How many games will we win this year?

[DoctorWho85]

I didn't say I agreed. But is Uconn's O which was the 1's against the 2's as good as it looked in the spring game? I'm not convinced of that either. Spring games mean nothing (Bama's score was 7-3).

I apologize if I implied you agreed, not my intent. It's just frustrating to me (and I'm sure a lot others) that ESPN is right down the road and can't even take the time to properly research the school. I know that's a lot to ask from a network that basically is the TMZ of sports now and only reports Lebron James's shoes, or something about the Golden State Warriors. Do you know how they come to those numbers? I tried googling the metrics and I really couldn't find anything

 

[Husky25]

Makes good sense to me. We're favored in 5 games (albeit very slightly against Navy); we're dogs by 2 points or less in 4 games; and close to a TD dog in 3 games.

Before folks think being a dog at BC is crazy ask yourself this question, what would that defense (which returns this season) have done to our offense last season? If they have any type of offense this season that game is a slug fest.

There is literally no data from which these percentages are reasonably derived. At best, these projections are based on 2015. A year after which coaches changed programs, Seniors have graduated, recruits have yet to reach campus, and nary a down (that counts) has been played.

Boston College is an early favorite 7 months ahead of time only because of the perceived strength of their conference (They play FSU, Clemson, Vtech, and NC State) and because it is being played in Chestnut Hill.

Sure BC returns a stout defense, but the leader of that defense (and offense for that matter), the man who knew his players the best, the man who called the formations and personnel packages, is gone. so are plus a number of position coaches. How important is the loss of Coach Brown? UConn went from the #5 ranked defense - based on yardage - in 2012 to #27 in 2013 after Brown went to BC. In terms of scoring, UConn went from #27 (<19 ppga) to #86 (>30). BC gave up 15 ppg last year.

The other reason they are favored is because it is a "home game." Dare I say that unless BC restricts ticket sales to credit cards addressed in the 01--- and 02--- zip codes, UConn will make up far more than their allotment of tickets and BC will have a home game in name only.

The only game that I believe UConn has a less than reasonable shot at winning is at Houston. Cinci is at home, so I give UConn a puncher's chance. Navy lost their all-world option QB as well as (I think) their entire starting offensive line. Virginia? Bronco Mendenhall knows UConn, but he has a new roster and it isn't filled with 26 year old men this year. Also, a UConn team built on the back of sophomores went toe-to-toe with BYU last year for 51 minutes and were a bonehead penalty from having a chance at a game tying drive. Familiarity cuts both ways. Temple is a home game plus the owls lost 26 seniors, Tyler Matakevich among them. Finally, and this is just a gut feeling, I think South Florida is grossly overrated.

I think 7-5 should be the floor of expectations. 8-4 is completely reasonable, and dare I say upwards of 10-2 is within reach.

 

[uconndogs]

There is literally no data from which these percentages are reasonably derived. At best, these projections are based on 2015. A year after which coaches changed programs, Seniors have graduated, recruits have yet to reach campus, and nary a down (that counts) has been played.

Boston College is an early favorite 7 months ahead of time only because of the perceived strength of their conference (They play FSU, Clemson, Vtech, and NC State) and because it is being played in Chestnut Hill.

Sure BC returns a stout defense, but the leader of that defense (and offense for that matter), the man who knew his players the best, the man who called the formations and personnel packages, is gone. so are plus a number of position coaches. How important is the loss of Coach Brown? UConn went from the #5 ranked defense - based on yardage - in 2012 to #27 in 2013 after Brown went to BC. In terms of scoring, UConn went from #27 (<19 ppga) to #86 (>30). BC gave up 15 ppg last year.

The other reason they are favored is because it is a "home game." Dare I say that unless BC restricts ticket sales to credit cards addressed in the 01--- and 02--- zip codes, UConn will make up far more than their allotment of tickets and BC will have a home game in name only.

The only game that I believe UConn has a less than reasonable shot at winning is at Houston. Cinci is at home, so I give UConn a puncher's chance. Navy lost their all-world option QB as well as (I think) their entire starting offensive line. Virginia? Bronco Mendenhall knows UConn, but he has a new roster and it isn't filled with 26 year old men this year. Also, a UConn team built on the back of sophomores went toe-to-toe with BYU last year for 51 minutes and were a bonehead penalty from having a chance at a game tying drive. Familiarity cuts both ways. Temple is a home game plus the owls lost 26 seniors, Tyler Matakevich among them. Finally, and this is just a gut feeling, I think South Florida is grossly overrated.

I think 7-5 should be the floor of expectations. 8-4 is completely reasonable, and dare I say upwards of 10-2 is within reach.

Our defense after Brown fell off because we graduated NFL talent by the truckload. l liked brown, but he inherited tremendous talent at UConn.

 

[BugsyCT]

1) Maine (H)--W
2) Navy (A)--L
3) Virginia (H)--W
4) Syracuse (H)--W
5) Houston (A)--L
6) Cincy (H)--L
7) USF (A)--L
8) UCF (H)--W
9) ECU (A)--L
10) Temple (H)--W
11) BC (A)--W
12) Tulane (H)--W

7-5, but optimistic we can find as many as 9 wins if all goes well and the offense improves.

 

[blue93]

1) Maine (H)- W
2) Navy (A)- W
3) Virginia (H)- L
4) Syracuse (H)- W
5) Houston (A)- L
6) Cincy (H)- L
7) USF (A)- L
8) UCF (H)- W
9) ECU (A)- W
10) Temple (H)- W
11) BC (A)- W
12) Tulane (H)- W

I've got us at 8-4. Which means we won't go 8-4.

Sidenote: not sure why so many have us losing to Navy. They lose a ton on offense, and will have little time to gel by the time we get them. I think we win that one fairly easily.

 

[06029]

1)
Sidenote: not sure why so many have us losing to Navy. They lose a ton on offense, and will have little time to gel by the time we get them. I think we win that one fairly easily.

True triple option team that you face once a year that runs its offense to perfection no matter the QB. 12 out of the last 13 seasons at least 8 wins (exception was 2011; 5-7). Away game, week 2. How much of the pre-season do you spend on defending the option versus prepping your D for the full season? Fairly easy win? Love the pre-season optimism but easily might be the wrong word. It is potentially the hardest road game of the year because that stadium is always full.

 

[freescooter]

To me Navy is a winnable game next year. Yea the option can cause all manner of problems but that quarterback was so far above average that replacing him will be very tough. There are other ones I worry about like Temple and at ECU more than Navy.

 

[jdb50]

Most likely losses are at Houston and S. Florida. At BC will be a tough assignment and until I see our offense in action I put this in the loss column. Winning all home games like we have done before is quite possible this year. So 9-3 is within reach. Could be a fun ride.

 

[RedStickHusky]

Interesting. Always hard to prognosticate because the other teams get to vote but it looks like the swing games, at least in terms of BY perception are Navy, and USF and then ECU and BC on a second tier. Personally, I like what Niamutololo does, and I'd be surprised if Navy drops off much; on the other hand, while USF may continue to be improving, I think we will too. That game was a tale of two halves last year and they got us with a half-time adjustment (pound the rock) that we couldn't counter. Those games both look competitive to me but I think USF is the more winnable. 'Cuse, and Va at home and BC anywhere are all statement games; gotta have two of those, although three would put us at the upper end of projections. I'm sticking with 7-5 as a 'won't be disappointed' Mendoza line; if the program turns a corner on specials and we generate t/o's on defense the ceiling could very well be 10 games. Can't wait to see.

 

[TheDoggPound]

Hardest games are Houston and Cincinnati. We owe South Florida a nice whopping after putting up 600 yards of offense and losing.

 

[uconnphil2016]

I second that. We're going to beat USF after what happened at home against them this past year. We'll be seeking redemption. We owned them in that game. Such a frustrating loss.

 

[weyuo]

There is literally no data from which these percentages are reasonably derived. At best, these projections are based on 2015. A year after which coaches changed programs, Seniors have graduated, recruits have yet to reach campus, and nary a down (that counts) has been played.

Boston College is an early favorite 7 months ahead of time only because of the perceived strength of their conference (They play FSU, Clemson, Vtech, and NC State) and because it is being played in Chestnut Hill.

Sure BC returns a stout defense, but the leader of that defense (and offense for that matter), the man who knew his players the best, the man who called the formations and personnel packages, is gone. so are plus a number of position coaches. How important is the loss of Coach Brown? UConn went from the #5 ranked defense - based on yardage - in 2012 to #27 in 2013 after Brown went to BC. In terms of scoring, UConn went from #27 (<19 ppga) to #86 (>30). BC gave up 15 ppg last year.

The other reason they are favored is because it is a "home game." Dare I say that unless BC restricts ticket sales to credit cards addressed in the 01--- and 02--- zip codes, UConn will make up far more than their allotment of tickets and BC will have a home game in name only.

The only game that I believe UConn has a less than reasonable shot at winning is at Houston. Cinci is at home, so I give UConn a puncher's chance. Navy lost their all-world option QB as well as (I think) their entire starting offensive line. Virginia? Bronco Mendenhall knows UConn, but he has a new roster and it isn't filled with 26 year old men this year. Also, a UConn team built on the back of sophomores went toe-to-toe with BYU last year for 51 minutes and were a bonehead penalty from having a chance at a game tying drive. Familiarity cuts both ways. Temple is a home game plus the owls lost 26 seniors, Tyler Matakevich among them. Finally, and this is just a gut feeling, I think South Florida is grossly overrated.

I think 7-5 should be the floor of expectations. 8-4 is completely reasonable, and dare I say upwards of 10-2 is within reach.

I agree. I see Houston as a hornet's nest and if UConn somehow pulls a win out of that dog & cat fight it would be highly unexpected. Players will be limping onto the plane after that brawl and I think that is where the real losses will pile up. Who comes out of that still healthy and who does not? That is the real question.

USF?? They'll be going through pretty much the same gauntlet as the Huskies so it's gonna be a tough one to call till you see who's still healthy on each side and which team has momentum versus who is struggling coming into that week.

Virginia, I see a win there for the Huskies. They get the Cav's coming to the Rent after traveling to Oregon the week before. UConn comes home after enduring the triple option minus an All American QB and Virginia comes in licking their wounds after dealing with projected #18 Oregon's ever ready offense. The Huskies won't put up offensive numbers like the Ducks can but UConn's front seven on D should create new and even more intimidating nightmares for the Cav's than Oregon's did the week before.

Cincy is gonna be another knock down drag out brawl because after that AAC basketball tourney classic a month ago the Bearcats have definitely moved into the most heated rivalry the Huskies, or dare I say any two American schools have since the creation of the AAC. What two other schools have more disdain for each other in the AAC? Should be a good one. Advantage Cincinnati not just on revenge factor but the fact that UConn went to Houston the week before and the Bearcats were home vs USF.

UConn is going to have one, maybe two of those WTF!! How did you lose that kind of games mostly caused by a still struggling to find their rhythm offense. Could be Navy, could be BC. Could even be Syracuse or Temple but even though the team is maturing they still haven't showed(especially to themselves) that they are a "winning" program yet. They'll take a couple steps closer this year. 7-5 or 8-4, sure. A bowl win, you bet!! Go Huskies!!

 

[BlueDogs]

Start here - I HATE BC with a passion. That said, many are marking BC down as a W and I don't care how bad they are on paper, they are going to fight tooth and nail to come out with a W against us at Chestnut Hill. If they lose to us up there, the world ends. I still predict a W but not an easy one.

 

[uconndogs]

Start here - I HATE BC with a passion. That said, many are marking BC down as a W and I don't care how bad they are on paper, they are going to fight tooth and nail to come out with a W against us at Chestnut Hill. If they lose to us up there, the world ends. I still predict a W but not an easy one.

Totally agree. BC has a losing season and loses to us at Alumni, the Daz is toast.

 

[HuskyHawk]

with commentary

1) Maine (H)--W...enough said
2) Navy (A)--W...actually hoping the QB drop off is huge, but none of us knows
3) Virginia (H)--L...we will lose to one of the ACC teams(just how life works big picture) and it cannot be 'cuse or BC.
4) Syracuse (H)--W...See directly above
5) Houston (A)--L...sometimes revenge does matter.
6) Cincy (H)--L...we are 2-9 against them and lost the last 5. I'll pick a win after we have shown anything against them.
7) USF (A)--L...might be better than we think
8) UCF (H)--W...might be worse than we think (if possible)
9) ECU (A)--W...?????
10) Temple (H)--L...they might not be as good, but they beat us EASILY last year, did not look like they broke a sweat doing it, and the 27-3 score could have been much worse. Even if they are not as good, did the gap close that much?
11) BC (A)--W...once again, enough said
12) Tulane (H)--W...home win to wrap it up

My prediction: 7-5 (4-4)

This is where I am with one exception, I think we get one more win against UVA, Temple or USF. Not sure where it comes.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Yeah, when i saw the USF projection, I stopped reading. I don't buy into the hype there at all.

They have USF losing one game, to FSU. Nonsense. I see no indication that they are even the best team in the American. Where is this coming from?

 

[31GuardTrap]

1) Maine (H)--W
2) Navy (A)--W
3) Virginia (H)--W
4) Syracuse (H)--W
5) Houston (A)--L
6) Cincy (H)-W
7) USF (A)--L
8) UCF (H)--W
9) ECU (A)--W
10) Temple (H)--L
11) BC (A)--W
12) Tulane (H)--W

 

[DoctorWho85]

They have USF losing one game, to FSU. Nonsense. I see no indication that they are even the best team in the American. Where is this coming from?

Proximity to talent and probably how they finished the year. They finished really strong last year and Taggart is one of those coaches considered to be a great recruiter. So they think that with the talent they have coming in and how the finished last year they're going to be the same USF as the 2007 team that was at #2

 

[huskymedic]

NoelThomas05 7:07pm via Twitter for iPhone
September 1st please? Thank you #BeatMaine

 

[tduconn]

1) Maine (H)- W
2) Navy (A)- W
3) Virginia (H)- L
4) Syracuse (H)- W
5) Houston (A)- L
6) Cincy (H)- L
7) USF (A)- L
8) UCF (H)- W
9) ECU (A)- W
10) Temple (H)- W
11) BC (A)- W
12) Tulane (H)- W

I've got us at 8-4. Which means we won't go 8-4.

Sidenote: not sure why so many have us losing to Navy. They lose a ton on offense, and will have little time to gel by the time we get them. I think we win that one fairly easily.

I can understand the projection of a Navy win. How many seasons in a row did they have a winning record? 10+? I think that indicates they really have no concerns of having to rebuild after a talented group of athletes leave. Just like major p5 programs, they reload.

 

[huskypantz]

I can understand the projection of a Navy win. How many seasons in a row did they have a winning record? 10+? I think that indicates they really have no concerns of having to rebuild after a talented group of athletes leave. Just like major p5 programs, they reload.

I think you meant "can't". I disagree with that. They lost their entire starting offense and arguably their best player since Staubach in the QB Reynolds. I believe they lost almost half the starting D too. Navy does not reload.

 

[willie99]

our progression continues, I went with 8/9

 

[Redding Husky]

I see almost every game as a toss-up except for a loss at Houston and a win against Maine.

6-6 or 7-5 is likely. With a little luck, 8 or 9 wins is possible. I'll start praying to the football gods in July to give us some karma.

 

[Redding Husky]

Start here - I HATE BC with a passion. That said, many are marking BC down as a W and I don't care how bad they are on paper, they are going to fight tooth and nail to come out with a W against us at Chestnut Hill. If they lose to us up there, the world ends. I still predict a W but not an easy one.

I also hate BC even though one of my best friends from high school went there as an undergraduate and to their law school. They disgust me. From the point-shaving to the blackball situation, I see no redeeming value in that school. Jesuit Schmesuit.

 

[HuskyBandDad]

I see almost every game as a toss-up except for a loss at Houston and a win against Maine.

6-6 or 7-5 is likely. With a little luck, 8 or 9 wins is possible. I'll start praying to the football gods in July to give us some karma.

Start praying in June.

 

[uconnbill]

All of this matters how the offensive line comes together and if they can get steady performances out the skill position players, then 8-9 wins is possible. I have been going between 7-8 and I think that is manageable unless injuries hit hard.

 

[Showballot]

That loss from this year will stick in the back of their minds and affect their confidence. I hope we begin to be their West Virginia so to speak; as for South Florida, they (like Houston) will likely be a top 15 or 20 team next year.

lmao

 

[CTBasketball]

As a regular poster on the basketball board this may sound weird, but I get drunk at Rentschler a lot. In fact, I attended 5/6 home games last year and was annihilated at every one. Does this make me a bad person? Maybe, but I love going to the football games. The Houston game last year might have been the best one ever.

Now, as a reminder, I am "conversational" in football. I know the game, but not the ins and outs like most of you on here. If you want to talk basketball, I can do that in 3 languages.

So, my predictions.

vs. Maine (W) - Can we move this game to a Friday night?

at Navy (W) - Reynolds is gone. Big boy Chris Swain too. They lost so much on offense. Our defense appears to be good again. The option scares me, but I have faith that our defense will be better than their offense. Push game though for sure.

vs. Virginia (W) - Not a big fan of Bronco Mendenhall, we owe him one for last year. This is a trap game though, they're going to get pounded by Oregon the week prior. They return pretty much all their playmakers on offense. This is another early season test for the defense. I think we do okay at home.

vs. Syracuse (W) - duck* Syracuse.

at Houston (L) - Yeah this is a payback game. Hardest game on the schedule possibly. Going to be tough, but I say L.

vs. Cincy (W) - Very hard game as well. But I think we get beat somewhat decently at Houston, so this will make the boys come out strong. Haven't beat Cincy in a while, they're due.

at USF (L) - Will USF be the best team in the AAC? We had trouble last year and their QB Flowers is talented. This is the hardest 3-5 game stretch we've had in a while.

vs. UCF (W) - Trap game at home. Cannot lose focus here to these mongrels. This is a must win game.

at ECU (W) - They're going to be better than last year, but I think we can take them. Our defense will carry us this year, and anything the offense gives that isn't "average" will be gravy. If we can get the offense to click this will be a tough football team to beat. By this time in the year, I'm hoping the offense is finely tuned.

vs. Temple (W) - We will beat them this year. At home as well on a Friday night. Tough to beat the Huskies at the Rent in the dark! Maybe a little early sh!tty weather and we're golden here.

at BC (W) - ESPN has us losing. Doomed.

vs. Tulane (W) - Senior Night. We take it.

Now 10-2 is a little optimistic. I'd say we go anywhere from 7-5 to 10-2. I left out a WTF game, which I think will be Syracuse or Virginia. But good teams don't have WTF losses and I'm hoping we have a good team.

We will be successful this season if we can focus on 3 things: Family, Fishy, and the Green Bay Packers.