How many P5 teams really deserve NCAAT bids?

[DefenseBB]

We know the PAC12 is the best conference, we know the BigTen is the deepest. We know that SEC, ACC and Big12 are all down from previous years. We have seen more non-P5 schools get votes for the top 25 than usually do. I hope this transcends into more non-P5 schools getting bids. The statistics have 32 Auto-Bids to conference winners, leaving 32 "Open" bids. There are 7 conferences guaranteed to get 2 or more bids and another 7 conferences (Top 50 ranked) to get bids so 14 Conferences are in the top 50. 64 Slots minus 18 Conference winners not in the top 50 (32 auto minus these 14=18), leaves 46 bids available (14 top conferences plus 32 open). I looked at Massey and WarrenNolan RPI for the top 46 rankings with #46 being the cutoff (UConn is 3 Massey/4 WarrenNolan and is noted as 3/4). If a school makes one but not the other, I listed it on the bubble. I am curious about the Board's view. Here's my list
PAC12- 6 locks: Oregon 4/7; Stanford 6/6; UCLA 8/8; Oregon St 9/9; Arizona 18/43; ASU 21/27
1 Bubble team Colorado 44/50
Big Ten- 7 locks: Maryland 12/16; Northwestern 10/15; Iowa 16/5; Indiana 17/13; Rutgers 27/13; Purdue 35/25; Ohio St 42/29;
3 Bubble teams Nebraska 40/60; Michigan 43/54; Mich State 50/91
ACC- 4 locks: Louisville 5/2; NC State 7/19; Florida State 20/18; Virginia Tech 29/28;
3 Bubble teams: North Carolina 30/57, Georgia Tech 32/47, Duke 49/42
SEC- 6 locks: South Carolina 2/1, Miss State 13/12, Kentucky 19/20. Texas A&M 22/17, LSU 26/24, Arkansas 33/44
1 Bubble team: Tennessee 28/58
Big 12- 5 locks: Baylor 1/11, West Virginia 31/40, TCU 34/26, Ok State 37/34, Texas 41/45
2 Bubble teams: Iowa State 48/63, Oklahoma 51/32
Big East-3 locks: DePaul 14/14, Marquette 36/36, Creighton 38/23
1 Bubble team: St. John's 56/48
Missouri Valley- 2 locks: Missouri State 25/3, Drake 39/35
1 Bubble team: Northern Iowa 46/52
Add in UConn 3/4, Gonzaga 11/10, South Dakota 23/41, Princeton 15/21, Florida Gulf Coast 24/30, James Madison 45/39 and Central Michigan 47/22 as the additional 7 means 40 of the 46 are locks and leaves 6 other bids for the bubble teams plus these top 46 options Yale 71/46, Western Kentucky 75/31 and Old Dominion 59/37 (these last two assumes Rice 84/99 wins Conference USA).
To recap the P5 have 28 locks using Massey and WarrenNolan plus 11 Bubble teams at this point of the conference season.
Thoughts?

 

[Plebe]

I'm as much of a bracketology geek as anyone, but frankly it's still premature to declare most of these teams "locks." The conference season is less than halfway over, and the resumes are only about 60% complete.

Let's look at the Big 12. At this point not even West Virginia's fate is certain. Just two weeks ago they looked like the clear second-best team in the conference. But now they've lost 3 in a row -- including a blowout at home to Oklahoma, and another loss at home to an Oklahoma State team playing without Natasha Mack. If they can't snap out of this bad patch, they could easily play themselves out of the tournament, even though their OOC resume includes a quality road win at Mississippi State. Similarly, too much remains to be decided for virtually every other team not named Baylor.

RPIs will continue to fluctuate significantly as teams go through hot or cold patches. West Virginia's RPI has tumbled from a seemingly "safe" #22 to a bubbly #39 in less than two weeks, and there are still more than 7 weeks until Selection Monday.

I'm reminded of the case of Rutgers two years ago. In mid-January they were in the top 10 of the RPI and were 5-1 in conference. But then they went 3-10 through the rest of the regular season and Big Ten tournament, and their RPI slipped to #40, placing them right on the knife's edge. The committee ended up passing on Rutgers.

Let's also remember that the committee puts a heavy emphasis on quality wins. Using 2018 as an example again, they left out #40 Rutgers as a result of their poor finish, but they did give at-large bids to the following teams based on whom they'd beaten:
#49 Creighton
#53 Miami
#55 Arizona State
#58 Oklahoma State
#60 Nebraska

 

[maccca3232]

Agree you probably need to tweak logic to have less Lock teams.

Also I don't see why Miami (FL), while they have lost a few games with Beatrice Mompremier out injured, shouldn't at least be a Bubble team.

If you compare Creme's Bracketology from last year to this year.

• At this time last year (2018-19) he had a split of 26-6 for P5 to Non P5 At-Large Bids. The final Bracket was 26-6 as well.
• This year (2019-20) right now he has a split of 28-4 for P5 to Non P5 At-Large Bids. So that is not promising.

@Plebe the primary question though was how many P5 teams?

 

[Plebe]

@Plebe the primary question though was how many P5 teams?

Somewhere between 5 and 37

 

[DefenseBB]

"Locks" is a relative term at this stage-IF the filed were determined today as an example. I used it to confirm those schools have good metrics Massey, WarrenNolan and overall record. It's also to give an opinion to elicit dialogue. To me, seeing Miami and Syracuse so far down in the ratings was interesting. The BigTen is deep with 10 programs strong enough for the NCAAT but yet none are elite.

Again, using the word "lock" was that it was consistent for meeting the NCAAT requisite vs. the others listed as bubble. There is a lot of season left to play and some have easy schedules while some have harder schedules. I am not betting ANY money on any programs to make it. Except for UConn. Although I might bet money on ND NOT making it...

 

[Plebe]

For some historical context on the main question, here are the numbers of p5 teams that have made it since the 2013 realignment:

​

Year​	ACC​	Big 12​	Big Ten​	Pac-12​	SEC​	Total p5 teams​	Non-p5 at-large teams​
2014​	8​	6​	5​	5​	8​	32​	5​
2015​	8​	5​	7​	5​	7​	32​	5​
2016​	5​	6​	5​	5​	9​	30​	7​
2017​	7​	6​	4​	7​	8​	32​	5​
2018​	8​	4​	6​	6​	7​	31​	6​
2019​	8​	4​	6​	6​	7​	31​	6​

​

 

[triaddukefan]

Aint no way the ACC gets 8 this year. Im hoping for six. Louisville, State, FSU, VPI, GaTech and Duke

 

[Plebe]

Aint no way the ACC gets 8 this year. Im hoping for six. Louisville, State, FSU, VPI, GaTech and Duke

Pretty amazing that Duke is still very much in the hunt, considering how bad they've looked. They're at 10-9 but have a very strong SOS.

Equally surprising that Virginia Tech has such a high RPI (#25) despite a pretty weak nonconference SOS. A lot for them may hinge on how well those wins over Purdue and Virginia hold up through early March.

 

[triaddukefan]

Pretty amazing that Duke is still very much in the hunt, considering how bad they've looked. They're at 10-9 but have a very strong SOS.

Equally surprising that Virginia Tech has such a high RPI (#25) despite a pretty weak nonconference SOS. A lot for them may hinge on how well those wins over Purdue and Virginia hold up through early March.

Duke's last minute meltdowns are gonna cost us I believe. Then again....... the VPI and ND games even out the UVA and Wake ones. I saw somewhere Duke had the #3 SOS..... UVA had the #1 SOS... no idea why UVA scheduled the way they did. Brutal schedule.

 

[Plebe]

I saw somewhere Duke had the #3 SOS..... UVA had the #1 SOS... no idea why UVA scheduled the way they did. Brutal schedule.

Duke had the #2 nonconference SOS, currently at #5 overall SOS (based on RPI) -- but that will probably trend back up because their ACC schedule is a bit back-loaded (still have to play NC State and UNC twice each, plus Florida State, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech).

Correct about Virginia: #1 both OOC and overall SOS. Much like Duke, that is *the* reason their RPI is so high.

 

[triaddukefan]

By my calculations..... Duke needs to get to 12-6 in the conference, and win a game in Greensboro. 11-7 would be the bare minimum

]

 

[Plebe]

By my calculations..... Duke needs to get to 12-6 in the conference, and win a game in Greensboro. 11-7 would be the bare minimum

I was just looking at that. I don't think they need to go 12-6. They will get in comfortably at 11-7. At 10-8 plus one ACCT win I'd call it likely.

 

[Plebe]

Duke's next 10 games:

Favored to win: Pitt, Miami (assuming no Mompremier)
Underdog against: NC State (x2), Florida St
Call it a toss-up: UNC (x2), Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Virginia

Not gonna be easy.