If common sense prevails and UConn does NOT go to L'Ville,

[Zorro]

how would you rate the Card's chances against The LV, Baylor, Duke, NC, Md, SCar or Stanford? And what about their chances against ND?

 

[Phil]

Notre Dame 12%
Duke 42%
Baylor 46%
Stanford 38%
UNC 66%
Maryland 54%
South Carolina 62%
Tennessee 54%

Assuming they meet ND or Stanford in FF, others at Louisville

 

[Sonny44]

Notre Dame 12%
Duke 42%
Baylor 46%
Stanford 38%
UNC 66%
Maryland 54%
South Carolina 62%
Tennessee 54%

Assuming they meet ND or Stanford in FF, others at Louisville

Pretty fair guesses I suspect.

 

[Lion1]

Phil,
Where are you getting these numbers? Random percentages, or based upon what? Sounds great, but I'm curious about how you picked them.

 

[Phil]

I used the Sagarin rating and an over-simplified assumption of a normal distribution with standard deviation of ten points, plus 3 point adjustment for home court.

Sagarin numbers are almost eerily good at predicting margins of victory. the ten point standard deviation is something I found somewhere, and may be weak. The normal assumption is good enough for reasonably close teams as these all are, I might rethink if it was a 1-16 match up

 

[DobbsRover2]

So wait a minute. The Cardinals have nearly everybody back from that NC game team of last season (Reid made some big FTs but she was very limited last year), they will likely get a #2 seed instead of the #5 seed of last year, they have only been beaten at home by UConn in 2014, they have the 3d and 4th games at home, most of the players have memories of the biggest NCAA upset ever and a few others from 2013-14, and they have a penchant for going on runs in the NCAA tourney -- and yet they would have less than a 50% chance against Duke or Baylor? And a small chance against Stanford? Sagarin and Massey had Baylor by about 20 last year. For a bunch of teams, the situation completely changes once they get to the tourney.

No, I did not plunk down $100 on any fantastic odds of them beating Baylor last year, but I'm thinking that I might be able to make a killing this year on some poor saps for the 2014 tourney.

 

[Zorro]

Notre Dame 12%
Duke 42%
Baylor 46%
Stanford 38%
UNC 66%
Maryland 54%
South Carolina 62%
Tennessee 54%

Assuming they meet ND or Stanford in FF, others at Louisville

Uh, Phil, could you be a little more precise? Like to a couple more decimal points? (Actually, those probs look about right to me; maybe a little higher prob against ND.

 

[Zorro]

So wait a minute. The Cardinals have nearly everybody back from that NC game team of last season (Reid made some big FTs but she was very limited last year), they will likely get a #2 seed instead of the #5 seed of last year, they have only been beaten at home by UConn in 2014, they have the 3d and 4th games at home, most of the players have memories of the biggest NCAA upset ever and a few others from 2013-14, and they have a penchant for going on runs in the NCAA tourney -- and yet they would have less than a 50% chance against Duke or Baylor? And a small chance against Stanford? Sagarin and Massey had Baylor by about 20 last year. For a bunch of teams, the situation completely changes once they get to the tourney.

No, I did not plunk down $100 on any fantastic odds of them beating Baylor last year, but I'm thinking that I might be able to make a killing this year on some poor saps for the 2014 tourney.

Well, Dobbs, last year's Baylor-L'ville game was a freak; 60% 3 shooting, atypically bad games by Griner and Kim, etc. Prolly if they played 20 times Baylor wins 19. And this year while L'ville has only the one non-Husky loss, they haven't played that tough a level of competition either. I would give them a somewhat better chance against ND, but otherwise I think that Phil Phigger Philbert has it just about right. Will be very interesting to see how the Cards handle whatever fate throws at them.

 

[UcMiami]

zorro - but last year they were the underdog in all four of their last games and came out 3-1 on neutral courts. Jeff is very good at NCAA preparations and his team has last year to build on confidence wise. I would agree with the ND percentage because like Uconn they are a very complete offense and I don't think you can scheme well for them. Baylor ... very similar to last years team in their reliance on a single star and a couple of good support players. Stanford the same. I would put the Baylor and Stanford percentage at 50% at worst and maybe even 55% because of that.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Well, Dobbs, last year's Baylor-L'ville game was a freak; 60% 3 shooting, atypically bad games by Griner and Kim, etc. Prolly if they played 20 times Baylor wins 19. And this year while L'ville has only the one non-Husky loss, they haven't played that tough a level of competition either. I would give them a somewhat better chance against ND, but otherwise I think that Phil Phigger Philbert has it just about right. Will be very interesting to see how the Cards handle whatever fate throws at them.

Um, but did they also shoot 60% on 3s versus UTenn and Cal? Are we forgetting that they had a string of three upsets last year as a #5 seed? Do the Cards not have a coach who has helped get his team to two of the past 5 NC games, a feat shared by only Geno and Muffet?

Like I said, I see some great opportunity to fleece some lambs at tourney time this year.

 

[Phil]

So wait a minute. The Cardinals have nearly everybody back from that NC game team of last season (Reid made some big FTs but she was very limited last year), they will likely get a #2 seed instead of the #5 seed of last year, they have only been beaten at home by UConn in 2014, they have the 3d and 4th games at home, most of the players have memories of the biggest NCAA upset ever and a few others from 2013-14, and they have a penchant for going on runs in the NCAA tourney -- and yet they would have less than a 50% chance against Duke or Baylor? And a small chance against Stanford? Sagarin and Massey had Baylor by about 20 last year. For a bunch of teams, the situation completely changes once they get to the tourney.

No, I did not plunk down $100 on any fantastic odds of them beating Baylor last year, but I'm thinking that I might be able to make a killing this year on some poor saps for the 2014 tourney.

One could argue that the Duke numbers are inflated, because they are a season's worth of actual results, not fully reflecting the player losses.

 

[triaddukefan]

One could argue that the Duke numbers are inflated, because they are a season's worth of actual results, not fully reflecting the player losses.

One could also argue that Duke (post injuries) has 2 victories in the past week that are better than any that Louisville has all year.

 

[DobbsRover2]

One could also argue that Duke (post injuries) has 2 victories in the past week that are better than any that Louisville has all year.

Oh sure, but thinking that way Stanford's loss to Sags #40 USC in their last game probably means they should be a #10 seed and would lose to Louisville by about 20. And projected #4 seed PSU just got blitzed by 17 by Sags #58 OSU, so Louisville would pound them by 40.

This last game stuff all makes sense to me.

 

[Alydar]

Massey has these matchup predictions based on Louisville hosting the game:

duke - UL -1

tenn - UL -3

stanford - UL -2

sc - UL -4

BU - UL -1

WV - UL -5

unc - UL -7

nd - UL +12

ct - UL +18


With home court they are predicted to win over anyone but UConn and Tenn.

 

[triaddukefan]

Oh sure, but thinking that way Stanford's loss to Sags #40 USC in their last game probably means they should be a #10 seed and would lose to Louisville by about 20. And projected #4 seed PSU just got blitzed by 17 by Sags #58 OSU, so Louisville would pound them by 40.

This last game stuff all makes sense to me.

Just saying Louisville hasn't beaten a upper division team (outside of the AAC) in a major conference all season.... while Duke has... even through the season ending injuries.

I guess Im just a bitter Baylor fan.

 

[doggydaddy]

Massey has these matchup predictions based on Louisville hosting the game:

duke - UL -1

tenn - UL -3

stanford - UL -2

sc - UL -4

BU - UL -1

WV - UL -5

unc - UL -7

nd - UL +12

ct - UL +18


With home court they are predicted to win over anyone but UConn and Tenn.

Did you show that to Art??

 

[Zorro]

zorro - but last year they were the underdog in all four of their last games and came out 3-1 on neutral courts. Jeff is very good at NCAA preparations and his team has last year to build on confidence wise. I would agree with the ND percentage because like Uconn they are a very complete offense and I don't think you can scheme well for them. Baylor ... very similar to last years team in their reliance on a single star and a couple of good support players. Stanford the same. I would put the Baylor and Stanford percentage at 50% at worst and maybe even 55% because of that.

Yup. Jeff is very good at finding and exploiting other teams' weaknesses. His problem with UConn is that they just really don't have any weaknesses.

 

[Alydar]

Did you show that to Art??

LOL I made the argument that since the committee made this mess they need to factor in the home court advantage in their seeding. Surprisingly, Art wasn't persuaded.

 

[Phil]

I'm still working on this, but it should have winning probabilities for all combinations of the top 20 teams, with an option to pick, home, away or neutral court. You can also pick your own home court advantage, as well as play with standard deviations.

(I thought about removing the diagonal, but decided to leave it in. It doesn't make a lot of sense with an option other than neutral, but it serves as a reminder that you might not have chosen neutral.)

I'm not entirely clear that I've set the permissions correctly.

I'm trying to make it so you can edit cells B7,B8, and B9, but not B10

 

[UCONNfan1]

I'd prefer UCONN in Louisville. That would mean Tennessee has a tougher road and can possibly land Baylor or Stanford. I think both those schools could beat Tennessee more easily than Louisville, even tho Louisville is ranked higher...