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Message: [QUOTE="mikedog10, post: 3493279, member: 4618"] Devil's advocate: It's also possible that flattening the epidemic curve delays acquired immunity, resulting in a worse second wave than we're seeing now... this is one of the reasons that the Spanish Flu was much worse in 1918 than it was in 1917. China was much less effected by the second wave, as the Spanish Flu had originated there and folks had more acquired immunity. ("Spanish flu" is due to WW1 morale-censors downplaying the impact in many countries; neutral Spain honestly reported their experience and was perceived to be hit hardest at the time). Coronavirus also has a higher basic reproduction number in colder/drier weather, indicating the possibility of a seasonal resurgence later in the year. Human mobility is a natural vaccination; isolated populations are most at-risk during pandemics (i.e., Native Americans in the 16th century. Most of the countries hit hardest by swine flu in 2009 were island nations). Right now, Sweden is the only European country not closing their borders/shutting everything down... they also seem to be doing a better job containing the disease by tracking individual cases and encouraging personal responsibility without mandated shutdowns. To be fair, Swedes stereotypically are more practiced in "social distancing" than many other cultures. However this all plays out, it's going to make a fascinating case study one day. [/QUOTE]