I don't think the 4 team playoff will last long..

[Pudge]

It will be 8. The drumbeat has already started. The same student- athlete excuses will be raised. But, the gradual move towards 8 is in the works.

As for the G5, the P5 will resist. But at 8, I think they'll be under increasing pressure at inclusion. And 8 raises the $$$. And contrary to some comments, there are lots of reasons to think that the money if going up.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yes, I forgot to mention USC's win over ECU, though I was really just referencing the contenders in the conference. Admittedly, the Boise State win probably doesn't belong on the list with the others, but I'm not sure where you are drawing the "4 close wins over quality competition" figure from. Clemson, Wisconsin, East Carolina, West Virginia, and Kansas State all count as quality wins by my book.

Missouri going down to Indiana is really the conferences only blemish. Florida State beating Florida and Louisville beating Kentucky would be about as impactful to me as Alabama beating N.C. State.

It is 5 quality wins, which is impressive. But the primary reason that we are worshiping the SEC West is because we were told before the season started that we should worship the SEC West. Much of the SEC has not played anyone in the non-conference, and the few teams that have games left are likely to lose most of them. I do think the SEC is the best league, but the Pac 12 actually has more wins over P5 opponents than the SEC does, and played better mid-majors. Texas A&M was ranked off a win over South Carolina, which doesn't look that impressive any more, and wins over Lamar, Rice and SMU.

The non-SEC leagues bring it on themselves by playing so many FCS opponents. If they would take half those FCS games (the ACC has 14), and played P5 or quality mid-majors, the SEC's scheduling philosophy would stand out more.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It will be 8. The drumbeat has already started. The same student- athlete excuses will be raised. But, the gradual move towards 8 is in the works.

As for the G5, the P5 will resist. But at 8, I think they'll be under increasing pressure at inclusion. And 8 raises the $. And contrary to some comments, there are lots of reasons to think that the money if going up.

I think most people agree with this. The bowl attendance and ratings are going to drop significantly because all anyone will care about is the playoffs. It will be 8 teams sooner than later.

 

[junglehusky]

If it goes to 8 or even 6 ,and the BXII doesn't need to have a championship game (it sure sounds like it won't) , is realignment over?

 

[SubbaBub]

The above scenario would have happened with the old system, and likely will with the next one.

There are 120+ teams, and a twelve game schedule...it's not possible to get that totally correct. There is no answer that will get the best teams (and only the best teams) into the playoff.

This is why you must determine who isn't worthy, instead of who is, and why conference championships should matter above all. If Miss St wins the SEC championship, then I know Alabama isn't the best team in the country. They would have just spent an entire season determining that under a set of rules agreed to by everyone in the conference specifically set for that purpose.

If Miss St happened to lose to a middling team from the East division in the CCG then I might eliminate them from consideration, but they'd at least be on par with similar teams who also didn't win their conference outright.

What you'd see right away is conferences changing how their best team is determined to help their playoff chances. Which would be a good thing. It would favor smaller conferences/divisions of 9/10 with a round robin schedule if 6-8 auto bids were given.

This would help UConn find a seat.

The best thing the committee could do is give the slots to the 4 best Champs. It sticks it to independent ND as well.

We should all favor this.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

The move to an 8 team playoff will begin this season as there will likely be a 1 loss SEC team that will lose out on a bid to a 1 loss ND, PAC or XII team, which will not go over well. Plus, 8 teams gives enough wiggle room for the P5 to invite an undefeated non P5 team is such a team is undefeated and has a strong schedule (by excluding non P5 teams from their schedules, the P5 is already trying to close this loophole) because not doing so may get unwanted attention from the courts and/or Washington DC. P5 gives 5 auto bids and 3 wildcards and only adds a week to the schedule; but, it does dilute the bowls even further.

Ideally, the first round of the 8 team playoff is played at the home team of the higher seed. the semi-finals and final (3 games) would then be at a neutral site hosted by some rotation of bowls (Rose, Fiesta, Cotton, Sugar, Orange?)

 

[SubbaBub]

The composite computer rankings have it:

Mississippi
Mississippi State
Auburn
Alabama
Florida State
Georgia

So maybe the argument has some
validity?

This is a function of these teams not playing anyone and getting credit for playing mediocre teams in the SEC. While you can probably throw a hat over all 6 for who is better, they are not all that different from Oregon, Michigan St.

 

[whaler11]

This is a function of these teams not playing anyone and getting credit for playing mediocre teams in the SEC. While you can probably throw a hat over all 6 for who is better, they are not all that different from Oregon, Michigan St.

Oregon and Michigan State are probably the two most similar - but on a week to week basis the SEC in conference is playing much better competition.

 

[SubbaBub]

The move to an 8 team playoff will begin this season as there will likely be a 1 loss SEC team that will lose out on a bid to a 1 loss ND, PAC or XII team, which will not go over well. Plus, 8 teams gives enough wiggle room for the P5 to invite an undefeated non P5 team is such a team is undefeated and has a strong schedule (by excluding non P5 teams from their schedules, the P5 is already trying to close this loophole) because not doing so may get unwanted attention from the courts and/or Washington DC. P5 gives 5 auto bids and 3 wildcards and only adds a week to the schedule; but, it does dilute the bowls even further.

Ideally, the first round of the 8 team playoff is played at the home team of the higher seed. the semi-finals and final (3 games) would then be at a neutral site hosted by some rotation of bowls (Rose, Fiesta, Cotton, Sugar, Orange?)

Semis can't be held at the same site. They must be held on the same day to keep competitive fairness. You can't turn over a stadium that quickly. They need to be held on the same day within ~8 hr driving distance of the final, if they want people to attend both games.

This also helps the local tourism immensely, instead of 2-4 day visits they get a 8-10 day visit. Even if it's split between two cities they come out ahead.

 

[SubbaBub]

Oregon and Michigan State are probably the two most similar - but on a week to week basis the SEC in conference is playing much better competition.

No doubt it's the best, and the best team on paper will come from SEC, but compounding rep by playing only each other isn't a valid analysis to say 4 out of 5.

Much like the FIFA rankings give UEFA teams extra points just for playing UEFA teams, whether it's Andorra or Germany.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

No doubt it's the best, and the best team on paper will come from SEC, but compounding rep by playing only each other isn't a valid analysis to say 4 out of 5.

Much like the FIFA rankings give UEFA teams extra points just for playing UEFA teams, whether it's Andorra or Germany.

Agree. I am not sure how we determine the SEC is so much better that everyone else off of 7 games against P5 competition.

 

[Husky25]

I think most people agree with this. The bowl attendance and ratings are going to drop significantly because all anyone will care about is the playoffs. It will be 8 teams sooner than later.

Bowl attendance and ratings have been sinking for years. There's too many of them and other than the N.C. game, none mean anything. They are glorified exhibitions. Even the New Years Day games are background noise while American recovers from their collective hangover. Only fans of one of the teams and citizens in the game's locale care about non-N.C. bowl games.

 

[whaler11]

Quite a system they put together. Archie Manning now just out of the committee. Made so much sense having him on in the first place...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I don't think most fans of the schools even care about the non-major bowls, and top programs like vtech are even seeing fan fatigue for major bowls. The big chunk of viewers are gamblers, and gamblers would definitely flock to an 8 team tournament.

 

[whaler11]

The television ratings continue to be there. As long as they stay - the games stay.

As long as the schools/conferences agree to eat thousands of mandated tickets those games won't change much.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Semis can't be held at the same site. They must be held on the same day to keep competitive fairness. You can't turn over a stadium that quickly. They need to be held on the same day within ~8 hr driving distance of the final, if they want people to attend both games.

This also helps the local tourism immensely, instead of 2-4 day visits they get a 8-10 day visit. Even if it's split between two cities they come out ahead.

To be clear, I was referring to 3 or maybe 4 bowls rotating the 3 games among themselves. For example, in 1 year, the Orange (Miami) and Rose (LA) would host the semifinals on the same day and then the Cotton (Dallas) would have the final. The following year, it would Orange, Sugar and then Rose with the Championship. I do not think the NCAA really cares about people traveling (the host sites do).

And yes, it would be a nail in the Bowl's coffin. Only way for the Bowls outside of the Playoff rotation to survive would be to 1) have them in locations people want to travel to and 3) attract teams that travel.

 

[06029]

If it goes to 8 or even 6 ,and the BXII doesn't need to have a championship game (it sure sounds like it won't) , is realignment over?

Only if the inclusion becomes an automatic for a conference champion. Right now, a conference game championship is not required for inclusion. No conference has an automatic right to one of the 4 spots. This is why you are starting to hear from coaches that you need to win your conference to be included. They see the mess a 1-loss ND can cause if they get selected over say a 1 loss MI State or OSU (just an example, not arguing the merits of any 1 team). Dantonio has said the playoff participants need to be conference champions as determined in a championship game. Adazzio has said it, Sarkesian has said it and I'm sure there are others.

If they expand to 8 teams, then 5 will need to go to the conference champions, via a championship game, and that actually moves realignment along. The Big 12 will need to expand to have a game. ND may need to move to a conference. You will likely see a move by both Boise and BYU to get someplace.

 

[WhaleEER]

If it goes to 8 or even 6 ,and the BXII doesn't need to have a championship game (it sure sounds like it won't) , is realignment over?

The latest rumors that are swirling are that the Longhorn network is going to become the BIGXII network and that both ESPN and Texas want this. Texas finds running this costly and a pain in the ass. The long term results of this is supposed to be 4 power conferences with the ACC the one on the outs and has teams moving out. The reasoning for the ACC on the outs is several of their schools don't want to pay stipends and add the additional costs. If you want to poke around some of the other boards (Baylor, OK, etc.) feel free to play the rumor game.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The television ratings continue to be there. As long as they stay - the games stay.

As long as the schools/conferences agree to eat thousands of mandated tickets those games won't change much.

The ratings are so so and the attendance is declining. Counting on schools to continue to pour money down the drain on bowls no one cares about is a bad bet. If anything, the schools have shown a willingness to be ruthless in their pursuit of dollars.

 

[whaler11]

The ratings are so so and the attendance is declining. Counting on schools to continue to pour money down the drain on bowls no one cares about is a bad bet. If anything, the schools have shown a willingness to be ruthless in their pursuit of dollars.

Well I guess tell them because people keep creating new ones.

I don't know why the schools are willing to bleed on the guarantees but you don't see anyone turning down invites yet do you?

 

[06029]

Well I guess tell them because people keep creating new ones.

I don't know why the schools are willing to bleed on the guarantees but you don't see anyone turning down invites yet do you?

Generally, it is the conferences that take the cash hit rather than the schools. The BE/NBE was an exception. Also, since the conferences also get the big payday bowls, the net loss is not onerous. Finally, the coaches WANT the lower tier bowls because it aids recruiting (we were a bowl team, we can go to these bowls....) and they want the practice. The reps and coaching for the underclassman in the 4 weeks post end of season and bowl games are a significant advantage.

 

[freescooter]

I have always thought that they would have to go to 8 pretty quickly. Nobody watches if you end up with 3 SEC teams, Nobody watches if you end up with Mississippi or Mississippi St in the finals, for that matter. This is a made for tv movie, and now you are worried that George Clooney and Mark Harmon get killed off in the 1st scene leaving Charles During and Burt Young to save the day. It gets really ugly if say Mississippi wins the West and then gets beat by some weak sister Eastern team as happened to Oklahoma a few year ago. Do you really want to risk a Florida State Notre Dame round II? Or an all SEC final? last time that happened nobody watched. My guess long term, 5 P5 Champs and 3 at large. Maybe the AAC somehow leverages an auto bid, but I doubt it. That leave space for good Bosie/Notre Dame/BYU teams too without costing the Big 10 or SEC its change.

 

[Husky25]

I have always thought that they would have to go to 8 pretty quickly. Nobody watches if you end up with 3 SEC teams, Nobody watches if you end up with Mississippi or Mississippi St in the finals, for that matter. This is a made for tv movie, and now you are worried that George Clooney and Mark Harmon get killed off in the 1st scene leaving Charles During and Burt Young to save the day. It gets really ugly if say Mississippi wins the West and then gets beat by some weak sister Eastern team as happened to Oklahoma a few year ago. Do you really want to risk a Florida State Notre Dame round II? Or an all SEC final? last time that happened nobody watched. My guess long term, 5 P5 Champs and 3 at large. Maybe the AAC somehow leverages an auto bid, but I doubt it. That leave space for good Bosie/Notre Dame/BYU teams too without costing the Big 10 or SEC its change.

I think anywhere between 8 and 12 is workable, with 10 being the sweet spot. A bye goes to as many teams to get 8 into the Quarterfinals and seeds are reset after each round. This does a few things. It gives the higher seeds an appropriate advantage and it forces the bubble conversation down to double digit seeds. A 10 seed may beat a 3 seed, but probably won't beat the 3 and 1 in consecutive weeks on the road, especially if the 1 is well rested. Remember, it took about 40 years for a 6 seed (Read: 11 or 12)to win the Super Bowl.

It also gives the playoff committee flexibility on eligibility. The top G5 conference teams can easily be included (would occupy the lower seeds of course), plus at large bids for the 5CSMA. If the 5CSMA presidents and commissioners were smart (and I think some of them are. They are just outnumbered.), they would understand that "hoarding" the major bowls puts a cap on their earnings potential.

 

[whaler11]

Bowl attendance and ratings have been sinking for years. There's too many of them and other than the N.C. game, none mean anything. They are glorified exhibitions. Even the New Years Day games are background noise while American recovers from their collective hangover. Only fans of one of the teams and citizens in the game's locale care about non-N.C. bowl games.

Ratings are sinking...

They were only up 9% last year for BCS games last year.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/20...ip-cables-third-largest-audience-ever/227444/

 

[Husky25]

Ratings are sinking...

They were only up 9% last year for BCS games last year.

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/20...ip-cables-third-largest-audience-ever/227444/

Re-read my post. Comprehend it in its entirely (you missed this part particularly where I wrote, "Even the New Years Day games are background noise while American recovers from their its collective hangover."), THEN respond.

 

[whaler11]

Re-read my post. Comprehend it in its entirely (you missed this part particularly where I wrote, "Even the New Years Day games are background noise while American recovers from their its collective hangover."), THEN respond.

So comprending = reading your mind. Got it.

Overall they went from 5.7 million viewers on average to 5.6 million. Maybe that's sinking, but given the way they measure ratings and variables from matchups to weather that looks pretty steady.

Maybe all these games are going away like you guys predict - but for 2014 there are four more games - which is the exact opposite.

 

[Husky25]

So comprending = reading your mind. Got it.

Overall they went from 5.7 million viewers on average to 5.6 million. Maybe that's sinking, but given the way they measure ratings and variables from matchups to weather that looks pretty steady.

Maybe all these games are going away like you guys predict - but for 2014 there are four more games - which is the exact opposite.

Where are you reading my mind? You took that snip bit out of context. I explicitly stated that NYD games are on in the background. Besides 2011, I personally haven't paid attention to a NYD game since the 1998 Rose Bowl...pre-BCS. It was on, but that is hardly the point. I'm not alone.

Secondly, I am speaking to ALL Bowls. You reference BCS bowls. What's the year over year ratings of the Poinsettia Bowl, the Carquest Bowl, the Idaho Potato Bowl? Again I explicitly state that NYD bowls are in the background, but the people "watching" them are actually watching the inside of their eyelids.

Have a nice night, Whaler. Talk to you tomorrow.

 

[whaler11]

Where are you reading my mind? You took that snip bit out of context. I explicitly stated that NYD games are on in the background. Besides 2011, I personally haven't paid attention to a NYD game since the 1998 Rose Bowl...pre-BCS. It was on, but that is hardly the point. I'm not alone.

I haven't watched an NBA game in at least 5 years. I'm not alone. They still tripled their money.

The ratings are still there. The number of games is increasing. I'm merely pointing out the demise you and Waylon are prediciting is not borne out in the actions of those making investments in the games.

Hell ESPN owns half the games. They could be played on a soundstage - they exist as television programming. Not to get people to the Superdome to see CUSA play the Sun Belt.

 

[Jerry1714]

Where are you reading my mind? You took that snip bit out of context. I explicitly stated that NYD games are on in the background. Besides 2011, I personally haven't paid attention to a NYD game since the 1998 Rose Bowl...pre-BCS. It was on, but that is hardly the point. I'm not alone.

Secondly, I am speaking to ALL Bowls. You reference BCS bowls. What's the year over year ratings of the Poinsettia Bowl, the Carquest Bowl, the Idaho Potato Bowl? Again I explicitly state that NYD bowls are in the background, but the people "watching" them are actually watching the inside of their eyelids.

Have a nice night, Whaler. Talk to you tomorrow.

This is a comical back tracking and fabrication of what you wrote, also kinda painful to read.

Sometimes it is okay to admit you were wrong, which you were, and move on.

Do you have a diagram of the % of people actually watching and watching their eye lids? Do you have it by region? Love to see it

 

[whaler11]

Where are you reading my mind? You took that snip bit out of context. I explicitly stated that NYD games are on in the background. Besides 2011, I personally haven't paid attention to a NYD game since the 1998 Rose Bowl...pre-BCS. It was on, but that is hardly the point. I'm not alone.

Secondly, I am speaking to ALL Bowls. You reference BCS bowls. What's the year over year ratings of the Poinsettia Bowl, the Carquest Bowl, the Idaho Potato Bowl? Again I explicitly state that NYD bowls are in the background, but the people "watching" them are actually watching the inside of their eyelids.

Have a nice night, Whaler. Talk to you tomorrow.

I already gave you the numbers for all bowls. Jerry is correct it's pretty comical.