Hurley Should Have An Honest Talk With Bouk

[Lefty2one]

Scottie Barnes, another lottery pick in Bouk's range, currently has zero points in 13 minutes against Colorado. Hasn't attempted a shot.

He has four total points in the NCAA tournament so far. He has 8 turnovers to 4 assists.

 

[Chief00]

Scottie Barnes, another lottery pick in Bouk's range, currently has zero points in 13 minutes against Colorado. Hasn't attempted a shot.

He has four total points in the NCAA tournament so far. He has 8 turnovers to 4 assists.

Chief doesn’t usually pay much attention to mock drafts since there is disinformation put out there - hoping guys will drop in their laps. Have there been any studies showing how accurate they are?

 

[Lefty2one]

There's a million of them so no, but I highly doubt most journalists and bloggers are feeding misinformation.

 

[Chief00]

There's a million of them so no, but I highly doubt most journalists and bloggers are feeding misinformation.

Well, the only people who really know are scouts and teams. It’s not in their interest to be candid /honest about who they are drafting.

 

[storrsroars]

Well, the only people who really know are scouts and teams. It’s not in their interest to be candid /honest about who they are drafting.

fwiw, the 2020 consensus mocks had 9 of the top 10 going in top 10, 18 of the top 20 going within the top 20, and 25 of projected 30 1st round picks going in the first round. So in all, fairly accurate.

 

[Chief00]

fwiw, the 2020 consensus mocks had 9 of the top 10 going in top 10, 18 of the top 20 going within the top 20, and 25 of projected 30 1st round picks going in the first round. So in all, fairly accurate.

Is that a typical year? What are the consensus mock drafts? I am not doubting your post, I just don’t pay that much attention to mock drafts.

 

[storrsroars]

Is that a typical year? What are the consensus mock drafts? I am not doubting your post, I just don’t pay that much attention to mock drafts.

It's just a compilation of the most popular mocks.

Here's what nba.com had on the 2020 consensus mocks: Consensus Mock Draft: Picture of Top 3 picks becomes clear

Here's an aggregate from HoopsHype for 2021 that combines 8 different mock drafts into one consensus: 2021 aggregate NBA mock draft 3.0: Checking in before March Madness

 

[Hankster]

He's going to make a ton of money but he unfortunately lost himself a bunch of money recently.

I agree. Seems he went downhill slightly after his return. Seemed out of breath. Wanting to do to do much. Trying to carry the team on his back. That is what leaders do. I noticed he got picked a number of times. One time he was the picker, not the pickee. Gillipsie aka "The Pusher" put on a show. Aylaya(sp) of Maryland looked solid. It's what I noticed. The beginning of the year Bouk put on a show even in a loss. Then he got hurt. Even at halftime it was said "somebody has to tell Bouk he cannot dribble through players". I don't know I have mixed emotions.

 

[Kolumbo]

Scott says he'd love to see Bouk back but he has to go, although his name would end up in the rafters if he came back. Also comments about next year's team.

 

[Candyman]

I would like to revisit this narrative that Bouk is injury prone, because, I feel this is an unfair or skewed narrative of him. Since being at Uconn, he has had one injury that sidelined him in 2 full seasons, and that was a hyperextended elbow which required surgery to remove bone spurs. The injury itself was not due to him driving and absorbing contact, which would be a concern had he gotten injured that way, but it was a result of someone maliciously (debatable) diving on his outstretched arm. I don't care who you are, but every single person would have gotten injured on that play, even if you are the most durable basketball player in the world. The surgery is debatable, but who knows what was going on in there from previous years that they discovered when they did the MRI.
Prior to that, his only injury that we are aware of was the torn MCL in highschool, which I will point out, he recovered exceptionally well from, and has never had a knee issue since then, which speaks to his durability in that sense.
So, I question this "injury prone" narrative. Surely we can't say cramps are a factor of being injury prone, especially considering the only time he cramped up was after coming back from injury and trying to go full speed, and not properly hydrating before a game, combined with still getting back in gameshape.

Someone, please point out something different to me, or I'm going with the narrative that he is not injury prone.

Torn MCI and missed alot of time in HS plus his elbow in college. Maybe not injury prone but def with the way he plays and his body type he can easily get injured again. Maybe for me and you, who will not be making millions of dollars next year, thats a risk worth taking but for a person who throws his body around like Bouk does it could spell disaster. This is why he should absolutely go pro.

 

[Psolo12]

The fact that Frank Ntilikina is STILL getting chances for the Knicks is all you really need to know.

I like your takes, you should post more to drown out some of these morons.

 

[J187Money]

You are assuming a trajectory with no dips/events in it and various conclusions that are not guaranteed. Respectfully, you need to rewatch the last three games and everything that’s happened since he arrived at UConn. Chief has always been a big James supporter, particularly in September of 2019, when many here telling him to go pro now weren’t supporting him.
After-all he was the first dam break recruiting kid, so he will always be special to me.
To Chief, this is a no brainer. Another year is in his best interest as a person and Chief would be pushing him out the door next spring after a consistent year of growth and success as a person. Quick money is often a trap. James needs to do long term investing in himself.

I am a wonk about many things - but not about the specificity about what a particular basketball player can or cannot do.

There is one thing that matters for James from a financial standpoint - is he a good enough player in the NBA to garner a second contract? Or not?

So the paths are:

1) He is a good enough NBA player and it doesn't matter if he leaves now or next year - so leaving now just gets him to the 2nd contract sooner.
2) He isn't a good enough NBA player no matter when he leaves - so he is a one contract guy - and then it doesn't really matter.
3) He needs more development - and the right place for that is in the NBA - in which case he should probably leave.
4) He needs more development and Hurley is the right one to develop him - in which case he should probably stay.

I'm only looking at this from the "how does JB maximize his lifetime earnings"...and to me, it would seem that going pro now probably does that. Of course - so much of that is dependent on what team drafts him, in which slot, and who his coaches and teammates are - so that's a risk of course. But if he is a roughly a #10 pick this year and is roughly a #10 pick next year, he just wasted time, from a financial perspective.

People stay for other reasons - like the Joachim Noah Florida team that ran it back, etc. I would love if he loved UCONN so much he wanted to run it back.

But I'm a finance guy - and the math says go. To the extent that I was on "Team James" and had access to someone with better BB chops than I, I would listen to the alternative case, but I don't see it. We just don't know that another year with Hurley helps him at all. We don't have enough data to make that case, IMHO.

 

[RayRay]

Torn MCI and missed alot of time in HS plus his elbow in college. Maybe not injury prone but def with the way he plays and his body type he can easily get injured again. Maybe for me and you, who will not be making millions of dollars next year, thats a risk worth taking but for a person who throws his body around like Bouk does it could spell disaster. This is why he should absolutely go pro.

Absolutely, I’m not arguing he shouldn’t go. I’m pro Bouk going to the nba this year. I was just trying to make the point that people are pulling from a small sample and using recency bias to say he’s injury prone.

 

[olehead]

I am a wonk about many things - but not about the specificity about what a particular basketball player can or cannot do.

There is one thing that matters for James from a financial standpoint - is he a good enough player in the NBA to garner a second contract? Or not?

So the paths are:

1) He is a good enough NBA player and it doesn't matter if he leaves now or next year - so leaving now just gets him to the 2nd contract sooner.
2) He isn't a good enough NBA player no matter when he leaves - so he is a one contract guy - and then it doesn't really matter.
3) He needs more development - and the right place for that is in the NBA - in which case he should probably leave.
4) He needs more development and Hurley is the right one to develop him - in which case he should probably stay.

I'm only looking at this from the "how does JB maximize his lifetime earnings"...and to me, it would seem that going pro now probably does that. Of course - so much of that is dependent on what team drafts him, in which slot, and who his coaches and teammates are - so that's a risk of course. But if he is a roughly a #10 pick this year and is roughly a #10 pick next year, he just wasted time, from a financial perspective.

People stay for other reasons - like the Joachim Noah Florida team that ran it back, etc. I would love if he loved UCONN so much he wanted to run it back.

But I'm a finance guy - and the math says go. To the extent that I was on "Team James" and had access to someone with better BB chops than I, I would listen to the alternative case, but I don't see it. We just don't know that another year with Hurley helps him at all. We don't have enough data to make that case, IMHO.

It was nice that his family could make provisions for Joakim. Remember his Mom was an European top model and his Dad was Yannick Noah, who had a nice career in the 80', maybe 90's as a top 10-15 tennis player.

 

[olehead]

A good chunk of the Yard has in their head a completely fictional vision of the NBA.

Which franchises are you speaking of that do not, and I won't say "babysit", I"ll use the NBA term, develop their guys? I can speak of the teams I'm familiar with, most have the ability to provide security to "babysit" if necessary, but that's ridiculous.
You should be incentivized to embrace development as a 1st year or as a younger player, and I believe most are by the opportunity to carve out a career in the NBA. Those that screw around and are marginal NBA talents wash out. I mean look at Waiters. He is an ok player, not as good as he thinks he is, but he's on the fringes now because his reputation over the years has taken a hit, coupled with ok ability, ok production. I think I last saw him at the end of the Laker's rotation in last summer's bubble.
Not so long ago, Dion Waiters was considered perhaps the steal of the NBA draft, I don't recall where he went in the draft, but he was a lottery pick. Now he's hanging on for his NBA life.

 

[olehead]

I am not so sure that’s a lock ?
Every year guys leave schools due to being in the lottery that turn out to be late 1st or second round picks.

So what sources do you have that generate your uncertainty about him falling out of the top 14?

 

[Chief00]

Going pro a year sooner, the draft slot and 3 year money aren’t as important as building the foundation to be successful long term. I wish James long term success and happiness.

 

[J187Money]

Going pro a year sooner, the draft slot and 3 year money aren’t as important as building the foundation to be successful long term. I wish James long term success and happiness.

I don't think anyone is disagreeing about a foundation, but the question is - does James staying at UCONN matter in terms of that development? I don't know enough about basketball development to answer that question. As I said - we don't have enough sample size with Hurley to know.

Also - and let's be honest - we are still in a pandemic. What if some new variant drags this thing on another year and he gets another stunted college season? As much as I would love for him to stay (for me as a fan), he should go (for him).

 

[nomar]

Has Glen Miller shown him the course catalog yet? Could be the clincher.

As much as I'd love him to stay and understand the arguments why he should do that, if I was counseling him, and the info we were getting is that he's going in the mid-to-late lottery, I couldn't in good conscience tell him to stay.

 

[Chief00]

Has Glen Miller shown him the course catalog yet? Could be the clincher.

As much as I'd love him to stay and understand the arguments why he should do that, if I was counseling him, and the info we were getting is that he's going in the mid-to-late lottery, I couldn't in good conscience tell him to stay.

Chief had trouble finding that catalog when I was a student. Of course, if that’s not your thing, go to UK for a cup of coffee, then The League in the Spring.

 

[Mack]

If I was a NBA team I would be concerned about his Longevity and the fact he needs to bulk up as he always seems to be banged up. Also he needs work on his defense

 

[storrsroars]

Latest mocks I've seen, updated this week, still have Bouk around 11/12.

What I find interesting is that neither Champagnie twin is in the top 100 on mocks that list both rounds plus others. Both have announced they'll test the waters, if only for feedback, but I'm interested in what NBA scouts see in Bouk that they don't see in the twins.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

There is really no good reason for Bouknight to come back to UConn other than it’s good for UConn.

He’s going to be a fine NBA player, potentially a high end NBA player. He will get all the training and development he needs in the league right now to get to that eventual level, as long as he wants it bad enough.

The idea that he’d be better trained with another year in college than going pro is pretty asinine, in my opinion. If he were a borderline undrafted player, then that’s a different story. But we are talking about a lottery pick level kid.

When you are a lottery pick, your team invests a lot into you to make you worth the pick. If you are a 2nd rounder/undrafted, it’s essentially taking a flyer in the league and you’re fighting to even be on the roster.

 

[billybud]

Scottie Barnes, another lottery pick in Bouk's range, currently has zero points in 13 minutes against Colorado. Hasn't attempted a shot.

He has four total points in the NCAA tournament so far. He has 8 turnovers to 4 assists.

Scottie didn't score much but he hit !00% of his shots...and he was a major reason that the Buff's offense was stalled...he played good defense....Buffalo was coming off of a 96-73 dismantling of Georgetown with 3 point bombers and Ham had him using his 6'9 length to disrupt three point shooters (Colorado went 6-24...24%).....

He did have 5 assists and 3 steals...his passing vision was pretty good.

But...I do agree that he doesn't look like a lottery pick..and I don't think that he will be one...He's just a kid one season out of high school..and it shows.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Scottie didn't score much but he hit !00% of his shots...and he was a major reason that the Buff's offense was stalled...he played good defense....Buffalo was coming off of a 96-73 dismantling of Georgetown with 3 point bombers and Ham had him using his 6'9 length to disrupt three point shooters (Colorado went 6-24...24%).....

He did have 5 assists and 3 steals...his passing vision was pretty good.

But...I do agree that he doesn't look like a lottery pick..and I don't think that he will be one...He's just a kid one season out of high school..and it shows.

I think it'll be pretty stunning if he's not. He's gonna have to kill a drifter or something to fall out of the lottery. And it's gonna have to be a drifter that people really like.