If UCF is 0-5, why are we a +2.5 underdog?

[temery]

Worth noting - I know about football, and less about betting odds.

 

[Jimdish255]

Nobody loves us so we're just gonna have to run up the score

 

[uconndogs]

Who was president the last time we won a road game?

We are climbing out of a big hole. It is going to take some time folks.

 

[whaler11]

A couple of offshore books put up lines on Sunday night. Those are generally based on where they power rate the teams, who is at home, and minor adjustments for other things you wouldn't have in a power rating (like new injuries).

They take some smaller bets to give them an idea directionally which way they should move the opener.

Then a whole bunch of other books (Vegas for example) copy their lines and they raise the limits.

From there everyone pretty much moves the line together based off what a couple of market leaders do - like Pinnacle in the UK.

The line moves more on who is betting what - meaning that the books know who the sharper players and groups are and their opinion matters.

So the UConn game opened around +2.5 went to a pick in a about a day and then money came back from the right people to push it back to -2.5.

 

[temery]

Who was president the last time we won a road game?

We are climbing out of a big hole. It is going to take some time folks.

username checks out.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

Worth noting - I know about football, and less about betting odds.

Ask Nostical.

 

[Nostical]

Games like this are assessed differently by the books according to two of my buddies in Vegas. This is an assessment by the books that we're a slightly better than even bet with UCF. With the 3pt home field add-on not fully given the books are looking for a UCF betting edge but they feel UConn is actually considered the better team by 0.5. This is a lock for the Huskies and any bettor who does not take the Huskies here is throwing his coin away. Huskies win big today.

 

[whaler11]

Ask Nostical.

That worked out well.

 

[temery]

Games like this are assessed differently by the books according to two of my buddies in Vegas. This is an assessment by the books that we're a slightly better than even bet with UCF. With the 3pt home field add-on not fully given the books are looking for a UCF betting edge but they feel UConn is actually considered the better team by 0.5. This is a lock for the Huskies and any bettor who does not take the Huskies here is throwing his coin away. Huskies win big today.

If I knew how to place a bet, I would.

 

[Matt1010]

We just took some heavy money and are now -1.5 on my site.

 

[whaler11]

We just took some heavy money and are now -1.5 on my site.

Yeah I guess I shouldn't have held out for 3. Maybe it's money that moves lines?

 

[TheDoggPound]

The line set doesn't depict the true odds. That's a common misconception. It's attributed to who's betting on who and adjusted based off that NOT off of the chances the two teams have vs. one another

 

[HuskyDogArt]

The line set doesn't depict the true odds. That's a common misconception. It's attributed to who's betting on who and adjusted based off that NOT off of the chances the two teams have vs. one another

RE:Your avitar is great...I saw those t-shirts when I was on the Whaler forum page..

 

[whaler11]

RE:Your avitar is great...I saw those t-shirts when I was on the Whaler forum page..

My brother is the one pushing that logo everywhere. He claimed he sold 200 tshirts in like a day.

He fixed it this week to get rid of the mustache looking part. The new one looks a lot better.

 

[whaler11]

The line set doesn't depict the true odds. That's a common misconception. It's attributed to who's betting on who and adjusted based off that NOT off of the chances the two teams have vs. one another

Some truth in that - but it's a fairly efficient market. If it wasn't it would be easy to win - yet a small percentage do and a good number of them have to spend time manipulating the market.

 

[Dooley]

UConn line has moved hardcore. Now UConn -1 on Bovada.

 

[methodology]

Line probably had to due with UCF getting their starting QB back after having a true freshman playing QB for the past 3 weeks. They also get their #1 receiver back for todays game after having a freshman trio of WRs for the past few weeks.

 

[Nostical]

Any further questions?

 

[whaler11]

Any further questions?

Gotta love the who crows when he's right half the time.

 

[temery]

Any further questions?

Yes, why didn't you convince me to place a bet?

 

[J187Money]

Mine is the upper right.

Also threw in some for BB to win NC at 25:1.

 

[ct06111]

My brother is the one pushing that logo everywhere. He claimed he sold 200 tshirts in like a day.

He fixed it this week to get rid of the mustache looking part. The new one looks a lot better.

Tell him: thank you and awesome idea! I bought a hoodie and t-shirt.

 

[BNich]

Games like this are assessed differently by the books according to two of my buddies in Vegas. This is an assessment by the books that we're a slightly better than even bet with UCF. With the 3pt home field add-on not fully given the books are looking for a UCF betting edge but they feel UConn is actually considered the better team by 0.5. This is a lock for the Huskies and any bettor who does not take the Huskies here is throwing his coin away. Huskies win big today.

You must have a crystal ball.

Anyone put money on the Huskies?