Illinois Defensive Matchups | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Illinois Defensive Matchups

The thing that would worry me is if they put Hawkins at the 5 to bring Clingan out the paint. If they did that they’d have a huge disadvantage on the boards and on defense though.
 
Their margin yesterday is a bit misleading because of all the missed FT. And that seems a bit unusual. They shoot about 74% for the year. I think our D vs theirs has to be the difference because they can score. St John’s put up 90 on us. I don’t think we want that type of game with Illinois. There really aren’t’ many teams left that we can write down as a win. And I actually thought SDSU was one of them based on how close almost all their games were against meh competition.
 
cohenzone said:
Their margin yesterday is a bit misleading because of all the missed FT. And that seems a bit unusual. They shoot about 74% for the year. I think our D vs theirs has to be the difference because they can score. St John’s put up 90 on us. I don’t think we want that type of game with Illinois. There really aren’t’ many teams left that we can write down as a win. And I actually thought SDSU was one of them based on how close almost all their games were against meh competition.
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I agree since Illinois has played at least decent competition throughout the year. SD St played the Mountain West, which is horrible. This is going to be a much bigger challenge.

The team that wins this game will face... either Clemson or Alabama for a spot in the National Championship. The opportunity is there.
 
I like to use Evan Miya stats to look at individual players. EvanMiya used OBPR (Offensive Bayesian Performance Rating) and DBPR) (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating) to rank players. I have never seen a team with a group of individual players rated as high as UConn as UConn has 6 players ranked in the top 35 of all of college basketball. So, here are the overall rankings of the individual players as well as their OBPR and DBPR ratings:

UConn:

Overall ranking is first.

2 Clingan OBPR = 6.06, DBPR = 4.49
9 Newton OBPR = 6.00, DBPR = 2.05
13 Castle OBPR = 4.31, DBPR = 3.19
15 Spencer OBPR = 5.50, DBPR = 1.89
24 Karaban OBPR = 5.11, DBPR = 1.88
35 Diarra OBPR = 3.85, DBPR = 2.81
454 Johnson OBPR = 2.00, DBPR = 1.34

Illinois:

16 Hawkins OBPR = 5.52, DBPR = 1.84
25 Shannon OBPR = 5.78, DBPR = 1.18
119 Domask OBPR = 4.62, DBPR = 0.53
184 Guerrier OBPR = 3.13, DBPR = 1.54
229 Rodgers OBPR = 3.28, DBPR = 1.14
292 Dainja OBPR = 1.98, DBPR = 2.13
309 Harmon OBPR = 3.30, DBPR = 0.70

EvanMiya CBB Analytics
 
HuskyWarrior611 said:
The thing that would worry me is if they put Hawkins at the 5 to bring Clingan out the paint. If they did that they’d have a huge disadvantage on the boards and on defense though.
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Yeah, that matchup is a give and take. Clingan will put Hawkins in a body bag on the offensive end, but I think if you’re underwood, you have to do it. With Castle on Shannon, you can’t also have Clingan camped in the paint.
 
cohenzone said:
Their margin yesterday is a bit misleading because of all the missed FT. And that seems a bit unusual. They shoot about 74% for the year. I think our D vs theirs has to be the difference because they can score. St John’s put up 90 on us. I don’t think we want that type of game with Illinois. There really aren’t’ many teams left that we can write down as a win. And I actually thought SDSU was one of them based on how close almost all their games were against meh competition.
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we also put up 95 pts on St Johns and their mid 50's rated defense versus Illinois mid 80's rated defense. Run our offense the way we've been running it and the open shots will be there to make
 
Vuce said:
we also put up 95 pts on St Johns and their mid 50's rated defense versus Illinois mid 80's rated defense. Run our offense the way we've been running it and the open shots will be there to make
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Yes on our O. But getting into a shoot out with them is a little risky. We had to have 95 to win that SJ game. Illinois is a better offensive team than the JohnnIes.
 
Vuce said:
Marquette beat them earlier this year - call Shaka and see what he says. Illinois has a very good offense - right up there with ours (UConn 1 vs Illinois 2 on KenPom). Their defense is rated 84th while UConn is 6th. They have to guard us too and that's where the advantage is
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In last year's Elite 8 we played a team with an offense equally as good as ours, but with a D that was much worse, and we won by 30.
 
tzznandrew said:
I think our size on defense is going to present them problems as much (if not more) than their size does ours.
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Their backcourt is like 6'6, 6'6 6'6 and probably accustomed to getting to bully smaller guards. Not so with us. And that doesn't even get to the impact of Clingan (though I expect them to mitigate this by pulling their center to the 3 point line).

Our individual on-ball D will be a major factor, and I think Castle, Newton, and Diarra are up to the challenge. Spencer may need some help.
 
i haven't watched enough illinois. how mobile is hawkins on those threes? is it reasonable for clingan to run with him?
 
uh-no said:
i haven't watched enough illinois. how mobile is hawkins on those threes? is it reasonable for clingan to run with him?
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He's very mobile and shoots 38% on 4.5 attempts per game. I'm not particularly worried about Clingan guarding him but Samson is a much better matchup. Clingan will give up some points on defense but he's going to eat him alive on offense like the Northwestern game
 
cohenzone said:
Their margin yesterday is a bit misleading because of all the missed FT. And that seems a bit unusual. They shoot about 74% for the year. I think our D vs theirs has to be the difference because they can score. St John’s put up 90 on us. I don’t think we want that type of game with Illinois. There really aren’t’ many teams left that we can write down as a win. And I actually thought SDSU was one of them based on how close almost all their games were against meh competition.
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Tenspro2002 said:
Their backcourt is like 6'6, 6'6 6'6 and probably accustomed to getting to bully smaller guards. Not so with us. And that doesn't even get to the impact of Clingan (though I expect them to mitigate this by pulling their center to the 3 point line).

Our individual on-ball D will be a major factor, and I think Castle, Newton, and Diarra are up to the challenge. Spencer may need some help.
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So you think Clingan will follow Hawkins to 3 point line? How many and at what % does Hawkins shoot 3’s?
 
cohenzone said:
Yes on our O. But getting into a shoot out with them is a little risky. We had to have 95 to win that SJ game. Illinois is a better offensive team than the JohnnIes.
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And Illinois is a worse defensive team than St John's - we will have open shots against their defense.
 
AllHusky said:
So you think Clingan will follow Hawkins to 3 point line? How many and at what % does Hawkins shoot 3’s?
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Their main lineup is a true 5-out offense, Hawkins takes half his shots from 3, and makes a good clip.

We can either park Clingan in the paint and hope Hawkins doesn't go 5-8, or lose his rim protection and rebounding.
 
Marat said:
Newton needs to be careful on that. Sometimes he throws a lazy pass and knows it.
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I think the key will be UConn playing a full 40 minutes. They haven't had to do that yet in the tournament. Even Diarra and Cam have thrown some soft passes at times. I think ironically it's Clingan and Karaban that always seem to have at least a little zip on the passes.
Many have described them as streaky and the best thing to beat a streaky team is to consistent on the defensive end and never let them feel like anything they throw up will go in.
 
HuskyWarrior611 said:
The thing that would worry me is if they put Hawkins at the 5 to bring Clingan out the paint. If they did that they’d have a huge disadvantage on the boards and on defense though.
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Let Coleman Hawkins take threes. Lock up Shannon and have Clingan anchoring our D down low.
 
navery12 said:
Getting into a shootout bodes well for UConn, because we have the defense to get a few stops down the stretch and they do not
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All I’m saying is that they are dangerous in a shoot out and better at it than St Johns. You disagree? 95-90 vs St. John’s wasn’t our shining night. 90 points isn’t a lot of defensive stops.. I think it is risky against Illinois, especially if our shooting is off. Our D must be the key and, as usual, keep DC out of foul trouble.
 
cohenzone said:
All I’m saying is that they are dangerous in a shoot out and better at it than St Johns. You disagree? 95-90 vs St. John’s wasn’t our shining night. 90 points isn’t a lot of defensive stops.. I think it is risky against Illinois, especially if our shooting is off. Our D must be the key and, as usual, keep DC out of foul trouble.
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I do disagree, they're a really good team and better than St John's on offense, but they're a much worse defensive team than St John's. They don't force turnovers and much like UConn like to force teams off the 3 point line, which I think UConn will be more than happy to do and let Clingan abuse Hawkins inside and our guards drive to the basket.

St John's is also the only team to break 70 points since January 10th so I'm not even really sure of the relevance. And that includes 5 games against Creighton and Marquette who are both better offensive teams than St John's. That game was pretty clearly an abberation
 

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