OT: - How bad has ACC been this year? | The Boneyard

OT: How bad has ACC been this year?

Hey Adrien!

Hey Adrien!

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It didn't occur to me how bad the ACC is this year until recently when looking at the Bubble Watch.

Of course Duke is excellent, but if the season ended today, it looks like Wake Forest (good for Steve Forbes!) and Notre Dame are the only surefire teams getting in.

On a purely statistical level, here's how the ACC ranks according to KenPom

1645717042619.png


Just barely better than the MWC (which is very good this year) and its rating is closer to the AAC (2.12) than the Big East (3.21).

We knew going into the season that BC (kudos to Earl Grant, they've been better than expected) and Pitt were going to suck, but Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville and Clemson have really disappointed...I would even argue Florida State has not met expectations too.
 
I just re-visited the preseason AP Top 25. UNC, Florida State, and Virginia were all in there. Of those 3 teams, maybe UNC will make it to the tournament? Florida State and Virginia aren't even really close to the bubble. Crazy.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Whoever put Virginia in the preseason AP is an idiot.

The team lost Murphy, Huff, Hauser, Woldentensae, Morsell and McKoy.
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Most of the writeups on us were something along the lines of "UVA lost 99.9% of it's offense and defense, but we can't imagine a tony bennett led squad not being ranked"....umm ok. Anyone who actually pays attention knew this was going to be a rough season for UVA, which actually got a bit hidden by how awful the ACC as a whole has been.
 
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Hey Adrien! said:
Of course Duke is excellent, but if the season ended today, it looks like Wake Forest (good for Steve Forbes!) and Notre Dame are the only surefire teams getting in.
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When compared to the rest of the ACC, yes Duke is really good. They will still get 4 or more teams in.
 
huskiesNhoos said:
Most of the writeups on us were something along the lines of "UVA lost 99.9% of it's offense and defense, but we can't imagine a tony bennett led squad not being ranked"....umm ok. Anyone who actually pays attention knew this was going to be a rough season for UVA, which actually got a bit hidden by how awful the ACC as a whole has been.
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Sad - same thinking as "I think Duke will win the ACC regular season because I can't imagine a Coach K team that wouldn't win it".

Oh, wait, they haven't won it in over a decade.
 
Could those who follow the ACC tell us if this is just a blip or a trend? And the only strong team is losing their coach. How good is that?
 
Waquoit said:
Could those who follow the ACC tell us if this is just a blip or a trend? And the only strong team is losing their coach. How good is that?
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I don't follow the ACC but it would be reasonable to suggest that there are cycles in CBB and they happen to be on a downward cycle. UConn and the BE has been subject to them as well. They'll be back. Since you posted this, probably next year.
 
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With Houston, Cincy and UCF leaving, nobody can argue we're not blessed to be outta there
 
Waquoit said:
Could those who follow the ACC tell us if this is just a blip or a trend? And the only strong team is losing their coach. How good is that?
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Duke is still good, but likely will be down soon because K is leaving.
UNC is down because Roy left.
Syracuse is down because Jim hasn't left yet
UVA is down just based on a recruiting cycle. They'll be back soon.
FSU is down on a recruiting cycle due to early entrants. They'll be back soon.
Louisville is down because Chris Mack crashed and burned.

The rest of the programs have been beaten down by the above over time and are about the same as usual, which is to say not that great.
 
auror said:
Duke is still good, but likely will be down soon because K is leaving.
UNC is down because Roy left.
Syracuse is down because Jim hasn't left yet
UVA is down just based on a recruiting cycle. They'll be back soon.
FSU is down on a recruiting cycle due to early entrants. They'll be back soon.
Louisville is down because Chris Mack crashed and burned.

The rest of the programs have been beaten down by the above over time and are about the same as usual, which is to say not that great.
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I don't have much hatred towards Syracuse like most on the Boneyard, but that part made me laugh out loud, LMFAO
 
ToolzieFan said:
53eig.ht

The ACC Ran Men’s Basketball. Now It’s Getting Run Out Of The Tournament.

The once-powerful conference would like to forget about this year.
53eig.ht 53eig.ht
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The ACC really messed up its identity. It expanded north geographically but not effectively. It expanded south academically (L-ville). It is the complete opposite of what the B1G is. It's got publics, privates, catholics, commuters. duke is duke but it will drop off somewhat when K leaves. If UCONN, Maryland, and maybe even a Rutgers or Villanova filled in the gaps, it would be in a better basketball position. I still maintain if it had expanded with 6-8 Big East programs at one time it would have been a far better result. Those northeastern schools just don't belong in the current model. That's a shame

acc-map-complete.jpg
 
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Kolumbo said:
The ACC really messed up its identity. It expanded north geographically but not effectively. It expanded south academically (L-ville). It is the complete opposite of what the B1G is. It's got publics, privates, catholics, commuters. duke is duke but it will drop off somewhat when K leaves. If UCONN, Maryland, and maybe even a Rutgers or Villanova filled in the gaps, it would be in a better basketball position. I still maintain if it had expanded with 6-8 Big East programs at one time it would have been a far better result. Those northeastern schools just don't belong in the current model. That's a shame

View attachment 73751
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Football drove the bus and it went off the road a good bit in the aggregate.
 
UofCT said:
We were #21 preseason in 2006-07 after losing Gay, Armstrong, Boone, Williams, Anderson, Brown, and Nelson.
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And entered the 06-07 season with the #4 ranked freshman class w/ Dyson, Thabeet, Wiggins, Stix, Kelly, Gavin Edwards and the Real Dove. The season was also the debut of AJ Price plus they had Jeff Adrien returning.

Virginia's '21 class was ranked 81st. Franklin/Gardner were good transfers, but you can't compare what UConn had coming in vs. UVA.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
It didn't occur to me how bad the ACC is this year until recently when looking at the Bubble Watch.

Of course Duke is excellent, but if the season ended today, it looks like Wake Forest (good for Steve Forbes!) and Notre Dame are the only surefire teams getting in.

On a purely statistical level, here's how the ACC ranks according to KenPom

View attachment 73704

Just barely better than the MWC (which is very good this year) and its rating is closer to the AAC (2.12) than the Big East (3.21).

We knew going into the season that BC (kudos to Earl Grant, they've been better than expected) and Pitt were going to suck, but Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville and Clemson have really disappointed...I would even argue Florida State has not met expectations too.
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So bad that Notre Dame looks good
 
LBird33 said:
So bad that Notre Dame looks good
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Notre Dame, along with Michigan State, is a squad I usually "trend up" in March. Brey has no depth, but his top-seven is very good and his teams tend to play better later in the season.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Notre Dame, along with Michigan State, is a squad I usually "trend up" in March. Brey has no depth, but his top-seven is very good and his teams tend to play better later in the season.
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Normally yes, and maybe we will find out if that is true after we reflect in April. However, the games I have seen of them they look like soft p---ies, especially in their home game against Boston College where they were getting pushed around and needed 2 OTs to secure the victory.
 
Hey Adrien! said:
Notre Dame, along with Michigan State, is a squad I usually "trend up" in March. Brey has no depth, but his top-seven is very good and his teams tend to play better later in the season.
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Can I ask why you usually trend them up? They’ve made the Sweet 16 three times since 1987: 2003, 2015, and 2016, although the last two years were Elite Eight runs.

Michigan St. makes more sense, since they have made the Sweet 16 a total of 14 times since 1998, along with eight trips to the Final Four in that time.
 
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Hey Adrien! said:
And entered the 06-07 season with the #4 ranked freshman class w/ Dyson, Thabeet, Wiggins, Stix, Kelly, Gavin Edwards and the Real Dove. The season was also the debut of AJ Price plus they had Jeff Adrien returning.

Virginia's '21 class was ranked 81st. Franklin/Gardner were good transfers, but you can't compare what UConn had coming in vs. UVA.
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Post/handle
 
As s conference, it was always a bit overrated. Two great teams, one good team, one mediocre, and a bunch of trash. But this year is worse than it has been in years.
 
Who are they going to recruit next to try and buy the best basketball conference in the country?

With K gone and UNC flailing, that ship has sailed without ever reaching that pinnacle

The original BEAST earned that honor
 
huskypantz said:
I don't follow the ACC but it would be reasonable to suggest that there are cycles in CBB and they happen to be on a downward cycle. UConn and the BE has been subject to them as well. They'll be back. Since you posted this, probably next year.
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Could it be the ACC’s academic standards? It’s the nice guy gentlemen’s league, coaches don’t throw punches at the end of the game. Many (but not all) of the schools presidents are royal snobs that still hate the upstart UConn.
 
ToolzieFan said:
Can I ask why you usually trend them up? They’ve made the Sweet 16 three times since 1987: 2003, 2015, and 2016, although the last two years were Elite Eight runs.

Michigan St. makes more sense, since they have made the Sweet 16 a total of 14 times since 1998, along with eight trips to the Final Four in that time.
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Good question.

Looking at past seasons, I checked to verify if my perception matched some facts.

21-22: 17-3 in their last 20.
20-21: Just a bad team.
19-20: 9-4 finish to the season
18-19: Awful
17-18: 8-5 finish to the season
16-17: 9-3 finish to the season
15-16: 5-2 finish to the season
14-15: 11-2 finish to the season

So, I guess in summary, when Brey has good teams, they tend to finish well. That might not mean a long tournament run, but when he has teams good enough to contend for the tournament, they tend to enter the tournament on a hot streak rather than a cold spell.

I also agree with you that Michigan State makes more sense.
 
CTFAN4LIFE said:
Football drove the bus and it went off the road a good bit in the aggregate.
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Along with ESPN the ACC took a page from Dave Gavitt and plucked football and basketball programs along with regional tv audiences from the East.
 
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