If Vic Schaefer was still in Starkville...

[sivad40]

Johnny Harris is who they should've given the job to. Mississippi State has a ton of talent and all of the players wouldve likely bought into playing under her system. McCray can definitely turn things around but it is always difficult to take over a successful program with a roster of kids who all played for a successful coach previously.

I take it your in the "long time assistant coach should be the successor" camp?

 

[MSUrealist]

CL82, I'm in agreement with your comment, "Why not focus on the team and coach that’s there, rather than fantasize about one that’s not." In a subtle way, that's what I was doing. MS State have been fixated all year on NMP not living up to what VS would have done with this year's team. When I write a post about the situation and somewhat gutted roster that NMP inherited, MSU fans just don't give it any consideration. I thought they maybe by writing about all the ways this team would be better with VS, things that have nothing to do with actual coaching, then maybe some would see that expecting NMP to come in and the program not miss a beat was unrealistic. It was a long shot attempt, and like most long shots, I suspect it missed the mark with most everyone.

I look at the way NMP succeeded at building the Old Dominion program and I still believe she will be a success at MSU and was a good hire. This year has been rough and she has caught no breaks and certainly has been given no breaks by the fan base. The fans will always want the kind of success that VS was able to put together when he had Tearia McCowan coupled together with Victoria Vivians, and it is going to be hard for any future coach to match that success. Much like UCLA being dissatisfied for decades with any coach who didn't win a championship at least every other year like John Wooden, I think the MSU fans are in for a long stretch of discontent. I also think Texas fans will be in for the same.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

MS State have been fixated all year on NMP not living up to what VS would have done with this year's team. When I write a post about the situation and somewhat gutted roster that NMP inherited, MSU fans just don't give it any consideration.

This fan doesn't give the gutted roster line any consideration because it's not true. McCray inherited a very talented roster, one that was good enough to be considered top 10 back in April. Danberry was gone, yes Bibby and AEH transferred but waiting in the wings were two McDonald's All Americans in Cooks and Hayes. When a team brings back their two leading, All SEC scorers, starting point guard, and has an upperclassman transfer waiting in the wings that in no way constitutes a gutted roster. That's a roster with experience and talent when the season before they were SEC runner up and were set to be a top 16 seed host in the tournament.

I am not trying to be disrespectful and you could be right that Nikki needs time to get "her" players in. I disagree with that sentiment but it's not inconceivable she could turn out to be a good coach. However, the phrase gutted roster is melodramatic, inaccurate, and is little more than excuse making. If Nikki turns it around next year and the next I will be one of the first to admit I was wrong.

Vic would have done more with this roster but he isn't here and that's a sailed ship. This is about how our AD made another bad hire because he's is subpar at his job. That's a different conversation for a different day but the larger problem with MSU athletics is in that office and not necessarily the individual coaches.

 

[MSUrealist]

MSSportsGuy, I'm going to agree with you that "gutted" is likely the wrong word, but let's take an honest look at the roster. We both agree that Jackson and Carter are good SEC players and their averages this year are about the same as last year. Taylor as a point guard is someone many fans wanted benched last year because of her lack of shooting, but I think we both agree that she is a good SEC player. That's a good nucleus. Now let's take an honest look at everyone else who came back and how they did in 2019-20:

Mingo-Young: Played 13 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, a .417 fg%, and .294 from 3-point range. Definitely a contributor as a freshman and showed potential, but not an automatic SEC caliber starter this year.

Matharu: Played 9.9 mpg, 7.1 ppg, 1.8 rpg, a .452 fg%, and .379 from 3-point range. A real sparkplug off the bench as a freshman who could get you quick points and then give them up on the defensive end. There's a reason Vic only played her 10 minutes per game so I would say she wasn't an automatic SEC caliber starter this year.

Morris: 9 mpg, 3.4 mpg, 2.4 rpg, a .646 fg%, and 31 blocks which was 2nd on the team. She didn't fit well in Vic's one-on-one defense last year and doesn't fit well in NMP's push the ball offense this year. I think she is a good player who has been in the wrong systems.

Xaria Wiggins: No point in listing her stats because she has played so little this year due to a medical condition.

Sidney Cooks: Has any MSU fan ever looked at her Michigan State years? As a freshman she started 21 of 31 games but her 20 mpg were 7th on the team. She averaged 9.6 ppg and 4.8 rpg. As a sophomore she only started 8 of 30 games, her minutes were 19.4 (6th on the team), she had 9.5 ppg and 4.5 rpg. Definitely a contributor but not a star and she came into this season having not played in an NCAA game in about 20 months.

Madison Hayes: Has had a good freshman season, especially considering the practice limitations due to Covid-19, but still a freshman trying to learn a new system at a much higher level of competition.

So that's the roster left by Vic for NMP. Three starters returning is great, but then you have 3 players entering their second year after playing limited minutes in 2019-20, an unavailable player because of medical conditions, a player who sat out a year after two good but not great seasons at Michigan State, and a freshman who hasn't had the typical amount of practice times or games because of Covid. Maybe that isn't a gutted roster, but I don't see how any MSU fans thinks that NMP took over a team with top-10 talent or maybe even top-25 talent.

 

[Creature]

If Vic Schaefer was still in Starkville then MS State would almost certainly be a top-10 team, could quite possibly be a top-5 team, and it's not a massive stretch to think they could currently be the #1 ranked team. Before you dismiss this as fantasy thinking by a fan, consider the following (which BTW has nothing to do with comparing the coaching abilities of Vic Schaefer with those of Nikki McCray Penson).

If Vic Schaefer had stayed on as head coach, MS State would be significantly better in at least 3 ways:
1) Returning players would be familiar with the offense and defense right from the start. Also, the coaches would have a much better understanding of each players strengths and weaknesses, how to best communicate with each player, etc.
2) Transfers Lauren Ebo and Kyra Lambert, plus freshman Deyona Gaston would all be in Starkville instead of Austin. This would add a veteran guard to the roster plus much needed help at the 4 position. It would also free up Sidney Cooks to help backup the 5 spot. (It's possible that Chloe Bibby would have also stayed, but I'm not factoring that into my argument.)
3) The coaching staff would be much more knowledgeable with regard to opposing SEC teams and players (such as Texas A&M and South Carolina).

I think it's fair to say that MS State would have far better continuity going into this season, a stronger roster, and would be better prepared for opposing teams if Vic Schaefer had stayed in Starkville. It's not a stretch to say that these improvements would have been enough to turn the overtime losses against Kentucky and South Florida into wins. IMO, the 86-78 loss to Alabama and the 86-80 loss to Arkansas become wins as well. Stop right there and MS State is 12-2 with 4 wins over top-25 teams and the only losses being to #5 Texas A&M and #2 South Carolina, certainly good enough for a top-10 ranking. Considering that Coach Schaefer almost beat Texas A&M with his Texas team this year, it's not crazy to think that MS State could have won that game and at 13-1 they would then be the team ranked #5. And while it would definitely be an upset, is it too hard to believe that Vic could have won in Starkville against South Carolina this year, putting the team at 14-0 and at the top of the ranking?

Naturally this is all speculation and the truth of the matter is that MS State is currently 8-6 and unranked. I don't see that as an indictment against Nikki McCray Penson. No new coach is going to have the continuity or the knowledge of the league like that of a returning coach. And there was no way she could keep Schaefer from diverting those 3 players from Starkville to Austin. She is playing with a totally different hand than what Vic would have held if he had stayed--the difference between what is and what could have been. (BTW, I was originally for Johnnie Harris to be promoted because of reasons #1 and #3 above. However, the drawback was her lack of head coaching experience PLUS she would have had to bring in a totally new staff since Vic was taking everyone else to Austin. When I looked at what NMP did at Old Dominion, I switched over to thinking she was the better choice and I continute to believe that she will end up proving to be an excellent choice.)

So how is Vic doing in TX this year? Wonder if Tx fans saying the same thing?

 

[bballnut90]

I take it your in the "long time assistant coach should be the successor" camp?

Depends on the coach/situation. We consistently heard how great Harris was at MSU which made me think she'd be a good candidate. She also recruited all of those players on the roster, and most of the players were freshmen or sophomores.

 

[DefenseBB]

Depends on the coach/situation. We consistently heard how great Harris was at MSU which made me think she'd be a good candidate. She also recruited all of those players on the roster, and most of the players were freshmen or sophomores.

As I stated in my thread about Hiring at P5, elevating an Assistant does not have the success that one would think. Nikki McCray got the job at Old Dominion because she was a top P5 Assistant at SC. She was only at OD for 3 years so who knows how good a coach she was as she really only had 1 year of her players she recruited from the start of their Junior year in HS.

While I disagree that MSU is a top 5 program, they are top 10ish at best. Let's get back to the reality that MSU made their meteoric rise with Teaira McCown to achieve 2 Final Fours. They still lag behind UConn, Stanford, SC, ND, Baylor, Louisville, Maryland from elite consistency across multiple classes to be considered top 5. I might put them in the next tier of Texas A&M, Ohio State, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas of programs with history and resources to garner elite prospects and contend. Oregon, Oregon State and UCLA are knocking on this door to prove they too can do it over multiple classes.

So where should have MSU gone for a coach, first would have been a lesser P5 program whose coach has achieved success coaching against the big boys/gals. Someone like Raegan Pebley, Adia Barnes, Scott Rueck are 3 names who were/are not making elite money. Whether they would have come who knows. Karls Smesko at FCGU has a longer history of success then NMP across multiple classes of students. So does Lisa Fortier at Gonzaga. Heck, any of the South Dakota or SDSU programs also have excellent coaching acumen to coach up the better athletes at MSU and they are enthusiastic

I do have agree that the odds could be 50/50 that MSU might miss the NCAAT which I never would have fathomed at the start of the year. Wow, just wow.

 

[SimpleDawg]

So how is Vic doing in TX this year? Wonder if Tx fans saying the same thing?

Doesn't look like he's gonna miss the tournament. We can say that for sure.

Interesting the only people defending McCray are South Carolina fans and a small sample of MSU fans (tho the latter is to be expected). Even Tennessee fans are NOT defending her.

 

[Creature]

Doesn't look like he's gonna miss the tournament. We can say that for sure.

Interesting the only people defending McCray are South Carolina fans and a small sample of MSU fans (tho the latter is to be expected). Even Tennessee fans are NOT defending her.

Dawn Vs Vic 13-3 from 2012-2020
I confess myself confused as to what you expect from NMP that Vic could not deliver.

 

[SimpleDawg]

Dawn Vs Vic 13-3 from 2012-2020
I confess myself confused as to what you expect from NMP that Vic could not deliver.

Why is Vic defined by his record vs Dawn? Do South Carolina fans see anything else apart from their dominance over... like... everyone?

 

[Creature]

If Vic Schaefer was still in Starkville then MS State would almost certainly be a top-10 team, could quite possibly be a top-5 team, and it's not a massive stretch to think they could currently be the #1 ranked team. Before you dismiss this as fantasy thinking by a fan, consider the following (which BTW has nothing to do with comparing the coaching abilities of Vic Schaefer with those of Nikki McCray Penson).

If Vic Schaefer had stayed on as head coach, MS State would be significantly better in at least 3 ways:
1) Returning players would be familiar with the offense and defense right from the start. Also, the coaches would have a much better understanding of each players strengths and weaknesses, how to best communicate with each player, etc.
2) Transfers Lauren Ebo and Kyra Lambert, plus freshman Deyona Gaston would all be in Starkville instead of Austin. This would add a veteran guard to the roster plus much needed help at the 4 position. It would also free up Sidney Cooks to help backup the 5 spot. (It's possible that Chloe Bibby would have also stayed, but I'm not factoring that into my argument.)
3) The coaching staff would be much more knowledgeable with regard to opposing SEC teams and players (such as Texas A&M and South Carolina).

I think it's fair to say that MS State would have far better continuity going into this season, a stronger roster, and would be better prepared for opposing teams if Vic Schaefer had stayed in Starkville. It's not a stretch to say that these improvements would have been enough to turn the overtime losses against Kentucky and South Florida into wins. IMO, the 86-78 loss to Alabama and the 86-80 loss to Arkansas become wins as well. Stop right there and MS State is 12-2 with 4 wins over top-25 teams and the only losses being to #5 Texas A&M and #2 South Carolina, certainly good enough for a top-10 ranking. Considering that Coach Schaefer almost beat Texas A&M with his Texas team this year, it's not crazy to think that MS State could have won that game and at 13-1 they would then be the team ranked #5. And while it would definitely be an upset, is it too hard to believe that Vic could have won in Starkville against South Carolina this year, putting the team at 14-0 and at the top of the ranking?

Naturally this is all speculation and the truth of the matter is that MS State is currently 8-6 and unranked. I don't see that as an indictment against Nikki McCray Penson. No new coach is going to have the continuity or the knowledge of the league like that of a returning coach. And there was no way she could keep Schaefer from diverting those 3 players from Starkville to Austin. She is playing with a totally different hand than what Vic would have held if he had stayed--the difference between what is and what could have been. (BTW, I was originally for Johnnie Harris to be promoted because of reasons #1 and #3 above. However, the drawback was her lack of head coaching experience PLUS she would have had to bring in a totally new staff since Vic was taking everyone else to Austin. When I looked at what NMP did at Old Dominion, I switched over to thinking she was the better choice and I continute to believe that she will end up proving to be an excellent choice.)

Just my opinion but I feel like Bulldog fans are rooting for Nikki to fail. Why? Because she aint Vic...mind boggling

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Just my opinion but I feel like Bulldog fans are rooting for Nikki to fail. Why? Because she aint Vic...mind boggling

I don't speak for all Bulldog fans but I wasn't rooting for Nikki to fail. I wasn't expecting Vic out of her first power 5 coaching job but I maintain she inherited a very talented roster that should be a top 10 squad given their returning talent. What I saw was far from that and it is understandable to have some adjusting to do. What bothered me and still does it the team doesn't act like they care if they win or lose. Nikki shows zero emotion on the sidelines and seems to not know what to do with this team. When this team gets behind they fold and would spiral. Vic's team had a fight in them and would often go down swinging. McCray's team gets down 10 points and quits.

The SEC is much better this year. Vic would have had a tough time with A&M, UT and Georgia are better as well. I have a feeling there will be more than a few transfers from this team and fear it will take some time for Nikki to build a roster to her liking that is competitive. I am not sure she can do that.

If she turns it around I will be the first to admit I was wrong and do hope she is successful. I've loved women's basketball since I was a student at MSU in the early/mid 90s and we were the worst team in the conference. It was a lot of fun to be one of the top Dogs (pun intended) for a few years. I bleed maroon and always will but am unsure she will ever get the program back to the middle of the SEC let alone the top and a national reputation.

 

[SimpleDawg]

For the Nikki McCray Penson defenders,

Amaka Agugua-Hamilton has Missouri State just as good as Kellie left them. Kyra Elzy has Kentucky playing at about the same level they've always played at. Why are these 2 newbies sustaining their programs while McCray is doing so poorly?

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

For the Nikki McCray Penson defenders,

Amaka Agugua-Hamilton has Missouri State juast as good as Kellie left them. Kyra Elzy has Kentucky playing at about the same level they've always played at. Why are these 2 newbies sustaining their programs while McCray is doing so poorly?

While I am not a Nikki McCray Penson defender or detractor, I think there are different discussions to be had with respect to Amaka Agugua-Hamilton and Kyra Elzy.

Elzy spent 2008-1010 (Assistant HC), 2010-2012 (Associate HC), and 2016-2020 (Associate HC) at Kentucky with Matthew Mitchell. She had her imprint in Kentucky's success under Mitchell. Her tenure is a continuation of Mitchell, in a sense.

Agugua-Hamilton, on the other hand, came to Missouri State, after assistant coaching stops at VCU, Indiana, ODU, and Michigan State from 2007-2019. She came to Missouri State without having been with the program before, as a player or assistant. Maintaining success is arguably more difficult, as she came to the program new - similar to Nikki McCray-Penson.

 

[DefenseBB]

I think CamrnCrz has nailed the assessment pretty concisely, with my quibble that I think Elzy has significantly more talent on Kentucky this year due to the transfers of Dre'Una Edwards, Jaz Massengill and Olivia Owens. This team has underperformed and has not been consistent at all. That is on the coaching. Will Elzy improve, maybe, maybe not so I am not sure I would call her a success story yet.

 

[MSUrealist]

Cherry picking two teams from around the nation is suppose to stand as proof of something? That's weak. Someone could counter by pointing out that Old Dominion was 24-6 and 14-4 in conference last year under NMP and they fell to 13-10 and 7-9 this year, thereby proving NMP is a great coach and Delisha Milton-Jones is terrible. That would also be cherry picking and a weak argument.

BTW, I'm starting to see some mentions on the MSU forums that NMP inherited some significant behind-the-scenes problems that started in the 2019-20 season. It brings up the question of what did Jordan Danberry mean when she tweeted "so many skeletons about to come out" right after Vic left for Texas, a tweet she later deleted. Or why the co-publisher of the MSU 247sports page has been saying for weeks that there will be transfers "for the betterment of the team". Maybe the situation was a little more toxic at MSU than most fans realize.

THAT BEING SAID, I do want to make it clear that I have never made the argument that NMP is going to be a success at MSU. I just think we can't use this year as an indicator of how she will do in the long run. FWIW, I believe it is unlikely that she or any other coach at MSU will ever reach the level of success Vic had, not with South Carolina having signing classes of the number 2, 3, 4, and 14th players on the ESPN rankings and not without getting a once in a lifetime recruit like Teaira McCowan. If the Vivians-McCowan years are the standard that future MSU coaches are expected to reach, then there's going to be a lot of disappointment ahead for MSU fans.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Cherry picking two teams from around the nation is suppose to stand as proof of something? That's weak. Someone could counter by pointing out that Old Dominion was 24-6 and 14-4 in conference last year under NMP and they fell to 13-10 and 7-9 this year, thereby proving NMP is a great coach and Delisha Milton-Jones is terrible. That would also be cherry picking and a weak argument.

BTW, I'm starting to see some mentions on the MSU forums that NMP inherited some significant behind-the-scenes problems that started in the 2019-20 season. It brings up the question of what did Jordan Danberry mean when she tweeted "so many skeletons about to come out" right after Vic left for Texas, a tweet she later deleted. Or why the co-publisher of the MSU 247sports page has been saying for weeks that there will be transfers "for the betterment of the team". Maybe the situation was a little more toxic at MSU than most fans realize.

THAT BEING SAID, I do want to make it clear that I have never made the argument that NMP is going to be a success at MSU. I just think we can't use this year as an indicator of how she will do in the long run. FWIW, I believe it is unlikely that she or any other coach at MSU will ever reach the level of success Vic had, not with South Carolina having signing classes of the number 2, 3, 4, and 14th players on the ESPN rankings and not without getting a once in a lifetime recruit like Teaira McCowan. If the Vivians-McCowan years are the standard that future MSU coaches are expected to reach, then there's going to be a lot of disappointment ahead for MSU fans.

You ever heard of Madison Booker?

 

[Gamecockfan77]

For the Nikki McCray Penson defenders,

Amaka Agugua-Hamilton has Missouri State just as good as Kellie left them. Kyra Elzy has Kentucky playing at about the same level they've always played at. Why are these 2 newbies sustaining their programs while McCray is doing so poorly?

I think Kentucky is playing much worse than they would have without the coaching change, but that's just my opinion.

I think MM would have had them near TAMU and South Carolina.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I grossly overestimated Miss State this season, but the coaches were not surprised.

After the breakdown of the roster, i think the coaches were right to doubt the talent minus the losses from the prior season.

Miss State needed big growth from stars and young players and didn't get it. But they didn't really get a whole lot of regression either. Everyone seems to be doing about what they've done before.

 

[MSUrealist]

You ever heard of Madison Booker?

Mississippi player currently ranked 9th in the class of 2023. There was a time when Mississippi produced players like her with greater frequency, two good examples being former MSU stars LaToya Thomas of Greenville and Tan White of Tupelo. And in the past when there wasn't as much of the AAU involvement and nationwide recruiting services it was easier to keep the better players in state. Hopefully she'll end up at MSU but for that to happen they'll have to out recruit every top program in America.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Mississippi player currently ranked 9th in the class of 2023. There was a time when Mississippi produced players like her with greater frequency, two good examples being former MSU stars LaToya Thomas of Greenville and Tan White of Tupelo. And in the past when there wasn't as much of the AAU involvement and nationwide recruiting services it was easier to keep the better players in state. Hopefully she'll end up at MSU but for that to happen they'll have to out recruit every top program in America.

I have seen her on YouTube. She is really good. When Vic was coach she was considering MSST. If Nikki can recruit her I believe we may be righting the ship but I believe the Ole Miss Coach will be a major competitor for her services.

 

[cbraarj]

He's not,so they're not.

 

[visitingcock]

Kentucky was preseason #10/11 and is currently #17. Elzy has been far from great but Mississippi State was preseason #6 and might completely miss the NCAA tournament.

They were preseason #6 as ranked by a bunch of sports journalists from around the country.

the coaches of the SEC who know the roster and competition much, much better chose MSU to be only the fifth best in the conference.

 

[JellyBean]

Who knows what could have happened if he stayed in Starkville. Maybe they continued their run. Maybe they fall off. The bottom line is, nobody knows what could have happened if he stayed.