Handicapping the 2025-26 POY candidates

[DefenseBB]

The list of realistic POY candidates is pretty limited and with Juju out for the bulk of the season, I wanted to outline my list of potential players for this award. Being great is not the only criteria, you have to have a media presence and be on a good team. In the history of the award, since 1983, only 2 players won the award on a team that did not reach at least a ONE final four during their career-Megan Gustafson and Sue Wicks (Rutgers 1988). While the vote takes place before the NCAAT, Gustafson's team was #2 seed as was Wicks Rutgers team. That said, here is my top ten and reasoning:
1. Lauren Betts, UCLA-a returning 1st Team AA on a returning Final Four squad. She will get plenty of media attention and without any real challenges in the Big 10, she has to be the front runner. Team prediction-Big 10 titles, Top 2 ranking by the time of the selection show.
2. Hannah Hidalgo, ND-also a returning 2 time 1st Team AA. However, ND will be not as talented this year and Hannah took a "media hit" with her spat with Miles and with Miles transferring out (along with many other players transferring). Top 4 ACC team, possible top 16 seed but...
3. Sarah Strong, UConn- a 2nd Team AA on the defending National Champion. She too will get plenty of media attention but as only a sophomore, while her all-around game should put her 1st, she will be relegated due to her second year standing. Big East titles, Top 2 Ranking by the time of the selection show.
4. Madison Booker, Texas-is a returning 2 time AA (one 1st team, one 2nd team) on a Final Four squad. Texas is a talented team who could return to the Final Four but the SEC is much deeper with SC, LSU and Oklahoma all chomping at the bit. Plus TN/Ole Miss squads who got a massive haul of Portal players or top recruits. My guess is 2nd in the SEC and top 6 seed.
5. Ta'Niya Latson, SC-is 3-time returning AA player (1-2nd team and 2-Honorable Mention) and is now on a strong team who will garner much need media attention for her. How well she fits into a more structured offense and a required defensive scheme will be interesting.
6. Olivia Miles, TCU-also a 3-time returning AA players (2-2nd team, 1-HM) who also transferred. The TCU team is reloading so I view their ceiling at the Elite 8 or Sweet 16 level. My guess is top SEC team, Top 3 seed.
7. Flau'Jae Johnson, LSU-a 3rd Team AA selection last year, she garners a lot of media attention (though I am not convinced she warrants it all). This team will be good but is behind SC and Texas but if they surprise and she is the leader, she could jump up. The other problem is she has Williams, Fulwiley and 3 elite 2025 recruits on this team and Johnson is not a ball-sharer so it will be interesting. My guess is 4th in SEC and top 12 seed
8. Raegan Beers, Oklahoma-a 2 -time returning AA player (1-3rd team, 1-HM) on a talented team with a noted high scoring offense. My guess is 3rd in the SEC and top 10 NCAAT seed
9. Azzi Fudd, UConn-the Final Four MOP and former #1 ranked player in the 2021 class. Up to this point Azzi has been beset by injuries so the full display of her skills has been limited. That said, she needs to stay healthy, score, assist, steals and continue to lead the UConn team to garner enough attention away from the players higher up on this list. I do think she can and will achieve her first AA selection this year but National POY might be a bridge too far....we shall see. Big East titles and Top 2 seed.
10. Mikayla Blakes, Vanderbilt-a 3rd Team AA player as a freshman, she will be given a lot of time and opportunity to score and score often, but in the SEC, she will be overshadowed by the better teams listed above. This team has gotten better but 6th in the SEC and it will not be a top 16 seed.

Other players to watch-Fulwiley, LSU; Harmon, Texas; Kitts and Edwards, SC, Rice and Leger-Walker at UCLA and Audi Crooks ISU.

Thoughts?

 

[Bjbod]

I like Sarah Strong. Betts has some skills but it's the 6'7" part that really carries her. Hidalgo fun to watch but was disappointed in how little she tried to include her teammates in the recent USA tourney win.

 

[Baller29]

Flaujae is over rated I don’t see the hype about her. I’m not convinced she even makes it to the W

That team chemistry between Flau’Jae, Fulwiley and Williams is gonna be a hot mess. No one is going to share the ball

 

[DefenseBB]

Maybe I should have created a poll one with Sarah and Azzi and one without…

 

[Bone Dog]

The list of realistic POY candidates is pretty limited and with Juju out for the bulk of the season, I wanted to outline my list of potential players for this award. Being great is not the only criteria, you have to have a media presence and be on a good team. In the history of the award, since 1983, only 2 players won the award on a team that did not reach at least a ONE final four during their career-Megan Gustafson and Sue Wicks (Rutgers 1988). While the vote takes place before the NCAAT, Gustafson's team was #2 seed as was Wicks Rutgers team. That said, here is my top ten and reasoning:
1. Lauren Betts, UCLA-a returning 1st Team AA on a returning Final Four squad. She will get plenty of media attention and without any real challenges in the Big 10, she has to be the front runner. Team prediction-Big 10 titles, Top 2 ranking by the time of the selection show.
2. Hannah Hidalgo, ND-also a returning 2 time 1st Team AA. However, ND will be not as talented this year and Hannah took a "media hit" with her spat with Miles and with Miles transferring out (along with many other players transferring). Top 4 ACC team, possible top 16 seed but...
3. Sarah Strong, UConn- a 2nd Team AA on the defending National Champion. She too will get plenty of media attention but as only a sophomore, while her all-around game should put her 1st, she will be relegated due to her second year standing. Big East titles, Top 2 Ranking by the time of the selection show.
4. Madison Booker, Texas-is a returning 2 time AA (one 1st team, one 2nd team) on a Final Four squad. Texas is a talented team who could return to the Final Four but the SEC is much deeper with SC, LSU and Oklahoma all chomping at the bit. Plus TN/Ole Miss squads who got a massive haul of Portal players or top recruits. My guess is 2nd in the SEC and top 6 seed.
5. Ta'Niya Latson, SC-is 3-time returning AA player (1-2nd team and 2-Honorable Mention) and is now on a strong team who will garner much need media attention for her. How well she fits into a more structured offense and a required defensive scheme will be interesting.
6. Olivia Miles, TCU-also a 3-time returning AA players (2-2nd team, 1-HM) who also transferred. The TCU team is reloading so I view their ceiling at the Elite 8 or Sweet 16 level. My guess is top SEC team, Top 3 seed.
7. Flau'Jae Johnson, LSU-a 3rd Team AA selection last year, she garners a lot of media attention (though I am not convinced she warrants it all). This team will be good but is behind SC and Texas but if they surprise and she is the leader, she could jump up. The other problem is she has Williams, Fulwiley and 3 elite 2025 recruits on this team and Johnson is not a ball-sharer so it will be interesting. My guess is 4th in SEC and top 12 seed
8. Raegan Beers, Oklahoma-a 2 -time returning AA player (1-3rd team, 1-HM) on a talented team with a noted high scoring offense. My guess is 3rd in the SEC and top 10 NCAAT seed
9. Azzi Fudd, UConn-the Final Four MOP and former #1 ranked player in the 2021 class. Up to this point Azzi has been beset by injuries so the full display of her skills has been limited. That said, she needs to stay healthy, score, assist, steals and continue to lead the UConn team to garner enough attention away from the players higher up on this list. I do think she can and will achieve her first AA selection this year but National POY might be a bridge too far....we shall see. Big East titles and Top 2 seed.
10. Mikayla Blakes, Vanderbilt-a 3rd Team AA player as a freshman, she will be given a lot of time and opportunity to score and score often, but in the SEC, she will be overshadowed by the better teams listed above. This team has gotten better but 6th in the SEC and it will not be a top 16 seed.

Other players to watch-Fulwiley, LSU; Harmon, Texas; Kitts and Edwards, SC, Rice and Leger-Walker at UCLA and Audi Crooks ISU.

Thoughts?

I don’t disagree with any of what you’ve said. You seem to have laid it out with considerable care and insight. I paused at Blakes, but without Khamil supporting her, I think you have to be right. Vandy simply won’t go far enough.

But I’d like to make the case for Sarah and Azzi just as a thought experiment, even though I think your assessment is probably right.

For Azzi, in her sophomore year, after Paige went down for the season Geno challenged her to be “the best player in D1” every game and she accepted that. And she came out of the gate like gangbusters, practically on fire in the first two games against Texas and NC State. She cooled off slightly in the following 4 games until she was injured. But these were all solid games, including a head-to-head matchup with Clark that she won. The two of them were regularly mentioned as favorites for the NPoY. We don’t really know even now if Azzi can sustain that sort of production for an entire season. But if she can, and if UConn has a juggernaut of a season, she’ll be hard to ignore. Those are some big IFs, so really anything could happen.

For Sarah, the formula is a bit different. She’s coming off a tremendous season in which she was instrumental in a dominating NC run. Plus her game is very well-rounded and generally perceived to be so by all the pundits. That’s bound to garner a lot of attention. She loses a tremendous partner in Paige, but if she can drive the bus to another dominating season — for example, if they go undefeated and are ranked #1 for most if not all of the season — she’d also be hard to ignore. I’m just trying to picture Sarah with a ‘sophomore leap,’ and with an even deeper supporting cast with Serah and Blanca added on.

The oddest aspect of such a season could be that Azzi and Sarah turn out to be the chief rivals for the award and cancel each other out. Then Betts or Hidalgo could slide into it almost be default.

 

[GoChips20]

I’d lean Strong. UConn is a top-two team headed into next year and I think she’d go #1 in the draft over any current college player other than maybe Juju Watkins

 

[JellyBean]

I like Betts, Azzi, & Hidalgo Strong is right behind those two. The rest of the list is iffy. Some of the players will be in the conversation for a moment or two but it will come down to those three (Betts, Azzi, and Strong). I am going to throw a name out there just because, Aaliyah Chavez. If she develops into the player that many of us think she does, she will be in that POY conversation as well.

 

[YKCornelius]

I like Betts, Azzi, & Hidalgo Strong is right behind those two. The rest of the list is iffy. Some of the players will be in the conversation for a moment or two but it will come down to those three (Betts, Azzi, and Strong). I am going to throw a name out there just because, Aaliyah Chavez. If she develops into the player that many of us think she does, she will be in that POY conversation as well.

JellyBean, in order to be in the conversation for national POY, one had better be seen as the conference's POY. That's a very tall order for someone coming into the SEC. Maybe in a couple of years.

Heck, with Beers making All-SEC First Team last year, and Verhulst making Second Team, I think it would be a heck of an accomplishment for Chavez to make First Team as a frosh.

Hopefully things pan out well for the Sooners and Chavez earns some props for national FOY.

 

[ucbart]

I think Hidalgo's season will be very reminiscent of Odyssey Sims' season in 2014. She will definitely lead the nation in scoring, but ND is going to have a tough time next year. If ND somehow is better than we all think and finishes in the top 10 I could see Hidalgo winning.

 

[ucbart]

The list of realistic POY candidates is pretty limited and with Juju out for the bulk of the season, I wanted to outline my list of potential players for this award. Being great is not the only criteria, you have to have a media presence and be on a good team. In the history of the award, since 1983, only 2 players won the award on a team that did not reach at least a ONE final four during their career-Megan Gustafson and Sue Wicks (Rutgers 1988). While the vote takes place before the NCAAT, Gustafson's team was #2 seed as was Wicks Rutgers team. That said, here is my top ten and reasoning:
1. Lauren Betts, UCLA-a returning 1st Team AA on a returning Final Four squad. She will get plenty of media attention and without any real challenges in the Big 10, she has to be the front runner. Team prediction-Big 10 titles, Top 2 ranking by the time of the selection show.
2. Hannah Hidalgo, ND-also a returning 2 time 1st Team AA. However, ND will be not as talented this year and Hannah took a "media hit" with her spat with Miles and with Miles transferring out (along with many other players transferring). Top 4 ACC team, possible top 16 seed but...
3. Sarah Strong, UConn- a 2nd Team AA on the defending National Champion. She too will get plenty of media attention but as only a sophomore, while her all-around game should put her 1st, she will be relegated due to her second year standing. Big East titles, Top 2 Ranking by the time of the selection show.
4. Madison Booker, Texas-is a returning 2 time AA (one 1st team, one 2nd team) on a Final Four squad. Texas is a talented team who could return to the Final Four but the SEC is much deeper with SC, LSU and Oklahoma all chomping at the bit. Plus TN/Ole Miss squads who got a massive haul of Portal players or top recruits. My guess is 2nd in the SEC and top 6 seed.
5. Ta'Niya Latson, SC-is 3-time returning AA player (1-2nd team and 2-Honorable Mention) and is now on a strong team who will garner much need media attention for her. How well she fits into a more structured offense and a required defensive scheme will be interesting.
6. Olivia Miles, TCU-also a 3-time returning AA players (2-2nd team, 1-HM) who also transferred. The TCU team is reloading so I view their ceiling at the Elite 8 or Sweet 16 level. My guess is top SEC team, Top 3 seed.
7. Flau'Jae Johnson, LSU-a 3rd Team AA selection last year, she garners a lot of media attention (though I am not convinced she warrants it all). This team will be good but is behind SC and Texas but if they surprise and she is the leader, she could jump up. The other problem is she has Williams, Fulwiley and 3 elite 2025 recruits on this team and Johnson is not a ball-sharer so it will be interesting. My guess is 4th in SEC and top 12 seed
8. Raegan Beers, Oklahoma-a 2 -time returning AA player (1-3rd team, 1-HM) on a talented team with a noted high scoring offense. My guess is 3rd in the SEC and top 10 NCAAT seed
9. Azzi Fudd, UConn-the Final Four MOP and former #1 ranked player in the 2021 class. Up to this point Azzi has been beset by injuries so the full display of her skills has been limited. That said, she needs to stay healthy, score, assist, steals and continue to lead the UConn team to garner enough attention away from the players higher up on this list. I do think she can and will achieve her first AA selection this year but National POY might be a bridge too far....we shall see. Big East titles and Top 2 seed.
10. Mikayla Blakes, Vanderbilt-a 3rd Team AA player as a freshman, she will be given a lot of time and opportunity to score and score often, but in the SEC, she will be overshadowed by the better teams listed above. This team has gotten better but 6th in the SEC and it will not be a top 16 seed.

Other players to watch-Fulwiley, LSU; Harmon, Texas; Kitts and Edwards, SC, Rice and Leger-Walker at UCLA and Audi Crooks ISU.

Thoughts?

To me, Strong is clearly the best player in WCBB. Maya and Stewie won NPOY at UCONN as sophomores and if UCONN has the type of season that UCONN had in 2009 & 2014, she could very well win.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think Hidalgo's season will be very reminiscent of Odyssey Sims' season in 2014. She will definitely lead the nation in scoring, but ND is going to have a tough time next year. If ND somehow is better than we all think and finishes in the top 10 I could see Hidalgo winning.

Interesting observation. I wouldn’t be surprised if ND essentially becomes Hidalgo’s team next season. Whatever they achieve will be largely attributable to her. And this is a double-edged sword because she’ll be blamed for any failures as well as praised for the team’s success. If she can get them to a final four, she probably deserves the NPOY.

 

[Geew1992]

Interesting observation. I wouldn’t be surprised if ND essentially becomes Hidalgo’s team next season. Whatever they achieve will be largely attributable to her. And this is a double-edged sword because she’ll be blamed for any failures as well as praised for the team’s success. If she can get them to a final four, she probably deserves the NPOY.

Isn't the NPOY decided before the tournament? It's def decided before the final 4

 

[Charliebball]

I’d lean Strong. UConn is a top-two team headed into next year and I think she’d go #1 in the draft over any current college player other than maybe Juju Watkins

Strong is the best two way player in the college game right now but because of how unselfishly she plays and because of UConn's team- first mentality, her stats will never be as flashy as some of the other contenders.....her POY chances will largely depend on how far UConn gets next season.....

 

[Bone Dog]

Isn't the NPOY decided before the tournament? It's def decided before the final 4

There are several, and I don't know if they're all decided at the same time. Last season, the vote for the Naismith award took place on April 1 and the announcement was April 2. That's before the Final Four games and shortly after the last Elite Eight games. In my remark, I was only talking about deserving, not when the votes occur.

 

[JstVisiting]

The list of realistic POY candidates is pretty limited and with Juju out for the bulk of the season, I wanted to outline my list of potential players for this award. Being great is not the only criteria, you have to have a media presence and be on a good team. In the history of the award, since 1983, only 2 players won the award on a team that did not reach at least a ONE final four during their career-Megan Gustafson and Sue Wicks (Rutgers 1988). While the vote takes place before the NCAAT, Gustafson's team was #2 seed as was Wicks Rutgers team...

Thoughts?

In tiers, I'd go:

Betts
----------------
Fudd
Strong
Latson
----------------
Fulwiley
Booker
Hidalgo
Flau'jae
----------------
Field

I'd have Betts as a somewhat substantial favorite. If UCLA finishes in the top 3, it's probably hers.

Unless either Fudd or Strong really stamp UConn as "my team," I can't see either taking it from Betts without an undefeated season. Similarly, Latson likely needs numbers comparable to her production at Florida State and a 2020-24 team to beat season for the program.

I'm a big Flau'Jae fan. She should be LSU's best player on the way to an All American season. But that likely result leaves her as the best player on the 3rd or 4th best team in her conference and outside the serious candidates for NPOY. The less likely outcome has MiLaysia among the conference or even nation's leading scorers and LSU one of the pre-tournament favorites.

I doubt Booker will be SEC POY, let alone national. I don't think Notre Dame will be good enough for Hidalgo to win it, and some media may not vote for her even if the Irish are.

 

[oldhusky]

Quite a few factors at play here. Betts is one of the favorites. clear choice on her team which should be near the top. Sarah and Azzi have the team aspect covered, but they could split the Uconn vote. Nobody from LSU IMO because too many me first players splitting the press clippings and I don't think that team will be great.

Hildago and Miles both suffer from whatever tensions there were between them, Booker might get some, but may not be quite good enough, and Latson might be a possibility but will have a much more team oriented role and probably won't get enough minutes to put up super stats.

Overall much points to Betts, but if Strong is clearly the best player on the best team it could go her way.

 

[Geew1992]

Quite a few factors at play here. Betts is one of the favorites. clear choice on her team which should be near the top. Sarah and Azzi have the team aspect covered, but they could split the Uconn vote. Nobody from LSU IMO because too many me first players splitting the press clippings and I don't think that team will be great.

Hildago and Miles both suffer from whatever tensions there were between them, Booker might get some, but may not be quite good enough, and Latson might be a possibility but will have a much more team oriented role and probably won't get enough minutes to put up super stats.

Overall much points to Betts, but if Strong is clearly the best player on the best team it could go her way.

You do know miles and hildago aren’t playing together anymore? So I’m a little confused as to them suffering with whatever tensions there is.

 

[Bone Dog]

You do know miles and hildago aren’t playing together anymore? So I’m a little confused as to them suffering with whatever tensions there is.

I think he means reputational suffering. This is in part a popularity contest.

 

[oldhusky]

I think he means reputational suffering. This is in part a popularity contest.

Yep, I think when teammates have issues with each other, it reflects poorly on both of them, in the absence of specific information that places the blame clearly on just one of them.

It is also interesting that Uconn played with more than one point guard in the lineup many times and managed to make it work pretty well.
They sometimes even had three on the floor at the same time. It required adjustments of course, including taking the team's best player off the ball with Nika, Kaitlin or KK at the point, while Paige played 2-4.

KK is entering her third year, and this will be the first where she plays mostly at her natural position, but she didn't jump ship. I'm not saying it is a huge thing or disqualifies either player, but it does taint their chances somewhat IMO.

 

[CL82]

Overall much points to Betts, but if Strong is clearly the best player on the best team it could go her way.

I'm curious to see how much better Sarah is as a sophomore. Early in the year, at least, she seemed to defer to her teammates. I wouldn't expect that to happen this season. Also, the addition of Williams is going to take some of the attention of her in the front court. I think this could be a very good year for her.

 

[Alydar]

Strong never entered the national discussion until after the 1st SCar game. Early in the season she deferred a lot and once the conference games started her outstanding play was largely pooh-pooed outside of CT as being against weak competition. Then she had 6 defensive boards in the 1st period in Columbia.

Despite what she did in that game Strong was years behind Bueckers and Fudd in national media attention. I expect her to be the best player in the country this season. Given UConn's offensive power her pts/gm won't be among the national leaders but she'll be high in most other categories.

Bueckers won NPOY as a freshman, despite being outscored by Caitlan Clark.

 

[Bone Dog]

Bueckers won NPOY as a freshman, despite being outscored by Caitlan Clark.

The reason I recall being offered for picking Paige over Caitlin was Win Shares: 9.2 vs 6.8 (and Caitlin had a negative number for Defensive Win Shares). But you could look at other stats, like a/to, or BPM, or any of the efficiency numbers and come to a similar assessment. Just guessing here, but I think it isn't all that common for the scoring leader to win the NPOY in the same season.

 

[Alydar]

The reason I recall being offered for picking Paige over Caitlin was Win Shares: 9.2 vs 6.8 (and Caitlin had a negative number for Defensive Win Shares). But you could look at other stats, like a/to, or BPM, or any of the efficiency numbers and come to a similar assessment. Just guessing here, but I think it isn't all that common for the scoring leader to win the NPOY in the same season.

You are right, Bueckers had much better efficiency and I'm unsure of whether Clark was even her main competition. Who won the only POY that was closed to freshmen?

Whenever the media compares two stars the first thing they look at is scoring. In 2021 Bueckers was high up in a lot of national stats and she also came into college with a brighter light on her than Clark had plus UConn beat Iowa that year. Those are somewhat crappy reasons but that's the media for ya.
I don't think Strong will even lead her own team in pts/gm. but will in most of the other stats. I think the media will see those stats.

 

[Vowelguy]

Betts & Strong are front-runners at start of year
If Latson is best player on SC then she enters the conversation.

Hidalgo starts with a debit over whatever happened at ND.

 

[Bone Dog]

I don't think Strong will even lead her own team in pts/gm. but will in most of the other stats. I think the media will see those stats.

You may be right about the points. My guess is Azzi Serah and Sarah will probably each average just north of 16 pts/gm. Maybe one of them approaches 20 pts. I think someone can win the NPOY while averaging under 20 points, especially if they put up other big numbers. That scenario seems pretty descriptive of Sarah.

For Azzi, it’s a different story. She has never gotten big assist or rebound numbers and her turnover numbers have not been nearly as good as Paige’s. Her path to a possible NPOY will have to come from putting up big scoring numbers. If she is perceived as the driver of the offense, the bucket-getter like Paige against Oklahoma, and maybe puts up efficient numbers, like 50/40/90, she could have a shot. The numbers she put up against SC (twice) and UCLA are excellent examples. It’s not about scoring 30+ every night. She only scored 19 pts against UCLA, but all in the first half, and when she was done, that game was effectively over. This has been a pattern throughout her career, big games decided by eruptions of scoring that happen in a single quarter.