Inter-conference records among the majors

[nelsonmuntz]

There has been a lot of criticism of the Big East, including quite a few on this board comparing the league to a mid-major, so I put together this analysis

Below are the interconference records between the leagues (Updated for all games).

	ACC​	Big East​	Big 10​	Big 12​	SEC​
ACC		5-4​	3-10​	15-11​	16-13​
Big East	4-5​		10-7​	7-7​	7-3​
Big 10	10-3​	7-10​		8-8​	6-10​
Big 12	11-15​	7-7​	8-8​		6-15​
SEC	13-16​	3-7​	10-6​	15-6​
Total	38-39​	22-28​	31-31​	45-32​	35-41​
Average Games vs. Majors	4.28​	4.55​	3.44​	4.81​	4.75​

I put this together using ChatGPT, which wasn't great at this kind of search, so I had to do a lot of manual adjustments and I may have missed a couple of games.

That data supports the Big East being ranked #5 out of the majors, but it doesn't really support the huge gap we are seeing between the leagues in KenPom and Torvik. I think the margin of victories and buy games early in the season are making a difference, along with the fact that KenPom has a big preseason projection in that model which remains a factor into January. The SEC's current +19 would be one of the strongest all time conference ratings on KenPom, which is odd for a conference that has a losing record against the other majors, and a large and growing collection of ugly losses. It is also strange that the Big 12 is not the #1 league in every ranking.

I would expect to see the Big East creep up in the computer ratings, cutting the gap between them and the higher ranked conferences, as their solid number of P5 games per team and games against mid-majors start to flow through strength of schedule of opponents, while a lot of the low-major blowouts by SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 schools will lose value as the season wears on. This should help UConn on the margin, as its conference strength of schedule improves over the course of the season. The underlying rating in all the computer models gets pretty tight once you get past the top 15 or so teams, so even a minor improvement in the second degree SOS can make a big difference in the ranking. I don't think we are going to bump a bunch of games into Quad 1's, but we should see more Quad 2's than it appears we have today, and I think 5 bids is a reasonable projection unless Butler face plants.

 

[shizzle787]

Records against the non-major conferences:

Big Ten: 103-7 (93.6%)
Big East: 61-6 (91.0%)
Big 12: 104-5 (95.4%)
ACC: 124-15 (89.2%)
SEC: 100-8 (92.6%)

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Records against the non-major conferences:

Big Ten: 103-7 (93.6%)
Big East: 61-6 (91.0%)
Big 12: 104-5 (95.4%)
ACC: 124-15 (89.2%)
SEC: 100-8 (92.6%)

Does that include Notre Dame’s loss to Purdue Fort Wayne?

 

[MJ1]

Does that include Notre Dame’s loss to Purdue Fort Wayne?

Good point, the ACC may have a better overall record but there conference has had some horrible losses this year, Syracuse, Pitt, Florida State, and ND. The Big East only had one real bad loss, Buffalo beating DePaul that I can recall.

 

[shizzle787]

Does that include Notre Dame’s loss to Purdue Fort Wayne?

No

 

[AllHusky]

Eyeballing it looks like we are plenty competitive across conferences
Like to see the AAC, MVC or P12 MWC against the P5 hoops conferences

 

[ecasadoSBU]

There has been a lot of criticism of the Big East, including quite a few on this board comparing the league to a mid-major, so I put together this analysis

Below are the interconference records between the leagues (This afternoon's Clemson/Cincinnati game not included).

	ACC​	Big East​	Big 10​	Big 12​	SEC​
ACC		5-4​	3-10​	15-10​	16-13​
Big East	4-5​		10-7​	7-7​	7-3​
Big 10	10-3​	7-10​		8-8​	6-9​
Big 12	10-15​	7-7​	8-8​		6-15​
SEC	13-16​	3-7​	9-6​	15-6​
Total	37-39​	22-28​	30-31​	45-31​	35-40​
Average Games vs. Majors	4.22​	4.55​	3.39​	4.75​	4.69​

I put this together using ChatGPT, which wasn't great at this kind of search, so I had to do a lot of manual adjustments and I may have missed a couple of games.

That data supports the Big East being ranked #5 out of the majors, but it doesn't really support the huge gap we are seeing between the leagues in KenPom and Torvik. I think the margin of victories and buy games early in the season are making a difference, along with the fact that KenPom has a big preseason projection in that model which remains a factor into January. The SEC's current +19 would be one of the strongest all time conference ratings on KenPom, which is odd for a conference that has a losing record against the other majors, and a large and growing collection of ugly losses. It is also strange that the Big 12 is not the #1 league in every ranking.

I would expect to see the Big East creep up in the computer ratings, cutting the gap between them and the higher ranked conferences, as their solid number of P5 games per team and games against mid-majors start to flow through strength of schedule of opponents, while a lot of the low-major blowouts by SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 schools will lose value as the season wears on. This should help UConn on the margin, as its conference strength of schedule improves over the course of the season. The underlying rating in all the computer models gets pretty tight once you get past the top 15 or so teams, so even a minor improvement in the second degree SOS can make a big difference in the ranking. I don't think we are going to bump a bunch of games into Quad 1's, but we should see more Quad 2's than it appears we have today, and I think 5 bids is a reasonable projection unless Butler face plants.

Thanks for this analysis @nelsonmuntz

It's always good to hit the Big East haters and "Big East is mid-major" with the cold hard facts.

The Big East is a solid major/power league. Yes, its currently the 5th best league. But 5th is still pretty solid and should get 4-5 bids

P.S: Really pissed with the Johnnies dropping yesterday's game against UK. The Johnnies have been a big disappointment so far. Seton Hall ITOH has been a pleasant surprise

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is one more P5 vs. P5 game, Illinois vs. Missouri, which is tonight. With the rest of the schedule pretty much locked in, we have a pretty good picture of how many teams each conference will get. No league is dominant enough this year that sub .500 teams in conference play will get a lot of leeway, so a good rule of thumb is: "how many teams from the league would get a bid with a .500 record in conference play?"

There are 37 at-large bids plus 5 conference champions = 42 bids.

Start with teams ranked 40 or higher in the NET:

SEC: 8 (Vanderbilt, Georgia, LSU, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky)
Big 12: 7 (Iowa State, Arizona, BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, UCF, Kansas)
Big 10: 9 (Nebraska, Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana, UCLA, USC, Iowa, Illinois)
ACC: 8 (Duke, UNC, Virginia, Miami, Louisville, SMU, Clemson, NC State)
Big East: 4 (UConn, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Villanova)

That is 36 bids that these conferences have a high confidence of getting as of Christmas. I could be off by 1, but something really weird would have to happen for any of the conferences above to be 2 off from my prediction above.

Some of the teams listed above won't make it, but they will likely get replaced by another team from the conference. For example, if Texas finishes with a winning record, it means that one of the SEC teams listed above had a losing record, and probably took itself out of a bid. Weird stuff can happen, like 2 years ago when Seton Hall was terrible OOC and finished with a winning record in league play, but those are exceptions.

Close: Auburn (43), Baylor (42), California (44), Butler (46), Ohio State (49)

Depending on how many mid-majors get bids, there are another 2-3 bids from among the "close" teams. Again, some of these may swap out if a Wisconsin or TCU does well in league play. .500 in league play puts these teams right on the bubble. The Big East has a slight advantage here because Butler is less exposed to the "marginal Zero Sum Game" problem, where as a conference stretches towards the middle of its standings, someone has to finish .500 or with a losing record. Butler is not really in the middle of the standings, and it also doesn't have a deep top of the league that gives a lot of teams in the league 4 or 6 automatic losses.

Others of note:

Gonzaga (5), Utah State (17), St. Louis (25), St. Mary's (24), Tulsa (41), Yale (45), McNeese (47), Boise (48)

Gonzaga is the only team on this list that is a lock to get a bid if it doesn't win its conference tournament because none of them other than Gonzaga have quality wins. For now, I am assuming that the mid-majors get 2 at-large bids, but that is a conservative assumption. Zero mid-major at-large bids is a real possibility.

 

[ecasadoSBU]

What I don't understand is why the conference is averaging less bids after UConn joined the league despite adding an additional elite member

I remember the league getting 5-7 bids routinely when it had 10 members from 2014-2020. The conference peaked at 7/10 bids in 2017 but it hasn't been able to get to that level. We have lost competitiveness since those days. I remember Xavier/Creighton/Villanova/Seton Hall/Providence being solid those days.

We need to get back to those days somehow

 

[John]

What I don't understand is why the conference is averaging less bids after UConn joined the league despite adding an additional elite member

I remember the league getting 5-7 bids routinely when it had 10 members from 2014-2020. The conference peaked at 7/10 bids in 2017 but it hasn't been able to get to that level. We have lost competitiveness since those days. I remember Xavier/Creighton/Villanova/Seton Hall/Providence being solid those days.

We need to get back to those days somehow

those schools sure were having a lot of fun before Daddy came home.

 

[Kolumbo]

The Big 12 is batting .584 and that includes going 1-2 to UConn. It just makes too much sense.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Big 12 is batting .584 and that includes going 1-2 to UConn. It just makes too much sense.

Why is it way behind the SEC in every rating system? The SEC has a losing record against the other majors, and doesn't play many mid-majors. They may have found a glitch.

 

[pj]

Why is it way behind the SEC in every rating system? The SEC has a losing record against the other majors, and doesn't play many mid-majors. They may have found a glitch.

Could it have something to do with the SEC going 15-6 against the Big12 so far this season?

 

[Kolumbo]

Could it have something to do with the SEC going 15-6 against the Big12 so far this season?

I think you are reading that wrong. You have to look at the columns and the Big XII had the advantage 15-6. If that is correct, then there must be a glitch in the ratings

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Could it have something to do with the SEC going 15-6 against the Big12 so far this season?

Read down. The Big 12 is 15-6 against the SEC.

Arizona 93	Florida 87
Arizona 97	Auburn 68
Arizona 96	Alabama 75
Iowa State 96	Mississippi State 80
Houston 73	Auburn 72
Houston 94	Arkansas 85
Kansas 81	Tennessee 76
Kansas 80	Missouri 60
Texas Tech 82	LSU 58
Oklahoma St 87	Texas A&M 63
TCU 84	Florida 80
Kansas State 98	Mississippi State 77
Arizona State 87	Texas 86
Arizona State 86	Oklahoma 70
Utah 75	Mississippi 74

 

[shizzle787]

What I don't understand is why the conference is averaging less bids after UConn joined the league despite adding an additional elite member

I remember the league getting 5-7 bids routinely when it had 10 members from 2014-2020. The conference peaked at 7/10 bids in 2017 but it hasn't been able to get to that level. We have lost competitiveness since those days. I remember Xavier/Creighton/Villanova/Seton Hall/Providence being solid those days.

We need to get back to those days somehow

Coaching...

Nova lost Wright.
Seton Hall lost Willard.
Xavier lost Mack.
Providence lost Cooley.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Coaching...

Nova lost Wright.
Seton Hall lost Willard.
Xavier lost Mack.
Providence lost Cooley.

There were a handful of really close games that would have completely flipped the narrative of this season for the conference as a whole. Stuff happens.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

How is the SEC 35-41 vs. the other majors yet currently has a rating that is the third highest KenPom of any conference in the last 8 years. How is that possible?

 

[shizzle787]

How is the SEC 35-41 vs. the other majors yet currently has a rating that is the third highest KenPom of any conference in the last 8 years. How is that possible?

With the exception of the bottom quarter of the ACC, the major five conferences have more been more ruthless against the non-majors this year maybe than more than ever.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

With the exception of the bottom quarter of the ACC, the major five conferences have more been more ruthless against the non-majors this year maybe than more than ever.

This is showing up in the ratings. The gap between the #5 and #6 in KenPom is very big. But the rest of the majors ratings are good, not spectacular. I guess the SEC must have some really good losses.

 

[auror]

Why is it way behind the SEC in every rating system? The SEC has a losing record against the other majors, and doesn't play many mid-majors. They may have found a glitch.

There's likely some ratings inertia with the SEC from last year, but also the SEC has no team anywhere near as bad as Utah. The SEC currently has all 16 teams within the KenPom top 100 and 12 within the top 50 (Big 12 has 8).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There's likely some ratings inertia with the SEC from last year, but also the SEC has no team anywhere near as bad as Utah. The SEC currently has all 16 teams within the KenPom top 100 and 12 within the top 50 (Big 12 has 8).

Why are all the SEC teams so highly rated? Look at South Carolina or the Mississippis or even Missouri. Missouri has an OK win over Minnesota, a bunch of wins over bad low majors (7 of them against low majors with 3 or fewer wins), loss to ND, and two blowout losses to Kansas and Illinois. If Xavier is outside the top 100, why isn’t Missouri?

 

[pepband99]

This is showing up in the ratings. The gap between the #5 and #6 in KenPom is very big. But the rest of the majors ratings are good, not spectacular. I guess the SEC must have some really good losses.

Kenpom doesn't care about W/L in the results. It's the 2 efficiency numbers and tempo. If the SEC is doing well, it's because of play, not record.

Also - the Kenpom conference ranking eliminates any teams that aren't likely to make it to .500 in conference. That helps some conferences more than others (thinking the ACC loves not having BC rated in anything, if not existing at all).

 

[RuffRuff]

Good point, the ACC may have a better overall record but there conference has had some horrible losses this year, Syracuse, Pitt, Florida State, and ND. The Big East only had one real bad loss, Buffalo beating DePaul that I can recall.

The ACC still has some terrible teams at the bottom of the league. We do too, and our top teams other than us are mediocre. I’ll take their situation.

Not sure why everyone keeps trying to spin this.

Are we really caring whose awful teams are worse? Stupid exercise. Who cares.

 

[auror]

Also - the Kenpom conference ranking eliminates any teams that aren't likely to make it to .500 in conference. That helps some conferences more than others (thinking the ACC loves not having BC rated in anything, if not existing at all).

It does what now? Show me where he says it does that.