team.

Glad we both like our teams. The funny thing is when SC won in 2017, they weren't the best team (though they had the best player in Aja) and when my other alma mater ND won in 2018, they weren't the best team, but they had the most clutch player in Arike. On all objective measures UConn was the best team both years. They beat our teams, the eventual champ, convicingly in the regular season and went undefeated #1 ranked all the way to the final 4, only to lose their only game on a last second shot in that semifinal. If the ball had bounced differently and UConn was in the NC game, they would have been favored over both teams as Geno & Uconn has never lost that game, going 11-0. Not to be and our teams got the big prize, both over Miss State.

Maybe this year would have been UConn's time to get the lucky bounces that SC, ND, and Baylor got the last 3 years. Still it's nice to know UConn's best player who won 4 NCs thought the Ducks were going to win. It's hard to argue with a winner like her. Still "Unfinished Business" for all the contenders.

 

[willtalk]

Domerduck makes some very good points in how the best team does not always win. A lot depends on teams getting some breaks and facing the right matchups. I was at the Stockton 2017 regional and SC got a few breaks ( from favorable calls to a better matchup ) to even make it to the final four. They were gifted with quite a few questionable-to bad calls that helped them during key possessions at the end.

I must say that I strongly doubt that UConn had the type of team that could have taken advantage of the right amount of breaks to gain an upset NCAA championship. To do that you need to get the right matchups and have some other teams upset some of the favorites. Along with that, you need a player who when hot the other team's defense can not stop. That is what UConn was lacking. Every one of their players could be shut down with a good defender focused on stopping them.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I haven't seen the 2017 FSU game in a long while, but USC lead comfortably for most of 4th Q (double digits at times) before FSU got as close as 3, briefly.

 

[bballnut90]

Glad we both like our teams. The funny thing is when SC won in 2017, they weren't the best team (though they had the best player in Aja) and when my other alma mater ND won in 2018, they weren't the best team, but they had the most clutch player in Arike. On all objective measures UConn was the best team both years. They beat our teams, the eventual champ, convicingly in the regular season and went undefeated #1 ranked all the way to the final 4, only to lose their only game on a last second shot in that semifinal. If the ball had bounced differently and UConn was in the NC game, they would have been favored over both teams as Geno & Uconn has never lost that game, going 11-0. Not to be and our teams got the big prize, both over Miss State.

Maybe this year would have been UConn's time to get the lucky bounces that SC, ND, and Baylor got the last 3 years. Still it's nice to know UConn's best player who won 4 NCs thought the Ducks were going to win. It's hard to argue with a winner like her. Still "Unfinished Business" for all the contenders.

I agree with 2017 that UCONN was the clear cut top dog all year but dont agree with the 2018 proclamation.

In 2017 UCONN played a flukey bad game vs Mississippi State. The Bulldogs came ready to play and made some big plays down the stretch and weren't scared. It was an abnormally bad game for the Huskies, who had UCONN handily beat SC in the regular season (led by double figures the entire 4th), and handily beat #1 Notre Dame by 11 on the road. Mississippi State honestly wasn't that good of a team that year and had no business beating Baylor and UCONN.

On the flip side, the top 4 teams were all very much on par with each other by the end of 2018. 3 buzzer beater finishes from teams all playing solid basketball proves that. 2018 UCONN didnt convincingly beat Notre Dame in the regular season. Notre Dame led the majority of the game and had an 8 point lead going into the 4th before UCONN went on a tear at home. Notre Dame proved they could hang with the Huskies in the regular season. In the Final Four, UCONN played a solid game....Notre Dame just beat them in a close game. Wasn't anything flukey about that night.

And all 3 FF games were separated by a buzzer beater. By the end of the year these were the clear 4 best teams. 3 throttled their opponents in the regional final and the 4th, Notre Dame, won by double figures despite getting a scare midway through the 4th on the road against Oregon.

 

[Mdoggie]

Alls I can say is I thought Titus was gonna beat Douglas. Nothing is written in stone. Games have to be played. Who knows if the Ducks would’ve even made the finals? I sure don’t.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I'm probably happier to have a national title, but I am curious what UConn-SC would have looked like with S.C. spreading the floor more.

Not that I'm a big proponent of Coates getting hurt helping the team. It's not like South Carolina struggled with her. It just would have been different and I think that might have been a better way to play UConn...maybe.

 

[bballnut90]

I'm probably happier to have a national title, but I am curious what UConn-SC would have looked like with S.C. spreading the floor more.

Not that I'm a big proponent of Coates getting hurt helping the team. It's not like South Carolina struggled with her. It just would have been different and I think that might have been a better way to play UConn...maybe.

I think a lot of it ultimately wouldve come down to Kaela Davis/Alisha Gray and if they could produce. Both played poorly in the first UCONN game and were non-factors but were fantastic in the NCAAs. A'ja didn't play great in the regular season game but likely puts up a better performance in the title game without Coates there and she was a warrior in the Final Four. That core trio determines if they can hang with the Huskies. UCONN still is the heavy favorite IMO if they put up a normal game but we'll never know.

The biggest missed opportunity of the tournament IMO was Notre Dame once Turner went down. UCONN had been their kryptonite the last several years and they had a path to the title without facing the Huskies. With Turner I think they beat Stanford and have a huge battle vs. SC who they were very comparable with that year. ND would beat Mississippi State in the title game IMO with a healthy Turner. In the end it worked out well for both programs, as SC won it all in 2017 and ND came through the next year.

 

[willtalk]

I haven't seen the 2017 FSU game in a long while, but USC lead comfortably for most of 4th Q (double digits at times) before FSU got as close as 3, briefly.

It was precisely when they got the closest that a series of very bad calls went against FS. Those changed not only the momentum but the completion of the game because FS was forced to foul. Which is what decided the final score. It was much closer than the score indicated. As I said I had no dog in the fight so my perspective was rather objective.

I am not saying that SC did not play well enough to win the Nattie, just that they got quite a few breaks along the way. In fact, there are quite a few teams that needed breaks to win their Nattie's. Most teams just are not that much better than the field that they can win without some help. What I do see is a coach and a fan base that has gone over the top with their evaluations of their own teams. I mean building a statue of a player just because she was instrumental in winning one Championship. That says quite a bit. If UConn or perhaps Tenn did that they wouldn't have enough space for the statues. Modesty always sits well.

 

[visitingcock]

. . .

Most teams just are not that much better than the field that they can win without some help. What I do see is a coach and a fan base that has gone over the top with their evaluations of their own teams. I mean building a statue of a player just because she was instrumental in winning one Championship. That says quite a bit. If UConn or perhaps Tenn did that they wouldn't have enough space for the statues. Modesty always sits well.

We are PROUDLY, a fanbase that is always over the top. It's who we are. That's why we cram fans in to see a now-abysmal football program and a fallen baseball power as well as a rising WBB program.

It's a shame that all WBB fans missed an opportunity to see 5 top 10 draft choices and the Frosh of the Year /1st Team AA get to settle it on the court - but it will be an argument that will continue as long as these six players (and others tbd) continue to play the game. (not that either team was guaranteed to make the finals)

Will SCar be a dominant power next year? We'll see. Lot's of young talent remains, but Kiki and Tyasha were the glue that held the four freshmen together and their leadership will be missed. But, the fans will be there.