In techincal basketball analysis, what does liam mean for this team where they stand now?

[Jaydumo20]

I only know enough bball strategy as someone who played the game and love it as a fan. But I'm not half as knowledgeable about the nuts and bolts than some BY'ers.

There is a lot of talk about liam's return but the skeptic in me really wonders if he will totally transform this team like we may think.

I understand he brings length, some better D and is definitely our most explosive scorer and someone who can create his own shot. I also know that these things have a waterfall effect for the rest of the team.

But HOW much better will we be?
Looking for something more concrete than "A lot better". I want some real analytics

 

[oshkosh]

Given we lost the last three big east games by 2, 5, and 4 pts, I’d say we probably would have won those games and been in top 10 had he not gotten injured.

 

[REB1094]

All of this is in theory, but…

Offense:

• Liam was the best player at just taking the ball and making a move to score individually. With him gone, it has fallen to Diarra and Karaban (not their game). With Liam back, more defensive attention is spent stopping him, thus less on Karaban and Diarra which frees them up to do what they are better at (HD distribute, AK find open shots off ball). Last 3 games: Diarra 10.7 FGA. Karaban 36% FG so they are feeling that burden. Diarra has actually done pretty well stepping up into this role, with the exception of the Butler game (12pts last night, 15 vs Creighton)
• Rotation. Liam allows us to play Stewart or Ross based on situation instead of forcing big minutes to both. Stewart has played 25 MPG since Liam went down, Ross 15. Based on how they've been playing then it should probably be closer to Stewart 15/Ross 5

Defense:

• While not a great defender, he’s 6’8 and walls up pretty well. Gets beat off dribble a lot but is actually solid at recovering whereas now when people get beat they just give up on the possession. His defensive +/- is higher than Solo, Stewart, and Mahaney so not elite but better than a chunk of our rotation pieces
• Last night Stewart got picked apart by Swain and Ross hasn’t been able to stay in front of anybody since Gonzaga. Again a 6'8 body helps
• Rebounding. Liam is a great rebounder. Combined, Stewart and Ross average 3.3 rebounds per game since Liam went out. Liam alone averages 5.8

 

[UConnTrumbull]

It goes beyond numbers too. He’s one of the few alphas on the squad. Hard to put a numerical value on that.

 

[FreeKlaiber]

Offensively we are clearly better with him, as he creates his own shot (which we lack) and allows AK to be the secondary scorer he can be. Best BBIq on team which helps everywhere.

Bottomline we can't play stifling man the way Hurley wants with this roster, hence the fouls and ISOs. If you can't keep man in front of you on perimeter, doesn't really matter, as we will be really exposed vs good team. Liam is good defensively, but at least half our lineup at any given time isnt, so I think ceiling is lower than I would like to admit.

 

[Palatine]

We don't know. We won't know for another week or so.

 

[jibsey]

We can certainly lose games with Liam back in the lineup, we’ve seen it, but we are a mid BE team without him. No doubt about that anymore.

 

[Poe]

He’s the best all around player on the team and I really believe he’s the difference between losing by a few and winning by a few.

 

[Deepster]

It’s sad and desperate that a back to back champ has this board clamoring for a freshman with a handful of games under his belt as the messiah.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Given we lost the last three big east games by 2, 5, and 4 pts, I’d say we probably would have won those games and been in top 10 had he not gotten injured.

I'll expand that even further.

This is a very good team when Ball, Diarra, McNeeley and Karaban are all healthy.

However, if one of these players are out, it greatly affects the balance of the roster, rendering one or more of the other players much less affective.

When McNeeley comes back, I am confident we'll see a lot more consistency from Karaban and the rest of the team.

In contrast, I would think McNeeley would struggle if Karaban were out.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

It’s sad and desperate that a back to back champ has this board clamoring for a freshman with a handful of games under his belt as the messiah.

Ok so if Cooper Flagg is out injured you don’t think Duke would be struggling a bit?

Edit: probably not in the ACC because it’s a weak conference but overall they would be.

 

[jibsey]

Ok so if Cooper Flagg is out injured you don’t think Duke would be struggling a bit?

Edit: probably not in the ACC because it’s a weak conference but overall they would be.

Without Cooper Flagg they are middle of the ACC pack.

 

[Kemba Time]

You wanted some technical analytics, so here goes:

UConn’s offense was No. 2 in KenPom efficiency when Liam got hurt, and has dropped to No. 10 (for the entire season) since. Torvik offensive rating was No. 3 with Liam and is No. 24 since.

For a team that needs a truly elite offense to overcome some clear defensive shortcomings, with or without Liam, it’s the difference between being able to score its way deep into the second weekend (or beyond) and being in danger of losing as early as Round 1 come March. Practically, it’s also the difference between being unbeaten in Big East play and having 3 close losses by January 25.

It’s not about Liam being the messiah or even an All-American level player, it’s about the cumulative impact of his role. I liken it to a baseball team losing an impact shortstop and replacing him with its second baseman than having to move an outfielder to second and a bench player to that outfield role. You become weaker in a handful of ways beyond just the loss of that one player.

Here is how that plays out for UConn without Liam:

+ On a team short on ball-in-hand creators, Liam was being put in an increased go-to role there leading up the injury — check his assist totals in the games right before he got hurt. Essentially, Hurley was running a horns play to get Liam the ball in downhill space anytime a bucket was needed. (Think Ben Gordon or Jeremy Lamb coming off a screen at the wing in the Calhoun days). Liam then had the option of a jumper, drive to the hoop or kick to an open man in any key spot that Ross or Stew aren’t capable of replicating. That has led to Hass being “stuck” with the ball in his hands more times than anyone would have wanted in those need-a-bucket late-game spots.

+ To fill that gap, Karaban has had to step into more of a ball-creating wing role than his screen-and-pop/spot-up game warrants. Instead of being the screener, top-of-the-key 4 or open shooter benefiting from Liam’s ability to draw in that situation, he has had to get the ball and attempt to go downhill — creating the parade of floaters/jab step-and-go approach that we saw late in the Nova and Creighton games.

+ Similarly, without a true creator that defenses have to honor by helping down when he is attacking downhill, teams have been able to stick to Solo on the perimeter, making him have to work incredibly hard for shots or go through prolonged periods without while being face-guarded since defenses can just key on him without paying.

Liam’s return single-handedly fixes all those holes without him doing more than we have already seen from him. That doesn’t make this team a shoe-in for a deep run, but it instantly creates a ceiling that is lacking right now. He is that important to what this team is trying to accomplish offensively and overpowering opponents with offensive efficiency is essential for this team to succeed.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Without Cooper Flagg they are middle of the ACC pack.

I give them the benefit of the doubt because the ACC is pretty bad but you might be right. My point remains the same.

 

[Hi-Low]

It’s sad and desperate that a back to back champ has this board clamoring for a freshman with a handful of games under his belt as the messiah.

Not really....Liam is the only NBA lottery pick (and probably only 1st rounder) on the roster so why wouldn't he be desperately needed.

 

[Deepster]

Ok so if Cooper Flagg is out injured you don’t think Duke would be struggling a bit?

Edit: probably not in the ACC because it’s a weak conference but overall they would be.

Beginning of the season, we thought we had the deepest team in UConn history. Now we're barely slipping by league bottom feeders at home.

 

[Hi-Low]

Given we lost the last three big east games by 2, 5, and 4 pts, I’d say we probably would have won those games and been in top 10 had he not gotten injured.

Another common thread in the 3 BE losses without Liam....they were AK's worst scoring games as he averaged 9 pts (10,8,9) in the 3 BE losses.

If AK had just played "average" in those 3 games they're probably wins. But the combo of no Liam (best player) & a sub-par scoring AK is hard to overcome with this roster against decent teams.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Beginning of the season, we thought we had the deepest team in UConn history. Now we're barely slipping by league bottom feeders at home.

You’re right about that. Very disappointing.

 

[Gurleyman]

A healthy Liam means we have a triple threat in our offense (shoot, drive or pass). Right now we have Hass, who isn’t a great shooter, Solo, who isn’t a great passer, and AK, who isn’t a great driver. Even when Stewart is on he’s not a driver. Ross is a defender who is kinda 0-3 at this stage of his career.

The one who can do all three is Mahaney, but his other shortcomings keep him off the floor too much - although maybe the door is opening. The guy I saw yesterday was who I expected - if he could shed the weird turnovers. McNeeley really added to his game in the first couple months and was showing a greater ability to drive and pass - so much so that he was emerging as a clear alpha and All-Big East candidate. We might not have an All-Big East player. AK will probably make it based on reputation and maybe Solo has a chance without a shooting slump. But nobody is in the first team conversation. Kalk, Dixon, Jones, Ashworth, Luis, Freemantle, Ejiofor are all in line before any of ours.

The thing is that I don’t think we won’t see the Liam we remember for a few weeks after he comes back … or maybe at all (unless we see him as a sophomore). That high ankle is like a pitchers shoulder. It’s a mechanism that when you have to “shut it down”, it takes away your muscle memory and your feel for your skill. He hasn’t been able to shoot normally and you figure it’ll be heavily taped. He maybe has enough guile to will the ball in from time to time and make some plays, but by the time he shakes off the rust and gets his muscle memory and his feel back, there won’t be much season left, if any. Hope I’m wrong and he hits the ground running - and even a lesser McNeeley can help around the margins. But we are setting ourselves up for a disappointment if we expect him to rip off his warmup pants at Marquette or Creighton and make all the difference.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Beginning of the season, we thought we had the deepest team in UConn history. Now we're barely slipping by league bottom feeders at home.

I think this is the answer I've been looking for but I couldn't find it. They should've been "crush butler at home" good without him based on our expectations. But @Kemba Time made sense to me as well. I'm hopeful

 

[businesslawyer]

It’s sad and desperate that a back to back champ has this board clamoring for a freshman with a handful of games under his belt as the messiah.

LMAO. I know you think the key phrase in your sentence was “sad and desperate” but to rational people th elegy phrase was “back to back champ.”

Rational people recognize you’re not going to be the best team in the nation every year. I hate losing a game as much as you do, but the thought that we are above needing to rely on someone to win is fairly bizarre.

 

[superjohn]

It’s sad and desperate that a back to back champ has this board clamoring for a freshman with a handful of games under his belt as the messiah.

He's not a typical freshman. He's a lottery pick and our best player. I think it's obvious Hurley made a couple mistakes on roster construction if he expected to three-peat but the season and this board would be looking a lot different had McNeeley not gotten hurt.

Castle would've been our best player most seasons we just happened to have the best starting 5 any of us have seen last season. McNeeley is that type of player.

 

[auror]

Here are the numbers:

This is games post UMES (so after Maui when the games actually started to matter and the coach had figured out the roster a bit more), garbage time filtered out and luck-adjusted (mainly regressing 3pt shooting).

What jumps out:
Opponents had a harder time scoring at the rim with him in the game. He kept guys in front better than alternatives (Stewart, Ross), so that even if they got to the rim, they were trying to score over him. He was also a very good defensive rebounder, allowing us to end more possessions and give up less at-rim putbacks.

On offense, we drew more fouls and turned the ball over a lot less. He is a very good decision maker, and on slashes he made the right read most of the time. The team was also able to use McNeeley/Karaban as dueling weapons, driving with the one who had a bigger mismatch, kicking out to the other or Solo.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Here are the numbers:

This is games post UMES (so after Maui when the games actually started to matter and the coach had figured out the roster a bit more), garbage time filtered out and luck-adjusted (mainly regressing 3pt shooting).

What jumps out:
Opponents had a harder time scoring at the rim with him in the game. He kept guys in front better than alternatives (Stewart, Ross), so that even if they got to the rim, they were trying to score over him. He was also a very good defensive rebounder, allowing us to end more possessions and give up less at-rim putbacks.

On offense, we drew more fouls and turned the ball over a lot less. He is a very good decision maker, and on slashes he made the right read most of the time. The team was also able to use McNeeley/Karaban as dueling weapons, driving with the one who had a bigger mismatch, kicking out to the other or Solo.

Nice work. The fact that our losses have all been tight does make me confident his return is that important. I hope these numbers prove true.