interesting take on recruiting

[Drew]

http://www.omaha.com/article/201402...recruiting-classes-it-s-quality-over-quantity

 

[Chin Diesel]

He hits the nail on the head with this.

But in recruiting, it's not really about how many signees become starters or contributors — you can always plug a hole down the road. Success is primarily determined by the ceiling of your best guys (needless to say, player development is critical).

You start winning big when you string together consecutive classes with four or five difference-makers.

You have 22 starters on offense and defense and about another 5-6 on each side of the ball that substitute in regularly. On the field there's only about 35 players who have to contribute. And only about 4-5 are difference makers on offense and defense.

Depth is needed for practices and game day prep to be as good as possible, but if you can get five difference makers out of each class, you will be successful. In this class I really like Oak, Diggs, Carrezola, Watkins and Johnson. I may be a different five that step up, but I think UConn has enough play makers in this class.

 

[Wonkster]

.
Illuminating stuff. Thanks for posting this article, Drew!

 

[ZooCougar]

Just another reason to not pay too much attention to recruiting.

 

[#1 PA Husky Fan]

He hits the nail on the head with this.

But in recruiting, it's not really about how many signees become starters or contributors — you can always plug a hole down the road. Success is primarily determined by the ceiling of your best guys (needless to say, player development is critical).

You start winning big when you string together consecutive classes with four or five difference-makers.

You have 22 starters on offense and defense and about another 5-6 on each side of the ball that substitute in regularly. On the field there's only about 35 players who have to contribute. And only about 4-5 are difference makers on offense and defense.

Depth is needed for practices and game day prep to be as good as possible, but if you can get five difference makers out of each class, you will be successful. In this class I really like Oak, Diggs, Carrezola, Watkins and Johnson. I may be a different five that step up, but I think UConn has enough play makers in this class.

I would add Arkell Newsome to the list of difference makers. Lemming has him as 4+ rated recruit, and he rushed for 10,000+ yards in high school.

 

[Husky25]

Just another reason to not pay too much attention to recruiting sites.

There. That's better.

For the most part, we know a recruits measurable: Height, weight, stats vs. opponents, but regardless of where a recruit plays, not everyone on the opposition is looking to play at a Div.1 level. No one knows how a recruit is going to perform until they are playing amongst their new peers.

 

[ZooCougar]

There. That's better.

For the most part, we know a recruits measurable: Height, weight, stats vs. opponents, but regardless of where a recruit plays, not everyone on the opposition is looking to play at a Div.1 level. No one knows how a recruit is going to perform until they are playing amongst their new peers.

Nah, I still like my comment better.

 

[johnhuskies95]

This board has such a ridiculous take on recruiting. Do guys fly under the radar sometimes? Of course. Can highly ranked recruits be overrated sometimes? Of course.

But, the teams with the best players still win. Alabama's had the number 1 ranked class in the country 5 out of the last 6 years and they've won 3 national championships and been to two other BCS bowls in that same time frame. It's not a difficult concept.

 

[UCFBfan]

This board has such a ridiculous take on recruiting. Do guys fly under the radar sometimes? Of course. Can highly ranked recruits be overrated sometimes? Of course.

But, the teams with the best players still win. Alabama's had the number 1 ranked class in the country 5 out of the last 6 years and they've won 3 national championships and been to two other BCS bowls in that same time frame. It's not a difficult concept.

It's not the 5 star players that we're talking about. How many times has UConn been lower than Rutgers or USF in recruiting? Probably almost every year. Yet we seem to have little difficulty hanging tough and losing close games or beating them every single year. With football, it's not the upper tier recruits we're discussing. When it comes to the majority of recruits, stars mean nothing. No one here is claiming we will ever be competing with the Alabama's of the world in the near future. So to dream that UConn is going to land a class like the top 25 programs anytime in the future is dumb. However, it's not unreasonable to believe that classes 40-100 are usually full of crapshoots.

 

[whaler11]

This board has such a ridiculous take on recruiting. Do guys fly under the radar sometimes? Of course. Can highly ranked recruits be overrated sometimes? Of course.

But, the teams with the best players still win. Alabama's had the number 1 ranked class in the country 5 out of the last 6 years and they've won 3 national championships and been to two other BCS bowls in that same time frame. It's not a difficult concept.

It's a bit of a self fullfilling prophesy. The recruits that get highly rated are those recruited by the Alabamas. Since none of the sites actually evaluate talent it's very easy for them to back into the rankings at the top. Once you get into the hundreds of players only a coach could evaluate properly they just promote the ones who engage with their sites and assume the rest are the same.

So sure they probably are right about most of the top 15 classes this season. I could have come up with a similar ranking without so much as logging into the internet.

If you think any of them can give you the realtive quality of say Wake's class against say Tulsa's class.... Well that's just silly. They don't generate enough revenue to employ the quality or quantity of people needed to do that even remotely successfully.

Jesus look at any NFL draft 5 years later... Professionals with nearly unlimited resources and an extra 3-4 years of data to use, sure do miss a lot in the first round and end up with some stars late or undrafted.

 

[noeynox]

This board has such a ridiculous take on recruiting. Do guys fly under the radar sometimes? Of course. Can highly ranked recruits be overrated sometimes? Of course.

But, the teams with the best players still win. Alabama's had the number 1 ranked class in the country 5 out of the last 6 years and they've won 3 national championships and been to two other BCS bowls in that same time frame. It's not a difficult concept.

I don't know how long you've been following recruiting with the sites, but if you have been for a decade or so you notice a trend. UConn was recruiting a LB out of Georgia, Akeem Dent, who took an official visit here. He was a two star prospect with an impressive highlight film and it was already late in the process. Georgia offered and he committed. He was "re evaluated" and deemed a four star prospect. Its funny business at worst, at best its like Whaler is saying, just not enough people to watch film and evaluate every player. Ron Brace looked like he was headed to UConn, BC offers late, he commits and becomes a three star. I got into a back and forth years ago about Donald Brown with Mike Farrell. DB was a three star prospect and it was rumored he was headed to either Nebraska or Iowa. He commits to UConn as a RB and is downgraded to two stars. I ask Farrell about this on the Rivals main board. He responds DB had early offers from Nebraska, Iowa and others as defensive back. He is eventually moved back up to a three star. I enjoy recruiting season. Like following it and would like to see us get highly ranked recruiting classes. But there is a reason we have like 21 players in the NFL. That is a lot of two star recruits to be ranked. I would like to know how many the teams in near our ranking have put in the NFL. I always remember Zach Frazer being ranked ahead of Sam Bradford. I'm sure that was based on offers and the fact that Frazer was committed to Notre Dame, because I can't believe someone actually watched, evaluated both guys and determined Frazer was better based on throwing mechanics alone.

If you can convince every member of this site to pay to sign up for one of the recruiting sites and you will see our rankings get better.

 

[Palatine]

Not random my guess for the 50% (7) contributors are Newsome, Oak, Hashemi, Diggs, Rodick, Bloom, Watkins.

 

[HartfordHank]

Ron Brace looked like he was headed to UConn, BC offers late, he commits and becomes a three star.

Ron Brace was never close to committing to UConn. He also had a BC offer before he had a UConn offer.

He was the first D1 recruit for Burncoat HS in their history. He had a coach who was totally in the dark when it came to recruiting and assisting a player in marketing his services. If he had been at a school with a hint of how to market him, he would have been more highly rated earlier and had many more offers.

 

[noeynox]

Ron Brace was never close to committing to UConn. He also had a BC offer before he had a UConn offer.

He was the first D1 recruit for Burncoat HS in their history. He had a coach who was totally in the dark when it came to recruiting and assisting a player in marketing his services. If he had been at a school with a hint of how to market him, he would have been more highly rated earlier and had many more offers.

Doubt your accurate here. He was on the fence between UConn and Syracuse before BC offered and he accepted.

 

[noeynox]

The article below is from late in the recruiting season from after BC had offered. I'm sure I could find articles where he was on the fence between Cuse and UConn. Note in that article he was two star recruit. A commit to a particular school and voila, a third star magically appeared. I have followed recruiting on the pays sites for too long I'm afraid to admit. There are countless examples I could site with just kids UConn was involved with. The Donald Brown downgrade sealed it for me as far as not taking the sites seriously. It is 100% BS past the top 250 kids or so. After Brace committed he ended up a "high three star, 5.7 rating". Did he deserve that rating? Yeah he did, probably all along. Had he committed to UConn I doubt he gets upgraded.

January 11, 2004

Leader fading for Ron Brace?

Worcester (Ma.) Burncoat offensive guard Ron Brace (6-foot-4, 310 pounds, 5.0) took a visit to Hofstra this weekend. Brace, a two-star prospect, has four visits remaining. One school is starting to fade in the eyes of Brace. Do it have anything to do with his visit to Hofstra this weekend?

"Boston College is starting to fade some. I didn't know that they are recruiting me as an offensive lineman until recently. I feel I am a better defensive player so that hurts them."

Hofstra is recruiting Brace as a defensive tackle and he is excited about their program.

"I love playing defense. Massachusetts, Connecticut, Hofstra, and Northeastern all want me for defense. Hofstra is changing from a 3-4 to a 4-3 defense. The coaches told me how important I am to their class because they need defensive lineman."

Brace said that his trip to Hofstra went great.

"I loved it there. Hofstra is a good school with a nice balance of academics and a good scial scene. The coaches were great and I really liked the students and the players there. I really don't have a leader but Hofstra is up there."

Brace has two official visits this week, he visits Northeastern on Jan. 15 and Boston College on Jan. 16. He finishes his official visits up with trips to Connecticut on Jan. 23 and Massachusetts on Jan. 30. Does Ron plan on taking all five visits?

"That is my plan, but I guess we'll have to see."

 

[HartfordHank]

Doubt your accurate here. He was on the fence between UConn and Syracuse before BC offered and he accepted.

I have known Ron since he was in eighth grade. One daughter was in his class and my other daughter was in the same Magnet with him and also threw shot put with Ron on the track team. At one time I called BC to be sure I didn't do anything to compromise his recruitment. But I am sure you know more than I do, not!

BC had Ron targeted as an offensive guard and UConn was looking to use him on defense. He commented on that and BC said they would be happy with him on defense and he committed.

 

[noeynox]

Okay, he was still a two star very late in the process. Then magically elevated to high three star with offers from UMass, UConn, and Hofstra but whatever. He is an example on the shenanigans of the recruiting rankings. There are many.

 

[HartfordHank]

Okay, he was still a two star very late in the process. Then magically elevated to high three star with offers from UMass, UConn, and Hofstra but whatever. He is an example on the shenanigans of the recruiting rankings. There are many.

Or the adjustments was the correct thing to do. He went on to be all ACC and was drafted early in the second round of the draft.

 

[johnhuskies95]

It's a bit of a self fullfilling prophesy. The recruits that get highly rated are those recruited by the Alabamas. Since none of the sites actually evaluate talent it's very easy for them to back into the rankings at the top. Once you get into the hundreds of players only a coach could evaluate properly they just promote the ones who engage with their sites and assume the rest are the same.

So sure they probably are right about most of the top 15 classes this season. I could have come up with a similar ranking without so much as logging into the internet.

If you think any of them can give you the realtive quality of say Wake's class against say Tulsa's class.... Well that's just silly. They don't generate enough revenue to employ the quality or quantity of people needed to do that even remotely successfully.

Jesus look at any NFL draft 5 years later... Professionals with nearly unlimited resources and an extra 3-4 years of data to use, sure do miss a lot in the first round and end up with some stars late or undrafted.

The recruits that get highly rated are the ones that are the best players. There's a reason that one in every six 5 stars ends up being a first round pick. They just happen to be the best players. The data has shown that the highly ranked guys (4 and 5 stars) get drafted and produce at the college level at a much higher level than 2 and 3 stars.

You can make an argument about the parity of lower level classes, but at the same time the top two teams in the AAC this year both had very highly ranked classes for their upperclassmen.

People always point to Rutgers when bringing up recruiting rankings on this board, but I think they're an outlier more than anything.

 

[noeynox]

Or the adjustments was the correct thing to do. He went on to be all ACC and was drafted early in the second round of the draft.

Does he get the adjustment if he commits to UConn? Tyvon Branch, Darius Butler, Kendall Reyes, Cody Brown, Will Beatty, all went on to have very good college careers and get drafted fairly high. Which one got the bump or "adjustment"?

 

[HartfordHank]

Does he get the adjustment if he commits to UConn? Tyvon Branch, Darius Butler, Kendall Reyes, Cody Brown, Will Beatty, all went on to have very good college careers and get drafted fairly high. Which one got the bump or "adjustment"?

I'm sorry you are right, he world is conspiring against UConn!

 

[noeynox]

I'm sorry you are right, he world is conspiring against UConn!

I knew you'd see the light. It isn't about conspiring. It is about commits getting bumped after they commit. Sorry you can't see that. I can't think of a single kid who was ever bumped as a result of comitting to UConn.

 

[uconnbill]

I'm sorry you are right, he world is conspiring against UConn!

The truth is that Mike Farrell has owned a part of the BC Eagles Rivals site for a number of years and it is in his best interest to rate some players higher to keep the subscribers happy. I know this from my time as the site administrator on rivals and what I had to go though for UCONN commits to get their film looked at even.

 

[Colt house75]

As an aside, recent article on Alabama recruiting from AJ McCarron:

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsport...s-alabamas-failures-on-alabamas-past-success/

Seems that even at an Alabama, there appears a malady of discontent with recruiting services and the ratings.
from the article above:
"but his more recent comments may shed some more truth than anything McCarron has said before. McCarron also took swipes at various recruiting services, who McCarron labeled as guys who never played football. “You have guys who have never played the game of football rating these guys that they are a 5-star, because they’re sitting behind a computer screen watching their highlight film. Well, their highlight film is supposed to be good, the last time I checked. That’s the kind of thing that ticks me off about recruiting and when these kids come in, and they’re 5-stars and they expect to play right off the bat. It’s a little entitlement and when they don’t play off the bat, they get a little ticked off and they don’t want to work.”

So, several points, IMO -
1) AJ.....you're pants didn't get dirty too often in the last 4 years-
2) AJ- If they don't work, they don't play-that's why coaches are successful and Alabama is fortunate enough to be sitting with 4 deep at every position.

BUT ON POINT:
3) the need for successful evaluation of talent before it gets to any campus is prevalent even at an Alabama regardless of the rating services.

 

[whaler11]

The recruits that get highly rated are the ones that are the best players. There's a reason that one in every six 5 stars ends up being a first round pick. They just happen to be the best players. The data has shown that the highly ranked guys (4 and 5 stars) get drafted and produce at the college level at a much higher level than 2 and 3 stars.

You can make an argument about the parity of lower level classes, but at the same time the top two teams in the AAC this year both had very highly ranked classes for their upperclassmen.

People always point to Rutgers when bringing up recruiting rankings on this board, but I think they're an outlier more than anything.

Well then may as well cancel the season, Rivals already told us who wins. Why bother to play the games.