Interesting Article Speculates on Several Realignment Options

[Nostical]

Five scenarios for the future of college conference realignment

On the likelihood of changes coming to the college football neighborhood.

theathletic.com

One option that's explored is more of the schools going Independent, encouraged by new rights bidders such as Amazon and Netflix. For example, David Carter, executive director of the USC Sports Business Institute states: “What might happen is something new.” Right now you’re trying to broker entire conferences,” he said. “If you took away that business model, maybe Amazon might want to do USC and Boise State, but they say no to Colorado State. Maybe it’s, people who subscribe to Netflix are in the Southwest, so we only want USC, UCLA, San Diego State and the Arizona schools. Or they may say, we’ve had trouble penetrating the Northeast, so we just want Syracuse and UConn.”

Another issue was trying to measure the value of various G-5's as compared to some P-5's based on alumni and social media status:

 

[Pudge]

This implies WE (UConn) are Worth watching

You have to begin with that - UConn Football following MBB & WBB etc can be something eyeballs will search for.

Anyway. Econ 101. Cartels will cheat. To me, that begins with a Texas or a USC or a UNC breaking out of Conference mode to grab dollars far beyond the strict Power 5. And of course you see that.

Then. Netflix & Amazon Prime gives you ample evidence that distribution of Sports can be far beyond the constraints & control of ESPN. The simple Production Component pushed down to the University is clearly a good narrative of where this could go. Solid game professionalism can distinguish viewing from the dirty unwashed. SNY performing that task is interesting.

What’s unnerving? Contracts that go out 13 years. At Flat revenue. With no holes and significant buyout for Exit.

See. We are doing alright there.

 

[Guapo]

Five scenarios for the future of college conference realignment

On the likelihood of changes coming to the college football neighborhood.

theathletic.com

One option that's explored is more of the schools going Independent, encouraged by new rights bidders such as Amazon and Netflix. For example, David Carter, executive director of the USC Sports Business Institute states: “What might happen is something new.” Right now you’re trying to broker entire conferences,” he said. “If you took away that business model, maybe Amazon might want to do USC and Boise State, but they say no to Colorado State. Maybe it’s, people who subscribe to Netflix are in the Southwest, so we only want USC, UCLA, San Diego State and the Arizona schools. Or they may say, we’ve had trouble penetrating the Northeast, so we just want Syracuse and UConn.”

Another issue was trying to measure the value of various G-5's as compared to some P-5's based on alumni and social media status:
View attachment 45084

I think there is a possibility that more schools will go independent in the future.

Having said that, these charts are almost hilariously meaningless lol

 

[Adios]

We're going to end up FCS!1!11!!1!1!1!!+@1

 

[Austin316]

If Amazon and Netflix joined in on collegiate network landscape.... hell yes. I think they would do a great job with marketing programs and favoring your “teams” so you know what’s playing right now. They are very much geared towards consumer interest unlike larger networks that go by what’s going on in a specific conference. I like the idea.

 

[Adios]

The NESCAC streams their own games, using students and faculty for production.

Low budget but kinda cool.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I tend to agree that the current model isn't sustainable.

Why are Ohio State and Michigan subsidizing Rutgers? Why are Florida State and Clemson subsidizing Wake?

I think you'll eventually see a super conference of the top P5 schools that is NFL-Lite (32 teams) or the top schools break off into Independence or form a loose affiliation of regional schools (what a concept).

 

[whaler11]

I tend to agree that the current model isn't sustainable.

Why are Ohio State and Michigan subsidizing Rutgers? Why are Florida State and Clemson subsidizing Wake?

I think you'll eventually see a super conference of the top P5 schools that is NFL-Lite (32 teams) or the top schools break off into Independence or form a loose affiliation of regional schools (what a concept).

I’ll believe Netflix gets involved when I see it - but clearly when revenues flatline it’s Vandys and Wakes going overboard.

 

[Guapo]

I tend to agree that the current model isn't sustainable.

Why are Ohio State and Michigan subsidizing Rutgers? Why are Florida State and Clemson subsidizing Wake?

I think you'll eventually see a super conference of the top P5 schools that is NFL-Lite (32 teams) or the top schools break off into Independence or form a loose affiliation of regional schools (what a concept).

It won’t work quite that way.

Ohio State and Michigan will never leave the Big 10. What’s more likely to happen is the Big 10 would jettison a school like Rutgers or the ACC will kick out Louisville or someone (but as I’ve mentioned here before, the ACC will never do anything to harm Wake). In addition, you might see high end teams with out deep, historic ties to a conference (I’m looking at schools like FSU and Texas) maybe considering independence.

But yeah, kinda like you said, I think what we’ll eventually see is what the landscape was like in the old days. Smaller conferences, some independent behemoths. The more things change the more they stay the same.

 

[Guapo]

I’ll believe Netflix gets involved when I see it - but clearly when revenues flatline it’s Vandys and Wakes going overboard.

Nope.

Schools like Arkansas and Pitt are far more likely to be kicked out of the SEC and ACC than Vandy or Wake.

 

[whaler11]

Nope.

Schools like Arkansas and Pitt are far more likely to be kicked out of the SEC and ACC than Vandy or Wake.

note the s. im just talking dead weight.

 

[Chief00]

UCF is a potential monster.

 

[Guapo]

note the s. im just talking dead weight.

Right. So what you said combined with what @ConnHuskBask said I think, as traditional cable money dries up, and there’s a move to streaming subscription services we’ll begin to see the break up of these large, spread out, conferences that were created to capitalize on cable boxes and a retreat to the more traditional conference model.

To me, when you factor in the politics and various costs involved, that is a far more likely outcome than the top however many teams breaking away from the NCAA and forming their own super league.

 

[whaler11]

Right. So what you said combined with what @ConnHuskBask said I think, as traditional cable money dries up, and there’s a move to streaming subscription services we’ll begin to see the break up of these large, spread out, conferences that were created to capitalize on cable boxes and a retreat to the more traditional conference model.

To me, when you factor in the politics and various costs involved, that is a far more likely outcome than the top however many teams breaking away from the NCAA and forming their own super league.

I don’t see a super league either. They need a model where they still go 9-3 in a bad year.

 

[Pudge]

There’s not going to be Conferences kicking out Wake or Vandy or Rutgers

What we see ... some University is more mercenaries than other (ahem Notre Dame to start that conversation). Texas. USC. Some with leverage are gonna be sleepy — until they see major peers swimming in new deals and opportunities. There’s about 10-15 that have far better Opportunity Set than others.

G5? Look. You’re not going to be able to hold a UCF or Houston down if they keep developing & Winning & being attractive. Sure 13 year flat contract. But it ain’t that much money ... thus the buyout is reasonably acceptable.

The point of the article ... Change. Things will not remain ESPN controlled Cable. There’s just more technology options available; there are more ways for those with leverage to optimize.

 

[Guapo]

I don’t see a super league either. They need a model where they still go 9-3 in a bad year.

They also need a model that’s not going to threaten any of the various legal loopholes or trust statuses they have

 

[WrenchFan69]

The NESCAC streams their own games, using students and faculty for production.

Low budget but kinda cool.

The NESCAC has a deal with NSNSports to stream their games. Sometimes they utilize students/faculty to self-stream, but for most of the schools most of the time, NSN provides a producer and commentator. Tufts is the only school that is entirely in-house. It's very low budget but in a kind of endearing way

 

[Nostical]

These new potential paradigm shifts actually favor our recent decision to leave the AAC. While our non-football sports have a new home in the BE (with FOX) , retaining our media rights to football gives us some flexibility as an independent to make deals with the Amazon’s and Netflix’s of the world. So can we rekindle football? I say we can. I went to several UConn games at UCF before Scott Frost. It was an empty, lifeless stadium. Things change. This could be the year we look back on someday as the beginning of our re-ascent to relevance.

 

[Fairfield_1st]

Things change. This could be the year we look back on someday as the beginning of our re-ascent to relevance.

I like the optimism and it's an interesting idea.

 

[SubbaBub]

Marketable schools will recover the media rights to their own home games and form scheduling alliances with other power schools to create Bowl/ Conf championship level games during the season. The lesser schools will go along with it to keep their own home games with these schools for them to sell.

Media contracts will become a la carte. Michigan, for example, will make a deal to sell X number of games to outlet Y over so many years with a dictated number against a list of outlet preferred opponents.

As long as there is a playoff and bowl games, the conferences will exist.

 

[whaler11]

These new potential paradigm shifts actually favor our recent decision to leave the AAC. While our non-football sports have a new home in the BE (with FOX) , retaining our media rights to football gives us some flexibility as an independent to make deals with the Amazon’s and Netflix’s of the world. So can we rekindle football? I say we can. I went to several UConn games at UCF before Scott Frost. It was an empty, lifeless stadium. Things change. This could be the year we look back on someday as the beginning of our re-ascent to relevance.

Lol sure.

 

[billybud]

Folks will watch brand programs, matches between ranked teams, matches that will impact the conference championship.

The transmission method, streaming, cable, etc won't change that dynamic.

 

[AndOne]

That social media following chart is so worthless. Probably from the same people who did the UCF report where they inferred each tweet about UCF has $50 in marketing value.

 

[Hoophound]

This is actually what many people say will happen, namely, young people. The problem for UConn remains the same. You have to maintain and/or grow the fan base either way. You can’t assume that in 5-10 years we’ll have the same amount of fans. We have to succeed to maintain or grow. We need to win for the value to be there. Winning is, and will continue to be, critical.

 

[Hoophound]

UCF is a turd. Their fan base is the biggest band wagon garbage ever. I meet more people leaving UCF due to the Orlando traffic or lack of community as I meet that are going or staying. It is a POS environment.