How close are the top 4 seeds to being locked?

[Phil]

And you left out a loss to WV rank #22 on Feb 1st by 10. Anyhow - yeah the voters are not to be trusted.

I did look at the loss to West Virginia , but failed to include the sentence which I created in my head but didn't add to the list, which is interesting because it's probably the most perfect example. A lost to a team with a Massey ranking of 17 is understandable if your ranking is 19 but it is an upset if your ranking is 12.

So yes I'd say we are in pretty much agreement. It could easily be the resume of a team also receiving votes. I accept that 19 is plausible but 12? not really.

 

[rugbymate]

Assuming Vandy is the 4th seed , my recollection Is that the5th seed would be in their bracket . As of now, that would probably be Texas or LSU. Assuming we get through to the Final Four, we will have a difficult team to play. Probably rather play Vandy.

 

[Phil]

I'll add that Baylor is yet another example of something that I think exemplifies the way AP voters address their "job". Each week they look at the wins and losses in the last week and use that to justify moving teams up in the case of a major upset win, down a lot if it's a loss that shouldn't have happened but may be even down if it's sort of understandable but it still a loss. Some teams such as Baylor move up not because the voter affirmatively move them up but because they moved teams ahead of them down.
I don't say this in the context of its being a horrible approach, but it does mean this seems to be little evidence that every once in a while you take a hard look at each team and decide if they really deserve to be where you have them. That's why I wrote that meandering text, looking at Baylors ranking in week one and monitoring what happened each subsequent week. Each movement on its own seem defensible, but in the aggregate it left them just outside the top 10, but as you say with the resume of a team getting some votes.

 

[Phil]

Assuming Vandy is the 4th seed , my recollection Is that the5th seed would be in their bracket . As of now, that would probably be Texas or LSU. Assuming we get through to the Final Four, we will have a difficult team to play. Probably rather play Vandy.

I still think Vandy's on the outside looking in (in terms of one seeds). They aren't there yet, and I don't think they can possibly be viewed as a one seed unless they run the table. By that I don't just mean regular-season I mean win the conference tournament, which means Texas, LSU and South Carolina all will have to have at least one more loss in some cases two. A likely candidate for the fifth seed would be which of those stumbles the most.

 

[Bone Dog]

I still think Vandy's on the outside looking in (in terms of one seeds). They aren't there yet, and I don't think they can possibly be viewed as a one seed unless they run the table. By that I don't just mean regular-season I mean win the conference tournament, which means Texas, LSU and South Carolina all will have to have at least one more loss in some cases two. A likely candidate for the fifth seed would be which of those stumbles the most.

Things are likely to change in the next few weeks. But with wins over Texas and LSU, and a loss to SC, it’s hard to know who would take that 4th #1 seed if not Vandy. Can you really put Texas ahead of them right now after this beat down? Maybe a case could be made that the win over LSU was too close to hand that seed to Vandy instead of them. But since LSU’s OOC schedule was as weak as Vandy’s, that’s not an open and shut case.

Things are likely to change, but as of right now…

 

[ucmiami2]

Assuming Vandy is the 4th seed , my recollection Is that the5th seed would be in their bracket . As of now, that would probably be Texas or LSU. Assuming we get through to the Final Four, we will have a difficult team to play. Probably rather play Vandy.

If, as looks likely, 4 SEC teams are in the top 8 spots for the NCAA, each will be placed in a separate bracket regardless of the S-curve.
This means UCLA and Uconn will each play an SEC team in their bracket as a 2 seed.

 

[Cuango]

I actually hope she can stay there long term, she very entertaining for me. I giggle watching her because all I can see is Chris Farley as motivational speaker Matt Foley.

I wonder if she yells at the ref after a call against her team, I wish you’d just shut your yap!!” Or at her players “keep playing like that and you’e gonna end up living in a van down by the river!!” I’m never going to be able to look at her now without that image popping up! 😂

 

[Cuango]

Like Bone Dog, I'm not anti-Cori. I said she's a good coach. I thought Dawn Staley was a good (not great) coach till she won a NCAA championship. I'm on the Dawn bandwagon now. I'll be on the Cori bandwagon if she wins a natty too.

Just because you don’t think she’s a great coach doesn’t make you “anti-Cori”. I think she’s a good coach, just not a great one. She is obviously a great recruiter, it’s what she does with those players (both long term and in-game) that makes me question her bona fides. I have nothing against her personally and if she were to win the title, I’d be as happy as I could be for her. (Through a haze of tears 🙄)

Clearly, she could (and might) actually win it all this season! If she does/did though, it would not change my perception of her coaching ability in the slightest. Winning a title does not suddenly change reality! Reality that is based on a much more comprehensive set of data than one game, FF, or season. We have seen other coaches win titles who could never be confused with the great ones. Could she still become a “great” coach? Perhaps, though very doubtful. Everyone can learn though.

I will say this.. Her team is a real threat to win it all this season and anyone (UConn fan or not) who does not take her and her team very seriously could be in for a big disappointment! Obviously, that team revolves around Betts, (who is often, in my view, not given as much respect as she is due) but they have lots of weapons who, on a given night can make them almost unbeatable! Fortunately, they do not seem to be able to play consistently at that top level but they always present a threat that requires a smart game plan and players that can (and will) execute that plan. Betts though, is a huge problem that most teams simply cannot handle.

 

[Cuango]

No offense to Vanderbilt. But if they are the 4th one seed. Being the number one overall seed becomes pretty important.

You can get to the national championship game with your top obstacle being Vanderbilt? Wow!

Not sure why you are seemingly dismissive of Vanderbilt but I think they have become a real threat. They have a (I believe) a great coach, a transcendent player, and a very good supporting cast. Are they on par with SC, UCLA, or UConn? No, but I guarantee you none of those teams coaches are lining up to play them in a one and done tournament setting! I think they are becoming a very scary team and one I freely admit, hope we do not have to face!

 

[Cuango]

I'll add that Baylor is yet another example of something that I think exemplifies the way AP voters address their "job". Each week they look at the wins and losses in the last week and use that to justify moving teams up in the case of a major upset win, down a lot if it's a loss that shouldn't have happened but may be even down if it's sort of understandable but it still a loss. Some teams such as Baylor move up not because the voter affirmatively move them up but because they moved teams ahead of them down.
I don't say this in the context of its being a horrible approach, but it does mean this seems to be little evidence that every once in a while you take a hard look at each team and decide if they really deserve to be where you have them. That's why I wrote that meandering text, looking at Baylors ranking in week one and monitoring what happened each subsequent week. Each movement on its own seem defensible, but in the aggregate it left them just outside the top 10, but as you say with the resume of a team getting some votes.

I think Baylor is still benefitting from the “traditional power” reputation that still, (though fading faster now) tends to benefit them when they are statistically even with teams without that former reputation. I think voters tend to favor them over other, equal or better teams because it is an easier way to decide. “Well… Baylor has been here before, they know how to win etc….
This is obviously fading as Collen continues to fall woefully short of the Mulkey dynasty but I think it still has an effect. #12 was, I agree, ridiculous.

 

[ec33]

If, as looks likely, 4 SEC teams are in the top 8 spots for the NCAA, each will be placed in a separate bracket regardless of the S-curve.
This means UCLA and Uconn will each play an SEC team in their bracket as a 2 seed.

They don't separate them that late in the tournament. They make an effort to avoid conference opponents the first weekend -- but with 20 school conferences those rules are long gone.

 

[YKCornelius]

They don't separate them that late in the tournament. They make an effort to avoid conference opponents the first weekend -- but with 20 school conferences those rules are long gone.

ec33, no, those rules are not long gone. The committee actually separate them right up front when the bracket is presented on Selection Sunday.

@ucmiami2 is correct. If the top four teams in any conference are in the top four seed lines, the committee will place them in different regional pods, per the NCAA guidelines:

• Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regional pods if they are seeded on the first four lines.

 

[ec33]

ec33, no, those rules are not long gone. The committee actually separate them right up front when the bracket is presented on Selection Sunday.

@ucmiami2 is correct. If the top four teams in any conference are in the top four seed lines, the committee will place them in different regional pods, per the NCAA guidelines:

• Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regional pods if they are seeded on the first four lines.

Ok, thanks. Weird rule when they don't do it early in the tournament but I should know better than to expect bureaucrats to be consistent.

 

[hoopsfan22]

UCLA overall #1, followed by UConn, then the top 2 SEC teams one of which will be South Carolina.

 

[Bills Fan]

UCLA overall #1, followed by UConn, then the top 2 SEC teams one of which will be South Carolina.

"Shirley", you jest! The Selection Committee is not going to lower the seed of an undefeated, defending National Champion team and overtake them with a team that embarrassed them in the FF last year, by an all-time record margin!

 

[hoopsfan22]

"Shirley", you jest! The Selection Committee is not going to lower the seed of an undefeated, defending National Champion team and overtake them with a team that embarrassed them in the FF last year, by an all-time record margin!

I think the committee will put a lot weight on quad 1 record.

 

[oldude]

I think the committee will put a lot weight on quad 1 record.

To a point, that is correct. While everyone wants to talk about UCLA’s quad 1 wins, including Big 10 Network’s Autumn Johnson, who just determined that UCLA would be the overall #1 seed (big surprise-sarcasm intended), there is little discussion over Quad 1 losses and the impact on the “total body of work” criteria.

UCLA’s loss to a very good TX team in LV by 11 was not necessarily an upset. But it was a loss nonetheless. When the committee puts UCLA side by side with UConn, that loss will stick out like a sore thumb. There is no metric for how much weight any Quad1 loss has against however many Quad1 wins UCLA ends up with. It is one of those “subjective” issues that the committee has to evaluate as they seed teams.

 

[JellyBean]

UCLA overall #1, followed by UConn, then the top 2 SEC teams one of which will be South Carolina.

I see what you are doing but UCLA won't be the overall #1 seed. The committee would not place UCLA over UConn. Not going to happen.

 

[packwrap]

I am not saying they are not good. But I am saying for a spot in the national championship game; UConn would love to see them.

By the time the conference tourneys are over, whoever gets the #3 and #4 seeds will have further proven themselves.

If it's still Vandy, they will have earned the spot.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

I think the committee will put a lot weight on quad 1 record.

[Duplicate post from 'Vandy Takes Down TX']

What the 12-member Committee does in seeding is do a rolling hypothesis testing based on the overall body of work (using team sheets and other information).

Below is the body of work for UConn and UCLA. Some posters make it seem that UConn plays a much less competitive schedule than UCLA. UConn does not. UConn’s and UCLA’s schedules are fairly comparable.

• 1. UConn | Torvik Schedule
• 2. UCLA | Torvik Schedule

UCLA has a blemish (an 11-point loss to TX) vs undefeated UConn. They both won vs Michigan by 3 points — UConn in November and UCLA in February. UConn has more dominant wins than UCLA vs other common opponents (Iowa, Ohio State, TN).

• There is a reason to reject the hypothesis that UCLA is the overall #1 team;
• There is no compelling reason to reject the hypothesis that UConn is the #1 overall seed.

 

[DefenseBB]

While I doubt the committee would find a reason to put UCLA #1 overall, it is clear that these two are the top 2 by far, with SC a distant 3rd by all the criteria they are to utilize. Quad 1 wins is just one of many criteria that far too many posters seem to over-prioritizing. To me, I am a bit indifferent as it only impacts the color of the uniform if the two teams were to meet in the final, which I doubt will happen. While I get the #2 seed would in theory play better seeded teams, the gap to the top 3 teams is pretty wide so I am not concerned (as opposed to last year as an example).

But as I said, I highly doubt UConn will be demoted from the overall #1 seed. It is an interesting discussion for the top 8 though…and to see how it plays out including the big matchup tonight of Dawn vs Kim….and the massive contrast in coaches outfits- Sequins vs. Sweats!

 

[skidroe]

Vandy crushed Texas the other night.......I'm just sayin'!

 

[Phil]

"Shirley", you jest! The Selection Committee is not going to lower the seed of an undefeated, defending National Champion team and overtake them with a team that embarrassed them in the FF last year, by an all-time record margin!

I don't think the selection committee will give any weight to defending NC. Nor should they.

 

[meyers7]

I think the top 3 seeds are set. UCONN, UCLA and S. Carolina. Who the 4th is, still to be determined. Texas, Vandy, LSU most likely fight it out for #4.

 

[visitingcock]

I think the top 3 seeds are set. UCONN, UCLA and S. Carolina. Who the 4th is, still to be determined. Texas, Vandy, LSU most likely fight it out for #4.

Still
Four games left in the regular season. Thiese SEC teams could all cut each other’s throats and could see a loss or two to the second level teams like Okie, old. Miss, Bama and Tennessee.

Then there’s the conference tourney,

I guess I’m saying don’t count Michigan out.