How close are the top 4 seeds to being locked?

[Bone Dog]

There is also one additional factor that has to enter the minds of the Selection Committee, even though it’s not supposed to be a factor. The memory of last season’s 34 point beat down of UCLA by UConn in the national semifinals is hard to get out of your mind.

I’d think this would encourage the committee to try to arrange the seeds so that the NC game could be ‘The Rematch.’ And for UCLA fans — however many there are — this is the last stop on a very short revenge tour.

 

[oldude]

I’d think this would encourage the committee to try to arrange the seeds so that the NC game could be ‘The Rematch.’ And for UCLA fans — however many there are — this is the last stop on a very short revenge tour.

Thinking back to last season, watching Cori Close get her steps in, pacing back and forth on the sideline helplessly, I have to wonder if deep down she feels that her team just can’t beat UConn. This is Close’s best team ever. She will lose 6 or more talented seniors/grad students. Next year will be a rebuilding year.

This year may be Close’s last, best chance to beat UConn and win her first NCAA championship. That’s a lot of pressure when facing the best team as well as the best coach in WBB.

 

[visitingcock]

You said "who cares where you are seeded?" and then patronizingly concluded that I would disagree with UCONN not being the #1 overall seed if they won out due to a respect or pride issue. What about just on the basis of what is accurate and correct and not by elevating SOS as the one overriding make or break factor? The Selection Committee is supposed to seed the teams absolutely. The suggestion that UCLA gets the #1 seed if they win out due to SOS is in my view absurd as I pointed out in my original post.

Perhaps I should have said”” “who cares where you are seeded among the one seeds?”

The basis of what is “accurate and correct” is what the committee decides based on the criteria that included SOS. Let’s say a mid -major like Princeton for example - plays three quad 1 teams and goes undefeated with the 200th rated schedule. Would they deserve the top overall seed?

BTW I have never said that UConn won’t deserve it if they run the table. I would give them my vote. However, if UCLA RUNS THE TABLE and ends up with 20 quad one wins and a lone loss to a top 4 team , they would certainly not be undeserving. Strength of schedule does matter and it should.

There is no difference in being the top overall seed and the second overall seed. Negligible difference between 1and 3 and the only difference among top 4 is that number 4 has to play number 5.

UCLA and SCar being the 1 and 2 Seeds last year didn’t give them a championship! UConn
won the last game.. that ‘s what matters ers

 

[oldude]

Perhaps I should have said”” “who cares where you are seeded among the one seeds?”

The basis of what is “accurate and correct” is what the committee decides based on the criteria that included SOS. Let’s say a mid -major like Princeton for example - plays three quad 1 teams and goes undefeated with the 200th rated schedule. Would they deserve the top overall seed?

BTW I have never said that UConn won’t deserve it if they run the table. I would give them my vote. However, if UCLA RUNS THE TABLE and ends up with 20 quad one wins and a lone loss to a top 4 team , they would certainly not be undeserving. Strength of schedule does matter and it should.

There is no difference in being the top overall seed and the second overall seed. Negligible difference between 1and 3 and the only difference among top 4 is that number 4 has to play number 5.

UCLA and SCar being the 1 and 2 Seeds last year didn’t give them a championship! UConn
won the last game.. that ‘s what matters ers

In WBB, where there’s only a handful of teams capable of winning the national championship, which I would suggest is 5-6 imo, having the overall #1 seed is an advantage that clearly creates an easier path, at least to the FF.

UConn’s run through the gauntlet last season notwithstanding, every coach wants to be in a bracket where the road to the FF is something they can pretty easily visualize.

Geno has historically taken the position of, “We go where they tell us to go and play who they tell us to play.” UConn players never assemble for a selection show watch party where the cameras see them celebrating once the team is picked.

This is all by design. I have no doubt that UConn players all gather somewhere to watch the selection show and the coaches undoubtedly look closely at the brackets to gauge the challenges ahead almost immediately. But the Huskies want to act with a certain air of nonchalance.

It’s the same reason why UConn never cuts down the nets after winning a regional championship. Been there. Done that. No big deal. Of course, it is a big deal to the players, coaches and fans.

 

[Bone Dog]

This is Close’s best team ever. She will lose 6 or more talented seniors/grad students. Next year will be a rebuilding year.

Understatements of the year 🤣. This season could well be Cori’s finest entry in the underachievement olympics. As for next season, Cori has a magic touch as a recruiter. If I were Sienna’s mom, I’d be worried. Cori could well surround her daughter with a cast of transfers that overshadow her.

 

[BBallF]

In WBB, where there’s only a handful of teams capable of winning the national championship, which I would suggest is 5-6 imo, having the overall #1 seed is an advantage that clearly creates an easier path, at least to the FF.

UConn’s run through the gauntlet last season notwithstanding, every coach wants to be in a bracket where the road to the FF is something they can pretty easily visualize.

Geno has historically taken the position of, “We go where they tell us to go and play who they tell us to play.” UConn players never assemble for a selection show watch party where the cameras see them celebrating once the team is picked.

This is all by design. I have no doubt that UConn players all gather somewhere to watch the selection show and the coaches undoubtedly look closely at the brackets to gauge the challenges ahead almost immediately. But the Huskies want to act with a certain air of nonchalance.

It’s the same reason why UConn never cuts down the nets after winning a regional championship. Been there. Done that. No big deal. Of course, it is a big deal to the players, coaches and fans.

That's exactly right. If you are the fourth number #1 seed you likely play the #5 overall seed to get to the FF whereas the #1 seed plays the #8 overall seed. In addition once that #4 overall seed gets to the FF, they then play the overall #1 seed to get to the championship game. In the Sweet 16 round the #1 seed is playing #16. Seedings matter, match ups matter, and SOS is a factor and should be. Just not the one decisive factor that should take a team that has been ranked #1 from start to finish and is the only unbeaten team in the country and bump them out of the top slot. It's like the argument ad nauseam that the BE is a weak conference and its hurts us in the tourney to which I say looking at last year how much of a factor should it be when you consider how teams are playing, the collective health of a team, their improvement over a season etc.

 

[jabstep]

Should UCLA win out, I have no doubt that Cori Close will make the argument that they have played a tougher schedule and deserve to be the overall #1 seed. But Quad1 wins are only one criteria used by the selection committee. There is a subjective criteria, the so-called “eyeball test” that inevitably comes into play when it’s a close call between 2 or more teams.

This year UCLA has looked good. But UConn has looked even better. There is also one additional factor that has to enter the minds of the Selection Committee, even though it’s not supposed to be a factor. The memory of last season’s 34 point beat down of UCLA by UConn in the national semifinals is hard to get out of your mind. Other than a couple key players, the 2 t eams are largely made up of the same players as last season.

I agree with you that UConn wins by large margins in both the UCLA and SC in last year's tourney is a good gauge of where the teams were at. Did one team get significantly better? Did one team get worse by losing a significant player? We lost Paige and she is hard to replace. But we added a bench. We now have Blanca, K9, Allie, and Jana, who lost her job to Serah. We are finally having a very deep bench after so many years of injuries. So until someone beats us, we will be Number 1.

 

[Phil]

I'm going to respond to your query (At the end of it all, who cares where you were seeded? ) but I need to provide some background.

You and I see this season unfolded very differently.

From the perspective of the South Carolina fan, there was the first part of the season before conference game started, which was largely ho-hum with a couple minor exceptions. You had 14 games prior to playing Alabama. Seven of those games were against triple digit ranked teams where there was no doubt about who is going to win and the only question was by how much. You won those games by an average of 57 points. The other seven games were barely more competitive, on average. Only two games ended up with single-digit margins of victory. So with a couple of exceptions, the 2025 part of the season was looking forward to the conference schedule. Now you are in the conference schedule, and while you are likely to win every single remaining game, most of your remaining opponents are ranked, so it's understandable you might focus on wins and losses up until conference tournament time.

From the perspective of a UConn fan, it's a very different landscape. The Big East is not at the same level as the SEC so UConn tries to schedule some decent teams in the first part of the season. While some of those games weren't as close as the opponents might hope, there were some entertaining games. Once conference season started, let's face it we had two games circled, Notre Dame and Tennessee. Now that both of those are over, nature abhors a vacuum and we want to talk about something. It's bad mojo to assume we will win all our remaining conference games, but it's hard to spend much time debating whether we can beat DePaul.

This also discussions about players returning from injuries but in terms of standings and wins and losses, there is a lot for South Carolina fans to talk about, but UConn fans don't have much to talk about besides seedings.

Revisiting your question:
At the end of it all, who cares where you were seeded?

The literal answer is at the end of it all it doesn't matter much, meaning we the win the national championship or we don't and we probably don't spend a lot of time talking about seeding them but we aren't there so right now, so yes we care about and talk about seeding, because musing about wins and losses isn't much of a conversation at this time for UConn fans – it is for you.

 

[Bigboote]

Understatements of the year 🤣. This season could well be Cori’s finest entry in the underachievement olympics.

As I said in the whom would you like to face thread, I think Cori Close is a good coach, worthy of coaching a P4 team. But I wouldn't say anything more than that. She's had good teams and a few really good teams at UCLA for, what, 15-20 years, and last year was the first time her team ever won a conference championship and the first time they'd made it to a Final Four. She's a good coach up to a point, that point being March.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

As I said in the whom would you like to face thread, I think Cori Close is a good coach, worthy of coaching a P4 team. But I wouldn't say anything more than that. She's had good teams and a few really good teams at UCLA for, what, 15-20 years, and last year was the first time her team ever won a conference championship and the first time they'd made it to a Final Four. She's a good coach up to a point, that point being March.

Can’t watch an entire UCLA game. Close needs to sit her behind still. Makes me dizzy. Can’t imagine a player in a tight game looking for some steady confidence and then see her pacing the sidelines like a tiger in a cage. Help!!!!!!

 

[EricSD]

Not sure I get the anti-Cori sentiment. I don't know off the top of my head historically how UCLA has fared with her as the HC with games they should have won, but lost. I'm guessing that's where some of the "underperforming" comments come from. This season, the only loss was 11 points to Texas. They were down 20 at the half but outplayed Texas in H2, just not by enough to make the gap closer or win. They also beat Tennessee by 22, and were up 10 at halftime, better than we did that first half.

They also beat USC by 34 (we beat them by 28 and SC only beat them by 17), had a fairly close game vs. tOSU (won by 7 while we won by 32). thumped Iowa by 23 (we won by 26).

Anyway, they did what was expected last season making the final 4 and looked just as inept against us as SC did.

BTW I looked up her record. 14 years as HC of UCLA. Took over a pretty bad program she had to build from scratch. 1 WNIT championship, 1 WNIT runner up, 5 sweet 16's, 1 elite 8, 1 final 4, and twice made it to the 2nd round.

 

[Skeets]

I agree with you that UConn wins by large margins in both the UCLA and SC in last year's tourney is a good gauge of where the teams were at. Did one team get significantly better? Did one team get worse by losing a significant player? We lost Paige and she is hard to replace. But we added a bench. We now have Blanca, K9, Allie, and Jana, who lost her job to Serah. We are finally having a very deep bench after so many years of injuries. So until someone beats us, we will be Number 1.

I've said this before, so I'll repeat myself. The King (or Queen as the case may be) of the mountain is the King until someone proves they're not. I know some analytic nerds will disagree with that. Too bad for them.

 

[Bone Dog]

Not sure I get the anti-Cori sentiment. I don't know off the top of my head historically how UCLA has fared with her as the HC with games they should have won, but lost. I'm guessing that's where some of the "underperforming" comments come from. This season, the only loss was 11 points to Texas. They were down 20 at the half but outplayed Texas in H2, just not by enough to make the gap closer or win. They also beat Tennessee by 22, and were up 10 at halftime, better than we did that first half.

I'm not 'anti-Cori.' I think she's been good for UCLA. She's an almost magical recruiter. What she isn't, as far as I can see, is a great teacher of the talent she brings in. Her teams have been weak and played above their heads, and they've been strong (like the past few years) and failed to achieve at the highest level. Does she deserve censure? No, of course not. But the praise she merits should be kept within bounds. In a way, I think something similar about Lindsay at USC -- another talented recruiter who builds teams that don't always fit together well.

 

[DefenseBB]

For @EricSD and @Bone Dog I will qualify I AM ANTI CORI CLOSE. Why? Let's see, just off the top of my head, yes, she recruits well BUT her teams never improve over the course of the season, so what you see in November seems to be what you get in March. She has proven time and again in marquee, season ending games, not to know now to coach in crucial minutes, adjust to the opposing team or elevate her teams offensive schemes.

She's too "rah-rah" for my liking and always thinks HER PLAYERS are the best over everyone (remember the BEST Backcourt claim from two years ago?) Or the one earlier this year about Lauren being the best player in the country? Why all of a sudden did she incur such a huge roster turnover last year of recruits and upper classman? this years squad has 8 seniors and currently only goes 7 players deep. She only has 12 players on the roster so she needs to hit the portal hard. Name me a player she actually developed over their time in Westwood? Rice has underachieved as the form #2 player in the class. Betts got more playing time at UCLA than at Stanford but her jumper and passing are still suspect. Prior to this set of players, she had Michaela Onyenwere who didn't improve during her time either.

So, no offensive scheme, questionable defense, no development during the year, no roster depth, no personal development in the program over their time spent.

Did that cover it for you?

 

[Bone Dog]

For @EricSD and @Bone Dog I will qualify I AM ANTI CORI CLOSE. Why? Let's see, just off the top of my head, yes, she recruits well BUT her teams never improve over the course of the season, so what you see in November seems to be what you get in March. She has proven time and again in marquee, season ending games, not to know now to coach in crucial minutes, adjust to the opposing team or elevate her teams offensive schemes.

She's too "rah-rah" for my liking and always thinks HER PLAYERS are the best over everyone (remember the BEST Backcourt claim from two years ago?) Or the one earlier this year about Lauren being the best player in the country? Why all of a sudden did she incur such a huge roster turnover last year of recruits and upper classman? this years squad has 8 seniors and currently only goes 7 players deep. She only has 12 players on the roster so she needs to hit the portal hard. Name me a player she actually developed over their time in Westwood? Rice has underachieved as the form #2 player in the class. Betts got more playing time at UCLA than at Stanford but her jumper and passing are still suspect. Prior to this set of players, she had Michaela Onyenwere who didn't improve during her time either.

So, no offensive scheme, questionable defense, no development during the year, no roster depth, no personal development in the program over their time spent.

Did that cover it for you?

Since you singled me out in your response I’ll only add that my post said much of what you did without the vitriol. I only add that she (and Lindsay) did succeed in elevating her program from mediocrity to being a highly ranked team. Of course, that merits some praise. But given the status of her program at a major university with vast resources at her disposal, I think UCLA fans should expect at least that much and probably much more. As a UConn fan, I could care less.

And as for not improving her teams across a season, or improving players over several seasons, I already mentioned that she’s not a great teacher. That’s called understatement.

Does that cover it for you?

 

[oldude]

For @EricSD and @Bone Dog I will qualify I AM ANTI CORI CLOSE. Why? Let's see, just off the top of my head, yes, she recruits well BUT her teams never improve over the course of the season, so what you see in November seems to be what you get in March. She has proven time and again in marquee, season ending games, not to know now to coach in crucial minutes, adjust to the opposing team or elevate her teams offensive schemes.

She's too "rah-rah" for my liking and always thinks HER PLAYERS are the best over everyone (remember the BEST Backcourt claim from two years ago?) Or the one earlier this year about Lauren being the best player in the country? Why all of a sudden did she incur such a huge roster turnover last year of recruits and upper classman? this years squad has 8 seniors and currently only goes 7 players deep. She only has 12 players on the roster so she needs to hit the portal hard. Name me a player she actually developed over their time in Westwood? Rice has underachieved as the form #2 player in the class. Betts got more playing time at UCLA than at Stanford but her jumper and passing are still suspect. Prior to this set of players, she had Michaela Onyenwere who didn't improve during her time either.

So, no offensive scheme, questionable defense, no development during the year, no roster depth, no personal development in the program over their time spent.

Did that cover it for you?

The poster child for someone not improving at UCLA is Kiki Rice, the #2 overall recruit in the class of 2022, behind Betts and just ahead of Barker. Rather than go into a lengthy analysis of why I think Rice has not lived up to her potential, I would suggest to anyone who disagrees with me that you rewatch the national semifinal game, focusing on everything Rice does and doesn’t do on the court.

Much of the time she just stands around watching the action, demonstrating a stunning lack of motivation and effort in what should have been the biggest game of her life. Compare that to any UConn player: Paige, Azzi, Sarah, Kaitlyn, Jana, Ice, KK, Ash, etc. Supposedly she had some physical problem (shoulder?). That’s no excuse for not hustling.

 

[ucmiami2]

This is going to be the first of what will likely be a new age of bracketing work for the committee because we now have two super-conferences in the SEC and BigTen and regardless of the team names, those two conferences are going to pack the 16 teams that get their home court for the first weekend of the tournament. The first consideration for the committee is getting the seeding lines correct, the second is to try and make sure teams from the same conference do not play each other before the FF and if that isn't possible to make sure at least 1 and 2 seeds from the same conference don't meet up before the FF.

Things will change somewhat but currently the SEC currently has 7 teams in the top 16 and the BigTen has 5 spots according to the NET, AP, Coaches, and Masseys. The BigTen has 5. The other spots are 1 BE, 1 ACC, 1 Big12, with the last spot either Duke or Baylor. The next month will probably shake some of this out, but the problem will be real for the committee - and especially in relation to the 1 and 2 seeds. It is possible that both the BigTen and the SEC will have 4 1 or 2 seed that should not be placed in the same region (just forget about the 3 and 4 seed issues.)

If as it looks now, the SEC has 2 #1 seeds and 2 #2 seeds - that means the 2 seeds will be moved along their line to play UCLA and Uconn regardless of where their ranking falls. As a Uconn fan, I would certainly prefer to play the 4th SEC team (Vandy) than the third (LSU) in the elite 8 so being the #1 overall seed does have value.

Personally I think Vandy will fall out of the top eight, but that might put 3 BigTen teams in, at which point UCLA will get the SEC entrant and Uconn will get the worst of the BigTen teams regardless of ranking between Uconn and UCLA.

There is a lot of basketball to play for all of these teams and resumes will look different at the end of the regular season, and could change more in the conference tournaments.
UCLA has their longest/toughest road trip to date with Mich/MichSt this weekend, then will repeat it for the conference tourny in Ind.
OSU is on their NW road trip this weekend with Wash and Ore which has tripped up other teams, and they close the season with Mich/MichSt.
Iowa plays home to Mich 2/22, which should be the only challenging game left until the tourny.
Michigan has toughest remaining schedule in the BigTen playing the other top 5 teams - UCLA and MichSt home and Iowa and OSU on the road.
MichSt gets UCLA and OSU home and Mich on the road.

TX has LSU at home, goes on the road against Vandy and TN next weekend, and then repeats to Greensville, SC for the tourny.
Vandy at KY tomorrow at Georgia 2/15 and at TN to end the season, they also play OK, TX, KY, and Bama at home.
SC has road games at LSU, Bama, OleMs, and KY as well as TN at home through Mar, but they stay in state for the tourny.
LSU is at TX tomorrow, home to SC 2/14, at OleMs 2/19, and home to TN 2/26 - they could make a case for a 1 seed in this stretch or drop from from the 2 seeds.

Lou only plays Duke tomorrow as a ranked team the rest of the way, and in the tourny which is 'gasp' in Duluth. GA and not NC.

TCU & Baylor - they have home and home coming up, plus TCU plays home to WV while Baylor plays on the road at TT - don't think any Big 12 team has a chance to crack the top 10, and neither of these teams likely makes top 16 unless one dominates the other.

Didn't both with the back of the SEC - OK, OleMs, KY, TN - OK has the easiest closing schedule and the best chance to make a little noise - they play at Vandy on 2/9, at Bama 2/15, and home for TN on 2/22 win those games and we can talk. TN and KY have a nightmare coming and OleMs is in between the extemes. I just don't see these teams stepping up to make any noise. An upset, yes, a string of good wins, no.

 

[DefenseBB]

Since you singled me out in your response I’ll only add that my post said much of what you did without the vitriol. I only add that she (and Lindsay) did succeed in elevating her program from mediocrity to being a highly ranked team. Of course, that merits some praise. But given the status of her program at a major university with vast resources at her disposal, I think UCLA fans should expect at least that much and probably much more. As a UConn fan, I could care less.

And as for not improving her teams across a season, or improving players over several seasons, I already mentioned that she’s not a great teacher. That’s called understatement.

Does that cover it for you- Actually No, it doesn't. I do have vitriol for Cori (but not for Lindsay) even though both are more "salesman the coach". Cori for all the reasons we both listed, I think is more a 'self-promoter" who I would not want to coach with, send my kid to play for or hire to coach my team. Red flags are everywhere but yet you want to give "praise"? I simply don't get your logic as you noted all the issues but yet your aren't'anti-Cori"? So the praise of elevating the program is your sole reason?

 

[Tngamecock]

UConn and UCLA will be the first and second #1 seeds. The SEC needs to sort itself out to fill out other two.

South Carolina has been so inconsistent this season. Last night Texas A&M was within 7 in the fourth quarter. I think if LSU beats Texas again this week, they will move into 4th. I would not be surprised at all to see LSU take one of the #1 seeds

SC didn’t have two starters…played on cruise control and it was a 7 point game in q4…but never in doubt really. I know that sounds strange, but Dawn left the freshman in to see how they would react to Pressure. When she brought Joyce and Tessa back in, we took back over.

 

[Cuango]

The material point to be made regarding Cori Close is that she is a very good recruiter but not so good as a teaching/game coach. There is a vast gulf between her and someone like Geno, Kim, Jeff, Vic, and Dawn. Those are coaches who are both teachers and game coaches. (Though I must say Dawn lost some of her luster in last year’s title game.) Obviously, there are others as well, just not as well known.

My point is, Great coaches not only recruit well and teach sound basketball skills and how to implement those skills in a game, they also are capable, when needed, of making adjustments and coming up with key plays that help their teams win in adverse situations. They also produce players/teams that can make many of those adjustments themselves.their players tend to be students of the game.

This, imo is where Close is lacking. She can get the players who by virtue of their quality can be a formidable team with very little input from Close, but she is then unable to turn all those individually good players into something more than the sum of their parts. (In a general sense)

UCLA is a very good team! I just question if they would not be a lot better if any one of the coaches listed above were the coach instead.

 

[Bone Dog]

“Actually No, it doesn't. I do have vitriol for Cori (but not for Lindsay) even though both are more "salesman the coach". Cori for all the reasons we both listed, I think is more a 'self-promoter" who I would not want to coach with, send my kid to play for or hire to coach my team. Red flags are everywhere but yet you want to give "praise"? I simply don't get your logic as you noted all the issues but yet your aren't'anti-Cori"? So the praise of elevating the program is your sole reason?”

@DefenseBB it may have to do with our respective starting points. I’m a lifelong college prof entirely on the academic side of my college. This means I have a healthy skepticism verging on distrust of the athletic department. The number of coaches who seem to me to be truly worthy of high praise — the true teachers — is quite small. There’s Geno… and a few others. Cori and Lindsay aren’t members of this group. College athletics inevitably seems to me and my ilk as a corruption of the educational mission of any college. That’s just me expressing the bias of my profession.

As a fan, I see something a bit different. Taking off the blinkers of my academic career, I see kids who grow and learn and develop the sort of character that carries them through a good life. Excellent coaches can do that as much as an academic mentor can. This does not require having great success or winning an NC. It does require organizing and running the machinery of a sports program. And at the larger universities this becomes quite challenging. Cori and Lindsay have not failed at this, and have even done better than their predecessors did. This is not nothing. But it doesn’t merit the highest praise either.

I wouldn’t send my kid to either UCLA or USC and probably for similar reasons to yours. For the record, our daughter went to Cal and majored in Japanese Lit. I wouldn’t even recommend either one to any high school athletes I come across. In fact I feel for Jazzy Kennedy and Saniyah for the baleful error they’ve made in committing to USC. But their lives will not be ruined by this misstep. They’ll get an education and even a platform for entering the W. It will be a middling experience for an athlete, but it won’t be a disaster that scars them for life.

This is why I don’t censure Cori or Lindsay. Excellence has eluded them so far, and so my praise is muted. But they have not wronged their charges. It’s a pretty low bar, but it seems appropriate.

 

[oldude]

This is going to be the first of what will likely be a new age of bracketing work for the committee because we now have two super-conferences in the SEC and BigTen and regardless of the team names, those two conferences are going to pack the 16 teams that get their home court for the first weekend of the tournament. The first consideration for the committee is getting the seeding lines correct, the second is to try and make sure teams from the same conference do not play each other before the FF and if that isn't possible to make sure at least 1 and 2 seeds from the same conference don't meet up before the FF.

Things will change somewhat but currently the SEC currently has 7 teams in the top 16 and the BigTen has 5 spots according to the NET, AP, Coaches, and Masseys. The BigTen has 5. The other spots are 1 BE, 1 ACC, 1 Big12, with the last spot either Duke or Baylor. The next month will probably shake some of this out, but the problem will be real for the committee - and especially in relation to the 1 and 2 seeds. It is possible that both the BigTen and the SEC will have 4 1 or 2 seed that should not be placed in the same region (just forget about the 3 and 4 seed issues.)

If as it looks now, the SEC has 2 #1 seeds and 2 #2 seeds - that means the 2 seeds will be moved along their line to play UCLA and Uconn regardless of where their ranking falls. As a Uconn fan, I would certainly prefer to play the 4th SEC team (Vandy) than the third (LSU) in the elite 8 so being the #1 overall seed does have value.

Personally I think Vandy will fall out of the top eight, but that might put 3 BigTen teams in, at which point UCLA will get the SEC entrant and Uconn will get the worst of the BigTen teams regardless of ranking between Uconn and UCLA.

There is a lot of basketball to play for all of these teams and resumes will look different at the end of the regular season, and could change more in the conference tournaments.
UCLA has their longest/toughest road trip to date with Mich/MichSt this weekend, then will repeat it for the conference tourny in Ind.
OSU is on their NW road trip this weekend with Wash and Ore which has tripped up other teams, and they close the season with Mich/MichSt.
Iowa plays home to Mich 2/22, which should be the only challenging game left until the tourny.
Michigan has toughest remaining schedule in the BigTen playing the other top 5 teams - UCLA and MichSt home and Iowa and OSU on the road.
MichSt gets UCLA and OSU home and Mich on the road.

TX has LSU at home, goes on the road against Vandy and TN next weekend, and then repeats to Greensville, SC for the tourny.
Vandy at KY tomorrow at Georgia 2/15 and at TN to end the season, they also play OK, TX, KY, and Bama at home.
SC has road games at LSU, Bama, OleMs, and KY as well as TN at home through Mar, but they stay in state for the tourny.
LSU is at TX tomorrow, home to SC 2/14, at OleMs 2/19, and home to TN 2/26 - they could make a case for a 1 seed in this stretch or drop from from the 2 seeds.

Lou only plays Duke tomorrow as a ranked team the rest of the way, and in the tourny which is 'gasp' in Duluth. GA and not NC.

TCU & Baylor - they have home and home coming up, plus TCU plays home to WV while Baylor plays on the road at TT - don't think any Big 12 team has a chance to crack the top 10, and neither of these teams likely makes top 16 unless one dominates the other.

Didn't both with the back of the SEC - OK, OleMs, KY, TN - OK has the easiest closing schedule and the best chance to make a little noise - they play at Vandy on 2/9, at Bama 2/15, and home for TN on 2/22 win those games and we can talk. TN and KY have a nightmare coming and OleMs is in between the extemes. I just don't see these teams stepping up to make any noise. An upset, yes, a string of good wins, no.

A slight correction. The selection committee attempts to keep teams from the same conference from playing each other until the Sweet 16, if they have played 2 times during the season, until the Elite 8 if they have played 3 times, and for any teams that have played just once, the selection committee keeps them from playing each other until the 2nd round.

 

[ucmiami2]

With both USC and UCLA, I think LA metro area is a huge help in recruiting, especially with NIL in play. And I think both coaches have done a great job recruiting for programs that have a long history of inconsistent results.

Cori has a decade of consistency with only one bad season in that stretch - most of that is based on the talent she has brought in, and I agree she isn't a great game coach, nor do I think she is a great teacher, but her teams have played the second weekend of the NCAA 8 times, have made it that far only 3 times before, and her 1 FF is one more than any other coach has done. There 95% of active coaches in D1 would be thrilled with that. UCLA is still all about FB and MBB and she is trying to build something in a market that is not short on other entertainment options!

Lindsay has also done well for a program that hasn't made any noise since the late stage AIAW and early years of the NCAA under Linda Sharp with the iconic Cheryl Miller. They had never made it past the first weekend of the NCAAs since Cheryl Millers first season as a HC in the 1993-4 season and had only had 5 NCAA bids in the following 30 years! Lindsay got a bid in her second year, and made the elite 8 in her following two years. She took over at Cal (another school with little WBB focus and a WNIT second round pedigre) and took them to a FF in her second season and to NCAA bids 7 of 8 years. We played a wounded team last year in the E8 and that team then imploded and this year it is a struggle. I really do not have a handle on her as a coach to be honest - they made a good showing in the E8 considering their star was out - certainly a tougher game than either UCLA or SC.

Both these coaches are also dealing with the implosion of the Pac10 and transition to playing in a predominantly mid-western conference, with resulting long road trips across multiple time zones. With that upheaval, that they were rank 1 and 2 in the conference their first year and were both #1 seeds in the NCAA was impressive - that they both ran into Uconn the eventual dominant champion is just bad luck. UCLA is likely repeating last years success this year while USC is still missing their injured star while also suffering an exodus of players.

 

[ucmiami2]

A slight correction. The selection committee attempts to keep teams from the same conference from playing each other until the Sweet 16, if they have played 2 times during the season, until the Elite 8 if they have played 3 times, and for any teams that have played just once, the selection committee keeps them from playing each other until the 2nd round.

I believe you are incorrect - I believe all things being possible, they don't want 1/2 seeds meeting before the FF, but we will see what happens this year - If they have a by-chalk bracket with an E8 between two SEC teams or between two BigTen teams, I am sure we will hear the howls of outrage!

 

[huskiemaniac]

Even UConn is not quite a lock. Remember a couple of years ago when we lost to Marquette and Saint John’s right at the end of the season? If something like that were to happen… we would get bumped to the 2 line imo.

That’s not happening this season…