Good question.
Looking at past seasons, I checked to verify if my perception matched some facts.
21-22: 17-3 in their last 20.
20-21: Just a bad team.
19-20: 9-4 finish to the season
18-19: Awful
17-18: 8-5 finish to the season
16-17: 9-3 finish to the season
15-16: 5-2 finish to the season
14-15: 11-2 finish to the season
So, I guess in summary, when Brey has good teams, they tend to finish well. That might not mean a long tournament run, but when he has teams good enough to contend for the tournament, they tend to enter the tournament on a hot streak rather than a cold spell.
I also agree with you that Michigan State makes more sense.