How Top 16 Has Fared / Bracketology

[Vowelguy]

Here's the committee top 16 (based on games through 2/27), and how they've done since. And I've added the 5 teams that I think have a shot to break into the top 16. Oregon, for one, will surely fall out, so at least one team will enter.

Notes

• I'm giving the PAC title to Stanford.
• Card has been so impressive in the PAC tourney I think them taking over as #1 is possible
• Note TX A&M was ahead of So Carolina before beating them last Sunday. I think they remain there.
• SC & NC St are a tossup at 4/5, but give NCSt the edge based on the win.
• Kentucky & Arkansas probably hang on despite upset losses because no compelling team to take over. But B12 & B10 tourneys to come.

Right now I'd say
A: UConn/Stan | Louisville | Georgia | Arkansas
B: Stan/UConn | Baylor | Indiana | Kentucky
C: Texas A& M | Maryland | Arizona | W Virginia
D: No Caro St | SoCarolina | UCLA | Tenn

 

[Kaizen]

I will predict the NC is between UConn and Stamford, just my opinion.

 

[Lorcan]

I'd definitely agree that Stanford winning by 20 against UCLA in the title game gives them a statement for the #1 Overall. In any case, I think we can expect to see UConn and Stanford on opposite sides of the bracket.

Given the losses by Kentucky, Oregon, and Arkansas, I definitely think Missouri State moves up into the Top 16, followed by Rutgers, although Rutgers is hurt by lack of games.

 

[Heytherego]

UConn vs Louisville/ark/Georgia worries me I’d rather be with Baylor and company in that bracket

 

[Lorcan]

UConn vs Louisville/ark/Georgia worries me I’d rather be with Baylor and company in that bracket

I think given how flawed Baylor has been this season, a lot of teams would prefer them to say, Louisville, NC State etc.

 

[bballnut90]

I think given how flawed Baylor has been this season, a lot of teams would prefer them to say, Louisville, NC State etc.

Louisville looks far more flawed than Baylor IMO. They have no quality wins and lost to Florida State, plus close calls to Wake, Miami and Virginia Tech. Eye test doesn't look like a strong team either.

Baylor has wins over West Virginia and South Florida and another big game tomorrow vs. West Virginia. They've also handily beat all conference foes aside from the early loss to Iowa State and have Nalyssa Smith playing as well as anyone in the country right now. Neither is the most proven squad, but Baylor scares me a lot more than Louisville does if I'm a 1 seed.

 

[chrissaran]

Baylor is going to be a tough out in The Tournament. They haven't gotten as much notice this year, but still a very dangerous team.

 

[stamfordhusky]

I will predict the NC is between UConn and Stamford, just my opinion.

I think it's very unlikely that Stanford, after winning four straight games and their league title, would drop behind a team that was ranked 5th last week. More likely is that Stanford will move up to #1.

 

[Vowelguy]

I think it's very unlikely that Stanford, after winning four straight games and their league title, would drop behind a team that was ranked 5th last week. More likely is that Stanford will move up to #1.

?

 

[thatguyed]

I will predict the NC is between UConn and Stamford, just my opinion.

Stamford is already in CT, so I like the odds. ;>)

 

[Vowelguy]

Bumping this since many many people seem to be forgetting what has happened since the last committee rankings.

Eg , it is marginal at best for SC to move ahead of Texas AM based on the last week.

 

[Plebe]

Bumping this since many many people seem to be forgetting what has happened since the last committee rankings.

Eg , it is marginal at best for SC to move ahead of Texas AM based on the last week.

I kinda think the results since last rankings, between TAMU's win over SC countered by the SEC tournament games, will roughly cancel each other out as it pertains to the relative strength of TAMU's and SC's resumes. Hard for me to imagine SC leaping over.

 

[Vowelguy]

I kinda think the results since last rankings, between TAMU's win over SC countered by the SEC tournament games, will roughly cancel each other out as it pertains to the relative strength of TAMU's and SC's resumes. Hard for me to imagine SC leaping over.

Absolutely agree. TAMU is a 1. SC/NCS is the debate.

 

[visitingcock]

1	1	Stanford	Pac-12	25-2	13-1	6-1	6-0	0-0
2	2	UConn	Big East	23-1	10-1	2-0	11-0	0-0
3	3	South Carolina	SEC	22-4	7-3	5-0	10-1	0-0
4	4	Baylor	Big 12	21-2	10-1	0-0	11-1	0-0
5	5	Maryland	Big Ten	21-2	9-1	2-1	10-0	0-0
6	6	Louisville	ACC	23-3	7-1	3-1	13-1	0-0
7	8	NC State	ACC	20-2	6-2	3-0	11-0	0-0
8	7	UCLA	Pac-12	16-5	5-2	3-1	8-2	0-0
9	9	Indiana	Big Ten	18-4	8-2	0-0	10-2	0-0
10	10	Oregon	Pac-12	13-8	6-2	0-2	7-4	0-0
11	11	Rutgers	Big Ten	14-3	5-2	0-0	9-1	0-0
12	12	Texas A&M	SEC	23-2	9-1	1-1	13-0	0-0
13	13	Georgia	SEC	20-6	8-2	2-1	10-3	0-0
14	15	Tennessee	SEC	16-7	4-4	1-1	11-2	0-0
15	14	Arizona	Pac-12	16-5	4-3	1-1	11-1	0-0
16	16	Gonzaga	WCC	21-3	8-2	4-1	9-0	0-0

 

[Skeets]

I like our chances. It may boil down to UCONN playing their "A" game versus not playing their "A" game. I don't pay too much attention to the brackets. Sooner or later you got to go up against the top teams. Knock them off and advance, otherwise start talking about next year. IMO UCONN is number #1 until some other team proves otherwise.

 

[bbsamjj]

That's a very helpful chart vowelguy.

I think it's helpful to break up into brackets:

1 seeds:
This is a contest between 5 teams: UConn, Stanford, A&M, NC State, SC. MD/Baylor may have had a chance if one of the top 5 teams slipped up in conference tourney, but they have not. Most people think the final 1 seed is a tossup between Nc State and SC; regardless, they are likely slated to meet in the elite 8.

2 seeds:
starting off NC State or South Carolina.
Likely: MD, Baylor, Louisville
Maybe, if MD/Baylor slip up: UCLA, Georgia

3 seeds:
Likely: UCLA, Georgia, Indiana, AZ or TN

4 seeds:
Likely: AZ or TN; KY, Arkansas; and then...
Gonzaga?
West Virginia? (if they can beat Baylor tonight/in B12 tourney, I think they lock in a 4 seed)
Michigan/RU?
Missouri St?

I honestly think Oregon has done nothing to deserve a top 4 seed.

 

[jaydee602]

That's a very helpful chart vowelguy.

I think it's helpful to break up into brackets:

1 seeds:
This is a contest between 5 teams: UConn, Stanford, A&M, NC State, SC. MD/Baylor may have had a chance if one of the top 5 teams slipped up in conference tourney, but they have not. Most people think the final 1 seed is a tossup between Nc State and SC; regardless, they are likely slated to meet in the elite 8.

2 seeds:
starting off NC State or South Carolina.
Likely: MD, Baylor, Louisville
Maybe, if MD/Baylor slip up: UCLA, Georgia

3 seeds:
Likely: UCLA, Georgia, Indiana, AZ or TN

4 seeds:
Likely: AZ or TN; KY, Arkansas; and then...
Gonzaga?
West Virginia? (if they can beat Baylor tonight/in B12 tourney, I think they lock in a 4 seed)
Michigan/RU?
Missouri St?

I honestly think Oregon has done nothing to deserve a top 4 seed.

Nice job! This is very logical bracket breakdown of the chart.

 

[LoboDays]

This is the first year since I can remember that 12 teams ( MAYBE 16) could wind up in the FF. Gonna be a fun tourney to watch.

 

[southie]

Louisville looks far more flawed than Baylor IMO. They have no quality wins and lost to Florida State, plus close calls to Wake, Miami and Virginia Tech. Eye test doesn't look like a strong team either.

Baylor has wins over West Virginia and South Florida and another big game tomorrow vs. West Virginia. They've also handily beat all conference foes aside from the early loss to Iowa State and have Nalyssa Smith playing as well as anyone in the country right now. Neither is the most proven squad, but Baylor scares me a lot more than Louisville does if I'm a 1 seed.

Well, Louisville more than held their own against a potential #1 national seed in NC State yesterday losing by a bucket. Which game/performance (win or loss) on Baylor's schedule is comparable to that?

 

[bballnut90]

Well, Louisville more than held their own against a potential #1 national seed in NC State yesterday losing by a bucket. Which game/performance (win or loss) on Baylor's schedule is comparable to that?

They don't have one but their overall body of work is more impressive IMO. Louisville doesn't have a single win over a ranked team. Yeah they played NC State close but IMO both neither team looked at all impressive and NC State has had several close calls against unranked foes, so I dont see it as a reason to fear Louisville. Dana Evans hasn't been playing well as of late and Van Lith/Cochran both seem to have hit the freshman wall.

Baylor on the other hand has 3 wins vs ranked foes and is on a 14 game win streak which they've waltzed through. They also look much improved as the season continues. Queen Egbo is playing at a much higher level now, Carrington has settled into her role and Ursin/Richards are fully healthy and playing great. Big 12 isn't the strongest conference but they're taking care of business and appear to be peaking at the right time which is dangerous if I'm a 1 seed and they're in my region.

 

[Vowelguy]

Updated table

Gonzaga-BYU tonight, then BiG quarterfinals on Thursday

 

[Vowelguy]

Updated.
Thursday games in Blue
Friday games in Green

 

[Vowelguy]

Updated
Friday games in Green
Saturday games in Blue

WV & MoSt only teams with a legit chance at moving up to a #4 seed. And KY and Ark almost surely hold on to their #4s.

 

[eebmg]

How high could Iowa go if they beat MD tomorrow?

 

[Vowelguy]

How high could Iowa go if they beat MD tomorrow?

no higher than #5
probably #6