I've said over and over again that the defending champ is almost always overrated, with an undue benefit of the doubt that massive personnel losses will be easily replaced.
Only 1 time out of 4 did our preseason ranking translate to our NCAAT seed, and that year (2005) we were probably overseeded.
We will be a good team. Top 15 and a top-4 seed is very likely. But more than that is asking a lot.
2000 and 2005 were both years that injuries really screwed with what could have been good runs.
2000 had finally gotten its act together and then the KEA injury knocked them out in R2. Had they won, they'd have gotten the 8 seed and then the 7 seed in the E8 and then a 5 in the Final Four. Decent chance they would have played MSU for a chance at the title.
2005 had the Rashad injury—and the AJP injury—in the background.
If you're just looking at roster changes, etc., I think 2005 is the closest parallel. Okafor and Gordon were top two scorers, inside out, just as Sanogo and Hawkins. Taliek brought a toughness and defense like Jackson. Then they brought in a Top 10 guy in Gay and had a strong group of rising sophomores (Charlie, Josh, Marcus) who had to step up. I don't think that team beats Illinois or UNC that year, but with a healthy AJP & Rashad they're a real threat.