I haven't posted anything about our coaching change, but this list of candidates isn't very inspiring that we are improving our situation. We're going to spend millions of dollars to get rid of a coach who bleeds blue, won a national championship with a team few coaches would have won with, and who brought in a noted recruiter who hasn't had a chance to make an impact.
Let's do it.
Ollie's NBA credentials, reputation, and early NCAA title make a pretty good story. He parlayed his act to be a top 5 finalist on the list of numerous top 5 star talents and mostly swung and missed. Now we confirm he was likely up against a stacked deck with sneaker money and was still close selling a marginal conference to boot.
To quote Jim Calhoun, "You're not that stupid are you."
We beat Louisville for several recruits the last few years. Let that sink in. Either the issue was only prevalent at the top 5* kids, or...
"A pretty good story" was what we had 2 years ago. Now we have a very bad story. And bad stories are hard to improve, because perception is reality in recruiting and...
It's true that in the past couple of years he underachieved with the players he did have, we got our butts kicked solidly a bunch, a group of kids jumped ship, and, we slid towards the lower middle of a so/so conference. It's true that several players did not improve in their time at UConn.
Obviously this is why we have a bad story now, coinciding with terrible timing of our new conference affiliation. This year was the worst year UConn's had by KenPom standards (only goes back to '02). We knew the bigs would take a step back, but it's just not good enough. That's all you can say. Any qualms about lack of talent is on him since he's been here over 4 years.
It's also true that the cupboard isn't bare, the team visibly improved over the last 10 games...
Wait. What? We went 3-7 in the AAC over the last 10 games (including 5 home games) with the average loss coming by 11 points. Let me remind you to your point that we had more top 100 recruits in our starting lineup during that stretch than the rest of the entire league has COMBINED. The wins were over East Carolina (300+ KenPom), South Florida (270+ KenPom), and home against non-NCAA-first-round-NIT-loser Temple.
individual players visibly improved, Ollie made many changes to improve strength and conditioning, hired the talent he felt would recruit, and, we had 2 top 100 recruits coming in. Ollie never got to coach the back court of Adams and Gilbert over a season, and improvements in recruiting, conditioning, and the on court performance of freshman are the type of things that improve gradually.
0 top 75 recruits coming in. And the likelihood of landing more following our disaster season is even lower. The backcourt of Adams and Gilbert wasn't working when they were on the court together as neither is a weapon off the ball, because Ollie recruited guards who can't shoot in today's basketball world. He even recruited another one (MAL), who de-committed because of actions (and non-actions) of Ollie.
I don't know what the kids really think in the locker room, nor what the dirty laundry really is, and this might make a difference, but I personally would have given him another year. He's proven an upside and there is no reason I have seen so far that proves he is not capable of finding his way back.
There is turmoil whenever you change coaches: guys transferring out, decommitting, new coach bringing some of his guys with him, etc. If we had another disastrous Ollie year, and THEN a transition year, we might miss the tournament 4 years in a row and the first year of recruiting by new coach is 3 years removed from the tournament. Your coaching options will be worse and the narrative of the team will be cemented to the point that even the excitement over a new hire will not be enough to rejuvenate recruiting and overcome negative recruiting. The risk is too high. If we bring in a new coach now and miss tournament, at least the coach will have had a chance to do some recruiting before then and bring in a circumstances-changing class with the coaching change momentum.
Only one program was as bad as we were this year the year before and made the NCAA tournament at large this year, and they fired their coach and brought in 2 5* recruits with the new guy to do it. Ollie would not have been able to turn us around as far as we'd need to improve to get there with the recruits coming in.
Also, as you said, the talent cupboard isn't bare entirely AND the three most key pieces are incentivized to stay this year in particular: Gilbert coming off injury, Adams entering senior year but not graduate eligible (far as I know), Wilson coming off transfer redshirt.
With that said, my main complaint is that we are not turning to an obvious improvement. Watching URI since Hurley's name has been put forth has not been impressive in terms of likelihood of improvement. I see him coaching players who try to make an individual play, then pass it to the next guy who tries the same. Today some hero shots went in. Essentially I watched a guard oriented team required to play the same as UConn plays now because they haven't got a good enough front court just like UConn now. What makes anybody think he would do better than Ollie recruiting or coaching? The retreads mentioned have never recruited any more top kids to their programs than Ollie has, and are not with their recent schools because of their own shortcomings.
I agree that Hurley isn't the perfect candidate. He's had good defensive teams but none of his team's have been incredible on offense. But I also don't think we would be able to find the perfect candidate by waiting another year and Hurley is a program builder. You don't take 2 different schools from the dumps to the NCAA tournament by accident. And perhaps our fundamental disagreement is that you think Ollie can turn the negative tide and I think we're in the midst of a downward spiral.
I think we are going to rue this change. Maybe that search firm might still come in handy. The program needs to have 2-3 kids on the roster with legitimate NBA talent. Find me somebody sitting on an NBA bench as an assistant that could excite prospects with NBA talent.
Just venting but I don't think the grass is greener and I think Ollie would make it back like Tiger because Ollie is a competitor.
If Ollie were still a competitor (or was good enough at coaching), we would have done better this year. He knew this year was a make or break year, and instead we were garbage and embarrassing despite having the most healthy talent in the conference.