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Message: [QUOTE="Plebe, post: 3410711, member: 6927"] I'm as much of a bracketology geek as anyone, but frankly it's still premature to declare most of these teams "locks." The conference season is less than halfway over, and the resumes are only about 60% complete. Let's look at the Big 12. At this point not even West Virginia's fate is certain. Just two weeks ago they looked like the clear second-best team in the conference. But now they've lost 3 in a row -- including a blowout at home to Oklahoma, and another loss at home to an Oklahoma State team playing without Natasha Mack. If they can't snap out of this bad patch, they could easily play themselves out of the tournament, even though their OOC resume includes a quality road win at Mississippi State. Similarly, too much remains to be decided for virtually every other team not named Baylor. RPIs will continue to fluctuate significantly as teams go through hot or cold patches. West Virginia's RPI has tumbled from a seemingly "safe" #22 to a bubbly #39 in less than two weeks, and there are still more than 7 weeks until Selection Monday. I'm reminded of the case of Rutgers two years ago. In mid-January they were in the top 10 of the RPI and were 5-1 in conference. But then they went 3-10 through the rest of the regular season and Big Ten tournament, and their RPI slipped to #40, placing them right on the knife's edge. The committee ended up passing on Rutgers. Let's also remember that the committee puts a heavy emphasis on quality wins. Using 2018 as an example again, they left out #40 Rutgers as a result of their poor finish, but they did give at-large bids to the following teams based on whom they'd beaten: #49 Creighton #53 Miami #55 Arizona State #58 Oklahoma State #60 Nebraska [/QUOTE]

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