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Message: [QUOTE="RUSS56, post: 2138023, member: 7708"] The road to the Finals was paved with land mines, we saw a lot of upsets, that saw SC, and Oregon breaking through, but in the end NC and Gonzaga, the nation`s best two teams survived. It is going to come down to a few things, and here is how I see it. NC has for the most part dominated teams on the glass, and thrive on 2nd chance opportunities, but Gonzaga has size and athleticism, and has been out-rebounded just 6 times all season. They have been out-rebounded by 7 just 1 time, and won by 27. NC is 13-3 ATS when they have a rebound margin of 12 or more, where they are also 17-0 SU. When the rebound margin is less than 12, Carolina is 4-14-2 ATS, and 13-7 SU. You can see how important this stat is to Carolina. Carolina does not fare well when they have an off shooting night, as they are 5-5 SU and 1-9 ATS when they shoot 42% or less, and Gonzaga has only allowed 7 teams to shoot better than 42% against them all season. Gonzaga has out-shot every team they have played against this season, and the Heels are 4-12 ATS when they are out-shot by their opponent. Gonzaga certainly had the easier schedule, but is 9-0 SU vs power-conferences, if you include 1-0 vs the Big East. So these are the critical areas for NC, and Gonzaga matches up well in those areas, but there is another big area to reveal. There is no question Meeks, Jackson, and Barry are the 3 best players for NC. The player in that trio has had the greatest impact win or lose is Barry. You can even add Hicks to the mix. Here are those 4 players season average, and also their average when they fail to cover: Season average first followed by average in ATS losses, followed by the difference: Jackson 18.3 18.1 -0.2 Berry 14.5 10.6 -3.9**** Meeks 11.7 12.7 -1.0 Hicks 10.9 11.8 -0.9 As you can see Joel Barry is by far the key here, as the other 3 have averages that basically are even cover or not, but Carolina struggles considerably when Barry has an off scoring night. That is important because he is hobbled right now with 2 bad ankles, and after playing poorly the last 2 games, not able to explode, or elevate on 3`s, he has been 6-26 from the field, and 2-13 from deep. They need scoring from Barry as you see from above, and after playing 48 hours ago on bad ankles, they can`t be any better tonight, and may be worse. This looks like a great spot for Gonzaga, as all the numbers that Carolina needs to work in their favor, show plenty of resistance from the other side. Make the play on Gonzaga. [/QUOTE]

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