How This Week's Depth Chart Was Assembled

[UConnDan97]

We probably would have a hard time beating that team. The team I listed is the NFL draft picks from UConn since 2007:

1. Deon Anderson 1 P5 offer
2. Tyvon Branch UConn offer only
3. Donald Thomas Walk-on
4. Donald Brown 1 P5 offer
5. Darius Bulter UConn offer only
6. William Beatty UConn offer only
7. Cody Brown 2 P5 offers
8. Marcus Easley Walk-on
9. Robert McClain UConn offer only
10. Anthony Sherman 1 P5 offer
11. Lawrence Wilson UConn offer only
12. Jordan Todman 2 P5 offers
13. Greg Lloyd Jr. 1 G5 offer
14. Kendall Reyes UConn offer only
15. Dwayne Gratz 2 P5 offers
16. Sio Moore 1 G5 offer
17. Blidi Wrey-Wilson 3 G5 offers
18. Trevardo Williams UConn offer only
19. Ryan Griffin 1 FCS offer
20. Shamar Stephen UConn offer only
21. Yawin Smallwood 1 G5 offer
22. Byron Jones UConn offer only
23. Geremey Davis 5 G5 offers
24. Obi Melonfonwu UConn offer only

I agree with Pudge. When you recruit the Northeast, like UConn does (and 18/24 of UConn's NFL draft picks are from the Northeast), many kids are overlooked and/or need to be developed. I'm not surprised by this year's 2 deep roster and their offers as this is typical for UConn. The challenge when you recruit at UConn is that you need to recruit athletes that you can project and develop. I think Diaco recruited prototypes and didn't focus on athleticism and speed and it doesn't appear that he was that good at development, so we may have some roster problems. As you can see from the above list, Edsall knows how to recruit at UConn.

That's not a team.

So what you've done is you've cherry-picked 2-star athletes that met your criteria. Which is exactly what the star system is NOT intended to do. It's not an absolute value of a player. It's a probability of a player's ceiling.

Plenty of folks have already done this exercise, so don't worry about doing it yourself. But you can pull the data of 5-star, 4-star, 3-star, 2-star, and no star NFL players. From a probability standpoint, which numbers do you think come out on top? Here is a chart from a few years back (SBNation) that gave the percentages for each star rating to the NFL:

How 2-star recruits get drafted

"For those who don't like percentages, here are some more intuitive breakdowns based on the numbers from the entire 2014 draft:

• A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
• A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
• A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
• A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).

And if the two-stars didn't already have enough going against them, keep in mind that the data set of two-star and unrated players includes three kickers and punters (who are rarely rated above two stars), two players who originally went to college on basketball scholarships and later picked up football, and a player from Canada (foreign players are almost never rated)."

Is the star system an absolute? Nope. But it's a pretty decent indicator of probability...

 

[whaler11]

Obviously there will be good players - to win you need 50 of them at the same time.

To say - this guy didn’t get any offers and he is good is great.

You can’t have 80 guys with no offers and have a good team. You need quality and depth everywhere.

 

[BlueMAB]

We probably would have a hard time beating that team. The team I listed is the NFL draft picks from UConn since 2007:

1. Deon Anderson 1 P5 offer
2. Tyvon Branch UConn offer only
3. Donald Thomas Walk-on
4. Donald Brown 1 P5 offer
5. Darius Bulter UConn offer only
6. William Beatty UConn offer only
7. Cody Brown 2 P5 offers
8. Marcus Easley Walk-on
9. Robert McClain UConn offer only
10. Anthony Sherman 1 P5 offer
11. Lawrence Wilson UConn offer only
12. Jordan Todman 2 P5 offers
13. Greg Lloyd Jr. 1 G5 offer
14. Kendall Reyes UConn offer only
15. Dwayne Gratz 2 P5 offers
16. Sio Moore 1 G5 offer
17. Blidi Wrey-Wilson 3 G5 offers
18. Trevardo Williams UConn offer only
19. Ryan Griffin 1 FCS offer
20. Shamar Stephen UConn offer only
21. Yawin Smallwood 1 G5 offer
22. Byron Jones UConn offer only
23. Geremey Davis 5 G5 offers
24. Obi Melonfonwu UConn offer only

Donald Brown had an offer from Iowa as CB.

1. FB
2. CB/S
3. OL
4. RB
5. CB
6. OL
7. DE
8. WR
9. CB
10. FB
11. LB
12. RB
13. LB
14. DE
15. CB
16. LB
17. CB
18. DE
19. TE
20. DL
21. LB
22. CB/S
23. WR
24. S


We'd kill that team. They only have 2 OL, 2 FBs 2 RBs 2 WRs and ZERO QBs.

Hard to win with 8 players on offense. They'd have a hell of a defense though.

 

[UConnJim]

Donald Brown had an offer from Iowa as CB.

1. FB
2. CB/S
3. OL
4. RB
5. CB
6. OL
7. DE
8. WR
9. CB
10. FB
11. LB
12. RB
13. LB
14. DE
15. CB
16. LB
17. CB
18. DE
19. TE
20. DL
21. LB
22. CB/S
23. WR
24. S


We'd kill that team. They only have 2 OL, 2 FBs 2 RBs 2 WRs and ZERO QBs.

Hard to win with 8 players on offense. They'd have a hell of a defense though.

UConn has won many games without a QB.

 

[RSTuthill]

With only a slight amount of snark and only a modicum of silliness, I find this discussion to be fascinating. Great stuff. I think if the analysis was extended to other AAC teams it would be equally fascinating and would shed more light. This thread should be on the short list for nomination as Thread of the Year.

 

[BlueMAB]

UConn has won many games without a QB.

But not without an OL

 

[UConnDan97]

But not without an OL

We've operated for 5 straight years without an OL....I'm not sure you're strengthening our point here...

 

[BlueMAB]

We've operated for 5 straight years without an OL....I'm not sure you're strengthening our point here...

"WIN" was the operative word in that back and forth. Not "operate".

 

[Pudge]

I was waiting for this post.

Your supposition is that in today's Twitter age, kids are hiding the fact that they are receiving P5 offers?

Also, it's odd that the recruiting services seem to be able to cover BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers and Penn State, but it's solely UConn commits that are vastly under covered?

Also, for as much as I battle @Stairmaster regarding Ollie issues, his football posts are spot on, how was his post negative? It was actually a great post, that provided us with a really in depth look as to why were in our current situation.

All you need to know is what our record has been the past 5 seasons and then look at what talent was on the field. You're arguing in the face of logic.

Sorry ...

I am a believer in the EFFICIENT MARKET THEORY on the stock market. Not College Football recruiting. There is too much bias and too scanty information - not perfectly known. Simply not statistically factual. Like One Standard Deviation to Two Standard Deviation in contrast to stocks.

But, you simply have not done much thought about what is going on here. NO. Not all these kids are going to combines. NO. Not BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, Penn State are looking at the wide swath of kids in the Northeastern US (besides PA & NJ) that are in our core market. (BC and Syracuse are still somewhat limited in their hunt) NO. None of these programs look at major pockets. Kids like Jeffreys, Maloney, Pace ... probably got no more than a brush from those 5 programs. PLUS ... this analysis ignores the fact that WE often have these kids committed by June 1 of their rising Senior year. Guess what? Edsall has regularly not pulled down Line (either Offense or Defense) until he has seen them play a few games of their senior year.

The Offers - even in the Twitter world are not perfect knowledge. The ratings are done by guys like Mike Farrell.

Then .... watch: We ARE bringing in 4-7 guys visiting from FL (maybe GA) in the last two weeks of January. This was done by Terry Richardson for 7 years straight and it's easy to project that again. More Stars and Offers? Sure.

SUMMARY: You are relying on data points - Offers - and recruiting services that are easily proven to be false. And the timing of the process (like grabbing an Offer in May OR not committing to January) leads the supposition that this is a Prospect's value ... to be easily rebuked.

Finally ... WE thrive as a Development Program. That clearly is NOT Penn State. We have a clear strategic niche ... and Edsall, for 2.0, is clearly hitting it hard again. NOTE: this is the same discussion redux of 2005-2009. The recruiting services, imo, are slightly better.


So go on ... your arugument is speci0us.

Yes. I can teach Statistics at a University level.

 

[UConnDan97]

"WIN" was the operative word in that back and forth. Not "operate".

Well, the majority of those games over the 5 year span really felt like an operation...

 

[BlueMAB]

Well, the majority of those games over the 5 year span really felt like an operation...

 

[Stainmaster]

Sorry ...

I am a believer in the EFFICIENT MARKET THEORY on the stock market. Not College Football recruiting. There is too much bias and too scanty information - not perfectly known. Simply not statistically factual. Like One Standard Deviation to Two Standard Deviation in contrast to stocks.

But, you simply have not done much thought about what is going on here. NO. Not all these kids are going to combines. NO. Not BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, Penn State are looking at the wide swath of kids in the Northeastern US (besides PA & NJ) that are in our core market. (BC and Syracuse are still somewhat limited in their hunt) NO. None of these programs look at major pockets. Kids like Jeffreys, Maloney, Pace ... probably got no more than a brush from those 5 programs. PLUS ... this analysis ignores the fact that WE often have these kids committed by June 1 of their rising Senior year. Guess what? Edsall has regularly not pulled down Line (either Offense or Defense) until he has seen them play a few games of their senior year.

The Offers - even in the Twitter world are not perfect knowledge. The ratings are done by guys like Mike Farrell.

Then .... watch: We ARE bringing in 4-7 guys visiting from FL (maybe GA) in the last two weeks of January. This was done by Terry Richardson for 7 years straight and it's easy to project that again. More Stars and Offers? Sure.

SUMMARY: You are relying on data points - Offers - and recruiting services that are easily proven to be false. And the timing of the process (like grabbing an Offer in May OR not committing to January) leads the supposition that this is a Prospect's value ... to be easily rebuked.

Finally ... WE thrive as a Development Program. That clearly is NOT Penn State. We have a clear strategic niche ... and Edsall, for 2.0, is clearly hitting it hard again. NOTE: this is the same discussion redux of 2005-2009. The recruiting services, imo, are slightly better.


So go on ... your arugument is speci0us.

Yes. I can teach Statistics at a University level.

Your "suspicion" that the offer data out there is false is not enough for me. Sorry.

 

[Confident Carl]

Rudimentary analysis:

• 46/47 players are on scholarship (Donaldson is the only walk-on).
• 44/47 players arrived on campus on scholarship - two (Bisack and Vechery) earned a scholarship while here.
• 28/47 players were recruited by Diaco, 14/47 by Pasqualoni, and 5/47 by Edsall. Out of the starters, 11/22 were recruited by Diaco, 9/22 by Pasqualoni, and 2/22 by Edsall (6 Diaco, 3 Pasqualoni, 2 Edsall on offense - 6 Pasqualoni, 5 Diaco on defense).
• 11/44 players who arrived on scholarship had at least one P5 offer, 15/44 topped out with at least one G5 offer, 8/44 topped out with at least one FCS offer, and 10/44's only offer came from UConn (out of the 21 starters who arrived on scholarship, 6/21 had at least one P5 offer, 6/21 topped out with at least one G5 offer, 5/21 topped out with at least one FCS offer, and the remaining 4/21 were only offered by UConn).
• In terms of players with P5 offers: 7 committed under Diaco, 4 under Pasqualoni.
  
• In terms of players whose best other offers were G5 schools: 7 committed under Diaco, 5 under Pasqualoni, 3 under Edsall.
  
• In terms of players whose only FBS offer came from UConn, but had offers from FCS schools: 5 committed under Diaco, 1 under Pasqualoni, 1 under Edsall.
  
• In terms of players whose only DI offer of any sort came from UConn: 7 committed under Diaco, 2 under Pasqualoni, 1 under Edsall.
  
• Top schools we overlapped with: Temple 6, Massachusetts 4, Rutgers 4.

More to come later...

Looks like you put a lot of work into this. Good review of where everyone came from and who recruited them.

 

[UConnJim]

That's not a team.

So what you've done is you've cherry-picked 2-star athletes that met your criteria. Which is exactly what the star system is NOT intended to do. It's not an absolute value of a player. It's a probability of a player's ceiling.

Plenty of folks have already done this exercise, so don't worry about doing it yourself. But you can pull the data of 5-star, 4-star, 3-star, 2-star, and no star NFL players. From a probability standpoint, which numbers do you think come out on top? Here is a chart from a few years back (SBNation) that gave the percentages for each star rating to the NFL:

How 2-star recruits get drafted

"For those who don't like percentages, here are some more intuitive breakdowns based on the numbers from the entire 2014 draft:

• A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
• A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
• A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
• A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).

And if the two-stars didn't already have enough going against them, keep in mind that the data set of two-star and unrated players includes three kickers and punters (who are rarely rated above two stars), two players who originally went to college on basketball scholarships and later picked up football, and a player from Canada (foreign players are almost never rated)."

Is the star system an absolute? Nope. But it's a pretty decent indicator of probability...

I have never said star ratings don't identify good football players, but we can't use the averages at UConn. Let's use the actual numbers from the 2004 to 2012 classes as many of the 2013 class are still at UConn:

4 stars: UConn 0.0% vs. Average 19.5% (UConn 0/1)
3 stars: UConn 9.4%, vs. Average 5.6% (UConn 8/85)
2 stars or less: UConn 12.7% vs. Average 2.9% (UConn 15/118)

So, UConn does about 2/3 better than average on getting 3*s drafted and over 4x better than average getting 2*s drafted. Maybe we should promote that to recruits? And, how do you explain how successful UConn has been?

First, UConn recruits heavily in the overlooked and under analyzed Northeast so kids are not going to get as many high star ratings. (Look at where the recruiting sites recruiting analysts are based/focused.) Also, Northeast kids are not as developed football players as Southern and Midwest kids so you have to recruit based on speed, athleticism, and frame and develop them. UConn is a development program and they have not, traditionally, been able to attract a high number of highly developed high school football players. Finally, Edsall and his recruiters were able to find a number of good athletes who became very good football players.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Sorry ...

I am a believer in the EFFICIENT MARKET THEORY on the stock market. Not College Football recruiting. There is too much bias and too scanty information - not perfectly known. Simply not statistically factual. Like One Standard Deviation to Two Standard Deviation in contrast to stocks.

But, you simply have not done much thought about what is going on here. NO. Not all these kids are going to combines. NO. Not BC, Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, Penn State are looking at the wide swath of kids in the Northeastern US (besides PA & NJ) that are in our core market. (BC and Syracuse are still somewhat limited in their hunt) NO. None of these programs look at major pockets. Kids like Jeffreys, Maloney, Pace ... probably got no more than a brush from those 5 programs. PLUS ... this analysis ignores the fact that WE often have these kids committed by June 1 of their rising Senior year. Guess what? Edsall has regularly not pulled down Line (either Offense or Defense) until he has seen them play a few games of their senior year.

The Offers - even in the Twitter world are not perfect knowledge. The ratings are done by guys like Mike Farrell.

Then .... watch: We ARE bringing in 4-7 guys visiting from FL (maybe GA) in the last two weeks of January. This was done by Terry Richardson for 7 years straight and it's easy to project that again. More Stars and Offers? Sure.

SUMMARY: You are relying on data points - Offers - and recruiting services that are easily proven to be false. And the timing of the process (like grabbing an Offer in May OR not committing to January) leads the supposition that this is a Prospect's value ... to be easily rebuked.

Finally ... WE thrive as a Development Program. That clearly is NOT Penn State. We have a clear strategic niche ... and Edsall, for 2.0, is clearly hitting it hard again. NOTE: this is the same discussion redux of 2005-2009. The recruiting services, imo, are slightly better.


So go on ... your arugument is speci0us.

Yes. I can teach Statistics at a University level.

Laughable.

UConn has been in an FBS conference in 2004. UConn has consistently finished near the bottom of their league in recruiting rankings and recruits holding comparable regional offers nearly every season during that time.

In those 14 seasons, UConn has finished with a winning record in their league 2 times. UConn has finished with an overall winning record 5 times.

Edsall, who had an ability to develop lesser recruits was responsible for those 5 winning seasons.

Since then, with our new staff and still poor recruiting we went from the Fiesta Bowl to 5, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, and 3 (and counting) win seasons.

Tell me again how there isn't a talent problem and the recruiting sites have been just so wrong?

 

[UConnDan97]

I have never said star ratings don't identify good football players, but we can't use the averages at UConn. Let's use the actual numbers from the 2004 to 2012 classes as many of the 2013 class are still at UConn:

4 stars: UConn 0.0% vs. Average 19.5% (UConn 0/1)
3 stars: UConn 9.4%, vs. Average 5.6% (UConn 8/85)
2 stars or less: UConn 12.7% vs. Average 2.9% (UConn 15/118)

So, UConn does about 2/3 better than average on getting 3*s drafted and over 4x better than average getting 2*s drafted. Maybe we should promote that to recruits? And, how do you explain how successful UConn has been?

First, UConn recruits heavily in the overlooked and under analyzed Northeast so kids are not going to get as many high star ratings. (Look at where the recruiting sites recruiting analysts are based/focused.) Also, Northeast kids are not as developed football players as Southern and Midwest kids so you have to recruit based on speed, athleticism, and frame and develop them. UConn is a development program and they have not, traditionally, been able to attract a high number of highly developed high school football players. Finally, Edsall and his recruiters were able to find a number of good athletes who became very good football players.

Q: How has UConn been ~4x better than other schools in getting 2*'s drafted?
A: Coaching.

Q: How has UConn been successful during a long stretch of years where our roster has contained more 2*'s than 3*'s?
A: Coaching.

Q: Why was it that during the period of 2004 - 2012, UConn never had less than 4 losses?
A: Because coaching can only go so far. Depth matters. High quality players at every position matters.

This is not a hard question-and-answer session, Jim. I love UConn and I always want to believe that they are going to go undefeated each year. But I'm also not shocked when they don't. Maybe UConn Field Hockey or UConn Women's Basketball, but not shocked when football takes a loss. Edsall will get us much better than what we are, but it will take a significant amount of time and effort to get UConn to recruit and perform the way that Alabama or OSU does...

 

[Exit 4]

Of course there is bias, poor information and plain old misinformation out there. However, as I have argued a few months back, the advent of HUDL tape for virtually all D1-D3 level recruits nationwide is really a game changer. Its harder for Randy to have hidden gems both near and from afar with so much tape out there. Plus, after 10+ years of watching tape, the services are getting better at this overall. I can't say I watch many tapes right now and say WTF on the grading. Yes, maybe a couple, but most of the time no.

What will always be absent from film however will be i) heart and passion for football and winning, ii) academics, iii) a good sense of where the kid is in his physical development, room to grow or dominating as a 17 year old because he already has a 21 year old's body, iv) coachability, and v) did local scheme issues mask/limit potential (some HS programs under use or miss use players).

We can talk circles on this, but nothing will change the fact that the next rise of UConn football will be on Randy's diamonds again. Any other way is very unlikely.

PS - watch 10 HUDL tapes from GA, TX and FL and then watch local stuff. Its night and day. I know I am stating the obvious, but just saying.

 

[UConnJim]

Laughable.

UConn has been in an FBS conference in 2004. UConn has consistently finished near the bottom of their league in recruiting rankings and recruits holding comparable regional offers nearly every season during that time.

In those 14 seasons, UConn has finished with a winning record in their league 2 times. UConn has finished with an overall winning record 5 times.

Edsall, who had an ability to develop lesser recruits was responsible for those 5 winning seasons.

Since then, with our new staff and still poor recruiting we went from the Fiesta Bowl to 5, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, and 3 (and counting) win seasons.

Tell me again how there isn't a talent problem and the recruiting sites have been just so wrong?

Personally, I think the main problems UConn has had since Edsall has left have been driven by coaching as PP and Diaco were bad hires. Neither developed an offense and PP and Diaco were in charge of recruiting and I don't think they did a good job recruiting.

Look at the talent on the 2011 team: 10 NFL draft picks, 2 underrated Free Agents who are playing in the NFL (Andrew Adams and Nick Williams) plus 2 guys still playing in the CFL.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Personally, I think the main problems UConn has had since Edsall has left have been driven by coaching as PP and Diaco were bad hires. Neither developed an offense and PP and Diaco were in charge of recruiting and I don't think they did a good job recruiting.

Look at the talent on the 2011 team: 10 NFL draft picks, 2 underrated Free Agents who are playing in the NFL (Andrew Adams and Nick Williams) plus 2 guys still playing in the CFL.

I agree with you that the coaching has been terrible which has led to prolonged terrible recruiting.

I don't think it's validation of our recruiting that a handful of guys have exceeded expectations and made the NFL. Those are outliers, where as the majority of the program has performed at low G5/FCS level.

Randy knows what he is doing and I have faith in his ability. I also recognize recruiting out of the AAC is a whole hell of a lot harder than the Big East.

It remains to be seen whether he still has the magic, but we have to give that a couple more seasons to find out.

 

[UConnJim]

Of course there is bias, poor information and plain odd misinformation out there. However, as I have argued a few months back, the advent of HUDL tape for virtually all D1-D3 level recruits nationwide is really a game changer. Its harder for Randy to have hidden gems both near and from afar with so much tape out there. Plus, after 10+ years of watching tape, the services are getting better at this overall. I can't say I watch many tapes right now and say WTF on the grading. Yes, maybe a couple, but most of the time no.

What will always be absent from film however will be i) heart and passion for football and winning, ii) academics, iii) a good sense of where the kid is in his physical development, room to grow or dominating as a 17 year old because he already has a 21 year old's body, iv) coachability, and v) did local scheme issues mask/limit potential (some HS programs under use or miss use players).

We can talk circles on this, but nothing will change the fact that the next rise of UConn football will be on Randy's diamonds again. Any other way is very unlikely.

PS - watch 10 HUDL tapes from GA, TX and FL and then watch local stuff. Its night and day. I know I am stating the obvious, but just saying.

The talent arbitrage is still there. The P5 programs are going to go after developed football players. They will take very few if any 265 lb OL like William Beatty, DL like 220 lb Kendall Reyes, or CB like 165 lb Blidi Wrey-Wilson or 152 lb Jasper Howard. Or undersized skill players like Nick Williams, Larry Taylor, Jordan Todman, or Terry Caulley. Or Canadian players. Those players wouldn't have been helped by HUDL as they were passed over based on size and development.

Look at Todman. He was very well known in Massachusetts as he rushed for over 2000 yards his JR and SR seasons averaging over 10 yards per carry and 61 TDs. But he was a 5'10" 180 lbs RB, so he was somewhat overlooked. BC offered him, but to play DB and he wanted to play RB.

This is from Larry Taylor's Wikipedia page:
"Taylor's speed—measured at 4.3 seconds on the 40-yard dash—made him an attractive target for Division I football programs;[5] his diminutive size—5 feet 6 inches (1.68 m) and 157 pounds (71 kg)—caused that interest to abate. [6] Schools such as Tennessee and Mississippi State evaluated Taylor but eventually declined to offer a scholarship. In the end Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, and Middle Tennessee State made scholarship offers. After making his only official visit to Connecticut, Taylor opted to sign with the Huskies."

Look at our starting DL in the Fiesta Bowl:

Kendall Reyes 220 lb recruit to 298 lbs.
Shamar Stephen 260 lb recruit to 300 lbs.
Twyon Martin 260 lb recruit to 292 lbs.
Jesse Joseph 230 lb recruit to 255 lbs.

They weren't recruited because they were undersized and not developed.

The Fiesta Bowl team is full of undersized and undeveloped players like:

Scott Lutrus 196 lb recruit to 245 lbs.
Ryan Griffin 220 lb recruit to 243 lbs.
Zach Hurd 260 lb recruit to 325 lbs.
Blidi Wrey-Wilson 165 lb recruit to 191 lbs.

Many of the kids in GA, TX, FL are highly developed in high school, so they do deserve their recruiting ratings. There are lots of good players in those areas, but you have to project how good will they be in 4 years. Many are already fully developed based on being redshirted in high school and advanced high school training programs.

 

[Exit 4]

The talent arbitrage is still there. The P5 programs are going to go after developed football players. They will take very few if any 265 lb OL like William Beatty, DL like 220 lb Kendall Reyes, or CB like 165 lb Blidi Wrey-Wilson or 152 lb Jasper Howard. Or undersized skill players like Nick Williams, Larry Taylor, Jordan Todman, or Terry Caulley. Or Canadian players. Those players wouldn't have been helped by HUDL as they were passed over based on size and development.

Look at Todman. He was very well known in Massachusetts as he rushed for over 2000 yards his JR and SR seasons averaging over 10 yards per carry and 61 TDs. But he was a 5'10" 180 lbs RB, so he was somewhat overlooked. BC offered him, but to play DB and he wanted to play RB.

This is from Larry Taylor's Wikipedia page:
"Taylor's speed—measured at 4.3 seconds on the 40-yard dash—made him an attractive target for Division I football programs;[5] his diminutive size—5 feet 6 inches (1.68 m) and 157 pounds (71 kg)—caused that interest to abate. [6] Schools such as Tennessee and Mississippi State evaluated Taylor but eventually declined to offer a scholarship. In the end Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, and Middle Tennessee State made scholarship offers. After making his only official visit to Connecticut, Taylor opted to sign with the Huskies."

Look at our starting DL in the Fiesta Bowl:

Kendall Reyes 220 lb recruit to 298 lbs.
Shamar Stephen 260 lb recruit to 300 lbs.
Twyon Martin 260 lb recruit to 292 lbs.
Jesse Joseph 230 lb recruit to 255 lbs.

They weren't recruited because they were undersized and not developed.

The Fiesta Bowl team is full of undersized and undeveloped players like:

Scott Lutrus 196 lb recruit to 245 lbs.
Ryan Griffin 220 lb recruit to 243 lbs.
Zach Hurd 260 lb recruit to 325 lbs.
Blidi Wrey-Wilson 165 lb recruit to 191 lbs.

Many of the kids in GA, TX, FL are highly developed in high school, so they do deserve their recruiting ratings. There are lots of good players in those areas, but you have to project how good will they be in 4 years. Many are already fully developed based on being redshirted in high school and advanced high school training programs.

The next 4 years will be a test to see if the talent arbitrage remains. I am hopeful it does, but I am concerned the opportunities for arbitrage have diminished. We really can't afford to see any such gap narrow. Our past winning seasons were narrow winning seasons, not ones of great dominance.

 

[RSTuthill]

Sorry ... I am a believer in the EFFICIENT MARKET THEORY on the stock market.

In my opinion the EMH has been discredited because it fails to account for psychological effects in markets.

 

[Pudge]

In my opinion the EMH has been discredited because it fails to account for psychological effects in markets.

Efficient Market Theory + Option Pricing Model

You do know that the Modern Trading algorithms used by all the Hedge Funds, Traders, IBanks ... came out of work from Eugene Fama, Richard Roll, Fischer Black, Myron Scholes etc. including several Nobel Prize for Economics.

When you flip on the computer screen ... and buy stocks based on the VALUE that pops up, all that is Math. Derived from lots of work that changed Wall Street. The EMT is right there. And ... And Yes. You can Value many other Assets in a similar manner. Real Estate. Equipment. Etc etc

And then ... you can't make the case that this Value of Recruits has much credibility. Bad info. No info. And zero evaluation of loads of prospects. You can say that UConn recruiting is absolutely the CASE study why this is inefficient.

Then ... this explains Byron Jones, Darius Butler, Sio Moore, Obi, etc etc.

Yearn for 4 stars. I'm excited that HCRE is back with a better complement of assistant. And a better statistical staff. And grind it through. We will be 110% better than any other previous year. With wins ... we will do better.

 

[Pudge]

Laughable.

UConn has been in an FBS conference in 2004. UConn has consistently finished near the bottom of their league in recruiting rankings and recruits holding comparable regional offers nearly every season during that time.

In those 14 seasons, UConn has finished with a winning record in their league 2 times. UConn has finished with an overall winning record 5 times.

Edsall, who had an ability to develop lesser recruits was responsible for those 5 winning seasons.

Since then, with our new staff and still poor recruiting we went from the Fiesta Bowl to 5, 5, 3, 2, 6, 3, and 3 (and counting) win seasons.

Tell me again how there isn't a talent problem and the recruiting sites have been just so wrong?

Apparently Math and Statistics and Valuation methodology is not something you do.

The most valid post is whaler11. We can't miss. We need 50-60 healthy good players that play like 3 Stars. We've never been there. At Edsall 1.0 we were a score short of that - imo. And that's dangerous in a long CFB season. But he knew how to get closer to that bar certainly than the two idiots.

 

[whaler11]

One variable that I think makes it harder this time around that we ignore:

A 12 team league is much harder to win than an 8 team league without having the ‘best’ team.

More teams = more leagues games = less influence from variance. Also 12 teams makes it more likely that you have outliers to the top and bottom quality wise.

In the Big East you could have the 3rd best
team - catch the right teams at home, see someone else get upset and steal the league at 5-2. That ain’t happening anymore.

An additional challenge is the concussion issue. Youth and high school participation is going to drop in UConn’s natural recruiting territory faster and sooner than our new conference peers.

Biggest advantage UConn may have is stability - if we do put together a contender it’s not a Frost or Norvelle or Taggert situation.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Apparently Math and Statistics and Valuation methodology is not something you do.

The most valid post is whaler11. We can't miss. We need 50-60 healthy good players that play like 3 Stars. We've never been there. At Edsall 1.0 we were a score short of that - imo. And that's dangerous in a long CFB season. But he knew how to get closer to that bar certainly than the two idiots.

So after all your ridiculous parallels and pontificating, you've reached essentially the conclusion I've been hammering on here for years?

We need a vast majority of our players to be ranked 2*or 3* and have mostly G5 offers, with the occasional P5 offer.

We can't have a roster full of unranked players who have no other FBS offers.

If we can get UConn's recruiting ranking in the 70s - we can win with Edsall.

If UConn's recruiting is going to stay in 90s/100s - we won't be able to win.


From TOS - UConn's football recruiting rankings the past 4 seasons and the current class.
2014 - 100+
2015 - 99
2016 - 100+
2017 - 89
2018 to date - 78

And people wonder why we have games where we give up 70 points?

 

[BlueMAB]

Edsall (and the coaches he finds) can get teams to consistently outperform their ranking (at UConn). But as @ConnHuskBask said, classes in the 80s and up won't do it. He'd be competitive in the AAC, maybe get to a bowl once or twice cycle, but recruiting has to improve, period. It has already started, and will continue to with the group of coaches we have now.

 

[UConnJim]

So after all your ridiculous parallels and pontificating, you've reached essentially the conclusion I've been hammering on here for years?

We need a vast majority of our players to be ranked 2*or 3* and have mostly G5 offers, with the occasional P5 offer.

We can't have a roster full of unranked players who have no other FBS offers.

If we can get UConn's recruiting ranking in the 70s - we can win with Edsall.

If UConn's recruiting is going to stay in 90s/100s - we won't be able to win.


From TOS - UConn's football recruiting rankings the past 4 seasons and the current class.
2014 - 100+
2015 - 99
2016 - 100+
2017 - 89
2018 to date - 78

And people wonder why we have games where we give up 70 points?

Here are the UConn recruiting rankings before we went to the Fiesta Bowl:

2004: 83
2005: 69
2006: 93
2007: 60
2008: 81
2009: 81
2010: 84

Average = 79

Edsall has proven that he can win with recruiting classes ranked 79 which is about where he has been in his first 2 recruiting classes.

 

[Exit 4]

Here are the UConn recruiting rankings before we went to the Fiesta Bowl:

2004: 83
2005: 69
2006: 93
2007: 60
2008: 81
2009: 81
2010: 84

Average = 79

Edsall has proven that he can win with recruiting classes ranked 79 which is about where he has been in his first 2 recruiting classes.

But as Whaler11 just pointed out, now that our conference is bigger, its going to require we have a 2 loss season or less to finish at the top.

Edsall delivered a 3 loss season just once, all our other 'great years' were 4 and 5 loss seasons.

Connecticut Huskies Index | College Football at Sports-Reference.com

I believe in Randy and I believe in his diamonds, but I think this time around it will take more to get to the top of this conference and achieve success than last time. Need top 70 recruiting classes whether you believe in the rankings or not, they are some sort of crude indicator.

 

[pepband99]

One variable that I think makes it harder this time around that we ignore:

A 12 team league is much harder to win than an 8 team league without having the ‘best’ team.

More teams = more leagues games = less influence from variance. Also 12 teams makes it more likely that you have outliers to the top and bottom quality wise.

In the Big East you could have the 3rd best
team - catch the right teams at home, see someone else get upset and steal the league at 5-2. That ain’t happening anymore.

An additional challenge is the concussion issue. Youth and high school participation is going to drop in UConn’s natural recruiting territory faster and sooner than our new conference peers.

Biggest advantage UConn may have is stability - if we do put together a contender it’s not a Frost or Norvelle or Taggert situation.

The other side - what you lose in a sneaky win, you gain back in a sneaky schedule. You "miss" playing the right/wrong team, and your schedule might just help you enough (at least until the championship)